Chiefs-Pats. Thank me later.

LONG post even when I tried to simplify my ideas. I couldve made a 7 page write up easily.  I will divide it in 2 parts. I hope it helps some of you.

I reviewed New Englands playoff losses since 2012 and their losses this season (I included some games which should have been losses). Here is what I found:

2018. Philadelphia (Blount and Ajayi over 6 ypc!)

2016. Broncos (DEFENSE Pats limited to 2.6 ypc and 2 turnovers, and a good performance by CJ Anderson)

2015. Seahawks (I know the Pats won, bc Pete Carroll is a moron, but they should’ve lost that one). The key: Defense limited Pats to 2.7 ypc, and forced 2 turnovers + Beast mode.

4. 2013. Ravens. 3 turnovers by Ray Lewis and Co.   

5. 2012. Giants. Discounting The D limited the Pats backs to 3.5 ypc and 1 turnover. Solid game by Ahmad Bradshaw.

Jaguars. Limited rush game to 3.4 ypc. TJ Yeldon averaged 5.8.

Lions. No one knows the Pats D as Patricia. Check his gameplan for that game. 32 rushes. Now that shows you the path to take to beat the Pats´ D.

Bears.  Same as Seahawks, Bears should’ve won this. 3 turnovers. Pats backs were limited to 3.6 ypc. Except for Michel who back then was the 3 back and averaged more than 5 ypc but only 4 rushes.

Dolphins. Limited rush game to 2.6 ypc. Frank Gore went crazy that game. And a good chunk of good luck for the Fins in the last play.  

Titans. Pats rush limited to 2.1 ypc. Titans rushed for 150.

Steelers. Samuels averaged 7.5 yds for 142.

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The tendency to beat the Patriots is absolutely clear:

1. Run the football. You cannot become a pass only offense, against the greatest mind in sports history.

2. Contain the Pats rushing game. Make them one-dimensional.

3. Win the turnover battle.

**Number 2 tends to leads to turnovers since it is “easier” to put pressure on Brady if you know they are passing. Sonny Michel, as opposed to previous Pats´ backs is great at not giving up the ball. Only 1 fumble this year. We have not seen this year Bellichick benching a RB every couple of weeks due to fumbles. 

Now… considering those 3 bullet points. Let´s see how the Chiefs rank vs the Pats.

1)    1. Rushing offense. Williams has averaged 5 ypc this season. I didn´t give him the credit he deserves. The question is, if they start slow, will Reid commit to the run? This is the reason why I will not bet Williams´ over yet.

2)      2. Limit the Pats rushing game. The Chiefs are the worst team in the league against the run. The Chiefs did not contain Marlon Mack. Don´t look at total yards… check the yards per carry stat (I know its inflated since most long gain rushes were late but still… 5ypc).  The Colts looked bad because of Luck´s inability to convert on the games first possessions. Luck is not and will never be TB12.

3)      3. Turnovers. KC is A+ at pressuring the QB and that forces turnovers. They rank above average in takeaways. However they are facing the king of reading the line of scrimmage and avoiding sacks and errors due to pressure. Who also has a nice O line. **The Chiefs did put an awful lot of pressure on TB12 in their first match up and actually forced 2 fumbles.

*Other matchups/points:

1. Tight Ends. I ended up betting more than my regular bet last week on Kelce. Indy had no way to cover him. New England´s safeties are significantly better and may find how to slow him down, as they did in their first match up.

On the contrary, the only team that gives Indy a close race to being labelled as the worst defense against tight ends, is Kansas City. Despite that Gronk has been dormant he is still Gronk and I expect him to erupt this game.  

***There is a huge asterisk named Eric Berry. Will he play and what is his current level? He could be a huge upgrade trying to cover Gronk.

2. Wide receivers. KC has no chance to contain the Pats´ WR.  I think the Pats can limit KC´s WR.  

Yes, Tyfreak went crazy on their first match up. But Gilmore shadowed Watkins (who ended with 18 miserable yards). I´m sure Bellichick has spent 12+ hours this week thinking only on how to avoid a similar performance by Tyreek. I would love to see Gilmore taking on Tyreek. But Im pretty sure the approach will be the same than last game, and the GOAT will think that the best way to limit that speed is through zone coverages and help from the safety.

3. Weather: Yeah, we know it will be freezing but the forecast shows no wind or snow during the game. Mahomes should be used to it. Brady lives for this. He has played in Foxboro for more than 15 Januaries now.

My prediction:

The game will be sort of a “slow shootout” in the sense that the offenses will not have much problem moving the chains and scoring. However, I expect heavy rushing and the clock may go by fast, so that is the reason why I will not bet the over.

Spread. If this was on a neutral field I would give the Pats a slight edge. Arrowhead´s impact on Brady is not that strong. I think the line is is well set @-3. As it is, New England tempts me, but I will skip it and look for a good spot in play.

MY BETS:

1 unit. Sony Michel Over 77.5 rush yards (you won´t find that anymore ??).

1 units Gronk Over 43,5 yards, and over 45,5 (had to split it between two sites). 

As it is now, I absolutely still like Michel over 80,5 and Gronk over 45,5.

I will not bet the spread yet. But if NE kicks on the 1st half as usual, and the difference is less than a touchdown by halftime, I will almost certainly put some money on the Pats. If KC wins it will be won in the 1st half. And I really hope that NE receives first. I could give Belly some good reasons to do so.  

Based on not having played in a single game, college nor pro, at this temperature?

I'll take the Goat's impressive performance in ~12 games in inclement weather over 20 years to Mahomes 0 games of living in a state that sometimes got that cold over 2 years.

1. Patriots are a totally different team on road (3-5 SU) 1-4 on grass. Throw the Chargers game out, it has no relevance

It's the playoffs, throw that out the window.

2. Gronk is a shell of himself, he is no longer a weapon in the passing game.

His presence still commands respect, in the frigid cold he is an asset protecting Brady as a blocking TE and still a special weapon on select downs, not an every down kind of weapon like he used to be.  Much more important to protect Brady now a days than it is to be an available target.

3. Pats struggle against mobile quarter backs. Pats D is slow and Chiefs have very fast skill position players and have been torched by Hill the last two games.Pats need to win the turnover battle by +2 or better AND have a defensive or ST Touchdown to win.

The frigid artic conditions are going to play a part in exactly how mobile Mohames will be and how "fast" the Chiefs' skill positions will be.  This game will come down to who wins the running game, each of the team's passing attacks will be at 75% of normal.  Stefon Gilmore is the #1 CB in the league, Belichick will have a plan in place to deal with Hill.  I am concerned about Kelce. I think NE has the edge on turnovers, they lead the league in turnover margin the past 3 weeks and the cold conditions should amplify turnover frequency.

You didnt factor made coaches

About Brady's many years' experience in playing in cold temperatures and snow compared Mahomes' little experience, I say Brady's experience edge is neutralized by Mahomes' youth.  Brady may find his body stiff especially if Pat's defense has to be on the field for long stretches of time, while young Mahomes may not feel stiffness at all.

says the troll that hasn't posted a pick the ENTIRE SEASON.

[Quote: Originally Posted by CoreyPaus]About Brady's many years' experience in playing in cold temperatures and snow compared Mahomes' little experience, I say Brady's experience edge is neutralized by Mahomes' youth.  Brady may find his body stiff especially if Pat's defense has to be on the field for long stretches of time, while young Mahomes may not feel stiffness at all.[/Quote

So Mahomes' strength is his lack of experience.

*** Eric Berry practiced in full today ***

Good One Bobby! This man is far far far and may I add light years away from being knocked out or anywhere blown out from ANY competition no matter Whom, when, where, how, or what way you devise to beat him....If you bet against him you will have a valid reason to say why! why! why! when he masterfully and successfully does it yet very possibly once again because plain and simply.....He Will and can beat you with his football mastered mind and with the Brady/Bellichick era still in full swing as we speak which always has been a duo to reckon with and though it will be the Chiefs I will be rooting for this weekend it will be my money that WILL BE locked in my pocket knowing that if the Chiefs do indeed lose I won't be the one saying Why! Why! Why! and it's no doubt..... Because I know better

Thanks for the feedback fellas. 

1. GRONK. I agree with what you have mentioned about Gronk and I said it in my initial post. He aint what he used to be, but he is still an animal with a great match up. On third and 7ish he should be the go to guy. He has averaged 45 ypg this season, but hammered the Chiefs for 90+

2. KC´S PRESSURE. I don´t recall who mentioned this to give him credit, but KC´s pass rush stats are enhanced because they play Oakland and Denver twice. Also, on several games they had huge leads which of course, facilitates sacks and QB hurries. Don´t get me wrong, they are a great unit, but not the best in the league as they try to make it seem. Anyways, they managed to put way more pressure than the average TB gets on any Sunday.

The key to reducing the pressure for the Pats is a good running game.  

3. KC´S RUSH DEFENSE. I see most supporters of KC assuming they will get an early lead. It is likely since almost certainly they will receive. But what if they don´t or if they get stopped on the 1st posession. Regardless, how is KC planning to stop Michel?

4. Turf and grass difference. I am attributing that tendency to a coincidence. I would understand in a sport as soccer that turn/grass difference had an impact. But in football where it only affects the traction, it is not that relevant. Maybe for a kicker, the rest of the guys have dealt with the differences all their careers and footwear allows them to adjust easily. 

5. Eric Berry. Thats Mr. Incognito. If we get the version from 2014, it is a huge upgrade for the Chiefs. But, the truth is, we dont know. There is more to a game than just physical shape. Rythm, balance, chemistry with your teammates on the field. That gets rusty.  Eric Berry is a huge X factor in this game. 

One last comment. If the Pats advance and they get the Saints, I will bet the house on New Orleans.