Adding this one: Note - this is mostly a degenerate pick, and I'm mostly playing it to have action on the biggest game of the week. There, I admit it, I'm a degenerate. Anyway, this play is probably going to be unpopular as I'm seeing almost everyone on this board on the Jets, and I was thinking to myself that I need to pick another Dog because I'm rolling with alot of Faves this week but the more I look at this game the more I like Tennessee.
Playing
Tennessee -5 Over New York Jets 1 Unit
Small play for me, and I see alot of guys unloading on the Jets, so if I lose it won't be the end of the world and will be happy for you guys.
Anyway, my opinions on this game:
Stats:
- Tennessee is 9-1 ATS and the one they did lose was to a hook. They have also outscored 8 out of 10 teams this year by more than 5 points, including all but one at home which was the aforementioned ATS loss.
- The Jets are also relatively strong ATS and have won 6 out of their last 7 straight up, a very impressive run for a team I thought was destined to go 8-8.
- Tennessee is outscoring their home opponents by an average of ten points while the Jets are actually being outscored on the road, although their total points against/versus stat has a wide differntial thanks to routs of Arizona and St Louis in East Rutherford. The Jets are also giving up over 350 yards on the road, a small black mark on an otherwise solid defense this year.
No real overwhelming statistical strength here, except for the Titans' brilliant ATS record.
Situational Factors and Reasons I like the Titans:
- Living in Minnesota, you have two choices unless you have Sunday ticket or go to a sports bar: If the Vikings aren't playing the same time as the Packers, the Packers are on, period. I have watched at least 100 games played by Favre, and gleaning from a long library of memories and histroy, I am going to fade him in this spot. I won't take anything away from Favre as he is playing brilliantly and is a top 5 all time QB, but it is rare where he puts together a string of strong games without throwing a clunker in between. I realize this isnt an overwhelming case and its purely my opinion, but I think Favre has a less than stellar performance here, for a couple of reasons:
1. Everybody knows Favre is turnover prone, in fact, he may have been even worse when he was in his prime as his arrogance was even higher than and he truely believed he could make every throw. That mentality is still there but has been reigned in somewhat as the Jets are running the ball well. However, in a big game Gunslinger Brett comes out,and this is a huge game as everyone knows. Gunslinger Brett is not a good matchup versus a high pressure and ball-hawking defense like Tennessee. If Favre gets through this game without at least two turnovers I will be very surpirsed and will tip my hat to him. I don't see it happening however.
2. The last thing the Titans needed was to get stronger on defense, which is what is going to happen when Van Den Bosch returns this week. Ferguson is slowly becoming a strong LT but I can see Van Den Bosch getting by him a few times and putting pressure on Favre, and since Favre will take a bullet before throwing the ball away I can see this as a direct correlation to a turnover or two. Mangold is a solid center but I don't think he is going to be able to handle Haynesworth.
3. For the Favre scenario, I don't see the Jets having much success running the ball against the Titans brick wall defense, which will take away play action and will lead to Favre chucking it 30 plus times, which percentage wise does not bode well in his favor in terms of avoiding turnovers.
Other Factors:
- I'm not taking anything away from the Jets as they had an impressive victory over the Pats last week and routed Arizona earlier this year. At the same time a portion of their latest victories have included Cincy, KC, St Louis, and a reeling Buffalo squad, not to mention a SU loss to Oakland on the road. The Titans haven't exactly played a list of juggernauts either, for fairness sake.
- I used to love to fade Kerry Collins but he has played worlds better than I could have ever anticipated. This has been helped largely due to their lights out running game, which very well could struggle this week against Jenkins, Ellis, and Pace. I don't expect Lendale White to be any factor but I think the Jets Run D is based more on power than speed and I can see Chris Johnson potentially having a big day. (I also realize the turnover argument for Favre can also be used on Collins, for fairness sake).
Bottom Line:
This line opened at 4 and has been bet up to 5 and is at 5.5 in some places. At the same time 60% of the bets are the Jets so this could be some small reverse line movement. This isnt my play of the week by any means and as I mentioned before is a degnerete bet, but I wanted to post a few thoughts for people to consider before just hammering the Jets.
GL
in the process even though that Tampa Bay game was really a nail biter. 
)
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