I think this is a very good play... getting + money with 4 big favs (PIT line was up to -6.5 before dropping)
A lot of people are thinking that NYJ are gonna pull the upset, but who knows... PIT has been on fire lately. But that is the only one I think you need to be concerned with.
GL
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I think this is a very good play... getting + money with 4 big favs (PIT line was up to -6.5 before dropping)
A lot of people are thinking that NYJ are gonna pull the upset, but who knows... PIT has been on fire lately. But that is the only one I think you need to be concerned with.
i have the steelers too in 2 parlays but i just wonder ummm.. how did they lose to the BUCS!?!? and then somehow smash the colts and ravens!!!! I WORRY
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i have the steelers too in 2 parlays but i just wonder ummm.. how did they lose to the BUCS!?!? and then somehow smash the colts and ravens!!!! I WORRY
The Broncos are favored by about 11 points. An 11 point favorite wins about 81% of the time.
The Ravens are favored by about 10 points. A 10 point favorite wins about 79% of the time.
The Seahawks are favored by about 9 points. A 9 point favorite wins about 77% of the time.
The Steelers are favored by about 4 points. A 4 point favorite wins about 63% of the time.
My source: https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/ (Estimated probability column.)
Since each event is independent, the chances of ALL FOUR teams winning is the product of all four percentages. .81 x .79 x .77 x .63 = ..3104... or about 31%.
That's it. That's the reality, folks.
Thus, on the average, you can expect that approximately 31 times out of 100 this bet will win, and approximately 69 times out of 100 it will lose.
31 times you will win $250 for a total profit of $7,750 (31 x 250) 69 times you will lose $150 for a total loss of $10,350 (69 x -150) Your net after 100 games is -$2,600.00.
Note that even if ALL FOUR teams each had a win percentage of .80, the
odds of all four teams winning are only 41%. (.80 x .80 x .80 x .80 =
.4096)
Year after year I see parlays posted like this, legs with many heavy favorites. And each year they "look good." They always look good! You just don't expect the heavy favorite to lose! And yet as we all know, each year heavy favorites do lose.
Bets like this are losing propositions, in the long run. The payout you receive is never high enough.
Good luck with your parlay.
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Here are my thoughts.
The Broncos are favored by about 11 points. An 11 point favorite wins about 81% of the time.
The Ravens are favored by about 10 points. A 10 point favorite wins about 79% of the time.
The Seahawks are favored by about 9 points. A 9 point favorite wins about 77% of the time.
The Steelers are favored by about 4 points. A 4 point favorite wins about 63% of the time.
My source: https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/ (Estimated probability column.)
Since each event is independent, the chances of ALL FOUR teams winning is the product of all four percentages. .81 x .79 x .77 x .63 = ..3104... or about 31%.
That's it. That's the reality, folks.
Thus, on the average, you can expect that approximately 31 times out of 100 this bet will win, and approximately 69 times out of 100 it will lose.
31 times you will win $250 for a total profit of $7,750 (31 x 250) 69 times you will lose $150 for a total loss of $10,350 (69 x -150) Your net after 100 games is -$2,600.00.
Note that even if ALL FOUR teams each had a win percentage of .80, the
odds of all four teams winning are only 41%. (.80 x .80 x .80 x .80 =
.4096)
Year after year I see parlays posted like this, legs with many heavy favorites. And each year they "look good." They always look good! You just don't expect the heavy favorite to lose! And yet as we all know, each year heavy favorites do lose.
Bets like this are losing propositions, in the long run. The payout you receive is never high enough.
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