Posted:
#1
I am only 15-17 on the year, so nothing said here is a mortal lock.
The Last 6 Switcheroo (L6S) query says to take the PO team that has FEWER wins in the last 6 games. The query:
S(W, N=6) < oS(W, N=6) and playoffs = 1
ATS: 72-46-4 (2.69, 61.0%)
It was a horrible 2-6 ATS last year. This year in Week 18 it likes TEN, JAC and NO.
I added two parameters I will not disclose and last year the L6S+ would have been 2-2 ATS. Overall the L6S+ ATS is 28-8-2 (5.97, 77.8%0). The L6S+ likes TEN and NO in Week 16.
Will Bill's 3 Blowouts says to take teams with at least 3 regular-season blowout victories of 20+ points against teams that only had 2 or less. It does not say take the teams with more BO's between 2 qualifiers. This year's qualifiers are NE, JAC, PHL, LAR and NO. Wild Bill says the SB winner usually was a qualifier; DEN over CAR was a recent exception. The 3BO system dominated the L6S in 2017; in 2016 the L6S prevailed.
I don't know how to word the query to check the validity of Will Bill's hypothesis, so I am unable to tweak it.
In Week 18 the 3BO method selects JAC, LAR and NO.
TheClaw, FunkFreaker and EastsideBangers all like KC, so that made me reluctant to bet 3 units on TEN like I was contemplating. I decided to just tease the 2 teams the L6S+ chose.
TEN +14 and NO -0.5 1.2 units ? 1.0 unit
A note on the ATL-LAR game: the strength of the L6S would imply that resting starters in Week 17 (and taking a likely loss) helps PO results. However, teams that are blown out by 20+ points in Week 17 are just 1-7 ATS in Week 18 with an average losing margin of 14.19 points.
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I deliberately posted this late because I really don't want tailers. This is just for the record.
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