*** 4 Unit Play of the Week (3-0 +12 Units) Write Up and Rest of the Card***

Adding:

 

 

- Alot of people are saying this line doesn't make sense and that Carolina should be favored.  It appears to me that the oddsmakers are pegging them as two points better than ATL, and ATL would most likely be pushing a field goal here if they hadn't lost to Denver last week.  Alot of people are using that loss as a basis for fading ATL this week, and I am going to disagree with them.

 

 

- An interesting stat in my favor here is ATL is averaging almost 30 points per game at home while Jake the MisTake and company are putting up a less than world beating 14 on the road.  For all of the talk about Carolina being a great rushing offense they are averaging less than 100 yards per game on the road, while ATL is putting up a jarring 160 at home.  Statistically overall Carolina has a better rush defense but the home/away stat favors ATL to the tune of 20 less Rush Yards per game allowed.  A stat against me is ATL is giving up almost 260 yards through the air in their own venue, a stat that is largely skewed by over 200 garbage time yards Drew Brees put up in almost one quarter a few weeks back.

 

Statistically, ATL has a slight edge.

 

 

1. The media and some bettors have been quick to take the bloom off of Matt Ryan's rose after the loss to Denver last week.  I'm not putting alot of stock into it as they are a young team that I think got caught looking ahead, as this game is of massive importance to them.  A loss to Carolina means they fall back three games record wise and is essentially 4 as it would mean a Carolina season sweep.  A win puts them one game back.  Massive difference.  You could say that Carolina has equal motivation to eliminate the Falcons as well, but I'm giving the home team the slight edge in this category.

 

2. Carolina often does not play well in Domes.  They played like absolute shit versus Minnesota in the Homer Dome earlier this year, and actually lost to Gus Frerrote making his first start.  They have played exactly one game on turf this year as well.  Conversely Atlanta has played like a machine, at least on offense at home, and has shown toughness by beating Green Bay in Lambeau and pretty much getting moosed in Philly (at least the point spread did).

 

3. Carolina has a decent defense but Atlanta has plenty of weapons that can put up points in a hurry.  Neither Ken Lucas nor Chris Gamble has the speed to run with Roddy White, and Norwood is always a threat in 3rd down situations and on screens.  I don't expect Turner to put up 150 yards here but he should have enough success to keep Fox from blitzing constantly and may set up play action well for Ryan.

 

4. Matt Ryan is a better QB than Jake Delhomme, period.  Look, I faded Ryan a couple of times because of his rookie status and quickly found out the guy is completly legit.  He is everything Delhomme is not: cool under pressure and a solid downfield passer.  Delhomme is a maddeningly inconsistent QB who loses his cool in tight spots, and quite frankly would be below average without a solid run game.  Delhomme quickly goes in the tank when things don't go well and if Abraham decides to show up he should be able to frustrate Jake into screaming at his lineman.

 

 

Make no mistake that Atlanta's season is one the line here.  Carolina has ripped off 4 in a row with little fan fare but Im banking that The Falcons come out fired up, and that Ryan will outplay Delhomme, which is pretty much what you need in a pick em like game.  Big homefield and surface edge for Atlanta and I see enough big plays here to carry them to a W.

 

GL.

Adding

 

 

This one is going to be shorter, because there are a only a couple of reasons I like this one so much but they are very good ones.  I'm not basing this one on stats but lets post a few just to solidify the argument.

 

 

The Ravens are allowing less than 200 yards per game at home, almost fewer than 10 points, and fewer than 60 rushing yards.  They are averaging an eye popping 176 yards per game on the ground at home as well.  It is worth noting that Philly's offense has statistically performed better on the road, largely due to bloodlettings against hapless Seattle and San Francisco, and the legendary shootout against Dallas on Monday night earlier in the season.

 

 

1. There is absolutely no way I am going against a pissed off Ray Lewis and Baltimore defense.  No Chance.  The Giants manhandled a very proud and physical defense last week.  For a team like Baltimore that prides itself in de-cleating and intimidating opponents, to get trucked like that is a massive blow to their pride.  There is no one in the NFL more prideful than Ray Lewis, and its not even close.  Look what happened after they got shredded by Manning in the Oil Field:  4 straight victories, none of which were closer than 10 points.   Philly has a strong defense as well and I don't expect Flacco to have a field day but all we need is pretty much a straight up win here.

 

2. Philadelphia's offense does not match up well vs the Ravens.  First of all, Philly's offense is not 1/10th as Phyiscal as New York.  Maybe with Shaun Anderws it would go up a bit but this is a West Coast team built completly around the pass.  Westbrook is banged up and will most likely be at 75% tops, and considering he is their offense this doesn't bode well.  The Eagles have little chance of running the ball and will have to rely almost completly on screens, swings, and deep balls, which is not going to work versus a well disciplined linebacking and secondary group.  Does anyone here think that Desean Jackson, Hank Baskett, and Kevin Curtis are going to have success in the middle with a pissed off 250 pound Maniac just waiting to jack them up on crossing patterns?  doubtful.  A finesse team like Philly is tailor made to get broken in half by a manical and tough as nails defense like Baltimore has.

 

3. Baltimore is coming home after playing 5 out of 6 games on the road (a hellish scheduling mix up) while Philly is on back to back road jaunts and should have lost to the hapless Bengals last week.  Offensively, Baltimore has had little trouble running the ball and while Philly does have a solid run defense, I can see Baltimore pounding them into submission here (theyll have to to keep Jim Johnson from unleashing blitzes on Flacco).  Small worry here about the blitz creating Flacco turnovers.

 

 

Philly is in a bit of a flux now, as McNabb apparently doesnt know overtime rules, fans are calling for Reid's head, and their best player is hobbled.  Add in the fact that Reid is absolutely TERRIBLE in close games, the fact that Ray Lewis is probably capable of killing again (ok, bad joke), and Baltimore with plenty to play for I see this as at least a touchdown victory for the Ravens.

 

GL

 

Phil - indeed its going to be a shitty night, and I don't have enormous faith in Roethlisburger.  However, most of Ben's struggles can be directly attested to the pass blocking of their line.  CIncy doesnt pose much of a threat defensviely and Ben can be money when he has time.  Most of my bet is based on FitzPatrick and a banged up offensive line versus Pitts elite defense.  IMO its the biggest mismatch on the board this week.  GL

 

Pele - glad to hear it my friend.  It was indeed a nail biter as Tampa's Red Zone offense was atrocious.  Luckily, the bet was a fade of Brad Childress and he came through for us, almost single-handedly losing the game for the VIkings with atrociouis decisions on 4th down, only giving Peterson the ball 5 times in the second half, and keeping him on the sidelines during their last possession

 

Ok Mr Oddsmaker and all of you wise guys loading up on Detroit, I'm biting, hook, line, and sinker.

 

 

I was going to talk myself out of this but if I can get this in touchdown territory I feel like I'm staring a gift in the face.  I know thats what "they" want me to think but I really do not care. 

 

- If I somehow lose this game, please feel free to call me a square, a sucker, a moron, an idiot, whatever.  I must be missing something here.  Ok, lets identify the moose factors for what I am missing:

 

 

- I am really trying to figure out how Detroit is a live dog here as the line has dropped 1 and a half points in their favor and is now sitting in teaser territory.

 

- Could it be that Detroit has copied Tampa's Cover 2 because they have 5 former Bucs on the defense and two former Tampa Bay coaches, creating a big familiarity matchup for Detroit?  Maybe. but here's why I don't care: The only guy on that defense who is notable from the former Bucs is Brian Kelly, who has been getting torched this season.

 

- Could it be that Tampa plays like horseshit on the road?  Maybe, although they are 2-1 under Garcia on the road, and I read a piece where the undisputed leader of the team, Derrick Brooks, was talking about how they overlooked Detroit last time and its not going to happen again.

 

- Is it because people are thinking it would be fitting for the Lions to beat the Bucs to avoid having a winless season and going down in history with the same exact franchise.  No.

 

- The only moose factor I worry about is that Tampa has three big divsional games on deck.  I am going to trust Gruden that they will be ready to play.

 

So with that, lets move past all of this pseduo intellectual going against the grain searching for obscure reasons to bet the Lions crap and get to the issues that matter: the matchups on the field and how epicly, historically bad Detroit is at home.

 

 

Detroit is losing their home games by an average score of 36-16.  Yes, they played Green Bay tough for three quarters until the inevitable fold game and Green Bay put up 3 TDs (2 defensive) inside of 3 minutes.  This number bears importance:  DETROIT IS LOSING BY 20 PPG at home.  Who is going to come out and support this team?  They can't show up just to have the satisfaction of making "Fire Millen" signs anymore.  Detroit has Zero homefield advantage, absolutely Zero.

 

On top of this, Detroit is giving up over 400 yards per game, at home.  This includes 300 passing yards allowed, and their offense on the other side is rushing for less than 70 yards per game. 

 

For what its worth, Tampa's Defense statistically is much worse on the road, putting that in here for fairness.  Still don't care.  400 yards a game?  400?  How does this defensive coordinator have a job?

 

 

- As I've said before there are two teams that run a Cover 2 scheme here and only one has a clue how to run it.  Tampa's Cover 2 is designed to take away the big play and Force the quarterback to make smart, sound, accurate decisions in the passing game and requires them to beat them underneath because the deep ball is taken away.  Enter Daunte Culpepper: quite possibly one of the worst decision making quarterbacks in NFL history.  This guy couldn't read a hot route if it slapped him in the face.  Daunte used to be good at two things: running and throwing deep, and he can no longer run and has little chance of getting deep unless Johnson makes some acrobatic plays.  Detroit has a porous run game, and Rudy Johnson isnt going to exactly scare Tampa so this falls on Daunte to manage a smart game against a well coached and overall very strong defense.  MISMATCH.

 

- On the other side, I'm almost convinced that the Detroit defense couldn't stop the Vanderbilt Commodores.  They are getting absolutley blasted at home, and their weak Cover 2 is set up to be ruthlessly picked apart by Garcia, who thrives in making plays underneath and improvising.  In short, Detroits scheme has a weakness vs quarterbacks with Garcia's makeup, and thats if they actually field an NFL defense.  Garcia moved the ball at will versus Minnesota who also runs the Cover 2, but the Vikings kept it close because they actually have playmakers on that side of the ball and stepped up in the Red Zone.

 

 

There are only two things here that can stop a Tampa Rout.  One is if they indeed are looking ahead and lay a first class rotten egg in this one.  If so, Im going to be pissed that I fell into it.  The other is if their atrocious Red Zone play keeps up, and Detroit gets lucky on Special teams or Daunte somehow makes a big play to cover the line.  One of my biggest wins of the year was pounding Jax vs Detroit and Jax walked away by almost 30+.  Tampa is as good if not better than any team that has obliterated Detroit at home this year.

 

GL. 

thanks for the write-ups. need all the good advice can get way luck has been. love the pats in this one as well. revenge factor and am sure belichek has had plenty of time to figure out the wild cat and make it look like the kitty cat. example of luck, i bet bengals then found this thread and read all info in pitt favor. double digit spread scared me

bighans.... really like the write ups and agree on most picks. but i'll be very surprised if the G Men let up in this spot. i see them in a ZONE right now and see them over poering this cardinal team. i think they will man handle them. They just ran for over 200 yards against the Ravens. Wow, 200 yards against the ravens (did i just say that) with or without jacobs i see the giants running wild on zona and the g mens pass rush will dominate. love the other plays though and best of luck.

this is the NFL though and on any given sunday we all know what could happen.

 

good luck everyone.

Let's hand it to BigHans everyone. this guy is taking a lot of his time to help everyone. Love to see it and  really appreciate it.

 

NJ,

 

I agree with you on how the Giants may manhandle them physically and thats my biggest fear.  As a Cowboys fan I hate the Giants by default, but I highly respect them because they are everything my team isnt: a well disciplined, man's man team that wins game through fundamentals and brute force.  I'm just hoping Zona can hang and I'm thinking with their performance at home they will.

 

Appreciate the compliment too, I don't know if I'll always have time to write this much, but I'll try (My boss was out of the office this week)

 

Best of luck fellas, might have a few more.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Might have a few more, there are some brutally ugly games on this card.  Might play the Vikes/Jags game waiting to see if Williams' are suspended.  Will definetly be doing another moneyline parlay with the a Monday night team involved to go for a middle. 

 

Adding this one: Note - this is mostly a degenerate pick, and I'm mostly playing it to have action on the biggest game of the week.  There, I admit it, I'm a degenerate.  Anyway, this play is probably going to be unpopular as I'm seeing almost everyone on this board on the Jets, and I was thinking to myself that I need to pick another Dog because I'm rolling with alot of Faves this week but the more I look at this game the more I like Tennessee.

 

 

 

Small play for me, and I see alot of guys unloading on the Jets, so if I lose it won't be the end of the world and will be happy for you guys.

 

Anyway, my opinions on this game:

 

 

- Tennessee is 9-1 ATS and the one they did lose was to a hook.  They have also outscored 8 out of 10 teams this year by more than 5 points, including all but one at home which was the aforementioned ATS loss.

 

- The Jets are also relatively strong ATS and have won 6 out of their last 7 straight up, a very impressive run for a team I thought was destined to go 8-8.

 

- Tennessee is outscoring their home opponents by an average of ten points while the Jets are actually being outscored on the road, although their total points against/versus stat has a wide differntial thanks to routs of Arizona and St Louis in East Rutherford.  The Jets are also giving up over 350 yards on the road, a small black mark on an otherwise solid defense this year.

 

No real overwhelming statistical strength here, except for the Titans' brilliant ATS record.

 

 

- Living in Minnesota, you have two choices unless you have Sunday ticket or go to a sports bar: If the Vikings aren't playing the same time as the Packers, the Packers are on, period.  I have watched at least 100 games played by Favre, and gleaning from a long library of memories and histroy, I am going to fade him in this spot.  I won't take anything away from Favre as he is playing brilliantly and is a top 5 all time QB, but it is rare where he puts together a string of strong games without throwing a clunker in between.  I realize this isnt an overwhelming case and its purely my opinion, but I think Favre has a less than stellar performance here, for a couple of reasons:

 

1.  Everybody knows Favre is turnover prone, in fact, he may have been even worse when he was in his prime as his arrogance was even higher than and he truely believed he could make every throw.  That mentality is still there but has been reigned in somewhat as the Jets are running the ball well.  However, in a big game Gunslinger Brett comes out,and this is a huge game as everyone knows.  Gunslinger Brett is not a good matchup versus a high pressure and ball-hawking defense like Tennessee.  If Favre gets through this game without at least two turnovers I will be very surpirsed and will tip my hat to him.  I don't see it happening however.

 

2. The last thing the Titans needed was to get stronger on defense, which is what is going to happen when Van Den Bosch returns this week.  Ferguson is slowly becoming a strong LT but I can see Van Den Bosch getting by him a few times and putting pressure on Favre, and since Favre will take a bullet before throwing the ball away I can see this as a direct correlation to a turnover or two.  Mangold is a solid center but I don't think he is going to be able to handle Haynesworth.

 

3. For the Favre scenario, I don't see the Jets having much success running the ball against the Titans brick wall defense, which will take away play action and will lead to Favre chucking it 30 plus times, which percentage wise does not bode well in his favor in terms of avoiding turnovers.

 

 

- I'm not taking anything away from the Jets as they had an impressive victory over the Pats last week and routed Arizona earlier this year.  At the same time a portion of their latest victories have included Cincy, KC, St Louis, and a reeling Buffalo squad, not to mention a SU loss to Oakland on the road. The Titans haven't exactly played a list of juggernauts either, for fairness sake.

 

- I used to love to fade Kerry Collins but he has played worlds better than I could have ever anticipated.  This has been helped largely due to their lights out running game, which very well could struggle this week against Jenkins, Ellis, and Pace.  I don't expect Lendale White to be any factor but I think the Jets Run D is based more on power than speed and I can see Chris Johnson potentially having a big day.  (I also realize the turnover argument for Favre can also be used on Collins, for fairness sake).

 

 

This line opened at 4 and has been bet up to 5 and is at 5.5 in some places.  At the same time 60% of the bets are the Jets so this could be some small reverse line movement.  This isnt my play of the week by any means and as I mentioned before is a degnerete bet, but I wanted to post a few thoughts for people to consider before just hammering the Jets.

 

GL

 

 

Your picks look good GL!

Miami historically plays NE tough at home. I think Miami is gonna take this one.

Like the plays.  A couple that scare me are AZ +3.5 and Tenn -5.  I have been banking on AZ and Tenn all year, but these games are different.  And beleive me, I'm an AZ default fan with season tickets.  So, AZ will be a tough game for me to play.

 

With AZ, their success soley depends on how well they protect Warner.  Giants come in with the 2nd best pass D and 31 sacks.  They have the ability to get to the QB while still keeping people back to defend the pass.  And half the time, when they are not getting sacks, they are nocking down or pressuring the QB.

 

Now, Tenn, there is one factor that scares me with this one and it is good old number 4.  And giving 5 points to him is very dangerous.  If Tennessee had an explosive offense, I would think otherwise, however, they do not and I see number 4 keeping it close, very close.

 

Either way, I am probably going to lay off both, but I will be at the game and hoping the Cards pull the upset.  So, good luck bro!!!

giants scare me in this game. i still remember that giants browns game, which leads me to leave this game alone. to many factors.  cards are good at home though very good.