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Bounceback System

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Posted: #76

Isn't this a bounceback system as well? 

Take a team that lost ATS vs a team that won ATS?

If so, here they are:

Pitt - 14.5

Mia - 3.5

Jac - 7

N E - 7.5

NYG + 3

 

 
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Posted: #77
Why is Pitt a play.They only lost by 5 last week
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:

Isn't this a bounceback system as well? 

Take a team that lost ATS vs a team that won ATS?

If so, here they are:

Pitt - 14.5

Mia - 3.5

Jac - 7

N E - 7.5

NYG + 3

 



Yeah, technically that's a system. How well will it do? Probably go around .500, like any other simple system that you can think up off the top your head in less than 5 seconds.

What you could do is spend a couple of hours back-testing your new system on at least the first 10 weeks of the current NFL season, and then get back to us and tell us if the system wins or not.
 
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Posted: #79
Will do
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by 10009:

Why is Pitt a play.They only lost by 5 last week


They lost by 5 as a 5.5-point favorite. For this system, that's a setup.
 
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Posted: #81

Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:

Will do

Week 15 From Week 14 --> 5 - 3

 

 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:

Week 15 From Week 14 --> 5 - 3

Week 14 From Week 13 --> 3 - 1

 
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Posted: #83

Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:

 

Week 15 From Week 14 --> 5 - 3

Week 14 From Week 13 --> 3 - 1

Week 13 From Week 12 --> 5 - 5

 

 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:

Week 15 From Week 14 --> 5 - 3

Week 14 From Week 13 --> 3 - 1

Week 13 From Week 12 --> 5 - 5

Week 12 From Week 11 --> 1 - 1

 
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Posted: #85

Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:

Week 15 From Week 14 --> 5 - 3

Week 14 From Week 13 --> 3 - 1

Week 13 From Week 12 --> 5 - 5

Week 12 From Week 11 --> 1 - 1

Week11 From Week 10 --> 2 - 1

This system of taking a team coming off a loss ATS vs a team off a win ATS look safe, and I do like the plays for this week anyway; therefore, I'm going with it. 

Many of the books I've read on handicapping do talk about this 'swing' play anyhow.  1 book speak specifically of taking team off a loss, and another book says to take favorites coming off a win w/out covering the spread. 

I'm not just coming up with this simple strategy in 5 seconds, but, BTW, most good ideas are simple  : )

 
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Posted: #86
If I don't forget this by next NFL season im going to give it a try. It is simple but make sense.
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:

Isn't this a bounceback system as well? 

Take a team that lost ATS vs a team that won ATS?

If so, here they are:

Pitt - 14.5

Mia - 3.5

Jac - 7

N E - 7.5

NYG + 3

 




This is total non-sense!
 
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Posted: #88
I checked on the 1 unit bets  (bet on the team if it lost last week by 10 points or more ATS---I did not exclude games where both teams were 1 unit bets so I under state the results a very little bit

weeks 2 thru and including 16, no week 17 and no playoffs

1996 thru 2009

raw numbers
won 697
lost 659
51.4% win rate


sorry to break the bubble

didn't check the 2 or 3 unit bets





 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by jarhead60:

I checked on the 1 unit bets  (bet on the team if it lost last week by 10 points or more ATS---I did not exclude games where both teams were 1 unit bets so I under state the results a very little bit

weeks 2 thru and including 16, no week 17 and no playoffs

1996 thru 2009

raw numbers
won 697
lost 659
51.4% win rate


sorry to break the bubble

didn't check the 2 or 3 unit bets







Where did you get that info from??
 
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Posted: #90
Where did you get that info from??


From my private data base that goes back to 1996.




 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by jarhead60:

I checked on the 1 unit bets  (bet on the team if it lost last week by 10 points or more ATS---I did not exclude games where both teams were 1 unit bets so I under state the results a very little bit

weeks 2 thru and including 16, no week 17 and no playoffs

1996 thru 2009

raw numbers
won 697
lost 659
51.4% win rate


sorry to break the bubble

didn't check the 2 or 3 unit bets







Thanks for the study.

The mindset of the system comes from the recognition of parity in the NFL over recent years. Imo, this parity started around the year 2000.

Maybe you could re-compute the records using at least 2000 to present, and more like 2004 to present, instead of 1996 to present.

Also, filter out teams that won straight up but lost by 10+ vs. the spread (ex: team favored by 14 wins by 1 point).
 
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Posted: #92
from 2004 thru 2009

same conditions as before

won 326, lost 291 52.8%

won st up but lost ats by 10 or more was too small to be meaningful
and are included in above

One of the possible problems with this theory's approach is that we are looking at only one of the two teams in the game. 


 
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Posted: #93
So only 4 plays this week including thursday and monday night??? 
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by jarhead60:

from 2004 thru 2009

same conditions as before

won 326, lost 291 52.8%

won st up but lost ats by 10 or more was too small to be meaningful
and are included in above

One of the possible problems with this theory's approach is that we are looking at only one of the two teams in the game. 




All right. Well, so we might be in an anomaly year, hitting at about 59% this season. I'm going to go with it. Obviously, being 71 games into the sample, our figure this season is going to finish above at least 57%. If we falter next season, I can remove the 1U part of the system from money bets, and just continue to bet the 2U part. Much fewer bets, but 2U is hitting at about 70% in 2010, so I'm a little more comfortable in the 2U's validity.
 
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Posted: #95
Repost - 5 plays in total, but only 4 bets, as 2 plays are conflicting

Thursday Night Play

1U:
pit -14.5

Sunday Plays

2U:
den + (only betting 1 unit though, play cancels with hou 1U play)
sea +

3U:
min+

 
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Posted: #96
49ers and Rams Conflicting??
 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by SlamminSam212:

49ers and Rams Conflicting??

Yes.
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:

Week 15 From Week 14 --> 5 - 3

Week 14 From Week 13 --> 3 - 1

Week 13 From Week 12 --> 5 - 5

Week 12 From Week 11 --> 1 - 1

Week11 From Week 10 --> 2 - 1

This system of taking a team coming off a loss ATS vs a team off a win ATS look safe, and I do like the plays for this week anyway; therefore, I'm going with it. 

Many of the books I've read on handicapping do talk about this 'swing' play anyhow.  1 book speak specifically of taking team off a loss, and another book says to take favorites coming off a win w/out covering the spread. 

I'm not just coming up with this simple strategy in 5 seconds, but, BTW, most good ideas are simple  : )



Good Work!

So who are the match ups this week?

Team losing ATS vs Team winning ATS = who's the play?
 
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Posted: #99

If you're going straight bouncebacks, Loss ATS vs Win ATS, here they are:

Pitt - 14.5

Mia - 3.5

Jac - 7

N E - 7.5

NYG + 3

 

I'm only taking the following 3, however.  I'll be uploading a video to show why soon. 

 

JAX, MIA, NYG

 
 
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Posted: #100

Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:




This is total non-sense!

This is largely most of what the handicappers who become authors write about.  Bouncebacks ATS

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