Scala, I was on CSU and Penn State last night thanks to your write-ups!
Unfortunately I'm on the opposite side for this game. The Bills already lost too much to be relevant in the AFC wild card spot due to strong AFC West play. The Bengals, on the other hand are still quite in contention in the lowly south, but they essentially control their own destiny. I backed NYG on Monday because of the Lewis/Dalton suck on Prime Time factor, but I feel like the bounce back factor applies to the Bengals more than the Bills, even if the latter have lost the last 3.
Bengals at home, in a pissed off mentality, in a 1 o'clock forgettable game that no one cares about........ This is Dalton's time to shine. They're healthy, Eiffert is playing well and will cause match-up problems. Buffalo is porous vs. the run since switching back to a 3-4, their corners are alright but safety play is suspect. Also teams coming off a bye are doing terrible this year, in the ~20% ATS range, and Rex Ryan has also proved that he cannot rally his troops after a bye time and time again.
I see the Bengals dominating on both sides of the ball and cruising to an easy win, 27-17
As always, best of luck!
Cajun, from a mathematical perspective, the Bengals have a better shot given their divisional standing.
This is true.
But you have to remember something, there are only 16 games in football. That means that virtually every single team still has a shot at the playoffs today. Even the Jets at 3-7 have a shot. The Bengals have to jump 2 teams in their own division who are better. It's not going to happen. Suuma has this team pegged for under 9.5 wins for a reason (he's taking them today in the wrong spot through).
From a macro-perspective, the Bills are chasing the wild-card, one of the spots owned by the Raiders. They have to leapfrog others but not of the quality of the Steelers which the Bengals have to leap..
From that perspective it is far more realistic and convincing a sell for Ryan, his team, their and his mindset, to still be engaged in a playoff push. The Bengals at 3-5-1? Not so much in my opinion. Bills are one game away from .500 and really, they'd be over .500 with McCoy. The injury did them in these past 3. Their record would be flipped at a minimum.
Now they have Shaq Lawson, who is playing very well, and possibly Dareus so this defense, once patch-work is getting healthier with very big pieces returning.
Not really any good news on the Bengals front. Still have the same old ho-hum Marvin Lewis on the sidelines and Dalton has regressed as has the O-line. And again, for god's sake you can't stop the Giants from taking you out with the run?
If you look at all the other bye weeks, nothing compares to this. This is it for Rex. There is zero chance the Bengals dominate them. Sorry.
He will have every defensive package available and he'll throw it all at Cincy until the final gun. As will his players.
You bet the Bengals here, you bet against one the best motivators in all of football. He had to have them win in Foxboro against the undefeated Pats, Jacoby Brissett or otherwise. Bills dominated on the road.
Bengals are 3-6 ATS this year. Why all the clamoring to back them, never mind laying the points!
They covered against the Jets (one of the worst teams in football, especially after that Rams performance)
The Browns (the worst team in football and possibly will be one of the worst in league history)
And Miami, (in the game right before they found themselves and starting their current 4-0 streak.) That was a game Miami bottomed out in.
The Bills have covered 4, came .5 from covering in Miami (when they got hot), WITHOUT McCoy who is their heart to Tyrod's soul.
And then spilled their guts on the field in Seattle and needed Lynch to essentially amputate their kicker's leg to take a crucial 3 off the board. And that 3 mattered.
I am not impressed with Cincy AT ALL and as far as angles go, I don't see one other than returning home (Where they haven't been strong! 4-4 SU in their last 8 dating back to last season).
Not enough there for me to take Cincy. More than enough with the points and or ML for the Bills. Respectfully disagree.
He'll have them out to play today. 4-6 and he's done. You'll get a playoff effort from Buffalo and if not the bugle will be playing Taps.
Sox Sacker Shiek Sage Dark
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