I love the Fins pick as well. I think they showed some serious ability against the Pats and will be able to contain the Texans quite a bit more than the Pats (and that still could have been a one score loss, easily).
I'm honestly not sure about the Browns/Colts game. I think it could go either way very easily and I'm laying off.
The Saints -6.5 is very likely a play for me. First off, you're counting out Moore way too early. It's looking like he will play after all, now that he's practiced in full two days in a row. Even if he is out, Meachem and Henderson are effective, and Sproles has shown he's more than worth his contract. The NO o-line is one of the best in the game, and Brees is not the type to be affected by a little pressure. The fact that they're playing in the Superdome as opposed to Soldier Field is a HUGE issue as well. The Chicago passing game is still far from all systems go. Forte is elite, but beyond him, that offense is VERY suspect. Two big plays accounted for their only two touchdown drives, and they were both from after the catch heroics on short routes. I think the Bears at home were able to exploit some major issues in the Falcons offense to look a lot better than they are. The Saints do not have these issues (even down Colston AND Moore).
I don't see how you can take the under in the GB/CAR game considering how selective you are. Even just an average team like AZ scored almost at will after Beason went down. The Panthers' defense wasn't exactly awesome before that, but then they lost their single best defensive player and now face possibly the best offense in the league. I don't see how the Pack is held to under 31 points at worst. If Carolina is as aggressive in their play calling as they were last week, I expect at least a few of those big play opportunities to be converted. I expect them to fall behind early and take a lot of chances. That usually leads to points for one side or the other.
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I love the Fins pick as well. I think they showed some serious ability against the Pats and will be able to contain the Texans quite a bit more than the Pats (and that still could have been a one score loss, easily).
I'm honestly not sure about the Browns/Colts game. I think it could go either way very easily and I'm laying off.
The Saints -6.5 is very likely a play for me. First off, you're counting out Moore way too early. It's looking like he will play after all, now that he's practiced in full two days in a row. Even if he is out, Meachem and Henderson are effective, and Sproles has shown he's more than worth his contract. The NO o-line is one of the best in the game, and Brees is not the type to be affected by a little pressure. The fact that they're playing in the Superdome as opposed to Soldier Field is a HUGE issue as well. The Chicago passing game is still far from all systems go. Forte is elite, but beyond him, that offense is VERY suspect. Two big plays accounted for their only two touchdown drives, and they were both from after the catch heroics on short routes. I think the Bears at home were able to exploit some major issues in the Falcons offense to look a lot better than they are. The Saints do not have these issues (even down Colston AND Moore).
I don't see how you can take the under in the GB/CAR game considering how selective you are. Even just an average team like AZ scored almost at will after Beason went down. The Panthers' defense wasn't exactly awesome before that, but then they lost their single best defensive player and now face possibly the best offense in the league. I don't see how the Pack is held to under 31 points at worst. If Carolina is as aggressive in their play calling as they were last week, I expect at least a few of those big play opportunities to be converted. I expect them to fall behind early and take a lot of chances. That usually leads to points for one side or the other.
Not knocking you, i am a new to this at , curious how can you say to play indy at +2.5 & not at +1.5 why does that 1 point makes a big difference on the play & i understand games are decided by a point but how many times does that make the difference Thank you
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Not knocking you, i am a new to this at , curious how can you say to play indy at +2.5 & not at +1.5 why does that 1 point makes a big difference on the play & i understand games are decided by a point but how many times does that make the difference Thank you
Not knocking you, i am a new to this at , curious how can you say to play indy at +2.5 & not at +1.5 why does that 1 point makes a big difference on the play & i understand games are decided by a point but how many times does that make the difference Thank you
what he is saying is that his book has a few options. You can play indy at +2.5 at the normal -110 or you can bet Indy at +1.5 and its +100 (even money.) He'd rather not pay the juice and hope the 1 point wont matter. And chance sare it won't.
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Quote Originally Posted by PBJRBON:
Not knocking you, i am a new to this at , curious how can you say to play indy at +2.5 & not at +1.5 why does that 1 point makes a big difference on the play & i understand games are decided by a point but how many times does that make the difference Thank you
what he is saying is that his book has a few options. You can play indy at +2.5 at the normal -110 or you can bet Indy at +1.5 and its +100 (even money.) He'd rather not pay the juice and hope the 1 point wont matter. And chance sare it won't.
Week 2 #1: Miami Dolphins +3 Look, I know Miami is like 1-9 at home in their last 10 games (not confirmed) and they're coming off another home loss in week 1, but what have the Texans really done to deserve to be road favorites? This is a team that went 2-6 on the road last year, losing their last 6 away from home. Out of the 2 wins, one was a 3 point OT victory in Washington and the other one a TD win @ Oakland. The fact that Houston beat up on "Manning-less" colts who were lead by a 70-year old quarterback is not enough to instill them as 3-point favorites here. At the same time everyone looks at the final result of the NE/MIA game on Monday, but fails to look beyond just the final tally. Miami was in that game the whole time! We forget that Miami had a first-and-goal from the 1 with 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, and down 21-14. They of course failed to convert (how often do you see an NFL team not getting a TD when they have a 1st-and-goal from the 1???) and settled for a FG. Then down 31-17 in the 4th, again Miami failed to convert when they had a 1st and goal from the 10 this time. It of course led to a long 99-yard TD for Welker on the next play, but the Dolphins didn't quit, drove the field, scored another TD, and then had another strong drive to end the game as time expired and they ended up at NE 17. I don't want to take anything away from NE's defense or their offense (they were unstoppable and I don't think it would have mattered who played D that day!), but Miami looked very good in that game as well, hanging with arguably the best team in the NFL. Had they converted a couple of those 1st-and-goal scenarios and made a stop here and there, Dolphins could have been -3 favorites in this game on Sunday. Instead, they're home-doggies. I'll take it. Houston still hasn't proven anything, and even though they're a solid team, they're not as good as NE. Miami will be able to move the ball through the air (Henne threw for over 400 yards last week!!!) and their D is still very good. Davis and Smith are above-average corners, and I expect Wake to put a bit more pressure in this one as Shaub doesn't always get rid of the ball quickly like Brady did. I know it's early in the season but this is a HUGE, must-win game for the Dolphins. Going 0-2 at home to start the year would be a disaster to their season. I expect them to deliver.
#2: Indianapolis Colts +1.5 (You can play it at +2.5 I believe, but I wanted to grab + odds) Last week when the Browns were -7 point home favorites against the Bengals, I think majority of professional bettors went: "What the Fudge?" Cleveland set as a strong favorite like that was something that experienced bettors aren't used to (not the public of course who were hammering the Browns). Well guess what? This week they're a road-favorite! This is simlar to the HOU/MIA game, where I had to look at the line and have a similar response. I know that Indy is missing Manning here and I know that they didn't look good last week. Well, when you look a little closer to last week's game against the Texans, Indy actually didn't play too bad in the 2nd half. Heck, they won the 2nd half of that one: 7-0! (Would have been 10-0 but Vinatieri missed an easy FG). Watching the game and then confirming through drive-charts, you'll see that Indy was able to move the ball offensively in the 2nd half. That tells me that Collins was getting more and more comfortable with the offense. Opening on the road against a division rival was very hard for him, especially since he didn't have much time with his receivers prior. Watching him get more and more comfortable (sure, Texans were playing more of a prevent D in the 2nd half but you still have to make the throws!) in the 2nd half was encouraging. It's easy to forget about Indy without Manning, but they still have Wayne, Collie, Garcon, Clark, and Addai on offense -- all pretty dynamic playmakers. They still have Freeney and Mathis on D, who are able to change the 'game' at any time. Heck, the D played pretty well in the 2nd half against Houston, causing a number of turnovers and preventing any scores. I expect that momentum to carry over into Indy's home opener this week. On the opposite end of the spectrum we have the Browns. They lost to the Bengals at home! That's inexcusable. They didn't play well at all and it wasn't surprising as they have a new coaching staff and a weak-armed QB leading the offense. In any case, I can't believe that the bookmakers have listed the Browns as road favorites in this scenario. I think we see Indy bounce-back in this game as they get a home win here.
Not Good!
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
2011-2012 NFL Record: 2 - 4 @33%for-2.4 Units
Week 2 #1: Miami Dolphins +3 Look, I know Miami is like 1-9 at home in their last 10 games (not confirmed) and they're coming off another home loss in week 1, but what have the Texans really done to deserve to be road favorites? This is a team that went 2-6 on the road last year, losing their last 6 away from home. Out of the 2 wins, one was a 3 point OT victory in Washington and the other one a TD win @ Oakland. The fact that Houston beat up on "Manning-less" colts who were lead by a 70-year old quarterback is not enough to instill them as 3-point favorites here. At the same time everyone looks at the final result of the NE/MIA game on Monday, but fails to look beyond just the final tally. Miami was in that game the whole time! We forget that Miami had a first-and-goal from the 1 with 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, and down 21-14. They of course failed to convert (how often do you see an NFL team not getting a TD when they have a 1st-and-goal from the 1???) and settled for a FG. Then down 31-17 in the 4th, again Miami failed to convert when they had a 1st and goal from the 10 this time. It of course led to a long 99-yard TD for Welker on the next play, but the Dolphins didn't quit, drove the field, scored another TD, and then had another strong drive to end the game as time expired and they ended up at NE 17. I don't want to take anything away from NE's defense or their offense (they were unstoppable and I don't think it would have mattered who played D that day!), but Miami looked very good in that game as well, hanging with arguably the best team in the NFL. Had they converted a couple of those 1st-and-goal scenarios and made a stop here and there, Dolphins could have been -3 favorites in this game on Sunday. Instead, they're home-doggies. I'll take it. Houston still hasn't proven anything, and even though they're a solid team, they're not as good as NE. Miami will be able to move the ball through the air (Henne threw for over 400 yards last week!!!) and their D is still very good. Davis and Smith are above-average corners, and I expect Wake to put a bit more pressure in this one as Shaub doesn't always get rid of the ball quickly like Brady did. I know it's early in the season but this is a HUGE, must-win game for the Dolphins. Going 0-2 at home to start the year would be a disaster to their season. I expect them to deliver.
#2: Indianapolis Colts +1.5 (You can play it at +2.5 I believe, but I wanted to grab + odds) Last week when the Browns were -7 point home favorites against the Bengals, I think majority of professional bettors went: "What the Fudge?" Cleveland set as a strong favorite like that was something that experienced bettors aren't used to (not the public of course who were hammering the Browns). Well guess what? This week they're a road-favorite! This is simlar to the HOU/MIA game, where I had to look at the line and have a similar response. I know that Indy is missing Manning here and I know that they didn't look good last week. Well, when you look a little closer to last week's game against the Texans, Indy actually didn't play too bad in the 2nd half. Heck, they won the 2nd half of that one: 7-0! (Would have been 10-0 but Vinatieri missed an easy FG). Watching the game and then confirming through drive-charts, you'll see that Indy was able to move the ball offensively in the 2nd half. That tells me that Collins was getting more and more comfortable with the offense. Opening on the road against a division rival was very hard for him, especially since he didn't have much time with his receivers prior. Watching him get more and more comfortable (sure, Texans were playing more of a prevent D in the 2nd half but you still have to make the throws!) in the 2nd half was encouraging. It's easy to forget about Indy without Manning, but they still have Wayne, Collie, Garcon, Clark, and Addai on offense -- all pretty dynamic playmakers. They still have Freeney and Mathis on D, who are able to change the 'game' at any time. Heck, the D played pretty well in the 2nd half against Houston, causing a number of turnovers and preventing any scores. I expect that momentum to carry over into Indy's home opener this week. On the opposite end of the spectrum we have the Browns. They lost to the Bengals at home! That's inexcusable. They didn't play well at all and it wasn't surprising as they have a new coaching staff and a weak-armed QB leading the offense. In any case, I can't believe that the bookmakers have listed the Browns as road favorites in this scenario. I think we see Indy bounce-back in this game as they get a home win here.
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g/l bodio this week 
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