Vegas set this line based on public perception of baltimore, and a little bit indi.
Cinci, beat the Ravens in Balt fair and square the first time they met, having similar records, Balt was a heavy 8 point fav. The public obviously was more faithfull to the ravens over cinci due to last years performance(Even though Palmers back now better then ever lol),
So the second time these teams met, In Cinci, Balt was -3.5 IN CINCI!!! EVEN THOUGH CINCI HAD BEATEN BALT ALRDY IN BALT!!! (And unlike the SD, DEN rematch scenario, there are no injuries/returning players)
Indi, due to some close wins (It doesn't matter how you win if you win) has the public thinking 'THEY ARE DUE FOR A LOSS' And a hungry Baltimore (Who in all fairness gets rolling usually late in the season) is going to win.
No matter how you put it, the only way I can see the Colt's 'DESERVING' an even line, would be playing @ Pitt, NE, Minn or NO.
I believe the line should have been -3.5 for the colts based on performance.
****HOWEVER**** Like I said, Baltimore always gets rollin' this time of a year, and a weak Colts secondary will help Balt's O put up numbers aswell, (Although vice-versa applies to this statement, not because Balt's secondary sucks, but because Its manning-wayne)
I believe this game is a gamble and could go either way, although the vegas line caters to public perception. I'm going to sit back and watch this controversy unfold, and people kick themselves, when there are much safer bets this week.
BOL
NFL Season: 53-43-4
I'm taking my annual NFL road trip this weekend to Baltimore. Friends and I made the plans earlier this year. All Giant fans, we never thought the Colts would be undefeated and I didnt think the Ravens would be struggling BUT I couldnt agree with your write more.
I pictured this game to be Colts -6.5, okay maybe hoping, so I could jump on Baltimore and enjoy a good underdog cover this Sunday. Unfortunatly the Colts -1 has taken me by surprise.
I do think Vegas is praying on a public perception that the Baltimore defense is great when most of us unerstand its not what it once was BUT again, the potential for an impressive game is there. Sunday is Baltimore's (and Ray Rays) opportunity to prove they can still step it up. They will come to play.
Also, do not be fooled by Monday Nights game plan and the lack of points against the Browns. Running up the score was never their goal, they wanted to work on their running game and control the clock, which kinda happend. And dont over look that they did shut out a professional football team (professional..ehh debatable) but for the sake of arguement a shut out is impressive, especially Monday Night on the road.
The colts will also have to deal with the challangs of playing outdoors under expected inclemate weather (sucks for me too). All and all, its tough to go undefeated and this could be a trap game. I would have felt much better at +6.5 but now Ill be forced to lose big or enjoy a very very tough cover.
GL
and let's take BAL +1
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