CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY {5-0 ATS postseason on sides/totals}

NFL Playoffs: Overall 5-2 (+6.8 units)

Sides & Totals: 5-0 (+8 units)

props: 0-2 (-1.2 units)

PHI -2.5 {5u}~ Best Bet

The Eagles are ready for this moment. J. Hurts has impressed me so much not only with his play on the field but his ability to lead this team. He seems as prepared and focused as you can get. I expect him to shine as he has all season and be the difference here. B. Purdy isn’t ready for what is to come on Sunday. The pass rush, the environment, the pressure will be too much for the rookie. And according to Greg Cosell (NFL analyst/ NFL films), there are some major concerns from Purdy on film when he sees significant pressure. He’s not only bailing out too early instead of stepping up in the pocket, he’s rolling out to his left which is dangerous for a right handed QB. This Philly front doesn’t just have 1-2 studs like the 49ers Bosa & Armstead. They have 4 guys with DD sacks that are relentless. The Eagles were 2 sacks short (70) of breaking the NFL record held by the fuckin 85 Bears!

49er backers keep pointing out how the Eagles can’t stop the run. This is not a major concern. Is that they’re one “weakness” on defense. You can say that. But they rank 16th in the league in yards per game given up on the ground (121.4 ypg). Major improvements after signing Joseph & Suh and when Jordan Davis is in the lineup. Howie Roseman is a genius and has assembled an incredible roster- Best roster in team history IMO. I see the Eagles winning this game fairly easily. With all due Respect to SF and the incredible roster they’ve put together. Their time will come soon, but they’re about to run into a Juggernaut.

SF 17

PHI 30

Lean Over

CIN +1 {2u}
I love the physicality, rhythm, and confidence that Cincinnati plays with. I don’t like the motivational edge in this game which definitely goes to the Chiefs. As for coaching- surprisingly I do not find a big edge here. I have been so impressed with Zach Taylor and his game plans in these big games. In fact, someone said that Taylor has never been out-coached in a big post season game, including the SB. I agree. I think Mahomes ankle will definitely be a factor, just not a huge one. I think he’ll be at or above 80%. But, I don’t see him making that huge play with his legs that we so often see in these big spots. The job that Lou Anarumo has done making adjustments late in games and scheming against Travis Kelce in particular is amazing. This will be an incredible game that could go either way. 

CIN  24

KC 20

Lean Under- might make a play on the Un if it gets above 48.. I see plenty of long, time consuming drives, some ending in FG’s, with less big plays. VERY COLD!

2 props:

D. Samuel Ov 20.5 Ru yds {1u}

Going back to the well here. I lost on this Ov prop LW. I’ve noticed how Debo’s rushing usage seems to increase in the postseason. In his postseason career Samuel averages: 5 Attempts / 35.25 Ru yds per game. With McCaffery (calf) and Mitchell (groin) both missing practice this week, I think there will be a few more opportunities for Deebo, who is as dynamic as anyone with the ball. SF will put a heavy focus on their run game this week.

J. Hurts Ov 1.5 TD passes (+110) {1.5u}
Hurts has only thrown 2 or more TD passes in 57% of his games started this year. But, I believe PHI will come out throwing the ball vertically ALOT. With the one so-called “weakness” of SF being their DBs and as elite as their Run D is, Hurts is going to air this thing out. The Eagles have only faced a top ten Run Defense 4x’s this year (TEN, WASH twice, & PIT). In those games, Hurts aired it out and threw 3TDs, 2TDs, 3TDs, & 4TDs respectively. Look for AJ brown to have a BIG game. I like him to score 1st TD

Good Luck everyone! Let’s enjoy and make some Money

On both GL 

Good Writeups

Good analysis 

Well done!!

 @D-Town

@williamMunny

@vanzack

@mrfreedo

@giantsfan

thanks fellas

Looks good.. GL 

@Magic_Steam

 You're neglecting a couple of key points here in your analysis. Purdy is rarely put in a position where he has to make mistakes and the 49ers O Line is the 6th best pass blocking unit in the NFL according to PFF. In addition, Purdy has been the best QB under pressure in the NFL according to advanced stats and rarely puts the ball in harm's way.

A major weakness of the Eagles you and other bettors/analysts/podcasters haven't mentioned is your linebacking core which is undersized and has issues tackling at times. 49ers offense excels at pre snap motion and their passing game relies on getting the ball out quick on crossing routes over the middle to Kittle, Samuel and Aiyuk. Once you get past the 1st level of the defense, it'll be very difficult for Kyzir White and TJ Edwards to stop Kittle/Samuel/Aiyuk which could result in a TD to the house or a massive chunk gain.

CMC and Mitchell will be a load for the Eagles front to stop and the Shanahan scheme excels at getting these guys out in space.

Final point, the 49ers LBers are the best in the league and can neutralize your RB passing game in addition to rushing. Plus Goedert will not be breaking tackles vs them like he did vs the Giants terrible group of LBs. This could make Hurts one dimensional and force him to throw on a lot of 3rd and mediums and longs.

Hurts isn't 100% either and he was sliding early on designed runs last week. 

The 49ers D line has 3 other studs you forgot to mention in Javon Kinlaw, Kerry Hyder and Samson Ebukam. Charles Omenihu is no slouch either. Hurts will be seeing waves of pressure as well.

I think this game will be a classic. Will be just laying off this one and enjoying.

@ayoforyayo

You make some solid points. But, let me address some of the things you mentioned.. The 49ers having the 6th best pass protection rate is not relevant. They have a solid OLine but these dogs on the philly front seven are different. I dont know about the 'advanced stats'  but I see how Purdy hasn't been very good in the pocket when facing pressure. Against Dallas LW, he faced pressure on 16 of his 33 dropbacks. Purdy definately struggled with the pass rush in his face as he completed 4 of his 12 attempts for only 55 yards when under pressure. The Cowboys also registered two sacks and caused two scrambles. Now, I know SF offense is built on quick release passing game. And you're right, they pre-snap motion more than any other team, create good matchups and usually put the rookie in a good postion to succeed. He may only have 4 INT's on the year but doesn't pass the eye test for me as far as putting the ball in harms way. I see this QB as a ticking time bomb. He's going to make a mistake vs this elite defense- and how is he going to handle it?

Philly's LB core is a weakness. IMO, our undersized LB's, who sometimes have tackling issues are the main reason people talk about their run stopping concerns. They need to step up. And where PHI could have problems is McCaffery catching the ball out of the backfield. It's a real issue for these LBs. Kittle/Samuel will eat. They'll get theirs. If Shannahan can consistently scheme McCaffery into space, PHI could be in some trouble.

49ers LBs are phenomenal. Honestly, they're not being talked about enough. But, the Eagles don't rely on RB catches. Warner & Greenlaw will help neutralize PHI run game. But, Hurts should use his legs + the passing game to set up the run later.

Goedert is THE Best TE after the catch in the NFL. He doesnt just run through Giants, he runs through everyone. I don't expect a huge game from him, but he will definitely contribute some big plays.

Hurts may not be 100%, but he's very, very close to it. The injury on 12/18 will Not affect his game in any way on Sunday, trust me. He will also see some pressure, but SF who typically struggles vs mobile QBs better have a plan.

Thank you Magic.... 

I was leaning SF but I will bet Philly. 

@Magic_Steam

 Anytime TD scorer Jalen Hurts -110 just needs 1TD

BOL 

@Buffalobob89074

 84...what was the superbowl that year i aint checking im just hoping..must have been one of my firsts...

Adding:

PHI (-9.5) (+235) 1u

Almost Every Teaser at every book is tied to SF +8.5. With CIN +7.5 early in the week and KC +8 mid week. I already liked the Eagles to win this game easier than most expect. But the thought of the majority of Teasers being dead after this game is appetizing.

#LFG 

E-A-G-L-E-S !