BUFFALO BILLS: Putting the Season Win total bet in now. Talk about it much later.

Summa,

I've watched the Jets religiously all my life.

The man came to a team with a neophyte QB (who currently can't cut it in this league and is only now a starter by default) with a decent defense and turned that team into a team in the AFC Championship not once but TWICE.

He took two, what could be deemed as bad Jets teams to 8-8 records, one with Geno Smith (another for all intents and purposes non-starter on most any other team) and another where Sanchez/Clemens and Tebow played in a fiasco of a season with numerous injuries and still squeezed out 6 wins from them.

His last season with the Jets was a 3 win give-up season where Idzick came in and hamstrung the entire defense by not spending. It had one of the worst secondaries I have ever seen in my life. Rex forced his way out because of that.

This man can get blood from rocks.

This defense will of course do better than last year (how can they not and Rex takes personal offense to all the advanced metrics that show last year's Bills defense was bad in many areas).

He has a QB to work with that is gaining experience and will only improve. Watkins has the injury issues but that has not been disclosed fully. Yes, their first round draft pick will not play initially but he will see the field by mid-season. The rest of their draft was good.

This is NOT the ground and pound philosophy that made Rex average to terrible during the end of Jets tenure. He is about ball control and time of possession and using his QB as a facilitator (and he will allow more of his skills to show this year because he trusts him more) and there is something to be said in the positive about the legitimacy of that.

That will get us to AT LEAST .500. This is a no-lose bet for me. Push or better and I see 9-7 at least.

The man gets BLOOD FROM ROCKS. He will get us there. If you trust that instead of advanced metrics which CANNOT appropriately capture Rex's value and influence, you will win some money! I'm only trying to make you and others here money! They will not be under .500 this year. It's a push or win bet. The line is PERFECT.

That is not my angle. That is simply a bullet point in the angle. In fact, I don't think the owner would dump him after 2 years anyhow, but the threat that he would be fired is effective enough.

All my points as to why the Bills will win at least 8 and why I am very confident they will be >=9 wins, are sprinkled throughout the entire thread.

If you want to make money, play this one. It's a freeroll at worst.

Remember this post during Game 16 when the gun sounds.

Probably has to do with someone fading the Bills because Watkins said he 'should' be back for training camp. Any injury news to Watkins scares the hell out of bettors and they get jittery, hence the under becoming more expensive.

@nopicks

We will cash it together, both our tickets in their respective hands.

I've said it before and I'll say it again:

Capping is quantifying the unquantifiable.

We use the unquantifiable ALL THE TIME. The single most famous situational cap in a sporting event is the revenge game.

While it has become cliché and overused, it hasn't lost it's importance.

Why? Because revenge angles typically aren't fully realized in the betting line, if at all. THAT is what gives you an advantage over the long term and that is what creates a winning gambler.

My detractors will say the following statement is total bullsh*. That's ok. I'll let my record and bankroll do the talking in response to that.

This bet just got stronger with the passing of Buddy Ryan.

Already, Rex's job is on the line, he has a better team, a very good draft and a more experienced Taylor, and now he AND his brother can coach together to dedicate this season in memoriam to a well-respected coach in their father. Whether they state that publicly or strive for that personally will have the same effect on the outcome.

Clearly Rex is cut from the same clothe and if you don't think Rex can get this team to 8-7 (or better) where we freeroll in week 17, then you simply will be missing out.

Rex and amazingly, Rob, yes Rob, will get it done this year. With all due respect, the passing of Buddy will help in that (a bet I already had a great one even before his passing).

“On behalf of the entire Ryan family, we want to take this opportunity to thank everyone for their sympathies, prayers and warm thoughts with the passing of my dad. He was many things to many people--outstanding coach, mentor, fierce competitor, father figure, faithful friend and the list goes on. But to me and my brothers Rob and Jim, he was so much more. He was everything you want in a dad--tough when he had to be, compassionate when you didn't necessarily expect it, and a loving teacher and confidant who cherished his family. He truly was our hero."

“For Rob and me, we've had the great fortune of sharing the coaching profession that he was so proud of and cherished so much. There is no way we can possibly begin to measure how much football we have learned from him over the years and we are forever thankful to him for instilling within us his unwavering love for the game of football."