A week 12 look ahead bet you shouldn't fear

I'm taking the Panthers +11.5 and a little on the ML +490

They'll be at home vs the Chiefs. Hence the line. But I'm seeing it as one of the best spots of the year.

Let's look at what the Chiefs have been through since their bye in week 6, all while holding themselves undefeated. 

They won @ SF by 10, covering as short dogs.

They won @ Vegas(divisional game) by 7, not covering the 10 pts.

Then back at home vs the Bucs, they were taken into OT and won by 6, not covering the 9.

Staying at home vs the another divisional team, they basically got beaten by the Broncos. Only a blocked FG at the end allowed them to hold the 2 pt lead and win, but they didn't cover the 7.5.

This week, they travel to Buffalo. Vs a team that hates them with a passion, a team that loses to them in the most grueling and important games. And fear not, this will be another one. The Chiefs will put the upmost effort into this game.

Whether they win or lose vs the Bills, I really don't care. Even though the result will swing this line slightly up or down. I just want to know where the fuck do they find any motivation to get up for the Panthers after this stretch?

Also, they will have the Raiders on deck at home following this game, a possible look ahead to a divisional team.

Only the Chiefs can sustain injuries this week, as the Panthers are on a bye. Segue...

The Panthers are a terrible team, we all know that. No one cares about bad teams or looks into them as much as others. What I do know is that they've won b2b games. Doesn't matter vs who, they won and have to be feeling better than they have in a long time. Both those wins were at home, and now they're on a bye this week.

They've been at home for the entire month of November by the time the Chiefs come to town.

I'm telling you guys right now, if you handicap this game by using any metric, stats, analytics or models, you're dead in the water and missing the point.

The Chiefs are 3-7 ats last 10 games laying 11 or more points. They are 0-4 ats laying 11 or more points when on the road. 

$330 to win $300 on the Panthers +11.5

$70 to win $343 on the Panthers ML(+490)

I've lost $ on much worse bets than this one in my lifetime. 

Good Luck 

@undermysac

 Very nice Angle...will hold my nose and play this one also....

This definitely looks to be a sweet spot. I like the spread, but not sure about the ML. I'd like to think the Chiefs want to stay unbeaten for as long as they can. And they could probably still win this game while playing half-assed. GL with this one. 

@undermysac

 Great post!

Although the Raiders are terrible,  recall the Chiefs took a rare home loss to them last year. 

Perhaps all the more reason to sleep through the Panthers...  

Absolutely disgusting, I love it

i sit here delighted. and salute your bravery. 

I like it good luck

@undermysac

 Bet the Panthers spread also early . Thought this was the best bet on the board ..first look ..the way this season has been going ...This usually doesnt end well....bol 

@undermysac

Enjoyed your writeup and I wish that other posters would do the same with their picks. Otherwise picks without reasons are useless IMO. 

Thanks all, hopefully it pans out.

Betonline has dropped to 10.5, DK still hanging 11.5

Good Luck to whoever is on board 

At the same time I'm not forcing anyone on board, play at your own risk.

On the contrary my friend, I think that the bravery is laying 11 with kc here. And God forbid laying -675 in a parlay or even teasing. 

I suspect that KC will be the most popular survivor pick of the week as well.

Kudos for taking the time & effort to post all that!

@undermysac

 Can’t take Car ml+490cuz Asian balls are too small. Bol next week bets Sac

@undermysac

 You made a football bet on a team on their bye week. Guess there’s nothing wrong about being first. 

Carolina is an old system play we follow, home team off a bye getting 6 or more points 

Love the write up

My balls are small too so I'll tail you by taking the team total over. 

Due theory is also a fallacy.  KC knows how to win games.  They are not as dynamic like other teams that blow teams out of the ball park and dominating the NFL.   KC gotta lose their first game somehow so the hungry guy will continue to chase that till he wins but at what cost?  

@undermysac

 Didn’t they play in Germani last game ? 
so not 2 SU win at home . Correct me if I’m wrong . Thanks 

Yea good catch, it was in Germany 

GL 

@undermysac

 I think this bet looks better tonight. Down to 10.5

@undermysac

 Chiefs off their first lose vs the worst team in the league. No sir!