A week 12 look ahead bet you shouldn't fear

The Chiefs physically and mentally are right where we want them to be, imo.

Yea i like this better now that chiefs lost. They dont have the pressure to perform as highly to chase that perfect season now. The seal is broken, might get a sleep walking effort. I think I like 1st half carolina the best

Here we go, play of the week.  Excited and rooting for you.

This guy is a man of honor and integrity a true gentleman of the highest of high order and will blindly tail this play. 

Sumbitch better cash. 

Cle, Dal, NYG, and probably even LV, Jax & Ten are all worse than Car right now.  Car has some energy now with Bryce playing better than before.

I dont really see a SU win here since Car defense is still a major weak spot, but getting 11 against a team beat up by the Bills and on b2b road games is pretty good.

Car isnt the "walking dead" like some of the aforementioned bad teams.  Winning their last two and giving some good effort (even against bad teams) shows they arent going to lie down like Dallas didn last night

Problem for Carolina is the KC defense, which is pretty damn good, how are they going to score? They're going to need to win the TO battle and get great special teams play, the result of which would be great field position for the Panthers. If those things don't happen, it'll be a long day for them because Mahomes and company will put up at least 21 points at a minimum. Carolina will need at least 14 points to have a shot to cover IMO, and that won't come easily. GL Sac!

Tasty  taking the points and going over as well 

It's all about their effort. If their not filling their gaps, tackling, and covering with the intensity that they normally do, you'll see a different outcome. 

If I'm wrong then I'm wrong. KC could come out lazer focused who knows.

But I still have 11.5 points in my pocket at any rate.

@RenoRealtor

 I don't think the panthers have that distinction any longer. Jax, jets and cowpokes vying for that title.

Imma hop on that wager. Not betting the ranch, but it's worth  a unit, maybe half on the ML

They will score.  Denver and LV offenses arent awesome and they scored on KC.  Thielen is back for Carolina too to help move the ball.  They arent gonna hang 30 like Buffalo did or 24 like TB did, but they will score.  I think 24-16 KC isnt unthinkable.  Carolina has a good FG kicker too. 

@undermysac

 think you preferred a kc win vs buff...woulda moved line to 12 or 13 and now KC motivated to get back in the W column 

Either way good luck

@jefff

 24-16 isn't unthinkable, I agree. But neither is 30-10. That's why they play the game, you never know what craziness might happen and the more there is the better chance Carolina has. GL in your plays.

Thanks Rubber I appreciate the kind words...

Good luck with the points. That is probably a good bet. There is no chance the Chiefs lose two in a row. Go check Andy Reid and Mahomes on that one. I do think the +11.5 is great. 

One last comment about home team dogs. They used to my bread and butter 20-25 years ago, they were gold. You could literally blindly pick 3 HT dogs of 3 points or more and get at least 2 right, it was just that easy. Not anymore, gotta do some research now though I still love a good home team division dog, that's the first matchup i look for every weekend. I remember years ago at Del Mar sports book in North Las Vegas, listening to the old timers, back then I was starting out and of course playing mostly favs. And I was losing consistently. But they took me under their wings and one of the things I always remembered is when you take the points, three things can happen, 1) you can lose  2) you can lose and cover the points therefore cash or  3) your underdog wins outright and you cash again. 2 out of 3 winning possibilities. Simple enough but it completely changed the way I bet and I started winning. Moral of the story, I look for those points first and then do my due diligence. If you're new to the game, it's good advice. Best of luck!

I hope this hits for you, Sac.  I don't have too much to add other than I think the Chiefs can go on autopilot and cover a spread like that against a middling team like the Panthers. Jonathan Brooks is expected to make his debut in this game, and if he's the real deal maybe he gives the Chiefs defense some fits. The Chiefs do, however, have the third best run defense, only giving up 3.6 yards/carry.

Teams that should be NO bet at this point

Titans, Dallas, Jets, Browns, Giants, and Panthers

At this point they are all fighting for 1st pick for 2025 NFL Draft.

He is a gifted runner...

@undermysac

 Agreed, I see the Chiefs putting in minimal effort for this game with the Raiders on deck. I don't know about ML but they probably win by less than 10. Even though the raiders suck, it's still the raiders and a divisional rival

So you named the 6 worst ats teams in the nfl.

And things always trend down the same path in the nfl right?

I believe that all these teams were "no bet" teams in weeks 1 through 11. How they fair moving forward is unknown. 

I thought it's worth a half unit Car +4.5 @ +210 MGM