Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots
I love betting on good teams with Playoff revenge, as those teams tend to have a huge motivational edge in these games. I took the Dolphins ML last week against ATL as I knew there was no way the Falcons would be focused on a terrible Miami team with the biggest revenge game in NFL history just 7 days out. The Falcons were ridiculed all offseason about their 28-3 debacle, and have circled this game since the start of the beginning of the season. The Falcons will be extremely focused and will play far better this Sunday night than they did last week.
It might sound like I’m betting Atlanta here, but I’m not. One of the reasons I faded the Giants last SNF was that everyone was highly overstating the loss of the Giants WRs, as the backup WRs that were playing in the game still have been on the practice squad for years and knew the system and routes (being in the same system is key), while their defense was still very good. Well, I think the loss of both the Falcons OC and DC in the offseason are being understated, especially the departure of Kyle Shanahan who was a tremendous OC in this league. Last year, the Falcons were averaging 415 yards on offense per game, but this year just 378 - that is a big drop off considering they’ve only faced one top 10 defense so far. They are also averaging 9.9 points less per game, while Julio Jones is averaging the least yards per game in his entire career. All direct correlations of losing Shanahan.
Regardless, I do expect the Falcons to move the ball against New England, as this is such a big game for them and I’m sure they’ve been gameplanning for this for a while. The Pats definitely don’t have a great defense as they were actually terrible to start this season, and it appears like they’ve continued to struggle over the past few weeks, but that’s not entirely true. NE only won by 5 in Tampa Bay two weeks ago, but that was a road game on 3 days rest without Gronkowski in the game (mind it they are already missing Edelman so a 2nd target for Brady being out is that much more important). The Jets played them very tough last week, but the Pats still won by 7 despite having 2 turnovers and a missed field goal. That was also a road game.
The Falcons will be extremely dialed in for this game, but Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck are the most motivated duo in the NFL. Brady wants to win this game just as bad as the Falcons do to show their Superbowl comeback was no fluke. Falcons have playoff revenge, and are off 2 straight losses, but their is no motivational edge in this matchup.
I'm right more times than not on the Pats and I have them as the most underrated team in the NFL this week. Tom Brady has the best record in NFL history on primetime, and with the Pats being 0-3 ATS at home to start the season, I expect to see a complete game from New England for the first time all year as they are all of a sudden starting to be doubted. Let's not forget Vegas is listing the Pats as the clear favorite, far ahead of anybody else, to win the Superbowl - despite all of their struggles thus far.
- Patriots -3 -115 (5x)
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