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Posted: #26
Found 2 games earlier in the season where 1U teams were facing each other as opponents. So, that means we can take away 2 1U wins and 2 1U losses, as we would not have played those games at the time.

That means, YTD we are:
1U: 27-18
2U: 15-4

This week there are 4 1U teams that are facing each other in 2 games. So, 4 of our picks are knocked off the board (ten,was,kcc,ari). The remaining picks are:

1U:
min +3.5 (buy .5 pt if have to)
pit -7.5
nyg +3.5

2U:
car +10.5

Good luck to all.
 
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Posted: #27
1U:
min +3.5 L
pit -7.5 W
nyg +3.5 L

2U:
car +10.5 L

Today: 1U: 1-2 2U: 0-1
YTD: 1U: 28-20 2U: 15-5

 
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Posted: #28
YTD -- 1U: 28-20 -- 2U: 15-5

Week 12 Board ... the one Thanksgiving play is cin:

1U:
cin +8.5
car +10.5
ari +0.5

2U:
nyg -7.5

3U (1U & 2U):
min +2.5
ten +0.5 ?

The ari game is actually a 1U (sff) vs. a 2U (ari), so ari gets bumped from a 2U to a 1U play just by mathematical cancellation, and of course, sff becomes a no-play.

Good luck everyone and Happy Thanksgiving.
 
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Posted: #29
Okay let's tally the results:

1U:
cin +8.5 L
car +10.5 W
ari +0.5 --- W on 1U and L on 2U --- net of -1 U

2U:
nyg -7.5 L

3U (1U & 2U):
min +2.5 W on 2 bets
ten +0.5 ? L on 2 bets

So, weekly results are --- 1U: 3-2 --- 2U: 1-3

YTD --- 1U: 31-22 --- 2U: 16-8

 
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Posted: #30
Sunday's Plays:

1U:
det +4.5
sea -5.5
ind -5.5
ari +3.5

2U:
cin +6.5
den +9.5

3U (1U & 2U - 2 bets combined):
ten -3.5
oak +12.5
 
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Posted: #31
Results:

1U:
det +4.5 W
sea -5.5 W
ind -5.5 L
ari +3.5 L

2U:
cin +6.5 W
den +9.5 W

3U (1U & 2U - 2 bets combined):
ten -3.5 L
oak +12.5 W

Week:
1U: 3-3
2U: 3-1

YTD:
1U:  34-25
2U: 19-9
 
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Posted: #32
Forgot to execute a clause in the system last week.

ten -3.5, which was a loss, should have only been a 2U bet, not a 3U bet. So, instead of going 3-3 on 1U bets, we should have gone 3-2.

So our revised YTD record is:
1U: 34-24 (1 loss taken away)
2U: 19-9

Thursday night play is a 2U bet:
ind -3.5

Good luck everyone.
 
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Posted: #33
GL Fonzi!   
 
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Posted: #34
Well, this is going to seem kind of silly, but I'm going to do a 180 and remove the clause from the system that made us lessen the exposure to the Week 13 Tennessee loss.

We're going to go with the theory that the more a team loses ATS, the more attractive a play they become. So, we are going to absorb that original ten -3.5 loss, and then play them again vs. Indy, which means that our Indy -3.5 2U loss is wiped out, and we will also get a ten +3.5 win for 1U on top of that.

Soooo .....  we will change our 1U record from 34-24 to 34-25.
Then, we will convert our ind -3.5 2U play last night to a ten +3.5 1U play, which is a win. Don't ask why this happens. It just does.

Now,  our YTD record will be:
1U: 35-25
2U: 19-9

I'll follow up tomorrow with Sunday's plays.
 
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Posted: #35
Sunday plays:

1U:
was +1.5
buf pk
car +7.5
sdc -6.5
nyj -5.5

2U:
ari +4.5
 
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Posted: #36
Like Car and Az
 
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Posted: #37
 Good stuff
 
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Posted: #38
Thx for the support, harley and k4.

Let's tally the results

1U:
was +1.5 W
buf pk W
car +7.5 L
sdc -6.5 W
nyj -5.5 L

2U:
ari +4.5 W

Week:
1U: 3-2
2U: 1-0

YTD:
1U: 38-27
2U: 20-9
 
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Posted: #39
Found a 1U winning scenario in week 1 that I previously missed. We can add one win to the 1U record.

The scenario was SD losing to KC in Week 1, then coming back in week 2 and blowing out Jax.

So, YTD:
1U: 39-27
2U: 20-9
 
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Posted: #40
Sunday's plays:

1U:
kcc pk
den +6.5
sea +6.5
gbp +???

2U:
nyj +5.5

3U:
car -2.5

Good luck to all.
 
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Posted: #41

Quote Originally Posted by tuttleberry:

Thx for the support, harley and k4.

Let's tally the results

1U:
was +1.5 W
buf pk W
car +7.5 L
sdc -6.5 W
nyj -5.5 L

2U:
ari +4.5 W

Week:
1U: 3-2
2U: 1-0

YTD:
1U: 38-27
2U: 20-9

Been reading your thread, curious how the Jets could have been a play against the Phins. The Phins lost the prior week to the Browns straight up - they were favored by 3.

 
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Posted: #42

Quote Originally Posted by tuttleberry:

Sunday's plays:

1U:
kcc pk
den +6.5
sea +6.5
gbp +???

2U:
nyj +5.5

3U:
car -2.5

Good luck to all.

A 3 U play this week? I like it.

 
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Posted: #43
rob3996: The setup for the system is a team must lose by more 10 or more vs. the spread. The Jets were a setup after losing 45-3, and the Phins were not a setup as they lost by less than 10 vs. the spread.

Byharley: a 3U play happens if a team loses by 10 or more vs. the spread twice in a row.

The 3U record YTD is a combo of the 1U and 2U record. I honestly don't know what it is, but I'm confident the win pct is at least 60% and probably higher than that.

Thanks for the interest.
 
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Posted: #44
Sunday's plays:

1U:
kcc pk
den +6.5
sea +6.5
gbp +13.5   updated

2U:
nyj +5.5

3U:
car -2.5
 
Prospect
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Posted: #45
Love Sea and Den, hard to bet on maybe the worst NFL game of the year between Car and Az BOL 
 
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Posted: #46

Quote Originally Posted by tuttleberry:

rob3996: The setup for the system is a team must lose by more 10 or more vs. the spread. The Jets were a setup after losing 45-3, and the Phins were not a setup as they lost by less than 10 vs. the spread.

Byharley: a 3U play happens if a team loses by 10 or more vs. the spread twice in a row.

The 3U record YTD is a combo of the 1U and 2U record. I honestly don't know what it is, but I'm confident the win pct is at least 60% and probably higher than that.

Thanks for the interest.

Thanks much for the explanation - think your system is something that makes alot of sense. I was doing something similar awhile back - one other thing that I was taking into consideration is turnover margins for the previous game. If a team was a bouncback team PLUS their turnover margin was equal to or preferably worse than the team they were playing - it qualified as a play.

Only thing im not 100% clear on is your 2U criteria? I saw you mention bye week, so its for teams coming off byes. What is the other piece im missing?

Thanks Buddy

 

 

 
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Posted: #47

Quote Originally Posted by tuttleberry:

Sunday's plays:

1U:
kcc pk
den +6.5
sea +6.5
gbp +13.5   updated

2U:
nyj +5.5

3U:
car -2.5

Curious is anyone ever tried something similar to this for NCAAF - maybe just TOP 25 Teams.

 

 

 
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Posted: #48
Rob, the 2U plays are just chases of 1U losses.

I'll post later with the tallies. Hit the 2U and 3U (1U + 2U) plays. 2U record YTD is now 22-9. 
 
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Posted: #49
Tallying the results:

1U:
kcc pk W
den +6.5 L
sea +6.5 L
gbp +13.5 W

2U:
nyj +5.5 W

3U:
car -2.5 W (on a 1U and a 2U bet)

Week:
1U: 3-2
2U: 2-0

YTD:
1U: 42-29
2U: 22-9
 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 363
Posted: #50
I like your system can you give me another example?? like

if the (FOR EXAMPLE)

the colts were favorite by -6 over the Cards and the final score was 
Colts 30 Cards 20 is the Cards a 2 unit play for that next week.. or is it the spread PLUS 10??? like the final score being...
Colts 30 Cards 14.. would like be a 2 unit bet for the following week... 

explain..? 
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