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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Are the Bears being disrespected?

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    Greyhound
    Europa
    Duderino
    KktdocT
    Werker
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    Greyhound
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 12:51 PM ET #1

    Won the NFC North last year,  came very close to making the Super Bowl,  blow out Atlanta in the first game this year,  and they were good on the road too last year.

    Getting almost a TD vs the Saints?      

    Bears seem like a dog that could win straight up to me.   

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    Won the NFC North last year,  came very close to making the Super Bowl,  blow out Atlanta in the first game this year,  and they were good on the road too last year.

    Getting almost a TD vs the Saints?      

    Bears seem like a dog that could win straight up to me.   

     
    Europa
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 12:53 PM ET #2

    Cutler and Bears looked good last week, now we will see how really good they're this week in NO.

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    Cutler and Bears looked good last week, now we will see how really good they're this week in NO.

     
    Duderino
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 1:31 PM ET #3

    I agree
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    I agree
     
    Greyhound
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 1:39 PM ET #4

    Saints are going to be without one of their starting corners (Tracy Porter),  their starting #1 wide receiver (Marques Colston),  their starting defensive end (Will Smith), and their starting strong safety is questionable (Roman Harper).


    That's a secondary that didn't play very well against Aaron Rodgers last week.   


    Another questionable thing about the Saints is their O-Line.    The guards are good but the Tackles (Bushrod and Strief) and the Center (100 yr old Olin Kreutz) are a little shaky.  

    Julius Peppers vs Jermon Bushrod?    Run for your life Brees.  


    The Bears O-Line is a little shaky too though.    

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    Saints are going to be without one of their starting corners (Tracy Porter),  their starting #1 wide receiver (Marques Colston),  their starting defensive end (Will Smith), and their starting strong safety is questionable (Roman Harper).


    That's a secondary that didn't play very well against Aaron Rodgers last week.   


    Another questionable thing about the Saints is their O-Line.    The guards are good but the Tackles (Bushrod and Strief) and the Center (100 yr old Olin Kreutz) are a little shaky.  

    Julius Peppers vs Jermon Bushrod?    Run for your life Brees.  


    The Bears O-Line is a little shaky too though.    

     
    Greyhound
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 1:48 PM ET #5

    And if Roy Williams is out for the Bears that could be a blessing in disquise because a lot of people think Johnny Knox is a better receiver anyway.   


    Last year in Week 2,  the Bears went into Dallas as 7 point dogs and won 27-20 after barely beating the Lions in Week 1 with the  help of that controversial TD reversal against Calvin Johnson at the end of the game.    

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    And if Roy Williams is out for the Bears that could be a blessing in disquise because a lot of people think Johnny Knox is a better receiver anyway.   


    Last year in Week 2,  the Bears went into Dallas as 7 point dogs and won 27-20 after barely beating the Lions in Week 1 with the  help of that controversial TD reversal against Calvin Johnson at the end of the game.    

     
    KktdocT
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 2:22 PM ET #6

    Cutler still at QB?

    maybe, that's why.

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    Cutler still at QB?

    maybe, that's why.

     
    Greyhound
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 2:29 PM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by KktdocT:

    Cutler still at QB?

    maybe, that's why.





    1. Jay Cutler vs. The Saints' Secondary

    This is the unquestioned biggest matchup of the game. The Saints' secondary is nothing to be too proud of, but Cutler will have to decide that. When Jay Cutler has a rating over 100, we are 16-0. If he has a good game, the Bears probably win. If he has a bad game, the Bears probably lose.


    Cutler has good track record indoors: It's dome sweet dome for Bears QB Jay Cutler heading into a Week 2 road trip against the Saints. In Cutler's last four games indoors, he has completed 66.9 percent of his passes (81 for 121) for 975 yards, 10 touchdowns and no interceptions. In his only matchup in his career against the Saints in 2008, which wasn't in a dome, Cutler threw for 264 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. New Orleans did allow Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers to rack up 312 passing yards and three touchdowns in Week 1. 
    (Updated 09/15/2011)


    Cutler is coming off a pretty strong performance in Week 1, throwing for 312 yards and two touchdowns against the Falcons. It seems the matchup in Week 2 is a favorable one for Cutler, but the Saints are very good at home. They were on the road last week when Green Bay burned them for all those yards. You might consider starting Cutler because of his history indoors and the shaky performance New Orleans turned in last week, but he is still looking like a No. 2 QB in most formats for Week 2.
    (Updated 09/15/2011).

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    Quote Originally Posted by KktdocT:

    Cutler still at QB?

    maybe, that's why.





    1. Jay Cutler vs. The Saints' Secondary

    This is the unquestioned biggest matchup of the game. The Saints' secondary is nothing to be too proud of, but Cutler will have to decide that. When Jay Cutler has a rating over 100, we are 16-0. If he has a good game, the Bears probably win. If he has a bad game, the Bears probably lose.


    Cutler has good track record indoors: It's dome sweet dome for Bears QB Jay Cutler heading into a Week 2 road trip against the Saints. In Cutler's last four games indoors, he has completed 66.9 percent of his passes (81 for 121) for 975 yards, 10 touchdowns and no interceptions. In his only matchup in his career against the Saints in 2008, which wasn't in a dome, Cutler threw for 264 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. New Orleans did allow Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers to rack up 312 passing yards and three touchdowns in Week 1. 
    (Updated 09/15/2011)


    Cutler is coming off a pretty strong performance in Week 1, throwing for 312 yards and two touchdowns against the Falcons. It seems the matchup in Week 2 is a favorable one for Cutler, but the Saints are very good at home. They were on the road last week when Green Bay burned them for all those yards. You might consider starting Cutler because of his history indoors and the shaky performance New Orleans turned in last week, but he is still looking like a No. 2 QB in most formats for Week 2.
    (Updated 09/15/2011).

     
    Greyhound
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 2:35 PM ET #8

    Bears were 5-2-1 against the spread on the road last year,   9-6-1 overall ATS.


    Saints were 4-4 against the spread at home last year ,  7-9 overall ATS


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    Bears were 5-2-1 against the spread on the road last year,   9-6-1 overall ATS.


    Saints were 4-4 against the spread at home last year ,  7-9 overall ATS


     
    Werker
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 3:14 PM ET #9

    The Bears were so lucky last year it's ridiculous. Let's go through last year, game by game:

    W: Detroit: Got lucky that Megatron placed the ball on the ground to nullify the game winning TD catch.

    W: @Dallas: Decent win. Took advantage of Romo throwing 2 INTs

    W: GB: Green Bay still reeling from their early season injuries gave up 18 penalties for 150 yards and still only lost by 3.

    L: @NYG: Giants pass rush destroyed their o-line and won 17-3, with 10 sacks.

    W: @Carolina: Jimmy Clausen/Matt Moore.

    L: Seattle: Seahawks got 6 sacks and ran for over 100 yards to win fairly easily.

    L: Washington: Deangelo Hall had 4 INTs against Cutler, basically just exploiting Cutler being Cutler.

    W: @Buffalo: It was the 2010 Bills (0-8 at that point).

    W: Minnesota: Favre threw 3 INTs, as he did every game last year.

    W: @Miami: Nice lucky break to catch Thingpen as the Miami QB. He was hapless and Miami couldn't move the ball.

    W: Philadelphia: This was their best win of the year. Quality win, no doubt about it. Not taking anything away from it.

    W: @Detroit: Facing detroit with Drew Stanton as QB, another lucky break for them. Still had to come from behind in the 4th.

    L: New England: Demolished, as they should have been.

    W: @Minnesota: Favre went out early and Joe Webb took over. Oh yeah, Adrian Peterson was out. 

    W: NYJ: Solid win in a shootout with another defensive oriented team. One of two quality wins I credit them.

    L: @GB: Played a gritty defensive game in a relatively respectable loss (considering they could have sat their starters) away to a division rival.

    Won a playoff game at home against possibly the worst playoff team in NFL history, and then knocked out by the Packers.

    In 5 of their 11 wins they played against a 2nd or 3rd string QB (not counting Vick). In another one, they played against a team that just lost their starting running back. Two others were against the Vikes at full strength and the Bills; hardly impressive. 

    They had two really good wins against the Eagles and Jets. And the last was against a frankly mistake-ridden Cowboys team. 

    This is not a team that deserves the respect of a normal #2 seed. If the Packers had not given away that first game against them, they don't even make the playoffs!

    They're not better this year.
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    The Bears were so lucky last year it's ridiculous. Let's go through last year, game by game:

    W: Detroit: Got lucky that Megatron placed the ball on the ground to nullify the game winning TD catch.

    W: @Dallas: Decent win. Took advantage of Romo throwing 2 INTs

    W: GB: Green Bay still reeling from their early season injuries gave up 18 penalties for 150 yards and still only lost by 3.

    L: @NYG: Giants pass rush destroyed their o-line and won 17-3, with 10 sacks.

    W: @Carolina: Jimmy Clausen/Matt Moore.

    L: Seattle: Seahawks got 6 sacks and ran for over 100 yards to win fairly easily.

    L: Washington: Deangelo Hall had 4 INTs against Cutler, basically just exploiting Cutler being Cutler.

    W: @Buffalo: It was the 2010 Bills (0-8 at that point).

    W: Minnesota: Favre threw 3 INTs, as he did every game last year.

    W: @Miami: Nice lucky break to catch Thingpen as the Miami QB. He was hapless and Miami couldn't move the ball.

    W: Philadelphia: This was their best win of the year. Quality win, no doubt about it. Not taking anything away from it.

    W: @Detroit: Facing detroit with Drew Stanton as QB, another lucky break for them. Still had to come from behind in the 4th.

    L: New England: Demolished, as they should have been.

    W: @Minnesota: Favre went out early and Joe Webb took over. Oh yeah, Adrian Peterson was out. 

    W: NYJ: Solid win in a shootout with another defensive oriented team. One of two quality wins I credit them.

    L: @GB: Played a gritty defensive game in a relatively respectable loss (considering they could have sat their starters) away to a division rival.

    Won a playoff game at home against possibly the worst playoff team in NFL history, and then knocked out by the Packers.

    In 5 of their 11 wins they played against a 2nd or 3rd string QB (not counting Vick). In another one, they played against a team that just lost their starting running back. Two others were against the Vikes at full strength and the Bills; hardly impressive. 

    They had two really good wins against the Eagles and Jets. And the last was against a frankly mistake-ridden Cowboys team. 

    This is not a team that deserves the respect of a normal #2 seed. If the Packers had not given away that first game against them, they don't even make the playoffs!

    They're not better this year.
     
    dogunder
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 3:19 PM ET #10

     chicago cubs
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     chicago cubs
     
    dogunder
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 3:20 PM ET #11

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    Ace77
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 3:22 PM ET #12

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    Greyhound
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 3:30 PM ET #13

    Well Werker,   they sure blew the doors off Atlanta in Week 1.    And I'm a Packer fan so I know they played the Packers tough all 3 games last year and the Packers have a high flying offense just like the Saints.     Dallas was still a team with high expectations and a lot of hope last year in Week 2.    Also beat Jets and Eagles.

    I'm sure you could go throw every teams schedule and find games that they were lucky to win.    Maybe not as many as the Bears but at least a few. 


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    Well Werker,   they sure blew the doors off Atlanta in Week 1.    And I'm a Packer fan so I know they played the Packers tough all 3 games last year and the Packers have a high flying offense just like the Saints.     Dallas was still a team with high expectations and a lot of hope last year in Week 2.    Also beat Jets and Eagles.

    I'm sure you could go throw every teams schedule and find games that they were lucky to win.    Maybe not as many as the Bears but at least a few. 


     
    tjohnsont
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 3:31 PM ET #14

    It's not the Bears people have no respect for, it's Cutler.  The issue is if the Bears line can hold the Saint's D line.  

    It's obvious that Cutler can throw.  He just isn't the same under pressure.

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    It's not the Bears people have no respect for, it's Cutler.  The issue is if the Bears line can hold the Saint's D line.  

    It's obvious that Cutler can throw.  He just isn't the same under pressure.

     
    Greyhound
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 3:32 PM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by Ace77:



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    Quote Originally Posted by Ace77:



     
    dogunder
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 3:33 PM ET #16

     ace77
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    Greyhound
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 3:44 PM ET #17

    "Won a playoff game at home against possibly the worst playoff team in NFL history, and then knocked out by the Packers."






    Do you mean that same "worst playoff team in NFL history" that the Saints lost to in Round 1 of the playoffs last year?     

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    "Won a playoff game at home against possibly the worst playoff team in NFL history, and then knocked out by the Packers."






    Do you mean that same "worst playoff team in NFL history" that the Saints lost to in Round 1 of the playoffs last year?     

     
    MDAAKD
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 4:28 PM ET #18

    Werker - I agree with you.  The Atlanta game last week was a good win for Chicago, however I am not impressed.  Atlanta's tackling was horrible.  2 screen passes went for 50 plus yards, a fumble recovery in the EZ, and 3 drops by the Falcons' secondary. 

    I'm not saying that this team isn't good, I just think that New Orleans is a better football team.  This line is screaming to take the Bears.  I would definately be hesitant to bet the Bears here (just like betting the Chargers last week was a suckerbet).  7 points to last year's #2 seed is too good to be true..

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    Werker - I agree with you.  The Atlanta game last week was a good win for Chicago, however I am not impressed.  Atlanta's tackling was horrible.  2 screen passes went for 50 plus yards, a fumble recovery in the EZ, and 3 drops by the Falcons' secondary. 

    I'm not saying that this team isn't good, I just think that New Orleans is a better football team.  This line is screaming to take the Bears.  I would definately be hesitant to bet the Bears here (just like betting the Chargers last week was a suckerbet).  7 points to last year's #2 seed is too good to be true..

     
    MrArmageddon
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 4:32 PM ET #19

    Quote Originally Posted by Werker:

    The Bears were so lucky last year it's ridiculous. Let's go through last year, game by game:

    W: @Dallas: Decent win. Took advantage of Romo throwing 2 INTs
    Good thing Tony felt like throwing two INTs. The defense had nothing to do with those occurring. Cutler posted a 137 passer rating.

    W: GB: Green Bay still reeling from their early season injuries gave up 18 penalties for 150 yards and still only lost by 3.
    GB just committed all those penalties regardless of what the Bears did? It's purely coincidence that all of Rodgers' worst games are against the Bears. The Bears are lucky he is always off when they play the same, simple defense every time.

    W: Minnesota: Favre threw 3 INTs, as he did every game last year. You say this like there wasn't a defense on the field and just stationary players and Favre fucked up. INTs don't just happen. Adrian Peterson was in.


    W: @Detroit: Facing detroit with Drew Stanton as QB, another lucky break for them. Still had to come from behind in the 4th.
    Why was Stanton in? Oh yeah, Julius Peppers broke Stafford's shoulder...

    W: @Minnesota: Favre went out early and Joe Webb took over. Oh yeah, Adrian Peterson was out.
    Favre went out early? He just didn't have it and chose to go out early? He didn't get pummeled or anything, did he?



    Guess what, genius? The NFL is making a new rule. At the end of the year, they are going to review all the games and ignore wins and losses and instead set the playoffs based on shoulda's and coulda's and almost wons.

    It is stupid to go through the schedule with your bias and look at what everyone else did to contribute to their team losing to the Bears as opposed to looking at what the Bears did to win. You don't just fall ass-backwards into 11 wins, a division championship (the division the Super Bowl champs are in, no less), a top 5 defense, and the NFC #2 seed in the NFL.

    I could argue that the Packers aren't as good as people say because Cutler "went out" in the NFC title game and they were lucky to play a 3rd stringer. I don't though, because it isn't like Cutler slipped on some ice or tripped coming out of the locker room. He got hurt as a result of getting hit... by the Packers. Much like Favre and Stafford "went out." You say went out like it's voluntary. It isn't. They were forced out by the Bears. You refer to INTs by the opposition like they're voluntary and not forced. Lose the bias and pick up some logic and we'll talk.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Werker:

    The Bears were so lucky last year it's ridiculous. Let's go through last year, game by game:

    W: @Dallas: Decent win. Took advantage of Romo throwing 2 INTs
    Good thing Tony felt like throwing two INTs. The defense had nothing to do with those occurring. Cutler posted a 137 passer rating.

    W: GB: Green Bay still reeling from their early season injuries gave up 18 penalties for 150 yards and still only lost by 3.
    GB just committed all those penalties regardless of what the Bears did? It's purely coincidence that all of Rodgers' worst games are against the Bears. The Bears are lucky he is always off when they play the same, simple defense every time.

    W: Minnesota: Favre threw 3 INTs, as he did every game last year. You say this like there wasn't a defense on the field and just stationary players and Favre fucked up. INTs don't just happen. Adrian Peterson was in.


    W: @Detroit: Facing detroit with Drew Stanton as QB, another lucky break for them. Still had to come from behind in the 4th.
    Why was Stanton in? Oh yeah, Julius Peppers broke Stafford's shoulder...

    W: @Minnesota: Favre went out early and Joe Webb took over. Oh yeah, Adrian Peterson was out.
    Favre went out early? He just didn't have it and chose to go out early? He didn't get pummeled or anything, did he?



    Guess what, genius? The NFL is making a new rule. At the end of the year, they are going to review all the games and ignore wins and losses and instead set the playoffs based on shoulda's and coulda's and almost wons.

    It is stupid to go through the schedule with your bias and look at what everyone else did to contribute to their team losing to the Bears as opposed to looking at what the Bears did to win. You don't just fall ass-backwards into 11 wins, a division championship (the division the Super Bowl champs are in, no less), a top 5 defense, and the NFC #2 seed in the NFL.

    I could argue that the Packers aren't as good as people say because Cutler "went out" in the NFC title game and they were lucky to play a 3rd stringer. I don't though, because it isn't like Cutler slipped on some ice or tripped coming out of the locker room. He got hurt as a result of getting hit... by the Packers. Much like Favre and Stafford "went out." You say went out like it's voluntary. It isn't. They were forced out by the Bears. You refer to INTs by the opposition like they're voluntary and not forced. Lose the bias and pick up some logic and we'll talk.
     
    Greyhound
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 4:38 PM ET #20

    Looks like Werker just got owned.   


    MrAmageddon

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    Looks like Werker just got owned.   


    MrAmageddon

     
    JMC1984
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 4:42 PM ET #21

    You could go through a list of the Packers' wins last year and say the same thing. It's just nitpicking. The Bears are good people. Their defense is great (only D that didn't allow a TD last week), and they have a lot of weapons on offense, not to mention the best kick returned in NFL history.

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    You could go through a list of the Packers' wins last year and say the same thing. It's just nitpicking. The Bears are good people. Their defense is great (only D that didn't allow a TD last week), and they have a lot of weapons on offense, not to mention the best kick returned in NFL history.

     
    Werker
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 5:00 PM ET #22

    Quote Originally Posted by MrArmageddon:



    Guess what, genius? The NFL is making a new rule. At the end of the year, they are going to review all the games and ignore wins and losses and instead set the playoffs based on shoulda's and coulda's and almost wons.

    It is stupid to go through the schedule with your bias and look at what everyone else did to contribute to their team losing to the Bears as opposed to looking at what the Bears did to win. You don't just fall ass-backwards into 11 wins, a division championship (the division the Super Bowl champs are in, no less), a top 5 defense, and the NFC #2 seed in the NFL.

    I could argue that the Packers aren't as good as people say because Cutler "went out" in the NFC title game and they were lucky to play a 3rd stringer. I don't though, because it isn't like Cutler slipped on some ice or tripped coming out of the locker room. He got hurt as a result of getting hit... by the Packers. Much like Favre and Stafford "went out." You say went out like it's voluntary. It isn't. They were forced out by the Bears. You refer to INTs by the opposition like they're voluntary and not forced. Lose the bias and pick up some logic and we'll talk.

    Greyhound, get control.

    Armageddon, when I mentioned those INT games, I am referencing QBs that do throw INTs against average defenses. Romo had a 11/7 TD/INT ratio in 2010. Favre had a 11/19 TD/INT ratio in 2010. In the instance of Romo, I credit the Bears with a decent win, but hardly a quality victory with the way the Boys were playing at the time. And if you think the Bears were better than average by sweeping the Vikes, you're the one who's biased. Favre was throwing picks to just about anyone who wanted one last year. The Vikes had exactly one quality win last year, and it was a pretty flukey game against the Eagles in week 16. They were awful. 

    As far as the first GB game goes, it was an embarrassing outing for the Packers, and you'd be crazy to think that it was a quality win for the Bears. The fact that they only won by 3 when given 150 penalty yards makes it difficult to say that the Bears won that game more than the Packers lost it. 

    I don't doubt the ferocity of the Bears pass rush. They put Stafford out of that game with a monster hit. Still Shaun Hill should have beaten them in game 1 of the season series if Calvin Johnson didn't make an absolutely boneheaded mistake of placing the ball on the ground after he caught it, one that really goes against the spirit of the game and the rule. In game 2 of the season series, I think the Lions might have won with Shaun Hill, but Drew Stanton was one level down the ladder too far. 

    Furthermore, I'm not saying they shouldn't have been the #2 seed, just that they shouldn't be handicapped as highly as most #2's historically. Who said they shouldn't be the #2 seed? If there were justice in football, the Seahawks wouldn't have even been in the playoffs, but the seeding is how it is, and I'm fine with it. There's always going to be a flaw in the system as far as that goes. 

    This is not a vendetta against the Bears. It's a review of why I am fine fading them against good teams. They barely faced any of them last year at anything close to full strength. And when they did, (New England in week 14 at home, Jets in week 16 at home, Green Bay in week 17 and NFC Championship) they were a losing football team.
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrArmageddon:



    Guess what, genius? The NFL is making a new rule. At the end of the year, they are going to review all the games and ignore wins and losses and instead set the playoffs based on shoulda's and coulda's and almost wons.

    It is stupid to go through the schedule with your bias and look at what everyone else did to contribute to their team losing to the Bears as opposed to looking at what the Bears did to win. You don't just fall ass-backwards into 11 wins, a division championship (the division the Super Bowl champs are in, no less), a top 5 defense, and the NFC #2 seed in the NFL.

    I could argue that the Packers aren't as good as people say because Cutler "went out" in the NFC title game and they were lucky to play a 3rd stringer. I don't though, because it isn't like Cutler slipped on some ice or tripped coming out of the locker room. He got hurt as a result of getting hit... by the Packers. Much like Favre and Stafford "went out." You say went out like it's voluntary. It isn't. They were forced out by the Bears. You refer to INTs by the opposition like they're voluntary and not forced. Lose the bias and pick up some logic and we'll talk.

    Greyhound, get control.

    Armageddon, when I mentioned those INT games, I am referencing QBs that do throw INTs against average defenses. Romo had a 11/7 TD/INT ratio in 2010. Favre had a 11/19 TD/INT ratio in 2010. In the instance of Romo, I credit the Bears with a decent win, but hardly a quality victory with the way the Boys were playing at the time. And if you think the Bears were better than average by sweeping the Vikes, you're the one who's biased. Favre was throwing picks to just about anyone who wanted one last year. The Vikes had exactly one quality win last year, and it was a pretty flukey game against the Eagles in week 16. They were awful. 

    As far as the first GB game goes, it was an embarrassing outing for the Packers, and you'd be crazy to think that it was a quality win for the Bears. The fact that they only won by 3 when given 150 penalty yards makes it difficult to say that the Bears won that game more than the Packers lost it. 

    I don't doubt the ferocity of the Bears pass rush. They put Stafford out of that game with a monster hit. Still Shaun Hill should have beaten them in game 1 of the season series if Calvin Johnson didn't make an absolutely boneheaded mistake of placing the ball on the ground after he caught it, one that really goes against the spirit of the game and the rule. In game 2 of the season series, I think the Lions might have won with Shaun Hill, but Drew Stanton was one level down the ladder too far. 

    Furthermore, I'm not saying they shouldn't have been the #2 seed, just that they shouldn't be handicapped as highly as most #2's historically. Who said they shouldn't be the #2 seed? If there were justice in football, the Seahawks wouldn't have even been in the playoffs, but the seeding is how it is, and I'm fine with it. There's always going to be a flaw in the system as far as that goes. 

    This is not a vendetta against the Bears. It's a review of why I am fine fading them against good teams. They barely faced any of them last year at anything close to full strength. And when they did, (New England in week 14 at home, Jets in week 16 at home, Green Bay in week 17 and NFC Championship) they were a losing football team.
     
    Greyhound
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 5:22 PM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by MDAAKD:

    This line is screaming to take the Bears.  I would definately be hesitant to bet the Bears here (just like betting the Chargers last week was a suckerbet).  7 points to last year's #2 seed is too good to be true..



    Let me ask you something?  Do you have any stats on how often this angle produces a winner for you?    It's another one of those statements that you see endlessly on Covers but nobody knows how often it wins.   Just like "the public side",  the square side",  etc.


    9 dogs covered in week 1

    7 favorites covered in week 1

    the average winning / losing margin against the point spread was 12 points.


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    Quote Originally Posted by MDAAKD:

    This line is screaming to take the Bears.  I would definately be hesitant to bet the Bears here (just like betting the Chargers last week was a suckerbet).  7 points to last year's #2 seed is too good to be true..



    Let me ask you something?  Do you have any stats on how often this angle produces a winner for you?    It's another one of those statements that you see endlessly on Covers but nobody knows how often it wins.   Just like "the public side",  the square side",  etc.


    9 dogs covered in week 1

    7 favorites covered in week 1

    the average winning / losing margin against the point spread was 12 points.


     
    MDAAKD
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 5:41 PM ET #24

    No, I don't have any stats regarding that claim.  I objectively put a spread on each game before I look them up. 

    Vegas is begging for people to take the Bears here with this line.  There are always a couple 'too good to be true' lines every week.  The Titans game is another one this week.

     

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    No, I don't have any stats regarding that claim.  I objectively put a spread on each game before I look them up. 

    Vegas is begging for people to take the Bears here with this line.  There are always a couple 'too good to be true' lines every week.  The Titans game is another one this week.

     

     
     
    Steve_Holt
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2011 - 6:21 PM ET #25

    W: Detroit: Got lucky that Megatron placed the ball on the ground to nullify the game winning TD catch.

    Yep, should have lost this one. Dumb rule.

    W: @Dallas: Decent win. Took advantage of Romo throwing 2 INTs

    Ya, good teams force turnovers and take advantage of them. Romo didn't just hand the ball to the Bears did he?

    W: GB: Green Bay still reeling from their early season injuries gave up 18 penalties for 150 yards and still only lost by 3.

    Still reeling? They were 2-0 going into that game. Why do you think they committed 150 yards worth of penalties? It's because they were consistently beat. Particularly by Peppers. They had a choice. Commit the penalty or give a free shot at Rodgers/give the receiver a wide open reception/etc. They chose to take the penalties.

    L: @NYG: Giants pass rush destroyed their o-line and won 17-3, with 10 sacks.

    They were destroyed by that D-Line. But as bad as they were destroyed it was still a tie game leading up to the 4th quarter before Cutler had to leave with a concussion. And I really don't need to explain how bad Todd Collins is. Probably still would have lost but Collins gave them no chance.

    W: @Carolina: Jimmy Clausen/Matt Moore.

    It's nice you mention Clausen and Moore. Why no mention of Todd Collins? Collins threw for 32 yards, 0 td's, and 4 int's that game. Bears still won by 17.

    L: Seattle: Seahawks got 6 sacks and ran for over 100 yards to win fairly easily.

    Bad team game. Every team has them. Only lost by 3

    L: Washington: Deangelo Hall had 4 INTs against Cutler, basically just exploiting Cutler being Cutler.

    Despite your clear hatred for him, 4 int's isn't Cutler being Cutler. He didn't throw more than 2 int's in any other game last season and hadn't thrown more than 1 int in any game up until this one. Just wasn't his day. Still only lost by 3.

    W: @Buffalo: It was the 2010 Bills (0-8 at that point).

    Ya, they were 0-8. But they also went into playoff bound Baltimore and took them to OT 2 weeks before this game. Then they went into playoff bound KC and took them to OT the next week. Then they have gone 5-4 after the Bears and one of those losses came at Super Bowl bound Pittsburgh in OT. Would have beat them had Stevie Johnson not flat out dropped an open TD in OT. So is having to travel to Canada and beating this Bills team really that pathetic? I don't think so.

    W: Minnesota: Favre threw 3 INTs, as he did every game last year.

    Actually Favre threw 3 INT's only 2 other times last year. I guess the Bears defense once again gets no credit, huh?

    W: @Miami: Nice lucky break to catch Thingpen as the Miami QB. He was hapless and Miami couldn't move the ball.

    Bears win by 16. I'm sure Henne would have made the difference . Henne wouldn't have been able to help his defense stop giving up 3rd down conversions over and over again.

    W: Philadelphia: This was their best win of the year. Quality win, no doubt about it. Not taking anything away from it.

    Yep

    W: @Detroit: Facing detroit with Drew Stanton as QB, another lucky break for them. Still had to come from behind in the 4th.

    And Stanton played a very good game. 102 rating. Still wasn't as good as Cutler though. Despite coming from behind in the 4th they still won by 4 and had the ball in Lions territory when they decided to run out the clock.

    L: New England: Demolished, as they should have been.

    Demolished. Would have been a completely different game if it wasn't for blizzard like conditions. Not saying they would have won but it wouldn't have been a 36-7 beatdown.

    W: @Minnesota: Favre went out early and Joe Webb took over. Oh yeah, Adrian Peterson was out.

    Because Favre and AP would have been the difference in a 26 point beatdown? Because Favre and AP would have been the difference in Cutler throwing 3 TD's on the way for a 40 point game for the Bears?

    W: NYJ: Solid win in a shootout with another defensive oriented team. One of two quality wins I credit them.



    L: @GB: Played a gritty defensive game in a relatively respectable loss (considering they could have sat their starters) away to a division rival.

    They may not have sat their starters but that doesn't mean they were trying their hardest to win. All you have to do is look at the play selection compared to every other game the Bears played since the bye week for proof of that. Still never trailed until the 4th quarter in spite of that.

    Won a playoff game at home against possibly the worst playoff team in NFL history, and then knocked out by the Packers.

    The same horrible playoff team that knocked out the Bears opponent this week? You loved mentioning all these games the Bears got "lucky" to play vs backup QB's but fail to mention the Bears playing with their 2nd and 3rd string QB for half the GB game. So by your logic this must have been a "lucky" Packers win, right?

    Bears have since opened the 2011 season with an absolute beatdown vs some peoples Superbowl pick.

    Bears are 9-3 in their last 12 games. Throw out the Week 17 GB game and they are 9-2 last 11 with their 2 losses vs the Patriots in blizzard conditions and the Super Bowl champs while playing without their QB for a half. Pretty impressive.  Why did I choose the last 11? Because this is the clear point when this Bears team changed from a pass happy team to a balanced/run first team in this Mike Martz offense. They are not the same team they were the first 7 games of last season. I threw out the GB game because (a) they didn't need this game and (b) they clearly went away from this new offensive approach despite Forte gashing the Pack D for 6.1 YPC when he did run. They didn't want to divulge too much knowing there was a good chance they would meet in the playoffs a couple weeks later, which they did.

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    W: Detroit: Got lucky that Megatron placed the ball on the ground to nullify the game winning TD catch.

    Yep, should have lost this one. Dumb rule.

    W: @Dallas: Decent win. Took advantage of Romo throwing 2 INTs

    Ya, good teams force turnovers and take advantage of them. Romo didn't just hand the ball to the Bears did he?

    W: GB: Green Bay still reeling from their early season injuries gave up 18 penalties for 150 yards and still only lost by 3.

    Still reeling? They were 2-0 going into that game. Why do you think they committed 150 yards worth of penalties? It's because they were consistently beat. Particularly by Peppers. They had a choice. Commit the penalty or give a free shot at Rodgers/give the receiver a wide open reception/etc. They chose to take the penalties.

    L: @NYG: Giants pass rush destroyed their o-line and won 17-3, with 10 sacks.

    They were destroyed by that D-Line. But as bad as they were destroyed it was still a tie game leading up to the 4th quarter before Cutler had to leave with a concussion. And I really don't need to explain how bad Todd Collins is. Probably still would have lost but Collins gave them no chance.

    W: @Carolina: Jimmy Clausen/Matt Moore.

    It's nice you mention Clausen and Moore. Why no mention of Todd Collins? Collins threw for 32 yards, 0 td's, and 4 int's that game. Bears still won by 17.

    L: Seattle: Seahawks got 6 sacks and ran for over 100 yards to win fairly easily.

    Bad team game. Every team has them. Only lost by 3

    L: Washington: Deangelo Hall had 4 INTs against Cutler, basically just exploiting Cutler being Cutler.

    Despite your clear hatred for him, 4 int's isn't Cutler being Cutler. He didn't throw more than 2 int's in any other game last season and hadn't thrown more than 1 int in any game up until this one. Just wasn't his day. Still only lost by 3.

    W: @Buffalo: It was the 2010 Bills (0-8 at that point).

    Ya, they were 0-8. But they also went into playoff bound Baltimore and took them to OT 2 weeks before this game. Then they went into playoff bound KC and took them to OT the next week. Then they have gone 5-4 after the Bears and one of those losses came at Super Bowl bound Pittsburgh in OT. Would have beat them had Stevie Johnson not flat out dropped an open TD in OT. So is having to travel to Canada and beating this Bills team really that pathetic? I don't think so.

    W: Minnesota: Favre threw 3 INTs, as he did every game last year.

    Actually Favre threw 3 INT's only 2 other times last year. I guess the Bears defense once again gets no credit, huh?

    W: @Miami: Nice lucky break to catch Thingpen as the Miami QB. He was hapless and Miami couldn't move the ball.

    Bears win by 16. I'm sure Henne would have made the difference . Henne wouldn't have been able to help his defense stop giving up 3rd down conversions over and over again.

    W: Philadelphia: This was their best win of the year. Quality win, no doubt about it. Not taking anything away from it.

    Yep

    W: @Detroit: Facing detroit with Drew Stanton as QB, another lucky break for them. Still had to come from behind in the 4th.

    And Stanton played a very good game. 102 rating. Still wasn't as good as Cutler though. Despite coming from behind in the 4th they still won by 4 and had the ball in Lions territory when they decided to run out the clock.

    L: New England: Demolished, as they should have been.

    Demolished. Would have been a completely different game if it wasn't for blizzard like conditions. Not saying they would have won but it wouldn't have been a 36-7 beatdown.

    W: @Minnesota: Favre went out early and Joe Webb took over. Oh yeah, Adrian Peterson was out.

    Because Favre and AP would have been the difference in a 26 point beatdown? Because Favre and AP would have been the difference in Cutler throwing 3 TD's on the way for a 40 point game for the Bears?

    W: NYJ: Solid win in a shootout with another defensive oriented team. One of two quality wins I credit them.



    L: @GB: Played a gritty defensive game in a relatively respectable loss (considering they could have sat their starters) away to a division rival.

    They may not have sat their starters but that doesn't mean they were trying their hardest to win. All you have to do is look at the play selection compared to every other game the Bears played since the bye week for proof of that. Still never trailed until the 4th quarter in spite of that.

    Won a playoff game at home against possibly the worst playoff team in NFL history, and then knocked out by the Packers.

    The same horrible playoff team that knocked out the Bears opponent this week? You loved mentioning all these games the Bears got "lucky" to play vs backup QB's but fail to mention the Bears playing with their 2nd and 3rd string QB for half the GB game. So by your logic this must have been a "lucky" Packers win, right?

    Bears have since opened the 2011 season with an absolute beatdown vs some peoples Superbowl pick.

    Bears are 9-3 in their last 12 games. Throw out the Week 17 GB game and they are 9-2 last 11 with their 2 losses vs the Patriots in blizzard conditions and the Super Bowl champs while playing without their QB for a half. Pretty impressive.  Why did I choose the last 11? Because this is the clear point when this Bears team changed from a pass happy team to a balanced/run first team in this Mike Martz offense. They are not the same team they were the first 7 games of last season. I threw out the GB game because (a) they didn't need this game and (b) they clearly went away from this new offensive approach despite Forte gashing the Pack D for 6.1 YPC when he did run. They didn't want to divulge too much knowing there was a good chance they would meet in the playoffs a couple weeks later, which they did.

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