I actually like the upside of LSH at RB. The Cards primary backs weren't effective at all so I don't think they are a significant loss. Gonna be interesting to see how the Bills pass rush performs. Those $100m contracts seem to create complacency though.
haha yeah i scooped up LSH for my fantasy team cause i know hes got crazy upside as a playmaker, but everything iv'e been hearing is that he's way too small to shoulder a full rb workload and hes coming off a wierd hip injury so who knows how close to 100% he'll be. i guess time will tell.
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Quote Originally Posted by cam2smitty:
Thanks for the info
I actually like the upside of LSH at RB. The Cards primary backs weren't effective at all so I don't think they are a significant loss. Gonna be interesting to see how the Bills pass rush performs. Those $100m contracts seem to create complacency though.
haha yeah i scooped up LSH for my fantasy team cause i know hes got crazy upside as a playmaker, but everything iv'e been hearing is that he's way too small to shoulder a full rb workload and hes coming off a wierd hip injury so who knows how close to 100% he'll be. i guess time will tell.
I'm curious how the Dolphins will do playing as a favorite.
Also, not sure how home favorites do after playing as back to back road dogs in their 2 previous games.
Anyone have a trend for this?
BOL!
Teams that have won two consecutive games on the road as dogs and then return home as favorites are ATS 27-25 and the OU is 16-36 which is a strong trend to the under. If you are looking at the OU trend from 2004 onwards its OU 5-17
Wasn't CINNY in this sport last week against MIAMI?
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Quote Originally Posted by Spanish123:
Great write-up, was leaning Miami myself.
I'm curious how the Dolphins will do playing as a favorite.
Also, not sure how home favorites do after playing as back to back road dogs in their 2 previous games.
Anyone have a trend for this?
BOL!
Teams that have won two consecutive games on the road as dogs and then return home as favorites are ATS 27-25 and the OU is 16-36 which is a strong trend to the under. If you are looking at the OU trend from 2004 onwards its OU 5-17
Wasn't CINNY in this sport last week against MIAMI?
Teams that have won two consecutive games on the road as dogs and then return home as favorites are ATS 27-25 and the OU is 16-36 which is a strong trend to the under. If you are looking at the OU trend from 2004 onwards its OU 5-17
Wasn't CINNY in this sport last week against MIAMI?
I misread your question so I washed out the parameters that the road team had to have won their games and came up with the following information - no trend here.
ATS 165-188 OU 176-185
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Quote Originally Posted by shivaseven:
Teams that have won two consecutive games on the road as dogs and then return home as favorites are ATS 27-25 and the OU is 16-36 which is a strong trend to the under. If you are looking at the OU trend from 2004 onwards its OU 5-17
Wasn't CINNY in this sport last week against MIAMI?
I misread your question so I washed out the parameters that the road team had to have won their games and came up with the following information - no trend here.
I misread your question so I washed out the parameters that the road team had to have won their games and came up with the following information - no trend here.
ATS 165-188 OU 176-185
Awesome man, thank you for running the numbers. Makes me more comfortable riding the Dolphins here.
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Quote Originally Posted by shivaseven:
I misread your question so I washed out the parameters that the road team had to have won their games and came up with the following information - no trend here.
ATS 165-188 OU 176-185
Awesome man, thank you for running the numbers. Makes me more comfortable riding the Dolphins here.
I'd like to add something for the 49ers pick and the Harbaugh revenge factor. I posted this in a different thread but thought I would condense it into my own thread.
Harbaugh in his final 2 seasons at Stanford went 8-2 ATS when playing teams he lost to SU the previous season.
Harbaugh in general is a covering machine. From 2009 to 2012, Harbaugh led teams are 31-13 ATS and 16-5 ATS at home.
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I'd like to add something for the 49ers pick and the Harbaugh revenge factor. I posted this in a different thread but thought I would condense it into my own thread.
Harbaugh in his final 2 seasons at Stanford went 8-2 ATS when playing teams he lost to SU the previous season.
Harbaugh in general is a covering machine. From 2009 to 2012, Harbaugh led teams are 31-13 ATS and 16-5 ATS at home.
Haven't locked this in, but I'm leaning heavily towards:
Colts +3.5 (-120)
- The reason I am VERY hesitant to take this is because the Colts are coming off an emotional win against the Packers in which they played inspired football for their Coach, Chuck Pagano. On the other hand, I think the Jets laid a lot out on the field against the Texans and have a short week. The short week is key here because they don't have as much time to install a gameplan to trick Andrew Luck. I think Luck is already a better QB than Mark Sanchez. His stats are better than Sanchez through his first 4 NFL starts even though Sanchez is a veteran. The big thing here is that the Jets are losing the battle in the trenches by a large margin. Here are some stats under Rex Ryan:
2009 - YPC for 4.5/against 3.8 (Net +.7) - Record 9-7 Playoffs
2010 - YPC for 4.4/against 3.6 (Net +.8) - Record 11-5 Playoffs
2011 - YPC for 3.8/against 3.9 (Net -.1) - Record 8-8
2012 - YPC for 3.2/against 4.9 (Net -1.7) - Record 1-4
2009 - YPP for 6.6/against 5.4 (Net +1.2)
2010 - YPP for 6.5/against 6.5 (Net 0)
2011 - YPP for 6.5/against 6.7 (Net -.2)
2012 - YPP for 6.5/against 6.8 (Net -.3)
It's clear the Jets are successful when they win the ground game, and it's also clear that the Jets advantage in this statistic has been diminishing over the past 2 years and it's no surprise that they aren't getting many wins. Although I don't think that the Jets' success is predicated on the passing game, it is clear that their pass defense is regressing. From Rex Ryan's first year the Jets YPC allowed as increased by 1.1 yards and their YPP allowed has increased by 1.4 yards.
While the front 7 is regressing you also have the issue of no Darrelle Revis. In three games this season without Revis, Cromartie has filled in admirably. The opponents primary receivers are only catching 43% of their targets at a rate of 4.74yards/target. The problem is that moving Cromartie into Revis' role is that it has opened up the back end. Opponents #2 receivers are catching 71% of their targets at a rate of 9.52yards/target. That's scary because it's not as if the secondary receivers are catching short underneath routes. Primary receivers are averaging 10.9 yards/catch while secondary receivers are averaging 13.3 yards/catch.
The defensive regression is why I think this game will be close as I think the Colts will have success moving the ball. This game will come down to whoever has the ball last which is why I think getting 3.5 has value.
More to come.
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Haven't locked this in, but I'm leaning heavily towards:
Colts +3.5 (-120)
- The reason I am VERY hesitant to take this is because the Colts are coming off an emotional win against the Packers in which they played inspired football for their Coach, Chuck Pagano. On the other hand, I think the Jets laid a lot out on the field against the Texans and have a short week. The short week is key here because they don't have as much time to install a gameplan to trick Andrew Luck. I think Luck is already a better QB than Mark Sanchez. His stats are better than Sanchez through his first 4 NFL starts even though Sanchez is a veteran. The big thing here is that the Jets are losing the battle in the trenches by a large margin. Here are some stats under Rex Ryan:
2009 - YPC for 4.5/against 3.8 (Net +.7) - Record 9-7 Playoffs
2010 - YPC for 4.4/against 3.6 (Net +.8) - Record 11-5 Playoffs
2011 - YPC for 3.8/against 3.9 (Net -.1) - Record 8-8
2012 - YPC for 3.2/against 4.9 (Net -1.7) - Record 1-4
2009 - YPP for 6.6/against 5.4 (Net +1.2)
2010 - YPP for 6.5/against 6.5 (Net 0)
2011 - YPP for 6.5/against 6.7 (Net -.2)
2012 - YPP for 6.5/against 6.8 (Net -.3)
It's clear the Jets are successful when they win the ground game, and it's also clear that the Jets advantage in this statistic has been diminishing over the past 2 years and it's no surprise that they aren't getting many wins. Although I don't think that the Jets' success is predicated on the passing game, it is clear that their pass defense is regressing. From Rex Ryan's first year the Jets YPC allowed as increased by 1.1 yards and their YPP allowed has increased by 1.4 yards.
While the front 7 is regressing you also have the issue of no Darrelle Revis. In three games this season without Revis, Cromartie has filled in admirably. The opponents primary receivers are only catching 43% of their targets at a rate of 4.74yards/target. The problem is that moving Cromartie into Revis' role is that it has opened up the back end. Opponents #2 receivers are catching 71% of their targets at a rate of 9.52yards/target. That's scary because it's not as if the secondary receivers are catching short underneath routes. Primary receivers are averaging 10.9 yards/catch while secondary receivers are averaging 13.3 yards/catch.
The defensive regression is why I think this game will be close as I think the Colts will have success moving the ball. This game will come down to whoever has the ball last which is why I think getting 3.5 has value.
- Wow, feel very lucky on this one but to be honest it shouldn't have even been this close. Four drives ended with FGs inside the 30 yard line with 2 being inside the 10.
Dolphins -3.5 (-110) 5U
- Dolphins Defense didn't do nearly as well as I expected. That 2nd to last TD drive with the 2pt conversion was a killer.
Rams TT U17 (-110) 2U
- Got lucky with this one with the 2 missed FGs early.
Pending:
Cardinals -4.5 (-110) 3U
49ers -5 (-110) 2U
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Mixed start....
Chiefs +4 (-110) 2U
- Just a bad pick.
Eagles/Lions O47.5 (-110) 4U
- Wow, feel very lucky on this one but to be honest it shouldn't have even been this close. Four drives ended with FGs inside the 30 yard line with 2 being inside the 10.
Dolphins -3.5 (-110) 5U
- Dolphins Defense didn't do nearly as well as I expected. That 2nd to last TD drive with the 2pt conversion was a killer.
Rams TT U17 (-110) 2U
- Got lucky with this one with the 2 missed FGs early.
WOW THIS GUY IS AS BRUTAL AS CAM NEWTON - I can't believe this dumb shit bet against the Giants - doesn't he know who the King of the Nfl is - The Giants will win the Superbowl again - nobody can beat them - man this guy sucks - total fade material - almost every one of his picks is wrong - I can't believe he bet on kevin kolb
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WOW THIS GUY IS AS BRUTAL AS CAM NEWTON - I can't believe this dumb shit bet against the Giants - doesn't he know who the King of the Nfl is - The Giants will win the Superbowl again - nobody can beat them - man this guy sucks - total fade material - almost every one of his picks is wrong - I can't believe he bet on kevin kolb
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- doesn't he know who the King of the Nfl is - The Giants will win the Superbowl again - nobody can beat them - man this guy sucks - total fade material - almost every one of his picks is wrong - I can't believe he bet on kevin kolb 
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