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Always fade big names

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Captain
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Posted: #51
I did take 3 units on det and 9 units on the ML... 3 units play for me is on the small side... Btw
 
Captain
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:

I did take 3 units on det and 9 units on the ML... 3 units play for me is on the small side... Btw

oh ok
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:

I did take 3 units on det and 9 units on the ML... 3 units play for me is on the small side... Btw

My minimum is 50 units......
 
Captain
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Posted: #54
my max is around 30-40... but i have a large sample size.. i rarely leave out any games... I playem all,, last week i faded the whole board.. 
 
Captain
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Posted: #55
Yeap and the only game i didnt fade was the 1 MONDAY NIGHT GAME.. LOL 
 
Captain
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Posted: #56
I even took TB over SF... LOL
 
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Posted: #57
There are 2-3 hmmmmm, so called cappers on here that I use and go OPPOSITE only if they agree....If it's a prime time game, and they agree again, I double my wager....Has worked well hitting around 70-75 %..
 
Captain
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont:

Anything else?

What you think about Dallas and Washington?

I would probably take washington like i did last week.. I still need to sniff out where all the action is.. And non action games.. They are simply in another class
 
Captain
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Posted: #59
I have a two friends that i fade... The best guy i have has hit over 50% on one of the weeks.. The rest of the weeks has lost every single week.. He finally realized how square he is.. And started fading himself.. He calls me every week to give me his plays... In return i give him my best plays and tellem him to put some on that game,, if it loses i will pay him,, if it wins he keeps it.. I use this as one filter for my overall analysis 
 
Captain
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Posted: #60
The first winner i gave him was when IND-SD... That was classic,, he didnt believe it... Its like when some troll on this forum tells a little kid there's no santa.. Only he's an adult... 
 
Captain
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Posted: #61
Here's a list of teams where i lost money on,, ATL,JAX,HOU,,, The rest i won money off of them or broke even... 
 
Captain
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Posted: #62
Oh and i lost some on GB this year... 
 
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Posted: #63
We are here for winners, no matter what way they are capped....Well, I faded big name Terry Bradshaw years ago and he had my nuts handed to me....Ditto for one of the best ever---Joe Montana....Jerry Rice....Betting against the Niners and Steelers was like trying to put butter up a wildcats behind with a hot poker....Almost went broke.... Wife left, took kids...I had theories, schemes, angles, delusional thinking, staying awake capping games, subscribing to services who I later found out were giving out "both sides" of a game.,..I finally realized that nobody can cap at above 60 percent for an entire season,,,,As I stated in another post, I fade three of the worst cappers here....Sometimes I hit 75 percent winners with them, and mostly I use "prime timr games!"....THAT'S WHERE U CAN MAKE CASH, BY MOSTLY GOING OPPOSITE OF THE PUBLIC....I did it last night, with Denver-San DIego, Dallas Chicago, Pittsburgh-Cincy, and many others.....Now is bowl season too and I got my opposites there ...No matter what, best of luck to all....
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:

Here's a list of teams where i lost money on,, ATL,JAX,HOU,,, The rest i won money off of them or broke even... 
I am going to watch this system closely. ........
 

 



 



 
Captain
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Posted: #65
Tank ,, good stuff... You are as real as it gets... By now you figure people with the experience like you should be able to take a glance and hit 60 ... But i believe you when you hit 75%.. Most sharps play about 3 or less games and hit pretty hi numbers... Theres just too many ways to win and they all have different odds on the outcomes... Picking a few to win is always better odds i totally agree but it also can raise your volatility in the short run .. Especially on sunday mnf, and thursdays... I have played all 15 weeks so far and had 3 losing weeks with a rather large sample size... As of week 15 im 123-82-4 which puts me at exactly 60%... And these are just my sides... I think  achieving 70's all season isnt impossible even with my type of sample size... But it requires alot more info and filters to maintain throughout.. Might not be worth it but i have software that i can combine.. It tells me real early action and late action... Im giving myself about another 2 years to master this.. Call me a sucker but im willing to take on that challenge lol... GL
 
Captain
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Posted: #66
Ive used tons of software and services.. But ive only kept one,, which is absolutely the sharpest line i have ever seen... I use this as another filter... Or rather like a shopping list of prices... 
 
Captain
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Posted: #67
See vegas tries to set the number where the sharps will come in on one end and the squares will come in on the other end... Most of the time but not always,, therefore half the times those lines arent correct.. Theres quite a few reasons those lines arent correct to put it into context.. Only experience and having resources can sort all that up... 
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:

See vegas tries to set the number where the sharps will come in on one end and the squares will come in on the other end... Most of the time but not always,, therefore half the times those lines arent correct.. Theres quite a few reasons those lines arent correct to put it into context.. Only experience and having resources can sort all that up... 
interesting. ......very interesting. ........

I was always under the impression that Vegas tried to get equal money on both sides and make their money on the juice. ........
learn something new every day
 
Captain
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Posted: #69
Not always,, other variables being people of the masses pulling the trigger on their favorite teams regardless of the spreads.. This in turn will automatically inflate the line to a point of vegas's liking or not.. Then there's times where vegas already knows the outcome "Somehow" and the lines just do not budge,, only the juice moves... Then you have lines where public is all over the dog and the dog keeps getting more and more points and you scratch your heads thinking damn i got in too early LOL... All of these movements and situations of what happend last week along with sharp oversight and understanding of public perception must be acheived and having the data in place to really be sharp... Oh and to pull the trigger when the stars are aligned is also important.. So when you see some guy trying to sell you a system based on numbers only.. Forget it .. It doesnt work... Numbers are just part of the story... 
 
 
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Posted: #70
Good luck through the rest of the season
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