Last week was a bad beat for sure. If there was a game LW that looked like the refs were in on that was it. The "down by contact" overruling at the end was crap. It was even a topic on sports radio the next day. There was ZERO clear-cut evidence that that defender was touched & therefore the call of a TD should have stood. Then after that with 1st and goal from the 1 they were pushed back due to a taunting penalty that was questionable. Then in OT they get another 1st & goal from the 1 & ANOTHER taunting penalty forces them into a FG victory leaving the hook to hook me with. That turn of events kept me from a 4-1. Anyway, on to my analysis.
This really is a match-up of opposites. Sacksonville are cream of the crop & Cleveland is sweeping the floors everywhere they go. The Browns do have a decent run defense. They actually lead the league at 3.1 YPC but that's all they have going for them. That is not a concern to me though. The disarray that revolves around the Browns franchise & the top flight defense by the Jags will keep them under 14 pts & the Browns simply aren't good enough to keep JAC out of the endzone.
CLE allows scoring 76% of the time. The only defense that is worse in the redzone is the Dolphins defense.
The Jags RZDEF is coming in at 43.8% which is good enough for 5th best.
On 3rd down the discrepancy is even more so. CLE 3rd down offense is the worst in the league converting a mere 29% of the time. On the flip side the Jags 3rd down defense is top a notch at 33.6% - tied for 7th with the Ravens.
The Jags also beat the Browns in both offensive & defensive negative pass play percentage. The Jags are averaging 4.4 sacks per game while only giving up 1.6 per game. The Browns are giving up sacks every 14 drop backs & the Jags are getting them every 8 drop backs. CLE is throwing a pick every 19 pass attempts as well. Whereas the Jags are only throwing a pick every 26 pass attempts.
The Jags also own a passer rating differential of 58.28. This one will get out of hand early too. CLE offense is only generating 6.3 first half points & the Jags are generating 12.8 first half points.
Book & be ready to bank it.... Jags by double digits.
FINAL SCORE: Jags 27 Brows 13
0
JAC -7.5
Can the Jags do it? Of course I think so.
Last week was a bad beat for sure. If there was a game LW that looked like the refs were in on that was it. The "down by contact" overruling at the end was crap. It was even a topic on sports radio the next day. There was ZERO clear-cut evidence that that defender was touched & therefore the call of a TD should have stood. Then after that with 1st and goal from the 1 they were pushed back due to a taunting penalty that was questionable. Then in OT they get another 1st & goal from the 1 & ANOTHER taunting penalty forces them into a FG victory leaving the hook to hook me with. That turn of events kept me from a 4-1. Anyway, on to my analysis.
This really is a match-up of opposites. Sacksonville are cream of the crop & Cleveland is sweeping the floors everywhere they go. The Browns do have a decent run defense. They actually lead the league at 3.1 YPC but that's all they have going for them. That is not a concern to me though. The disarray that revolves around the Browns franchise & the top flight defense by the Jags will keep them under 14 pts & the Browns simply aren't good enough to keep JAC out of the endzone.
CLE allows scoring 76% of the time. The only defense that is worse in the redzone is the Dolphins defense.
The Jags RZDEF is coming in at 43.8% which is good enough for 5th best.
On 3rd down the discrepancy is even more so. CLE 3rd down offense is the worst in the league converting a mere 29% of the time. On the flip side the Jags 3rd down defense is top a notch at 33.6% - tied for 7th with the Ravens.
The Jags also beat the Browns in both offensive & defensive negative pass play percentage. The Jags are averaging 4.4 sacks per game while only giving up 1.6 per game. The Browns are giving up sacks every 14 drop backs & the Jags are getting them every 8 drop backs. CLE is throwing a pick every 19 pass attempts as well. Whereas the Jags are only throwing a pick every 26 pass attempts.
The Jags also own a passer rating differential of 58.28. This one will get out of hand early too. CLE offense is only generating 6.3 first half points & the Jags are generating 12.8 first half points.
Book & be ready to bank it.... Jags by double digits.
We all know that these are both good teams. But when you look inside the numbers you will see that LA is a better road team than the Vikes are a home team. Of curse Minny holds one of the best HFA in the league but the Red Hot Rams are coming to town and their numbers speak louder than the Vikings numbers do.
Enough with that.
First and foremost... Who have each of these played? Where did the 7 wins come from? Against who? When you look you see that the Vikings came out on top against WAS, CLE, BAL, GB, CHI, TB & in week 1, the Saints. Not that impressive is it? Switch over and you find out that the Rams took care of business against HOU AZ NYG JAC DAL SF & IND. Not that impressive is it? Actually that is just to prove a point that even though these two have good records their performances have not truly been tested.
Step into this game and the LAR #1 3rd down offense will make it happen against the MIN #2 3rd down defense. It will be decided right there. The Rams #1 8.9 YPPA along with their #5 TD Pass every 18 completions will also be in rhythm Sunday. Even though MIN has a respectable sack rate of 13 good for 2.2% the Rams are a 11 sack rate good for 8.5%. Essentially this will be a battle.
FINAL SCORE: Rams 30 Vikings 23
Note: I typed that up late last night so if its incoherent that is why.
0
LAR +2
On to the next one... All Rams. All day.
We all know that these are both good teams. But when you look inside the numbers you will see that LA is a better road team than the Vikes are a home team. Of curse Minny holds one of the best HFA in the league but the Red Hot Rams are coming to town and their numbers speak louder than the Vikings numbers do.
Enough with that.
First and foremost... Who have each of these played? Where did the 7 wins come from? Against who? When you look you see that the Vikings came out on top against WAS, CLE, BAL, GB, CHI, TB & in week 1, the Saints. Not that impressive is it? Switch over and you find out that the Rams took care of business against HOU AZ NYG JAC DAL SF & IND. Not that impressive is it? Actually that is just to prove a point that even though these two have good records their performances have not truly been tested.
Step into this game and the LAR #1 3rd down offense will make it happen against the MIN #2 3rd down defense. It will be decided right there. The Rams #1 8.9 YPPA along with their #5 TD Pass every 18 completions will also be in rhythm Sunday. Even though MIN has a respectable sack rate of 13 good for 2.2% the Rams are a 11 sack rate good for 8.5%. Essentially this will be a battle.
FINAL SCORE: Rams 30 Vikings 23
Note: I typed that up late last night so if its incoherent that is why.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Hot Forum Topics
