Well, you can’t use the location as a factor. Okay, lets go to Vegas. Say Caesars Palace has 51% on New Orleans, does that mean that the MGM, Mirage, and Palms all have to as well?
If you think that Covers.com or VegasInsider or Sports Insights has a true number on each book combined, you’re a fucking idiot too. All of those numbers are generated from FREE pickem contests and public polls. The numbers mean NOTHING.
Most important out of all of this, these are tallying the percentage of BETS not MONEY. What the hell difference does it make to me as a bookmaker if I have 100 clients who each bet $1 on New Orleans and 1 that bets $50,000 on San Francisco? I have a 99.1% consensus on New Orleans, but that 0.09% will put me on the street.
How do you really know which side is which? You don’t. How do you really know who ALL the books need? You don’t.
This is just a prime example of how POWERFUL and INFLUENTIAL the media is today especially when it comes to sports gambling. Another prime example of such is the New Orleans Saints.
I will start off by pointing out the clear over compensation for the Saints in this game. My lines that I released reflected the true value of this game, PK. Vegas and offshore released NO -3 and now NO -4. Here is why I consider this line to be highly inflated. Typical home field in the playoffs reflects 5-6 points in the line meaning according to Vegas if this game was played in the Superdome, the Saints would be a 9.5 to 10.5 point favorite just like they were last week. In other words, this line is saying that the Lions and 49ers are equal teams.
I am not sure there is one person that could agree with that last statement. This raises the question, What is SF really worth in this game? The true line of a game played in NO would be NO -6.5 or -7 meaning the Saints are dead even with the 49ers on an even field. Going to play on the road the Saints are all of the sudden 3 points better than the 49ers. The Saints are 3 points BETTER than on a Neutral Field even though everyone including the Saints players admittedly state that the Saints are worse on the road? This line is inflated by 4 points and your telling me there is value in taking the Saints!? Not a chance in hell. I get a free 4 points along with a better defense, better special teams and more familiarity with the surface and almost a better match-up in 9 of the 11 positions either side of the ball. This
line should be a PK certainly not -4.
New Orleans has been on National TV four times since their winning streak both SU and ATS began. They hung 49 on the Giants, 31 on the Lions, 45 on the Falcons and 45 on the Lions again. Each game was played at home in the Superdome, each game was over the total. The betting audience has a false view on what the Saints really are. Just like the first time you meet a girl. You hang out at her place alone or with a couple friends for the first little while, then you finally go out to a bar and she turns out to be a complete person and fucks you over by banging every guy in sight.
The betting audience has a good thing going with the Saints and they have yet to be proven otherwise. No one betting this game has a valid argument to back the Saints besides, they are explosive offensively, they have Drew Brees and Alex Smith sucks.
This is not a quarterback vs. quarterback game guys. This is a game of match-ups. New Orleans is able to expose and capitalize on almost every team because of their speed. Sure they have quick players, but they are built to play in the dome. First of all, going into New Orleans and playing in the Superdome is not an easy thing to do for any team, period. You put any team up against a flurry of offense and speed on the carpet and you have a recipe for a beat down. Exactly what has happened in six of the past eight weeks.
The Saints now go to Candlestick to play the best defense in the Conference and most importantly play on grass. Here is info I love see and have in my corner. The grounds crew at Candlestick fertilized on Sunday and have watered the absolute PISS out of the field since. The crew also negated giving the grass a final cut on Friday and will not cut on Saturday before the game. This grass is going to be long, this grass is going to be thick and it is going to be SLOW. Forget the fact that the 49ers tallied 48 sacks in the regular season and have a phenomenal pass rush, they are going to be playing on a surface they are familiar with vs. a team that is out of their element.
The 49ers had an incredible +28 turnover margin in the regular season. The Saints are not terrific at holding on to the ball. Even in games where they dominate fumbles are frequent and there are often numerous chances for interceptions. When a player has a slight doubt in his feet, it makes a world of difference for ball control. The Saints also capitalize on numerous opponent turnovers because teams are consistently coming from behind and forced to pass more than usual. This is not part of the Niners plan. San Francisco is going to be all about clock management and ball control. This offense makes NO mistakes what so ever and has proven that over the 16 games they played this season. Ball control is number one for this Niners team today.
The Saints were the likely opponent for San Francisco which means the 49ers more or less had two weeks to prepare as well as one full game of scouting. I find that in the playoffs especially, all the players rather than just the harder working ones come COMPLETELY prepared for their match-up. Every player for the Niners watched last weeks game and they all have a head start on their match-ups rather than simply trying to beef up all you can in the four days prior to a regular season game.
Don’t let the fact that many people are picking the upset fool you here, it should happen. Four points, way to many.
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