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BIG PLAY ALERT: EAGLES PK OVER PACKERS, WEEK 3 PRESEASON

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Posted: #1
Guys....wanted to get your opinion on this pick as I am looking to place a very large wager on it.  I'm thinking the Eagles in week 3 preseason at a pick over the Packers because:

1. Eagles back up QB's are significantly better and more experienced than that of the Packers.  Eagle's QB's are: Bradford, Sanchez, Barkley, and Tebow; Packers QB's are Rodgers, Tolzien, Blanchard, and Hundley.

2. Scott Tolzien, the #2 QB, is undergoing concussion protocol as we speak.  Not sure how this will turn out but my guess is since this is a preseason game, the coaching staff will be careful and sit him.

3. Jordy Nelson was lost for the season their last game.  Not only will his individual contributions be missed (even if only for a drive or two), but also I think the coaching staff will want to be more careful with their other players (i.e. Scott Tolzien who was mentioned earlier and also TJ Lang who is the starting right guard and is also undergoing concussion protocol).

4. I am a firm believer in Chip Kelly, the system he runs, and the way he preps his players.  I have followed him since his college days and his team always comes out prepared and they are always well conditioned.  I think this is evidenced in their first 2 games of the preseason where the Eagles came out strong and beat the Colts and the Ravens by 36-10 and 40-17 respectively.

I have to admit I have not done a lot of preseason NFL betting in my lifetime so I am not sure if I am putting too much credence into any of these factors.  For those of you who have, what are your thoughts about this game?  Does it seem like a lock or are there things I am not considering here....please let me know!  I have been on a cold streak in MLB and am trying to make a big comeback here on this game.

 
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Posted: #2
Good write-up, good luck on your pick!


 
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Posted: #3
I took the Birds as well.  Their 2nd and 3rd teamers get more repst than any other 2md and 3rd team unit in the league.  Couple that w the fact that the Eagles are STACKED, depthwise, and I think its a good play.
 
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Posted: #4
 
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Posted: #5
Love it!
 
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Posted: #6
JBell13, thank you

Anyone else with any other thoughts on this game???  Any arguments to be made for backing Green Bay?  Input would be greatly appreciated
 
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Posted: #7
eagles arnt bad. id go eagles. they have good backups also
 
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Posted: #8
Real good backups.
 
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Posted: #9
Eagles have scored in every quarter..............
 
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Posted: #10
the eagle won 2-0 and had covered the ats way a lot more then the spread  .I would not put my money on the eagle especially the spread on them is only - 1.
 
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Posted: #11
this is the nfl business anything could happen .the bait is too good to be true. 
 
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Posted: #12
They were pick'em yest.  -1.5 today.

No Jordy Nelson.  Back up QB may be out w concussion.  GB's "O" will be "Handoff to Eddie Lacy on the right".  "Hand off to Eddie Lacy on the left".  GB gonna be looking just to get out of here w out injury.  Eagles run D is stout.  Deep at ILB.  Sick D line.  Better secondary.  WTFs.
 
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Posted: #13
@JBell13, my book actually has Philly at -2 now.

I think this can go up to 3, perhaps even a tad higher given the points you mentioned above.

I already put $2.5k on Philly at a PK and $1k on Philly at -1.  If this line goes up to 3, I may hedge a bit and put $1k on GB.

What would you do?
 
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Posted: #14
Correction....only have $2.5k on Philly at PK.  My friend helped me put the other $1k but accidentally placed it on Philly week 1.
 
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Posted: #15
I concur.
DM
 
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Posted: #16
I would stop betting on the game.  I like the Birds and really like the bet at PK, but its still pre-season.  What I would have told you to do is instead of putting $2.6k on Birds, see if you could get an alternative line (Birds giving like 7) and see what those odds are and maybe lat a little on that.  I wouldn't really look to hedge.  I like The Birds in this match-up.  Reg season where its all starters I might not, but knowing how deep the Eagles roster is and the fact that they'll be seeing ~ decent playing time...I just like them in htis match up a lot more than I would if it were the GB 1's going against the Philly 1's
 
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Posted: #17
I think I would bet the 2nd half  on Philly
 
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Posted: #18
I don't know CAL.....I might be the biggest sucker on covers...BUT I laid 500 on Philly as a pick em, on Monday, and there - 2.5 now.

Guess we will see.....just couldn't pass it up.
 
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Posted: #19
You're right JBell....good points there.  Will likely just keep things as is.  Do like the play as it stands.
 
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Posted: #20
I had been betting on a lot of nfl games at 1:00 pm on sunday last year or the couple years before and capping the game at that time .the chances  are 45 %L /55% w or may be 30/70 I lost a lot of $$$$ so i do not bet on games when nfl play a lot of game at once time any more .I do better at 4:25 games  and sunday night and Monday night game .I found a little secret in the sys cant's talk it here.but I stay away from philly that my opinon.if there is another way to communicate .I be glad to tell you.then u decide if I m right r wrong
 
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Posted: #21
That statement makes no sense and there's no way those chances apply because you have the option to pick either side.  If those were the real chances, the books would get crushed if everyone took the 55% chance winner in every game.
 
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Posted: #22
I've bet the Eagles against both the Colts and Ravens this preseason for a couple reasons. Namely, the depth at quarterback and Kelly's approach (he's looking to execute his offense and run a ton of plays no matter who's in the game). This line seems fishy to me with the Eggles coming off 2 blowouts and Sanchez/Barkley looking solid against 2nd/3rd string defenses. You just better pray Chip doesn't give Tebow extended run -- the guy has looked like absolute dogshit and I could not imagine having 2G's riding on a game with that loser holding the ball and running himself into sacks. Also, McCarthy coaches to win in the preseason...just a side note. 

IMO, Hundley has looked overwhelmed for GB and Tebow will for sure play most of the 4th and probably some of the 3rd quarter -- 2nd half under should a nice spot. 
 
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Posted: #23
BOL BRO
 
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BOL BRO
 
 
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Posted: #25
Hey Cal

Where i live, i get alot of Philadelphia coverage as well as sports talk radio. When i tell you that Eagles coverage on sports talk radio here dominates the day, thats not an understatement.

For the Eagles defense, this game is personal.

Players are talking about being embarrassed last year in Lambau to the tune of 53-20

The Eagles front 7 on defense is a top 10 unit easy and will limit Lacy's production.

Eagles depth at quarterback along with motivation from a good old fashion butt kicking last year will provide focus.


The play is either the Eagles or pass.

Good Luck 
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