NFL Football - Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco 49ers - Monday December 19, 2011 8:35 pm ATS: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-115)
The bookmakers are going to clean up on this one tonight.
Everyone is grabbing the Steelers and backing up truck loads of money. May I ask why?
Well, perhaps asking isn’t the thing to do when I can just tell you. The Steelers are the second most popular bet team by the public over the last four years as an underdog. They average a consensus backing in excess of 67% when they are getting points. That means over the past four NFL Seasons, at all of my locations, the Steelers have had $3 to every $1 of their opponents when listed as an underdog.
Tonight is no different. The Steelers are getting just shy of the $3/$1 ratio expected and I am perfectly fine with it. Infact, I have bumped the line up in favor of the 49ers, not because of the questions about Roethlisberger earlier in the week, but because of large bets rolling in on the 49ers.
Three of the five biggest players I cater to all have bet the 49ers tonight. To give you an idea of how they do, the biggest of the three hit Kansas City, one of the others had Washington, both dogs winning outright. The third player had San Diego as well as the Jets, splitting 1-1.
Roethlisberger will start tonight, everyone can put that outcry to bed. The spread has reflected this change at numerous locations dropping down to -1. I think this game is decided at virtually every other position besides quarterback, I have this game still at SF -3 across all our locations.
I look at San Francisco as a team. 13 straight games without allowing a rushing TD. 35 straight games without allowing a 100 yard rusher. Never lost back to back games SU or ATS. This team is absolutely scary to move the ball against and will always come to play especially off a loss. Tonight’s game will mark the first Monday Night appearance for the enthusiastic leader of the 49ers, Jim Harbaugh. You can guarantee he will be looking to impress in his first MNF showcase. I wonder how much information he has received from his father as well as his son on this Steelers team. No one knows the Steelers better than brother John.
Pittsburgh on the other hand is coming off a Thursday Night game last week against Cleveland where they looked less than impressive. They are starting to become a band-aid of a team with the injuries piling up. They will be without linebacker James Harrison for his hit on Colt McCoy and will be starting a late game three time zones off their norm. You never hear about this scenario because it is so rare. This game is a 5:30pst start, or 8:30est. However, the sun goes down in SF 40 minutes prior to kickoff rather than 3 ½ hours prior to late games on the east coast.
Contrary to what people may believe, this is what gets to players. Had it been a day game, not a huge issue, but this day will feel 3 ½ hours longer even though the game is played earlier.
To add further to the fatigue factor, the 49ers are one of the most physical teams in the league on either side of the ball. Pittsburgh does not back down from a physical challenge, but this will feel like a Ravens Steelers game to these players. I am not sure the Steelers who are in the shape they are in will be able to go the distance with this team that completely shuts down the run game and forces every offense to be extremely one dimensional. The Steelers offense goes with their run game. Ben is hobbled tonight and has always been below average away from Heinz Field. Ben has 7 TD’s and 7 INT’s so far this season away from home and may fall below the even mark tonight with a tough match up in San Francisco.
This game belongs to San Francisco, and so should your bet. Look for the Niners to win by more than a touchdown tonight.
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