Anyone like Saints ML?

To me - 4 seems a bit high, should be closer to - 2.5. I really think in Case Keenum's first playoff game he might struggle for a bit. Vikes were killing it the last month of the season, easily covering double digit lines but I think this Saints team has the correct type of QB, run game and tight, physical defense to stop Minny in it's tracks. You also have the factor of Minnesota isn't naturally much of a home field advantage with them losing plenty of playoff games at the Metronome and their one game at the new stadium. I think if you look at HC, QB, RB, WR, etc the Saints have a clear advantage here. Thoughts on the game guys?

Minnesota isnt a home field advantage !?!? This is there first playoff game in the new stadium,  the Walsh missed kick was outdoors at college stadium still a great home field. I dont have exact stats but looking back we havent had a home playoff game indoor since favre where we smacked Dallas at home then lost in NO. And before that we havent played at home in a longggg time. i think there was one home game we snuck in with Tarvarsis jackson lol but bwfore that not since 2000 id say. Anyways there is going to be a huge homefield adv which even though indoors the noise will help and would be a huge factor if it was in NO. Its going to be a battle 

i just think its funny everyone counting out the vikings forget they have the numner one defense and playing lights out at home

I love viking defense. Better than legion of boom at their peak. Tough sledding for brees and co. Vikings offense very capable too. Very good receivers backs and o line. Keenum gettin it done. Well coached team. But no super bowl host has ever even made it to conference final. I think viking ride that defense alllll the way. 

glta 

Cam torched that secondary. Ever since Vacarro was hurt and out for the year, that young and talented secondary has been out of position often.

It is Keenum's 1st playoff game, and experience does matter. But he is the #1 dvoa QB in the NFL, and sports the 3rd best QBR which is the best among active QB's in the NFL(Watson #1, and Wentz #2)

Cam...#22 dvoa and #21 QBR

Then you got Diggs and Thielen at WR...a much more dangerous WR combo than Funchess(who played with one arm) and I couldn't even name the other WR for Carolina.

Olsen>Rudolph...just by name alone. Olsen #50 dvoa, Rudolph #15 dvoa.

Plenty of weapons on this Vikings offense, and a very balanced attack from Pat Shurmur.

Here's a shocker...Cam we know runs and runs often, mostly designed and a dual threat. But did you know...Keenum is the #1 dvoa rushing QB in the NFL? He's averaging 8.18 ypc, mostly on scrambles. So the dude know when to tuck it and run, and makes the most of the field.

Saints by 10

Let me start with this....I HATE the saints.

But when this line came out, I decided to not play with my local book bc of my wagering limits. I am flying into Vegas on Sunday alone to watch the two games - I will be wagering a lot on the +4. No real desire for me to take the ML here, but I will have lots of action on the spread.

I have followed Keenum for a long time (I live in Texas, he went to UH) and the kid is a stud. But this is Keenum's first playoff game - and he is playing against one of the alltime best. Yes - historically, the Saints do not play well on the road (Same as Pittsburgh) but at least this is in a dome where Brees and co are comfortable and FAST. Biggest part of the bet here is taking Brees plus points in a playoff game against a young inexperienced Keenum.

Losing their stud rookie RB didn't seem to phase them all that much as McKinnon has been just fine. BUT the Saints have been decent at stopping the run the past few weeks. What I worry about is stopping McKinnon as a pass catcher...look what Christian McCaffrey did to them yesterday.

Look who Keenum has started against this year:

Pittsburgh - KEENUM first start - scored 9 points and lost by 20 (granted this was AT Pitt)

Tampa- scored 34 - great game by Keenum/Diggs - Tampa secondary was depleted that game and all year with injuries

Chicago twice - scored 20 and 23 points

Detroit twice - scored 7 points and lost game 1 at home, scored 30 and won on thanksgiving

Green Bay twice (without Rodgers) - non competitive games - scored 23 and 16

Baltimore- scored 24 at home, but only 180 yards, no TDs, 1 int - game was a FG battle

Cleveland - doesnt count, its Cleveland!

Washington - doesnt count, its Washington! Keenum looked good depsite two interceptions

Rams -impressive 24-7 win

Falcons - scored 14 in a close game

Carolina- scored 24 in a loss - threw 2 int again

Cincy - scored 34 at home near end of year, but defensive TD and Cincy was horrid this year.

 

The total for this game is 46. The spread is telling you that New Orleans will score 20+ points. They have certainly averaged more than that. Can MN score 24-27? Based on the above, I don't think so without a defensive or special teams score.

In the first meeting of these two teams (WEEK 1!) Minnesota won by 10 behind a hell of a game by Dalvin Cook who set up play action for Sam Bradford who threw for nearly 350 yards! 1) they dont have cook anymore - McKinnon and Murray are totally different backs. New Orleans Defense is much better than they were in Week 1 and the offense is gelling with Kamara/Ingrim one-two punch. If MN stops the run, Brees has Thomas, Ginn, and Snead AND Kamara out of the backfield to contend with.

Anyway - good luck!

Let me know if anyone else will be around - I am heading to ARIA!

IMO, Minny wins this game - too well rested but they will probably leave the back door open with conservative playcalling.  I like the over...should trade some TDs in the first half...thinking 37-27.

I also think Minny wins this game. That D is nasty and Zimmer is a damn good coach. Now, with that said, I’m thinkng there’s a chance we see -3 at some point between now and kickoff. This line is definitely not gonna get any larger, so Viking backers might be wise to wait and see. With the way the media is slurping at Brees’ shaft and talking down Keenum like he’s gonna gag on it, this line is sure to shrink as Joe Public consumes more and more of that delicious Brees flavored Cool-Aid.

Very well done.
No need to go anywhere else but for this write up if you lie the Saints.

Nip and tuck but playoff ex. by Brees + Payton will carry the day in crunch time.

Saints 23-20

Word of caution using the Carolina game as a gauge. The was the Vikings third straight road game and fifth road game in six weeks if I recall correctly. It was an awful situational spot for them. I bet on Carolina that game and the situation was the reason why.

@Polar Bear, I was mentioning Carolina vs Saints in the wildcard game.

I was also on Carolina in that game that you mention, remember that spot well.

That Sir Has To Be One Of The Most Absurd Things I've Ever Heard....

Historically speaking "playoff experience" doesn't mean as much as you might think.

1) QB's: Drew Brees is 7-5 in the post-season, Case Keenum is 0-0. QB's making their first playoff appearance and are home in the divisional round are 16-11 SU since 1990.

2) Head coaching: Sean Payton is 7-4 in the postseason, including a super bowl victory, and Mike Zimmer is 0-1. The parameters are as follows: team won in the wild card round last week, are on the road in the divisional round this week and the road team's head coach previously won a super bowl. That previous super bowl experience means nothing as the road teams falling under those parameters, like the Saints do this weekend, are 4-20 in the divisional round since 1990.

This could be a one possession game throughout, if it comes down to that who do you trust more, Keenum (no playoff experience) or Drew Brees (future Hall of Famer with 11 postseason games and won Super Bowl).  Also huge coaching edge to Peyton over Zimmer from experience, although Peyton could make boneheaded decision which could bite them, Vikes beat Saints in week 1 by 10 before we knew how good both these teams are, I think Saints turn the tables.  Saints could be bad on the road, but this is a dome.  Who makes the big mistake in the 4th quarter with the game n the line?  Saints win by 3......

Oh pardon me bud,  my bad, I had read that on my phone sitting in the dentist office and did not get the full scope of it, thought you meant that viking/panthers game, I have been hearing that game referenced a few times already since that game ended sunday night is why I guess

Don't be deceived! The NFL wants two grizzled veteran QBs battling it out in the SB with one walking away victoriously and sailing off into the sunset ala Peyton Manning. Oh, this week will be an epic battle with it coming down to the wire, but in the end a phantom holding call or pass interference against the Vikes will lead to a Saints victory. N.O. moneyline to the bank because like Lola, what the NFL wants the NFL gets....

Don't expect Brees to pass for another 400 yards. That Vikings defense is number 1 for a reason. In a hostile environment, the Saints will struggle. 

Love the Saints ML here.  

Fair points....however no D. no matter how good it is and the Vikes have the best D. in the NFL along with Jack.....cannot shut down everything......ESP. vs the opp. end of the scale.....top type O. in the NFL........Carl leaned toward stopping the run in the last game after giving up 34 and 31 pts. in their 1st 2 games vs the Saints by just playing a base D. and it still did not help them as the Saints scored ho hum 31. This is the ultimate pick your poison OFF. in the NFL.....the Saints. The Saints have not been top 5 or 6 in Off.(mostly 1 or 2) in the last 12 years with Brees and Payton.......the greatest streak of top finishes on either Off. or Def. in modern NFL history for nothing......they have seen it all...the only Dif. this year is they have their best running option ever (and best combination in the NFL) to go with the passing machine Brees.....so pick 1 to shut down....the other will burn you......maybe they won't get to 400  total yards in this game but it will be close but they will score into the 20s....can the Vikes score in the high 20's min. to get the cover or even the win??........high teens or very low to mid 20's seem to be their probable total with Case....looking at their last 10 games or so.....Esp. considering the Saints have given up an ave. of less than 20pts. in their last 10 Defensively with the Saints last 5 on the road being 19pts. ag. also. IMOP that # is about perfect.


Saints 23-20

This should not be a tough decision.  Been to every home Viking game in person this year so biased but, stats:

Vikings 7-1 at home.  Lone loss came in game Delvin Cook blew out knee and team went in tank emotionally after.

Vikings allowing 12.5 points per game at home -- most of them in garbage time when they give away a late TD.

Saints 4-4 on the road.  Scored 19 and 17 in two dome road games.  Brees can't communicate and can't score.  19 at Minne misleading as 10 points were given to them late in exchange to run clock.

Brees 1-5 on road in playoff games.

Saints D still sucks.  Everyone think they got better but, just played Minnesota and New England who are much better than Saints in weeks 1 and 2 then beat a bunch of crappy offenses (Miami, Chicago, Green Bay, Buffalo, Tampa, etc) 

I'd guess something like 31-14 Vikings as D beats O in playoffs every time.

The Saints got lucky beating Carolina. 

Man was I wrong about this game when I said the line would not get any larger and could possibly hit -3 at some point. Despite the overwhelming Drew Brees media hype machine it has now gone up to Minny -4.5 or -5 at virtually every book. This is not a good sign whatsoever for those Saints ML wagers. Good luck to all whatever side you are on!