Cowboys/BUCS

New season, that's good for me, 1st losing season in the NFL since 2009, nothing crazy, I didn't play much but in the red nonetheless. Last 3 years posted write-ups NFL on Covers-

2018, 15-5

2019, 18-5-2

2020, 6-6

I don't play alot of games every week, I'm looking for 1-3 gems, a winning formula for me. Week 1, for me a little trickier, sometimes I don't even play. But we're taking a shot tomorrow

I like the Cowboys passing game,  both these teams receivers may collectively be the two best in the game. In the last 2 seasons under the guidance of OC Kellen Moore, Dak has flourished, his QBR is one of the best at throwing the deep ball, over 20 yards. And with Cooper, Gallup and Lamb, the Bucs secondary will have their hands full. The BUCS will also be without starting safety Jordan Whitehead. When the Bucs struggled last season it was the secondary who faltered, especially against top tier QBS Brees and Mahomes who made a mockery of them during the regular season and in Tampa, both wins. This is the same defense as last year. Bucs DC Todd Bowles is going to do what TB does, come after you. Cowboys O line is good, even without Zack Martin, who may yet play, a whole lot better than the KC beat up line was in the SB. While the Bucs run defense is one of the best in the league, the one RB who had success against them was Dalvin Cook. His speed and quickness off tackle gave them problems. Ezekiel Elliot is the same type of back as Cook and I'm sure the Boys staff has been reviewing tape of that game. 

We all know the Bucs offense, the names are the same, and there's nothing wrong with Bradys arm, I see highlights almost on a daily basis. They're well balanced. The Boyz know their D won't be stellar again, their hope is just to go from bad to average and let the offense win the game.

I think we see points, staying off the side, an exciting Dak vs Tom shootout, offenses prevail, just what the NFL and the rest of us want- 

Over 51, -115

As always good luck to all!

GL this season Russo! I'm seeing a high score game as well. I got Bucs 34, Cowboys 20 

Great write up. My models are all showing the bucs by more than 8 points, hard not to back them. Good luck all. 

great thought process 

@mrusso

@mrusso

My man!    BOL tomorrow and this season!  

Yup, that looks to be the safe  play. I think the Bucs COULD open up a can, but that +8 is tough to beat, but both offenses should be good for a few td's and there is always the spectre of a defensive TD :) Over seems the way to go.

Cheers,

manowarfan1

The line keeps going up on the game tomorrow, I'm seeing 8.5 now, 3 weeks ago it was -6.5, -110. I can see a 7 point difference at the end, just a gut feeling, suspected it would go up, might be 9 tomorrow and Cowboy backers will wait and slam those points. Would make me nervous if I had the Bucs. Dak and company are going to throw some points up, backdoor cover is in play. Just cheering for points here. And as a rez,' a Bucs victory-

Some of you may have read my write-up on Georgia/Clemson, UNDER 52, 10-3 final. Tomorrows game will look like a completely different sport, college or NFL, it won't be boring. 

Call me crazy but I really like the points in this game. I think Dallas defense will be much improved this year and Dak will be in MVP hunt if he can stay healthy. We shall see tomorrow night. Cowboys for 1 unit for me. 

Over is tempting, but I'm concerned with dallas's scoring considering they are missing key pieces of their oline vs bucs strong pass rush and  prescott might be a little rusty too

@canvasback75

 Dak  got big contact and he will play like shjt this   year . 

Ur r nasty at your points +/-   Well written. Got Bucs ML last leg of 3 open parlays. Enjoy da game

@lordbettington

 I hear you, without Zack Martin, their OL depth will be tested. I think they'll be fine, the other guys are pretty good too. Dallas has always had good offensive lineman and depth, it's their defense that has hurt them in recent years. Dak is gonna sling it, his receivers can get down the field, Amari Cooper is a beast. And don't be surprised if Elliott pops a couple of long runs. The BUCS, as unprepared and even dysfunctional at times, in their first game last year with Brady OTR against a very good Saints defense still managed to put up 23 points despite losing. They're prepared this season and I don't believe they'll miss a beat offensively. If they don't get turnover happy, pencil them in for 30+. I'm not always right but this has the feeling of a shootout, 34-27 kind of game.

@canvasback75

 I initially thought blowout but my gut now telling me close game. Only way that happens is Dak and his offense must perform well. Like I said in my initial post, we saw top tier QBs pick the Bucs secondary apart last year and I would put a healthy Dak Prescott in the same category. And Amari Cooper is a beast, did I say that before? Fantasy players will be happy if they have him starting, 150 yds receiving, 2 TDs a very real possibility against a suspect secondary minus their starting safety.

@xMORTICIANx

 I never used to play totals. But as I got further along and more in depth with research, I started noticing trends, patterns, some teams always played low scoring games, some always shootouts, different trends where points were involved and it just made sense to take advantage of it, winning money, doesn't really matter the bet. I still play alot more sides just coincidence that my first 2 plays/posts happen to be O/U's. GL in your plays!

nice write up

Good luck Mrusso 

I think I’m going with buccs-2/over45.5 teaser myself 

Sharp analysis.  Good luck.

Whitehead out does matter.  Dak likes to throw deep.  Whitehead is an effective blitzer and tackler, good formula to stop elliot and go after dak without martin protecting.

Not a huge deal but important imo.

We'll see tomorrow.

@mrusso

I like it, Dak and McCarthy went over each game together except for their season opener @ LAR.  I'll be at the game tonight so I hope there's enough fireworks for your over  to hit 

I can't see the Cowboys moving the ball even with Dak back at QB ,but WTF do I know.

BOL 

With the Cowboys offensive tackles back this year that should help Dak throw and the Bucs should be able to score points so the over makes sense..The Cowboys Defense is not good and really needs Parsons to have an excellent year for them going forward.. GL Tonight mrusso 

Good luck bro!

Estellar write up with lots of key points. I'm all over the OVER. Might tease The Bucs and Over. 

Good luck this season