I'm taking the Panthers +11.5 and a little on the ML +490
They'll be at home vs the Chiefs. Hence the line. But I'm seeing it as one of the best spots of the year.
Let's look at what the Chiefs have been through since their bye in week 6, all while holding themselves undefeated.
They won @ SF by 10, covering as short dogs.
They won @ Vegas(divisional game) by 7, not covering the 10 pts.
Then back at home vs the Bucs, they were taken into OT and won by 6, not covering the 9.
Staying at home vs the another divisional team, they basically got beaten by the Broncos. Only a blocked FG at the end allowed them to hold the 2 pt lead and win, but they didn't cover the 7.5.
This week, they travel to Buffalo. Vs a team that hates them with a passion, a team that loses to them in the most grueling and important games. And fear not, this will be another one. The Chiefs will put the upmost effort into this game.
Whether they win or lose vs the Bills, I really don't care. Even though the result will swing this line slightly up or down. I just want to know where the fuck do they find any motivation to get up for the Panthers after this stretch?
Also, they will have the Raiders on deck at home following this game, a possible look ahead to a divisional team.
Only the Chiefs can sustain injuries this week, as the Panthers are on a bye. Segue...
The Panthers are a terrible team, we all know that. No one cares about bad teams or looks into them as much as others. What I do know is that they've won b2b games. Doesn't matter vs who, they won and have to be feeling better than they have in a long time. Both those wins were at home, and now they're on a bye this week.
They've been at home for the entire month of November by the time the Chiefs come to town.
I'm telling you guys right now, if you handicap this game by using any metric, stats, analytics or models, you're dead in the water and missing the point.
The Chiefs are 3-7 ats last 10 games laying 11 or more points. They are 0-4 ats laying 11 or more points when on the road.
$330 to win $300 on the Panthers +11.5
$70 to win $343 on the Panthers ML(+490)
I've lost $ on much worse bets than this one in my lifetime.
Good Luck
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