Posted:
#1
2011-2012 NFL Record:
2 - 4 @ 33% for -2.4 Units
Week 2
#1: Miami Dolphins +3
Look, I know Miami is like 1-9 at home in their last 10 games (not confirmed) and they're coming off another home loss in week 1, but what have the Texans really done to deserve to be road favorites? This is a team that went 2-6 on the road last year, losing their last 6 away from home. Out of the 2 wins, one was a 3 point OT victory in Washington and the other one a TD win @ Oakland. The fact that Houston beat up on "Manning-less" colts who were lead by a 70-year old quarterback is not enough to instill them as 3-point favorites here. At the same time everyone looks at the final result of the NE/MIA game on Monday, but fails to look beyond just the final tally. Miami was in that game the whole time! We forget that Miami had a first-and-goal from the 1 with 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, and down 21-14. They of course failed to convert (how often do you see an NFL team not getting a TD when they have a 1st-and-goal from the 1???) and settled for a FG. Then down 31-17 in the 4th, again Miami failed to convert when they had a 1st and goal from the 10 this time. It of course led to a long 99-yard TD for Welker on the next play, but the Dolphins didn't quit, drove the field, scored another TD, and then had another strong drive to end the game as time expired and they ended up at NE 17. I don't want to take anything away from NE's defense or their offense (they were unstoppable and I don't think it would have mattered who played D that day!), but Miami looked very good in that game as well, hanging with arguably the best team in the NFL. Had they converted a couple of those 1st-and-goal scenarios and made a stop here and there, Dolphins could have been -3 favorites in this game on Sunday. Instead, they're home-doggies. I'll take it. Houston still hasn't proven anything, and even though they're a solid team, they're not as good as NE. Miami will be able to move the ball through the air (Henne threw for over 400 yards last week!!!) and their D is still very good. Davis and Smith are above-average corners, and I expect Wake to put a bit more pressure in this one as Shaub doesn't always get rid of the ball quickly like Brady did. I know it's early in the season but this is a HUGE, must-win game for the Dolphins. Going 0-2 at home to start the year would be a disaster to their season. I expect them to deliver.
#2: Indianapolis Colts +1.5 (You can play it at +2.5 I believe, but I wanted to grab + odds)
Last week when the Browns were -7 point home favorites against the Bengals, I think majority of professional bettors went: "What the Fudge?" Cleveland set as a strong favorite like that was something that experienced bettors aren't used to (not the public of course who were hammering the Browns). Well guess what? This week they're a road-favorite! This is simlar to the HOU/MIA game, where I had to look at the line and have a similar response. I know that Indy is missing Manning here and I know that they didn't look good last week. Well, when you look a little closer to last week's game against the Texans, Indy actually didn't play too bad in the 2nd half. Heck, they won the 2nd half of that one: 7-0! (Would have been 10-0 but Vinatieri missed an easy FG). Watching the game and then confirming through drive-charts, you'll see that Indy was able to move the ball offensively in the 2nd half. That tells me that Collins was getting more and more comfortable with the offense. Opening on the road against a division rival was very hard for him, especially since he didn't have much time with his receivers prior. Watching him get more and more comfortable (sure, Texans were playing more of a prevent D in the 2nd half but you still have to make the throws!) in the 2nd half was encouraging. It's easy to forget about Indy without Manning, but they still have Wayne, Collie, Garcon, Clark, and Addai on offense -- all pretty dynamic playmakers. They still have Freeney and Mathis on D, who are able to change the 'game' at any time. Heck, the D played pretty well in the 2nd half against Houston, causing a number of turnovers and preventing any scores. I expect that momentum to carry over into Indy's home opener this week. On the opposite end of the spectrum we have the Browns. They lost to the Bengals at home! That's inexcusable. They didn't play well at all and it wasn't surprising as they have a new coaching staff and a weak-armed QB leading the offense. In any case, I can't believe that the bookmakers have listed the Browns as road favorites in this scenario. I think we see Indy bounce-back in this game as they get a home win here.
2 - 4 @ 33% for -2.4 Units
Week 2
#1: Miami Dolphins +3
Look, I know Miami is like 1-9 at home in their last 10 games (not confirmed) and they're coming off another home loss in week 1, but what have the Texans really done to deserve to be road favorites? This is a team that went 2-6 on the road last year, losing their last 6 away from home. Out of the 2 wins, one was a 3 point OT victory in Washington and the other one a TD win @ Oakland. The fact that Houston beat up on "Manning-less" colts who were lead by a 70-year old quarterback is not enough to instill them as 3-point favorites here. At the same time everyone looks at the final result of the NE/MIA game on Monday, but fails to look beyond just the final tally. Miami was in that game the whole time! We forget that Miami had a first-and-goal from the 1 with 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, and down 21-14. They of course failed to convert (how often do you see an NFL team not getting a TD when they have a 1st-and-goal from the 1???) and settled for a FG. Then down 31-17 in the 4th, again Miami failed to convert when they had a 1st and goal from the 10 this time. It of course led to a long 99-yard TD for Welker on the next play, but the Dolphins didn't quit, drove the field, scored another TD, and then had another strong drive to end the game as time expired and they ended up at NE 17. I don't want to take anything away from NE's defense or their offense (they were unstoppable and I don't think it would have mattered who played D that day!), but Miami looked very good in that game as well, hanging with arguably the best team in the NFL. Had they converted a couple of those 1st-and-goal scenarios and made a stop here and there, Dolphins could have been -3 favorites in this game on Sunday. Instead, they're home-doggies. I'll take it. Houston still hasn't proven anything, and even though they're a solid team, they're not as good as NE. Miami will be able to move the ball through the air (Henne threw for over 400 yards last week!!!) and their D is still very good. Davis and Smith are above-average corners, and I expect Wake to put a bit more pressure in this one as Shaub doesn't always get rid of the ball quickly like Brady did. I know it's early in the season but this is a HUGE, must-win game for the Dolphins. Going 0-2 at home to start the year would be a disaster to their season. I expect them to deliver.
#2: Indianapolis Colts +1.5 (You can play it at +2.5 I believe, but I wanted to grab + odds)
Last week when the Browns were -7 point home favorites against the Bengals, I think majority of professional bettors went: "What the Fudge?" Cleveland set as a strong favorite like that was something that experienced bettors aren't used to (not the public of course who were hammering the Browns). Well guess what? This week they're a road-favorite! This is simlar to the HOU/MIA game, where I had to look at the line and have a similar response. I know that Indy is missing Manning here and I know that they didn't look good last week. Well, when you look a little closer to last week's game against the Texans, Indy actually didn't play too bad in the 2nd half. Heck, they won the 2nd half of that one: 7-0! (Would have been 10-0 but Vinatieri missed an easy FG). Watching the game and then confirming through drive-charts, you'll see that Indy was able to move the ball offensively in the 2nd half. That tells me that Collins was getting more and more comfortable with the offense. Opening on the road against a division rival was very hard for him, especially since he didn't have much time with his receivers prior. Watching him get more and more comfortable (sure, Texans were playing more of a prevent D in the 2nd half but you still have to make the throws!) in the 2nd half was encouraging. It's easy to forget about Indy without Manning, but they still have Wayne, Collie, Garcon, Clark, and Addai on offense -- all pretty dynamic playmakers. They still have Freeney and Mathis on D, who are able to change the 'game' at any time. Heck, the D played pretty well in the 2nd half against Houston, causing a number of turnovers and preventing any scores. I expect that momentum to carry over into Indy's home opener this week. On the opposite end of the spectrum we have the Browns. They lost to the Bengals at home! That's inexcusable. They didn't play well at all and it wasn't surprising as they have a new coaching staff and a weak-armed QB leading the offense. In any case, I can't believe that the bookmakers have listed the Browns as road favorites in this scenario. I think we see Indy bounce-back in this game as they get a home win here.
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