Big Parlay Hedge Question

Hey, All.

back on September 9th I placed a $200 3team parlay for Bills (-300) Vikings (+240) and Seahawks (30–1) to win their Divisions.  Payout is $28,000.  

Did the same with Bengals in place of Vikings for $26,000 payout.

Any thoughts on how and when to hedge these.  looking for other perspectives and insight.  I understand the Niners and Ravens are the primary threats to these wagers.

Especially the first one as Vikings and Bills are *knock on wood* looking fairly secure.

Its early and anything can happen, but id say the bills 100% have that division locked up, the seahawks are in 1st place but i dont see them winning it, i actually think they go 3-5 or 4-4 2nd half and possibly finish 3rd in division, i think the 49ers end up winning it but the rams could get hot. Id say throw 3k on niners to win division, 1k on rams. Then adjust as the weeks go by.... side note, this was just quick off the top of my head without knowing the odds to win nfc west as of now, math is a huge part of it so my amounts would almost certainly be different than 3k 1k if i broke it down, but the teams to hedge with wouldnt because i feel barring catastrophic injuries to the bills and/or vikings, those divisions are going to those 2 teams... as far as the bengals part, you may have to let that ride a bit and just pray, but i see the ravens winning that division when all said and done... i actually just bet a prop the other day for bills/ravens to meet in afc championship. 

Gl with whatever you do... im deS tired right now, but if you shoot me your current division odds ill try to crunch it for you and give you a little more of a solid answer. And great bet by the way. 

@dduukkee

 Thanks for the solid input.  I will send a little more on Monday.  It helps to have others to bounce ideas off of.  Even when there is disagreement.  A variety of perspectives is helpful.  As the Niners and Ravens are the two teams that seem positioned to do me the most damage I have considered betting on each of them each week-or when the spread is somewhat tight to win.  Should they lose, it strengthens the chances of the parlay cashing.

Again, will send you more info Monday.

re Seattle I will add this:  They play two more games before the Niners play again.  Should they win in Arizona and the very very early game against Tampa in Germany before the Niners play the chargers next Sunday night….. divisional odds will be very interesting.

also I already have 1K on rams to MISS playoffs at +140.  I think they are toast.

and I have a solo Seahawks 100 to win 3100.

and I have Astros AL/Seahawks/Falcons 200 to win 26K

lol

I would make a large bet on the 49ers to win the NFC West as soon as possible. Any Seattle loss will cause the odds on the Niners to drop considerably, resulting in a far more expensive hedge. I think the current odds on the 49ers to win the division are about -140. I don't think you need to worry about the Rams. The Ravens would be an expensive hedge. (-400) I would wait to see what happens in the next week or two before taking any action there. Good luck.

@Jimmy_Cats

 Thanks

Agree with hedging 49ers at -130 to -140 asap. Can't pay -300 or worse with Ravens. Just have to hope to get lucky there.

Best way to play right now is moneyline parlays on 49er,s against seahawks. 

Best way to play right now is moneyline parlays on 49er,s against seahawks. 

The Vikings are so far out ahead that I wouldn't worry about them anymore. 

Buffalo is arguably the best team in the league. So it shouldn't matter what New England or Miami does in that division. Last year they already proved that when the division was on the line, that they'd come though. Even after New England won like 6 games in a row, Buffalo still got the division. 

There's probably some reversion coming for the Seahawks, but we're halfway through and they haven't come crashing down yet. Last year Geno actually played pretty well in the games he started. But he was underdog in all of them, and lost them all, but he covered every game. 

It was only a $200 bet. People assume everyone has thousands of dollars to hedge. If you do, then I would grab San Fran for around $3-4K now, then add more as we get closer to the end. The last thing you wanna do is put up $3-4K hedge and end up losing everything. 

If you don't have $3-4K you can afford to lose if everything goes wrong (like Arizona getting hot or an injury or New England winning the division), then sit tight, and wait til closer to the end. 

I do think the Niners sneak into the playoffs by the skin of their teeth though. Would be the biggest waste of draft capital ever to trade that many picks for Mccaffrey in the middle of the season, and not even make the playoffs.  

Also, the Cardinals are one of my best picks this week. So that Niners division line is only going to get more expensive later today. 

no reason to bet every game each week until the season is over. If you’re hedging the middle payout your best bet is adding different division winners. I think it might be early too. Who knows

It's just one game, but you may want to put a chunk on Arizona today if you can.

If Seattle were to win and go 6-3, it would put them in a much better position to win the division. 

But if Seattle loses today, which I think they will, they'll drop to 5-4, and they'll only be a half game up on SF for the division. SF also owns the tiebreak having beaten then badly already this season, and one meeting left. Basically if San Fran wins the second meeting, that could be it for the division.

Seattle's schedule is not easy to close the season. At Arizona, At Tampa Bay, Home Raiders, At LA Rams, vs. Carolina, vs. SF, At Kansas City, Vs. Jets, Vs. Rams. 

I see them going 4-5 to close the season. Puts them 9-8 final. 

great to read all the responses and I have considered virtually EVERYTHING that has been said.  I find it extremely helpful, though to challenge my thoughts with the reasoned perspectives of others.

I want to add that I AM a Seahawks fan, but I am also a gambler and study football closely.  I am a believer in Pete Carroll’s culture and I don’t think this team is going to fade with five of their last seven games at home.  

I do think that as far as their season Win TOTAL goes (and, thus, Division) these next two games are critical.  

AZ and Tampa are on the verge of a point of no return.  If Seattle can facilitate that, and hit their bye 7-3 or AT LEAST 6-4 then I feel very good or pretty good about their chances to win this Division. 

And Geno has frankly played like one of the top few quarterbacks in the league. He is dialed in to this offense.

Niners have the better players but Seattle has a better team.  Right now.

and yes I do not have thousands of dollars sitting around or I would strongly consider a 15 or 20 thousand hedge on the Niners in the next week or two. 

thanks again, everyone.  The conversation is part of what makes this so much fun.

Nothing against your logic.  I just can’t bet against Seattle games yet.  I believe they are the better team today.  Several metrics working in Cards’ favor but Seattle is 7-1-1 in last 9 in AZ.  AZ is 31st vs TEs and Seattle has the ability to feature them.  Divisional kitchen sink game for Arizona does concern me but I just can’t bet it that way.

re. SF loss.  

Seattle has been starting six rookies: they lost their first NFL road game in San Francisco’s home opener in week two on a short week coming off a huge emotional Monday night football win against the Broncos.  Couldn’t have been a worse spot for Seattle.  

Seattle can be a difficult place to play in Big games and Pete more or less owns San Fran (with a few exceptions).

We will see what the circumstances are for the rematch but obviously I am terribly afraid of that Niners team or we would not be having this conversation.

Again, I appreciate the insights.  They all carry weight.

While I don’t see it as easy-I do love 5 of final 7 being played at home.

Pete’s teams (with Russ) finish strong.  And Seattle’s defense has been trending upwards and Seattle has 6 rookies starting who are theoretically getting better as they get valuable experience.

I make a case for them because I believe in their chances to win this Division.

I see them finishing most likely with 10 wins but I think 11 is attainable.  12? Improbable.  Again, so much depends upon today, and vs Bucs in Germany.

thanks for the input!

Seattle +1  6-3 1st in NFC West

Minny +1   7-1 1st in NFC North

Cincy +1    5-4 2nd in AFC North

Buffalo -1   6-2 1st in AFC East

Atlanta-1    4-5 2nd in NFC South

@bestfightstory

Seattle winning yesterday put you in a much better spot than before. 

But circling back, if you don't have thousands of dollars sitting around, how were you proposing to hedge a $28,000 payout? The season was only halfway done before yesterday as well.  

Perhaps you just wanted the attention or wanted to brag a bit, which I don't really have a problem with. That was a longshot that will make you look very smart if it works out for you. 

@slamspurs

It was a legit inquiry.  

I am being transparent about my bets and my loyalties/allegiances/biases and my desire for other perspectives and my lack of readily available resources.  Nothing other.  

I have been here for ?15? years or more and didn’t have an active account for some of that time.  Rarely ever post but frequently read.  Attention isn’t the goal. 

Figured there might be some other options available to me that I have not considered.  This kinda action can twist your brain in knots and other voices can help untangle.  Maybe a different DIVISION WINNER parlay using Niners and a couple other teams for 3-5K?  PropSwap has crossed my mind to maybe sell one of my my positions.  Part of my goal was to just read the room and see how others felt about my bets’ chances.  I try to take in as much info as possible.  Biggest thing I am considering now is semi-weekly/selectively betting the Niners to win for like 1K per go.

I like Seattle and Atlanta and San Fran to all win in week 10 and I will be attending the game in Germany.  That I know, for certain.

thanks for the replies, all!

@bestfightstory

 What did you end up doing ?