Yeah I'm prolly only going to check covers 2-3 times this week because I will be rehashing the same BS but I definitely enjoy the input from others.
I'm not disrespecting the 49ers at all. I would most likely be betting on them this week no matter who or where they play. The exception most likely being in New Orleans. If they win this week, I sure as hell think they win the superbowl. I just don't know what the difference will be this time they play, from the previous times other than its the playoffs. Week 16 last year and week 2 this year the Niners were hyped. They were huge games, and were dominated. I don't expect it to get as bad as the previous two, but whats stopping it?
If Seattle plays as conservative as they did last week (which almost can't happen unless it pours like that) I think they win a tight game by 3-6, possibly lose by a fg..maybe OT. If they play their offense and let RW get in rhythm I think they hold a comfortable lead in the 4th Q and cover.
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Yeah I'm prolly only going to check covers 2-3 times this week because I will be rehashing the same BS but I definitely enjoy the input from others.
I'm not disrespecting the 49ers at all. I would most likely be betting on them this week no matter who or where they play. The exception most likely being in New Orleans. If they win this week, I sure as hell think they win the superbowl. I just don't know what the difference will be this time they play, from the previous times other than its the playoffs. Week 16 last year and week 2 this year the Niners were hyped. They were huge games, and were dominated. I don't expect it to get as bad as the previous two, but whats stopping it?
If Seattle plays as conservative as they did last week (which almost can't happen unless it pours like that) I think they win a tight game by 3-6, possibly lose by a fg..maybe OT. If they play their offense and let RW get in rhythm I think they hold a comfortable lead in the 4th Q and cover.
Yea Serp, I think it was Stan the Man at QB. Him Natron Means, and Junior Seau were the studs of that team if I remember right. Great game! Also, I agree with you about letting the players determine the game and not boneheaded calls by the refs.
Like today, I'm rooting on my panthers props and screaming for goal line stand right before the half. They botch the TD call and harbaugh comes storming onto the field. Now don't get me wrong, Harbaugh knows better! That was a dopey move doing what he did. But, here we are in the second most important game of the seasons quest for the Super Bowl. You have two groups of warriors destroying each other out on the field. Its now 2nd and goal at the 1 yard with a few seconds remaining before half in a hard hitting hard fought 10-6 football game. Everything is on the line. And these dikhead refs throw a 15 yard personal foul flag which IF Davis was truly out of bounds, the Niners are now in a spot where the flag puts them back to 2nd and goal at the 16 yard line. WHY ARE THE REFS CHANGING THE OUTCOME OF A GAME AT SUCH A CRUCIAL MOMENT??!!! Again, Harbaugh is an idiot. He should have not run over there like that. But the head ref should have grabbed him, said something along the lines of "do not do this again or I will flag you 15 yards every time u fart for the rest of this game" and let the guys play. I don't understand changing the outcome of a game like that. If Davis was out, you are talking a FG instead of a TD, the panthers go into the locker room with a lead, and maybe not as deflated as they were. Does Carolina win it that happens? Probably not, but it could have changed things.
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Yea Serp, I think it was Stan the Man at QB. Him Natron Means, and Junior Seau were the studs of that team if I remember right. Great game! Also, I agree with you about letting the players determine the game and not boneheaded calls by the refs.
Like today, I'm rooting on my panthers props and screaming for goal line stand right before the half. They botch the TD call and harbaugh comes storming onto the field. Now don't get me wrong, Harbaugh knows better! That was a dopey move doing what he did. But, here we are in the second most important game of the seasons quest for the Super Bowl. You have two groups of warriors destroying each other out on the field. Its now 2nd and goal at the 1 yard with a few seconds remaining before half in a hard hitting hard fought 10-6 football game. Everything is on the line. And these dikhead refs throw a 15 yard personal foul flag which IF Davis was truly out of bounds, the Niners are now in a spot where the flag puts them back to 2nd and goal at the 16 yard line. WHY ARE THE REFS CHANGING THE OUTCOME OF A GAME AT SUCH A CRUCIAL MOMENT??!!! Again, Harbaugh is an idiot. He should have not run over there like that. But the head ref should have grabbed him, said something along the lines of "do not do this again or I will flag you 15 yards every time u fart for the rest of this game" and let the guys play. I don't understand changing the outcome of a game like that. If Davis was out, you are talking a FG instead of a TD, the panthers go into the locker room with a lead, and maybe not as deflated as they were. Does Carolina win it that happens? Probably not, but it could have changed things.
Leaning Pats also....But I can't bet against SF right now. No effing way.. This teams mental toughness and conditioning to be able to play a game in GB vs Rodgers with a running game (Lacy) in frigid conditions then fly back west coast and make a 6.5 hour flight to the southeast and play what is basically a 10:00AM game for the Niners and to completely dominate that second half tells me that this team will die on the field before they lose.. Seattles offense is not scary.. Let's see what happens. Should be an insane championship Sunday.
Keep in mind that SF travelled West to Midwest....then back home and travelled again even one more time zone further. Now they go back to the west coast plus travel a distance north. This will be draining on them a little so already Hawks get edge there, homefield amped up edge and crowd noise edge. I will be shocked if SF wins the game given the circumstances......now what will be good value for the Hawk bettor? Can anyone see -2.5 on the horizon?
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
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Quote Originally Posted by FSerpico:
Leaning Pats also....But I can't bet against SF right now. No effing way.. This teams mental toughness and conditioning to be able to play a game in GB vs Rodgers with a running game (Lacy) in frigid conditions then fly back west coast and make a 6.5 hour flight to the southeast and play what is basically a 10:00AM game for the Niners and to completely dominate that second half tells me that this team will die on the field before they lose.. Seattles offense is not scary.. Let's see what happens. Should be an insane championship Sunday.
Keep in mind that SF travelled West to Midwest....then back home and travelled again even one more time zone further. Now they go back to the west coast plus travel a distance north. This will be draining on them a little so already Hawks get edge there, homefield amped up edge and crowd noise edge. I will be shocked if SF wins the game given the circumstances......now what will be good value for the Hawk bettor? Can anyone see -2.5 on the horizon?
Damn Tank, sick year for bowl games for u!! I usually do really good in the bowl games, but this year was meh. I think I went like 19-15 in my bowl pool, and after a hot start with real action plays, I had a tough stretch on dec 30th and 31st that took away my profits. Treaded water later in the schedule, but finished strong on Auburn(close to catching ML with them too). Wound up + only a unit and change when it was said and done, so not too hot at all. I'm looking at my crumpled up bowl sheet right now, and with a quick look, the 11 games where a large majority was on one side(30+ out of 40), those games the "public" went 2-9. Not a bad angle at all in retrospect.
Feel better, brotha man! I rocked a 30mg myself at kickoff for the panther game and I would say by 4:30pm, I smoked 25 cigarettes. ROFL!
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Damn Tank, sick year for bowl games for u!! I usually do really good in the bowl games, but this year was meh. I think I went like 19-15 in my bowl pool, and after a hot start with real action plays, I had a tough stretch on dec 30th and 31st that took away my profits. Treaded water later in the schedule, but finished strong on Auburn(close to catching ML with them too). Wound up + only a unit and change when it was said and done, so not too hot at all. I'm looking at my crumpled up bowl sheet right now, and with a quick look, the 11 games where a large majority was on one side(30+ out of 40), those games the "public" went 2-9. Not a bad angle at all in retrospect.
Feel better, brotha man! I rocked a 30mg myself at kickoff for the panther game and I would say by 4:30pm, I smoked 25 cigarettes. ROFL!
Yea Serp, I think it was Stan the Man at QB. Him Natron Means, and Junior Seau were the studs of that team if I remember right. Great game! Also, I agree with you about letting the players determine the game and not boneheaded calls by the refs.
Like today, I'm rooting on my panthers props and screaming for goal line stand right before the half. They botch the TD call and harbaugh comes storming onto the field. Now don't get me wrong, Harbaugh knows better! That was a dopey move doing what he did. But, here we are in the second most important game of the seasons quest for the Super Bowl. You have two groups of warriors destroying each other out on the field. Its now 2nd and goal at the 1 yard with a few seconds remaining before half in a hard hitting hard fought 10-6 football game. Everything is on the line. And these dikhead refs throw a 15 yard personal foul flag which IF Davis was truly out of bounds, the Niners are now in a spot where the flag puts them back to 2nd and goal at the 16 yard line. WHY ARE THE REFS CHANGING THE OUTCOME OF A GAME AT SUCH A CRUCIAL MOMENT??!!! Again, Harbaugh is an idiot. He should have not run over there like that. But the head ref should have grabbed him, said something along the lines of "do not do this again or I will flag you 15 yards every time u fart for the rest of this game" and let the guys play. I don't understand changing the outcome of a game like that. If Davis was out, you are talking a FG instead of a TD, the panthers go into the locker room with a lead, and maybe not as deflated as they were. Does Carolina win it that happens? Probably not, but it could have changed things.
I was only 10 when that game happened and as a Steeler fan remember Neil not getting it done and us getting stopped I believe on 4th and goal from like the 2 going to the right side of 3 Rivers. Wasn't as bad as him throwing to Larry Brown in the SB who must have been our 3rd wideout that game, especially when we driving down 17-14 maybe and looked like Yancy had a few steps on Brown, but already talked to much. Great hit on that game 2 though and lol and I'm a big fan of ML parlays with 2 teams and that's a solid idea, thx. Love these types of threads and will no doubt check back later in the week and keep up the great reading material!
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
Yea Serp, I think it was Stan the Man at QB. Him Natron Means, and Junior Seau were the studs of that team if I remember right. Great game! Also, I agree with you about letting the players determine the game and not boneheaded calls by the refs.
Like today, I'm rooting on my panthers props and screaming for goal line stand right before the half. They botch the TD call and harbaugh comes storming onto the field. Now don't get me wrong, Harbaugh knows better! That was a dopey move doing what he did. But, here we are in the second most important game of the seasons quest for the Super Bowl. You have two groups of warriors destroying each other out on the field. Its now 2nd and goal at the 1 yard with a few seconds remaining before half in a hard hitting hard fought 10-6 football game. Everything is on the line. And these dikhead refs throw a 15 yard personal foul flag which IF Davis was truly out of bounds, the Niners are now in a spot where the flag puts them back to 2nd and goal at the 16 yard line. WHY ARE THE REFS CHANGING THE OUTCOME OF A GAME AT SUCH A CRUCIAL MOMENT??!!! Again, Harbaugh is an idiot. He should have not run over there like that. But the head ref should have grabbed him, said something along the lines of "do not do this again or I will flag you 15 yards every time u fart for the rest of this game" and let the guys play. I don't understand changing the outcome of a game like that. If Davis was out, you are talking a FG instead of a TD, the panthers go into the locker room with a lead, and maybe not as deflated as they were. Does Carolina win it that happens? Probably not, but it could have changed things.
I was only 10 when that game happened and as a Steeler fan remember Neil not getting it done and us getting stopped I believe on 4th and goal from like the 2 going to the right side of 3 Rivers. Wasn't as bad as him throwing to Larry Brown in the SB who must have been our 3rd wideout that game, especially when we driving down 17-14 maybe and looked like Yancy had a few steps on Brown, but already talked to much. Great hit on that game 2 though and lol and I'm a big fan of ML parlays with 2 teams and that's a solid idea, thx. Love these types of threads and will no doubt check back later in the week and keep up the great reading material!
Hmm, it I was in your shoes, I would hit SF +4 for maybe 250. Like you said, Seattle wins a tight one and u can cash for 250 while also being alive for 2500 the following week. If SF wins, u at least covered a chunk of the -500 with SF cashing +4 for 250. Then again if you are hammering props for 500, $2500 might not be as big a deal for u as it is to me(a unit for me is 100 with a season goal of 2500 and doubling my 2500 dollar bankroll). In that case, LET IT RIDE!! :)
Golden Wonka, that sounds like a pair of nice plays, man. I'm more of a straight bettor so parlays and teasers aren't my thing, but it sounds pretty solid especially if those teams play as well as you feel they will. GL dude and thanks for the insight.
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Nice prop play u have on Seattle, Wildcat!
Hmm, it I was in your shoes, I would hit SF +4 for maybe 250. Like you said, Seattle wins a tight one and u can cash for 250 while also being alive for 2500 the following week. If SF wins, u at least covered a chunk of the -500 with SF cashing +4 for 250. Then again if you are hammering props for 500, $2500 might not be as big a deal for u as it is to me(a unit for me is 100 with a season goal of 2500 and doubling my 2500 dollar bankroll). In that case, LET IT RIDE!! :)
Golden Wonka, that sounds like a pair of nice plays, man. I'm more of a straight bettor so parlays and teasers aren't my thing, but it sounds pretty solid especially if those teams play as well as you feel they will. GL dude and thanks for the insight.
yes, right now i have 180/150 on san fran +4 and 180/150 teaser san fran +10, pats +11.5. i think the line will settle at -3 by game time. not that i am a big seattle fan, i just look for odds. knowing they would be favorites in every playoff game, i can hedge along the way to lock in profit.
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yes, right now i have 180/150 on san fran +4 and 180/150 teaser san fran +10, pats +11.5. i think the line will settle at -3 by game time. not that i am a big seattle fan, i just look for odds. knowing they would be favorites in every playoff game, i can hedge along the way to lock in profit.
imo 5dimes has the sharpest oddsmakers. the fact that they are not opening sea higher than -3 makes me lean san fran if i can get +3.5 or +4. they see this as a 3 pt game and so do i.
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imo 5dimes has the sharpest oddsmakers. the fact that they are not opening sea higher than -3 makes me lean san fran if i can get +3.5 or +4. they see this as a 3 pt game and so do i.
GL with your Seattle prop and subsequent hedges. If Seattle gets by SF, and I think they do, I don't think anyone from the AFC has anywhere near as complete a team as Seattle does. When you are talking Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, those are the kind of guys who can individually wipeout a lot of full team advantages on the other side, but if Seattle gets to the big dance, I think they have a great shot of taking it. Especially with the SB in New Jersey. At the end of the day, NO ONE wants to play the big game in rain or snow or wind, but you take a 20-25 degree evening with lots of wind and that really hurts Manning. Brady deals with bad weather so it won't bother him as much, but I believe Seattle matches up with them much better overall(NE doesn't have the skill players on offense that Denver has so Seattle might be able to dominate every matchup in the passing game), so regardless of opponent in the SB, I do think they have an edge.
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GL with your Seattle prop and subsequent hedges. If Seattle gets by SF, and I think they do, I don't think anyone from the AFC has anywhere near as complete a team as Seattle does. When you are talking Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, those are the kind of guys who can individually wipeout a lot of full team advantages on the other side, but if Seattle gets to the big dance, I think they have a great shot of taking it. Especially with the SB in New Jersey. At the end of the day, NO ONE wants to play the big game in rain or snow or wind, but you take a 20-25 degree evening with lots of wind and that really hurts Manning. Brady deals with bad weather so it won't bother him as much, but I believe Seattle matches up with them much better overall(NE doesn't have the skill players on offense that Denver has so Seattle might be able to dominate every matchup in the passing game), so regardless of opponent in the SB, I do think they have an edge.
Not a big tease guy usually, but these playoff lines have been pretty sharp and Ive been cleaning up all playoffs teasing the dogs. Only dog I laid off was Indy, all other dogs have covered on 7 point teasers I've played. Also, don't feel there's a real dominant team this year; all have flaws, but the gap between these teams isn't much, thus teasing up dogs offers value. My .02
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Hammered Niners +10.5 to Pats +12
Not a big tease guy usually, but these playoff lines have been pretty sharp and Ive been cleaning up all playoffs teasing the dogs. Only dog I laid off was Indy, all other dogs have covered on 7 point teasers I've played. Also, don't feel there's a real dominant team this year; all have flaws, but the gap between these teams isn't much, thus teasing up dogs offers value. My .02
Nem and Sjabo, I think you guys might be right. Like I said I had it penciled in as 4 or maybe 4.5 so it really opened my eyes when it opened at a heavily juiced -3. Part of me thinks the line should and will creep up to the line I "guessed," but there seems to be a lot of SF love that has been building the last few weeks, and I really do think a lot of sharp SF money can roll in to where the books are forced to adjust it down. If not, I can live with my -3.5 bet. To be honest, I would have hit them at anything less than a touchdown. When you start talking -7, then I have to start considering SF plus the points for value only even though I do believe Seattle is going to beat them up pretty good.
Tank....Man, I hate to see you hurting like that. I'm sorry brotha, I know back pain and it sucks, but a bad experience post surgery....I can't even imagine what u are going through. I'm flying on some "ox" right now, but no pain for me, I needed something to dull the mental pain of that Denver backdoor!! ;) Keep doing your therapy, man, and be patient. You are a good dude and good karma and good health will eventually flow back your way. Hang in there, buddy.
How did you make out this weekend? Were you on the right side of all those "fixed" games? :P LOL, we might be polar opposites on how we come to the conclusion on our wagers, but we do seem to get it done at the end of the day regardless of our insight.
Haha Vegas Vandal, I'm glad to you see it my way!! What annoys me is one of my buddies had SD and we were going back and forth all week on why we liked our wagers. This prikk actually texted me with an I TOLD U SD COVERS an hour ago!! Sent me into a rage, lol. Then he was saying, there is no "right" side if it doesn't cash. Lol, I wanted to kill him!!!
But an old wise man once told me something that I remember to this day. Long story short, he was a local years back and I used to be a middle man for him back in the day. I met up with him after a really bad week where I took a beating. I was b1tching and moaning that I got backdoored THREE games on Sunday out of 5 that I bet on. In college my squad was up 3 touchdowns, but my starting QB got hurt and wound up losing because the backup was horrendous. Another college game I has something like under 62 and it was 10-7 at half, wound up being 24-24, went into OT, and wound up being like 48-47 after 346 overtimes. One NBA game I was getting 9. It went into overtime and they were outscored 10-0 in OT. JUST A NIGHTMARE WEEK.
Anyway he said, "Kid, you're young and cocky, but you are one of the better cappers I know. One thing I've learned over the years is if you suck and can't pick your a$$, you will get lucky more often than not. You cap bad, so your teams are in bad spots, and that opens up lots of crazy back door type of wins and 'miracle' comebacks. But when you know what you are doing, and you cap games well, more often than not, your teams play well and position themselves with the lead late in games. THAT is when your squads go into prevent and give up late touchdowns, or teams get up early and take their foot off the petal and the back doors go against you more often than not. Don't get emotional, don't CHASE, and roll with the punches."
ROFL, I don't know if he's right, but I'll make believe he is to feel better about myself! :P
He was right trust me. GL
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
Nem and Sjabo, I think you guys might be right. Like I said I had it penciled in as 4 or maybe 4.5 so it really opened my eyes when it opened at a heavily juiced -3. Part of me thinks the line should and will creep up to the line I "guessed," but there seems to be a lot of SF love that has been building the last few weeks, and I really do think a lot of sharp SF money can roll in to where the books are forced to adjust it down. If not, I can live with my -3.5 bet. To be honest, I would have hit them at anything less than a touchdown. When you start talking -7, then I have to start considering SF plus the points for value only even though I do believe Seattle is going to beat them up pretty good.
Tank....Man, I hate to see you hurting like that. I'm sorry brotha, I know back pain and it sucks, but a bad experience post surgery....I can't even imagine what u are going through. I'm flying on some "ox" right now, but no pain for me, I needed something to dull the mental pain of that Denver backdoor!! ;) Keep doing your therapy, man, and be patient. You are a good dude and good karma and good health will eventually flow back your way. Hang in there, buddy.
How did you make out this weekend? Were you on the right side of all those "fixed" games? :P LOL, we might be polar opposites on how we come to the conclusion on our wagers, but we do seem to get it done at the end of the day regardless of our insight.
Haha Vegas Vandal, I'm glad to you see it my way!! What annoys me is one of my buddies had SD and we were going back and forth all week on why we liked our wagers. This prikk actually texted me with an I TOLD U SD COVERS an hour ago!! Sent me into a rage, lol. Then he was saying, there is no "right" side if it doesn't cash. Lol, I wanted to kill him!!!
But an old wise man once told me something that I remember to this day. Long story short, he was a local years back and I used to be a middle man for him back in the day. I met up with him after a really bad week where I took a beating. I was b1tching and moaning that I got backdoored THREE games on Sunday out of 5 that I bet on. In college my squad was up 3 touchdowns, but my starting QB got hurt and wound up losing because the backup was horrendous. Another college game I has something like under 62 and it was 10-7 at half, wound up being 24-24, went into OT, and wound up being like 48-47 after 346 overtimes. One NBA game I was getting 9. It went into overtime and they were outscored 10-0 in OT. JUST A NIGHTMARE WEEK.
Anyway he said, "Kid, you're young and cocky, but you are one of the better cappers I know. One thing I've learned over the years is if you suck and can't pick your a$$, you will get lucky more often than not. You cap bad, so your teams are in bad spots, and that opens up lots of crazy back door type of wins and 'miracle' comebacks. But when you know what you are doing, and you cap games well, more often than not, your teams play well and position themselves with the lead late in games. THAT is when your squads go into prevent and give up late touchdowns, or teams get up early and take their foot off the petal and the back doors go against you more often than not. Don't get emotional, don't CHASE, and roll with the punches."
ROFL, I don't know if he's right, but I'll make believe he is to feel better about myself! :P
Kap under 190 yards is a good bet. I can't see him getting anywhere near 200 unless its a situation where Seattle jumps up on them big early, and there's A LOT of garbage time throwing.
I have another half unit I have stowed away for the Seattle game. Seems like there's crazy SF love, but I still wouldn't be surprised if the line jumps to -4.5. If it can drop to 3 and the juice is not -125 or -130, then I'm gonna hit Seattle again.
My brain is boggled about this Denver game. I have NE +6 and my intentions were to add to it ML or spread if it stays 4.5 or higher, but the more I look at the game, the more I'm having second thoughts. Denver played horribly and made a lot of mistakes and they still cruised to an easy win over a scrappy SD squad. I'm afraid they play the perfect game and if NE don't match them, it could be a Denver blowout.
Ok Seattle -3.5.
I can go on about the obvious 12th man advantage and how Seattle has smoked SF at home the last two times they played, but everyone has talked about that. What gets me is the talk that Seattle suddenly is not untouchable at home and how both the defense and the offense are both not playing well right now. Yes, they aren't playing "as well" as they were earlier in the year, but what team on the planet can be lights out every game? What team doesn't struggle for short spurts throughout a long season? Granted, I would rather see Seattle have a little lull in their game weeks 10-13 and finish on a roll, but if how Seattle has been the last month could be considered "struggling," I would love to play for that team. Lets see, they blew out the Saints 31-7. Shut out the Giants 23-0. They lost a game to a very good Arizona team like 17-10, but its not like that game didnt fall well after Seattle had the 1 seed locked up and no matter what anyone says, that is gonna change the intensity a team brings. There was a tight battle with SF that SF scored late to squeak by them, so if this is a case of Seattle playing bad, how bad are they? Then Seattle comes out and absolutely dominates the Saints in the playoff game. Shut them out the first 3 quarters before their defense played a little softer and the saints scored some late garbage TDs.
So I don't get this sudden disrespect for Seattle at home. The crowd is gonna be bonkers like usual and I'm not sure Kap will suddenly be able to handle it where he was completely overwhelmed in the past. He has all his weapons now, but he's still the same guy who gets the ball, rolls out a little, keys on one guy, and then makes his throw. Seattle's secondary is gonna be all over their receivers, and he better learn quickly to go through more than one read before he fires away. Can he? I don't think so. Seattle is really good against the run, but they aren't elite in that aspect, so SF should be able to move the ball a little bit, but Kap has to be make plays on 2nd and 3rd and short. On the other side, Wilson will be pressured from a tough defensive front, but this dude is maybe the best in the league throwing on the run when being harassed so I'm not too worried. SF's secondary can be exploited and I don't see why Wilson doesn't play an excellent game as long as he plays behind his D and running game and doesn't try to do too much.
Another angle is coaching. Now I'm not saying Harbaugh is a bad overall coach. He is FARRR from that. He took a group of underachievers and had them play to their potential overnight. He's a players coach so his guys love him, yet he garners full 100% respect from them. He has a good group of coaches under him, and mixed with SF's talent, he runs a tight ship and gets the most of his guys. So I'm not saying he is a bad coach. But on the field during a game, I feel he is average at best. He has a bad habit of burning timeouts and it always seems like he only has 1 or 2 time outs available before half when he can use them. He is super emotional and it shows in his calls at times. Look at what he did right before half at Carolina. Ran out on the field and got it with a 15 yard PF like an idiot. If Davis was out of bounds, he would have put his team in a 2nd and goal from the 16 instead of 2nd and goal at the 2. And from there, maybe SF tries to force it in and there's a turnover or at best a FG. Now Carolina goes into the break UP 10-6 or 10-9 instead of being down 13-10 and deflated. That could have made a difference in that game. Also Harbaugh boggles my mind on 4th down. If I'm yelling PUNT, he will try a 56 yard FG. If I think they should kick a FG, they will go for it. If I think they should go for it, he will punt. If he should challenge, he won't, if he shouldn't challenge he will and burn a TO. Seems like he never makes the right call, IMO. On the other side, Carroll and his staff are top notch in every aspect. I fully expect him to make every proper call when live in game.
Now Seattle is home and completely rested and healthy. Meanwhile SF has been desperate and been do or die for at least a month. They are road warriors, I'll give em that, but while one team hasn't left Seattle in over THIRTY days, SF has had to fly to Zona, battle for their lives, fly back home, practice, fly all the way to Green Bay, battle for their lives, fly back to SF and practice, fly all the out of Carolina, grind out a game there, fly back home to SF to practice, and finally fly up to Seattle. Sooner or later, it catches up to u. I think Seattle is a team that hit back just as hard as SF hits them, get out to an early lead behind a crazy home crowd, and then completely and utterly wear out SF in the second half. I smell a ROUT.
Its the other game, I'm having second thoughts about. Not enough to where I'm gonna jump ship and bet Denver, but I had a second unit for the Pats I was gonna wager and I might just sit back on that. I'll be back later with my complete thoughts on the pats broncos game.
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Kap under 190 yards is a good bet. I can't see him getting anywhere near 200 unless its a situation where Seattle jumps up on them big early, and there's A LOT of garbage time throwing.
I have another half unit I have stowed away for the Seattle game. Seems like there's crazy SF love, but I still wouldn't be surprised if the line jumps to -4.5. If it can drop to 3 and the juice is not -125 or -130, then I'm gonna hit Seattle again.
My brain is boggled about this Denver game. I have NE +6 and my intentions were to add to it ML or spread if it stays 4.5 or higher, but the more I look at the game, the more I'm having second thoughts. Denver played horribly and made a lot of mistakes and they still cruised to an easy win over a scrappy SD squad. I'm afraid they play the perfect game and if NE don't match them, it could be a Denver blowout.
Ok Seattle -3.5.
I can go on about the obvious 12th man advantage and how Seattle has smoked SF at home the last two times they played, but everyone has talked about that. What gets me is the talk that Seattle suddenly is not untouchable at home and how both the defense and the offense are both not playing well right now. Yes, they aren't playing "as well" as they were earlier in the year, but what team on the planet can be lights out every game? What team doesn't struggle for short spurts throughout a long season? Granted, I would rather see Seattle have a little lull in their game weeks 10-13 and finish on a roll, but if how Seattle has been the last month could be considered "struggling," I would love to play for that team. Lets see, they blew out the Saints 31-7. Shut out the Giants 23-0. They lost a game to a very good Arizona team like 17-10, but its not like that game didnt fall well after Seattle had the 1 seed locked up and no matter what anyone says, that is gonna change the intensity a team brings. There was a tight battle with SF that SF scored late to squeak by them, so if this is a case of Seattle playing bad, how bad are they? Then Seattle comes out and absolutely dominates the Saints in the playoff game. Shut them out the first 3 quarters before their defense played a little softer and the saints scored some late garbage TDs.
So I don't get this sudden disrespect for Seattle at home. The crowd is gonna be bonkers like usual and I'm not sure Kap will suddenly be able to handle it where he was completely overwhelmed in the past. He has all his weapons now, but he's still the same guy who gets the ball, rolls out a little, keys on one guy, and then makes his throw. Seattle's secondary is gonna be all over their receivers, and he better learn quickly to go through more than one read before he fires away. Can he? I don't think so. Seattle is really good against the run, but they aren't elite in that aspect, so SF should be able to move the ball a little bit, but Kap has to be make plays on 2nd and 3rd and short. On the other side, Wilson will be pressured from a tough defensive front, but this dude is maybe the best in the league throwing on the run when being harassed so I'm not too worried. SF's secondary can be exploited and I don't see why Wilson doesn't play an excellent game as long as he plays behind his D and running game and doesn't try to do too much.
Another angle is coaching. Now I'm not saying Harbaugh is a bad overall coach. He is FARRR from that. He took a group of underachievers and had them play to their potential overnight. He's a players coach so his guys love him, yet he garners full 100% respect from them. He has a good group of coaches under him, and mixed with SF's talent, he runs a tight ship and gets the most of his guys. So I'm not saying he is a bad coach. But on the field during a game, I feel he is average at best. He has a bad habit of burning timeouts and it always seems like he only has 1 or 2 time outs available before half when he can use them. He is super emotional and it shows in his calls at times. Look at what he did right before half at Carolina. Ran out on the field and got it with a 15 yard PF like an idiot. If Davis was out of bounds, he would have put his team in a 2nd and goal from the 16 instead of 2nd and goal at the 2. And from there, maybe SF tries to force it in and there's a turnover or at best a FG. Now Carolina goes into the break UP 10-6 or 10-9 instead of being down 13-10 and deflated. That could have made a difference in that game. Also Harbaugh boggles my mind on 4th down. If I'm yelling PUNT, he will try a 56 yard FG. If I think they should kick a FG, they will go for it. If I think they should go for it, he will punt. If he should challenge, he won't, if he shouldn't challenge he will and burn a TO. Seems like he never makes the right call, IMO. On the other side, Carroll and his staff are top notch in every aspect. I fully expect him to make every proper call when live in game.
Now Seattle is home and completely rested and healthy. Meanwhile SF has been desperate and been do or die for at least a month. They are road warriors, I'll give em that, but while one team hasn't left Seattle in over THIRTY days, SF has had to fly to Zona, battle for their lives, fly back home, practice, fly all the way to Green Bay, battle for their lives, fly back to SF and practice, fly all the out of Carolina, grind out a game there, fly back home to SF to practice, and finally fly up to Seattle. Sooner or later, it catches up to u. I think Seattle is a team that hit back just as hard as SF hits them, get out to an early lead behind a crazy home crowd, and then completely and utterly wear out SF in the second half. I smell a ROUT.
Its the other game, I'm having second thoughts about. Not enough to where I'm gonna jump ship and bet Denver, but I had a second unit for the Pats I was gonna wager and I might just sit back on that. I'll be back later with my complete thoughts on the pats broncos game.
i am not seeing the same line movement as you. 5dimes has it stuck on -3 -125. juice has moved a little bit but they won't bump it to 3.5. i really see this as a fg game. seattle has few weapons but home field is huge. also, they own the niners at home. kap is clueless against the hawks blitzes but athletic enough to scramble for big plays. don't get me wrong, i would never take niners straight up in this one but feel MUCH better about the ml -180 ish or -3 -125.
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i am not seeing the same line movement as you. 5dimes has it stuck on -3 -125. juice has moved a little bit but they won't bump it to 3.5. i really see this as a fg game. seattle has few weapons but home field is huge. also, they own the niners at home. kap is clueless against the hawks blitzes but athletic enough to scramble for big plays. don't get me wrong, i would never take niners straight up in this one but feel MUCH better about the ml -180 ish or -3 -125.
I came up with a way to sort of hedge my NE play. I'm confident on Seattle so I'm not worried there, but NE+6 is bothering me. So I just did a sort of hedge middle ML parlay to back myself up. I took SEA/DEN risking a half unit to win almost 3/4 of a unit. If NE covers/wins SU, the ML parlay will cut into my profits, but I'll still be up a half unit going into the Seattle game. If Denver blows out NE, I'll have a lil parlay going if Seattle takes care of business. Or best case scenario, Denver wins a 34-30 tight game, my ML parlay is still alive, my +6 cashed, and I go into the Seattle game that I'm most confident in. Or maybe even the ML parlay saves me if Seattle squeaks out a 27-24 game.
So final wagers for Sunday:
New England +6(one unit).
DEN/SEA ML(risking half unit to win 3/4 unit).
Seattle -3.5 -110(one unit).
Seattle -3.5 -105(half unit).
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I came up with a way to sort of hedge my NE play. I'm confident on Seattle so I'm not worried there, but NE+6 is bothering me. So I just did a sort of hedge middle ML parlay to back myself up. I took SEA/DEN risking a half unit to win almost 3/4 of a unit. If NE covers/wins SU, the ML parlay will cut into my profits, but I'll still be up a half unit going into the Seattle game. If Denver blows out NE, I'll have a lil parlay going if Seattle takes care of business. Or best case scenario, Denver wins a 34-30 tight game, my ML parlay is still alive, my +6 cashed, and I go into the Seattle game that I'm most confident in. Or maybe even the ML parlay saves me if Seattle squeaks out a 27-24 game.
The Crowd is going to be going absolutely ape-chit. I bet half the game the camera is shaking from the crowd going nuts.
I'm definitely saving some units for Seattle In-game too, if they go behind at any point. Lets not forget how Russell Wilson brought his team back from 14-0 vs the Skins last year, and then 27-7 in the 4th Quarter vs the Falcons last year in the 2nd round.
People sleeping, disrespecting and counting on RW to be Seattle's downfall is just plain wishful thinking.
SF better, better, better start off fast or this game could be out of hand. I'm not going to be around till sunday, but lets just say I already bought my skittles and am fully ready to be throwing them at the TV screen come sunday night.
Goodluck man, can't wait for all the SF backers to dissapeer, or comeback sunday night bragging how the got SF +20.5 ingame and how they ended up breaking even for the night.
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The Crowd is going to be going absolutely ape-chit. I bet half the game the camera is shaking from the crowd going nuts.
I'm definitely saving some units for Seattle In-game too, if they go behind at any point. Lets not forget how Russell Wilson brought his team back from 14-0 vs the Skins last year, and then 27-7 in the 4th Quarter vs the Falcons last year in the 2nd round.
People sleeping, disrespecting and counting on RW to be Seattle's downfall is just plain wishful thinking.
SF better, better, better start off fast or this game could be out of hand. I'm not going to be around till sunday, but lets just say I already bought my skittles and am fully ready to be throwing them at the TV screen come sunday night.
Goodluck man, can't wait for all the SF backers to dissapeer, or comeback sunday night bragging how the got SF +20.5 ingame and how they ended up breaking even for the night.
this weekend sets up very nicely for teasers and hedges. with denver's porous defense, i don't see any scenario where the pats don't cover +11.5. to me, this is a 35-31 game. i live in denver, the weather won't be an issue. sunny and upper 50's. it is possible that the pats defense will slow down the broncos but not the other way around. brady will hit his 2 favorite white boy receivers all day for 10-15 yards. if he does not get greedy, they can move the ball at will. agreed, if the niners get down early, it is over for them. the seattle secondary will get plenty of picks if they are trying to play catch up.
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this weekend sets up very nicely for teasers and hedges. with denver's porous defense, i don't see any scenario where the pats don't cover +11.5. to me, this is a 35-31 game. i live in denver, the weather won't be an issue. sunny and upper 50's. it is possible that the pats defense will slow down the broncos but not the other way around. brady will hit his 2 favorite white boy receivers all day for 10-15 yards. if he does not get greedy, they can move the ball at will. agreed, if the niners get down early, it is over for them. the seattle secondary will get plenty of picks if they are trying to play catch up.
Denver has NO Pass Defense ! Both of Denver's secondary players are out ! DB Chris Harris(out), LB Von Miller(out), S Rahim Moore (out)? Quentin Jammer(Bum), Champ Bailey(Bum).
NE will score at least 5 TD's on Denver's D. It will be up to Manning to match him or the officials calling tic-tac penalties on NE db's to help keep Denver in the game.
OVER 56 is a gift but the officiating could dictate that number by calling penalties in favor of the home team. We all know how officials favor the home crowd.
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This is why the Pats win SU.
Denver has NO Pass Defense ! Both of Denver's secondary players are out ! DB Chris Harris(out), LB Von Miller(out), S Rahim Moore (out)? Quentin Jammer(Bum), Champ Bailey(Bum).
NE will score at least 5 TD's on Denver's D. It will be up to Manning to match him or the officials calling tic-tac penalties on NE db's to help keep Denver in the game.
OVER 56 is a gift but the officiating could dictate that number by calling penalties in favor of the home team. We all know how officials favor the home crowd.
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Keep in mind that SF travelled West to Midwest....then back home and travelled again even one more time zone further. Now they go back to the west coast plus travel a distance north. This will be draining on them a little so already Hawks get edge there, homefield amped up edge and crowd noise edge. I will be shocked if SF wins the game given the circumstances......now what will be good value for the Hawk bettor? Can anyone see -2.5 on the horizon?
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