BUFFALO BILLS: Putting the Season Win total bet in now. Talk about it much later.

BUFFALO BILLS:

OVER 8 WINS -120 (5Dimes)

Folks, I thought this would be 8.5 or 9. You need <=7 wins to lose! No need for a write-up now. Season is too far away. Trust in Rex. He will get us there.

Barring catastrophic injuries (and that goes for any bet) he will go for broke this season. Have a 7 or 6 win season the Bills have to seriously consider moving onto another coach. And Rex has said this is his last HC job.

Think about this in comparison to other bets. The NY Jets, who currently have Geno Smith as their default starter, are OVER 8 wins -125. That is insane comparatively. 

Taking it while the odds are the sweetest and will add to it little by little through other sports as the season approaches since the over 8 win total will only rise or the juice on it will.

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Scal, whether I agree with the pick or not, you got a terrible line. -120 for a Rex Ryan offense on a tough schedule? If you truly believe in 9 wins and had the line at 8.5/9, the value for you would be at 8.5 for plus money.

Now to my expectations for the Bills:

Their defense should be better than last year, but this time we have the Ryan brothers running the show so I am not completely confident. Rex Ryan still believes that ground and pound wins you a lot of Football games. But it doesn't. They had the most rushing yards per game but that means exactly nothing and has no correlation to winning Football games. Their offense just had a very light schedule against weak passing defenses. Their average opponent ranked #27 in DVOA pass defense. In all of their wins, Tyrod Tailor was able to play out the opposing QB with efficient passing numbers and a range between 6.5 - 12 NYPPA. Colts, Dolphins (2x), Titans, Cowboys - you notice these teams weren't famous for passing defense. They schooled out the Jets in the 2nd game but needed 4-0 on turnovers to win the first game by 5 points. If we look at ESPN headlines, it seems like the Bills' ground and pound approach is successful, but the passing efficiency is what matters.

In 2016, they play the AFC North, NFC West, Jets on double revenge, an improved Dolphins team, the Patriots who just got better during offseason & the rising Jaguars and Raiders. Add 3 west coast games into the mix. They got one of the toughest road schedules. This is a completely different schedule than they had last season, against some real good defenses. You don't want any Bills QB to air it out against a lot of teams on that schedule.

That being said, I highly doubt the Bills will win more than 8 games this season.

Suuma,

This line is perfectly reasonable. It's a push line. I need 7 to lose. I can't grab it at 8.5 as I'd be waiting around for money to come in and out and I'll never know when that hits 8.5.

You don't have your choice with totals like that where you can take alternate lines, at least not on 5 Dimes.

So .10 extra on top of the standard juice is not an issue with me whatsoever.

And the Ryan brothers? Terrible apart. Great together.

This is where I take a macroperspective of the Bills. Ryan needs to prove his worth this year. If he goes 6-10 or 7-9 he likely will be shown the door.

So the floor for me has always been 8. And when I saw it open at 8, that's a push line and I'm more than happy to take all of it at -120.

And not only will the Bills beat the Jets in week 2, they will likely beat them twice next year, especially with the QB situation in flux. The Jets players loved Rex. They have no revenge against him. But the way the Jets jettisoned Rex gives him all the reason to stick it to his old franchise just like Belichick does till this day (for the Mangini fallout in particular).

And I see the schedule as quite favorable:

@Baltimore

Jets

Arizona

@NE

@LA

San Fran

@Miami

Then finish out the season with Cleveland Miami Jets.

There are 8 wins in there and I see 9 which wins the bet.

And the Jags and Raiders? We have been saying they are an improving team for many years. They are. But the Bills can get at worst a split against the two.

The defense will be improved and Rex won't go berserk with ground and pound as it largely failed him last year, and even at that he got 8 wins in his inaugural year.

Remember the Jets were superior to the Bills last year and the Bills took them out twice in two very crucial games. 1-1 at worst and a possible 2-0 vs. NY.

Jump on board Suuma. This one's a winner.

Summa,

Lawson has never played a down for Buffalo. While I will say the surgery sucks, the line is now Bills -115. How much do you think Lawson is worth on that line? Or any line for that matter. He would have made an impact but again, he's a rookie who has never seen the field. I posted this before they even drafted Lawson because the product on the field now can get to 8 wins. This is a freeroll. We only need 9 wins and Rex will not have this team roll over and die this year with 6/7 wins.

With Watkins, it's a wait and see approach. I don't like the news, I will say that.

I'll take your 2-1 for $1,000 right now. Let's set it up.