after bye-week matchups

Don't forget to look at the favored teams coming off a bye, and pay close attention to the road favorite coming off a bye.

Last week the favorites coming off a bye enjoyed a strong week as usual going 4-2

I am also riding the 49ers on a favorable matchup.
If it ain't broke, don't try to fix it !
and the Redskins by the way are broken.

Good Luck
RobertoFiory

A blast from the past! 

GL this season RF

That's correct PapaShango...

the list of teams coming off a bye from week 8 are :

Bye Week Teams:
Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, N.Y. Jets, Oakland, Tampa Bay

Of these Atlanta & Green Bay are the road favorites

NY Jets were a small underdog and Chicago and Tampa Bay are decisive underdogs
Atlanta, Green Bay, Oakland are the
 favorites coming off a bye.

It is unusual to have 2 road favorites out of those 3, but those of you that remember my trend research of last few years, these have been golden.
________________________

49ers are golden once again...great defense serves them well on the road ...
Let's see what GB Packers can do...

good luck

Greetings to you all ...and best of luck with the rest of your games !

RF

Roberto.. Welcome back to the board.. made some good money off your hard work a few years ago, once again- thank you.. thought you retired!

Hope you keep the analysis and trends coming.. they're much appreciated.. Pack lookin solid..

Alright ...I decided to update the favorites off a bye week where I left off last year :

For the season 2010-2011 Favorites coming off a bye went
9-5-2 ATS
Road Favorites coming off a bye went 2-0-1 ATS
Road Favorites coming off a bye were coming into the season on a 8-0 ATS streak >
That streak was bolstered to a blistering 10-0-1 ATS clip where it ended the 2010-2011 season>
_______________

2011-2012 season  through week 9 :

Favorites coming off a bye are 9-5 ATS
Road favorites coming off abye are 3-1 ATS
Road Favorites enjoy a 13-1-1 ATS run

______________________

Week 10 ( last week for teams coming off a bye :

Carolina - 3.5 vs tennessee
Jacksonville - 3 @ Indianapolis  >> Road favorite
Detroit @ chicago ( no line yet )
________________________

next I'll copy and paste my research from prior years , and someone can update them.
I believe MJ2345  has updated the numbers already...
By the way, yes I have used final odds as listed on covers scoreboard for every year to keep it consistent >

That's all for know !
RF
__________________________

From prior posts >   Note that I longer concern myself with teams that find themselves underdogs coming off a bye >>

Here is the update for favored teams coming off a bye :

The performance of all the teams coming off their bye week during the 2006-2007 season only

16 of the teams were set a favorites

Favorites : ( 16 total )

Favorites won 11 games SU & ATS ( 68.75 % )

Favorites won 1 game SU & lost ATS ( 6.25 % )

Favorites lost 4 games SU & ATS ( 25.00 % )

The spreads for the favs : -10, 7, 5.5, 6, 3, 4.5, 3, 8, 7.5, 5.5, 16, 1, 3, 3.5, 10, 9 ( 12 of them higher than 3 )

The favs that lost outright blew spreads of - 3, - 4.5, - 7.5, - 1

One more that won but didn't cover the spread : ?

This is the result for teams coming off their Bye weeks for the 2007-2008 NFL season :

18 Favorites

So, how did the 18 favorites perform coming off their byes :

Favorites won 13 games SU & ATS ( 72.2 % )

Favorites won 1 game SU & Lost ATS ( 5.6 % )

Favorites lost 4 games SU & ATS ( 22.2 % )

18 of the teams were favorites ( - 3.5 , 3.5 , 2.5 , 3, 3, 2. 5 , 1 , 3, 2, 2.5, 16, 4, 4.5 , 4.5 , 10, 3, 7.5, 4 )

In red are the spreads of 3 or less
How did these 5 favorites do ?

HD : 3-3-1 SU & 4-3 ATS

HF : 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS

RD : 1-8 SU & 4-5 ATS

__________________________________

Note :

Favorites did not enjoy as much success as they finished on a weak note , but still managed to go 13-5 SU & 9-8-1 ATS

With this Favorites have gone 45-22-1 ATS since the 2006-2007 season and 57-26-1 ATS since the 2005-2006 season began
Road favorites are on a 8-0 ATS run through the end of the 2009-2010 season
Now , let's introduce the 2010-2011 season and let's see if this the poor ending for the 2009-2010 season signals a reversal or not ...

There have not been many teams coming off a bye that found themselves as favorites so far this year :

Out of the 12 teams that have already played their post-bye games, only 3 of them were favored !

The record stands at 1-1-1 ATS for the year...

Week 5 : ( 0-1-0 ATS )

Tenn @ Dallas - 6.5 ( Lost SU & ATS )

Week 6 : ( 1-0-1 ATS )

Baltimore @ NE - 3 ( Won SU & pushed ATS )

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh - 14 ( Won SU & ATS )

Week 7 : ( 0-0-0 ATS )

For the first time we have 3 teams favored that are coming off a bye week.

This will be an important week for this trend ...

The 8-0 ATS streak for the road favorites will have to wait for another opportunity ...

The following highlighted teams will be playing off their bye week in week 9 >>>

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Miami @ Baltimore

Chicago @ Buffalo

New England @ Cleveland

New York Giants @ Seattle

Indianapolis @ Philadelphia

In Bold are the projected favorites and you will notice two road favorites

Let's see what happens

RF__________

2009-2010 NFL season >>

( Now focusing on only favorites )

week 5 : ( 2-1 ATS )

Houston @ Arizona - 5.5 ...won SU & ATS

Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia - 15.5 ... won SU & ATS

Washington @ Carolina - 5 ... won SU & lost ATS

Week 6 : ( 2-1 ATS )

Detroit @ Green Bay - 13.5 won SU/ATS

NYG @ New Orleans - 3.5 won SU/ATS

Denver @ San Diego - 3.5 ( MNF ) Lost SU/ATS

Week 7 : ( 2-0 ATS )

Atlanta @ Dallas - 4 ...won SU & ATS

Indianapolis - 13.5 @ St Louis ... won SU & ATS

Week 8 : ( 2-1 ATS )

Denver @ Baltimore - 3.5 Won SU & ATS

St Louis @ Detroit - 4.5 Lost SU & ATS

Jacksonville @ Tennessee - 3 Won SU & ATS

Week 9 : 1-1 ATS

Miami @ New England - 10.5 (Won SU & lost ATS )
Pittsburgh -3 @ Denver ( Won SU & ATS )

Jac @ NY Jets ( Lost SU & ATS )

KC @ Oakland ( Lost SU & ATS )

Detroit @ Minnesota ( Won SU & pushed ATS )

Week 10 ( last week for teams coming off a bye :

Carolina - 3.5 vs tennessee
Jacksonville - 3 @ Indianapolis >> Road favorite
Detroit @ chicago ( no line yet )
________________________

next I'll copy and paste my research from prior years , and someone can update them.
I believe MJ2345 has updated the numbers already...
By the way, yes I have used final odds as listed on covers scoreboard for every year to keep it consistent >

That's all for know !
RF

One thing is for certain regardless of where the line ends up with Detroit @ chicago , there will be at least one Road favorite playing the next and final week :

Jacksonville -3 @ Indianapolis
Road Favorites enjoy a 13-1-1 ATS run