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Den-Pitt off the board??

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Posted: #26
Thoughts on the games this week bud?

I went 2-1 last week. Pounded the Pack which was nice, had a dead wrong side in HOU, and luckboxed Cincy. I'll take it though as there have been 7 OT games in the NHL since Saturday and I'm 0-6 in them. 
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:


The only way you are getting Pitt at +7.5 or more is if Big Ben and Brown don't play. At which point you don't want Pitt anymore.
  I wouldn't  take +9.5 
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Thoughts on the games this week bud?

I went 2-1 last week. Pounded the Pack which was nice, had a dead wrong side in HOU, and luckboxed Cincy. I'll take it though as there have been 7 OT games in the NHL since Saturday and I'm 0-6 in them. 

Hey bro. 

I've been so off the last 3 weeks(really since about week 10 or so nothing but treading water, so was trying to avoid any kind of long writeup or analysis as I'm just not seeing these teams(or the league) really good. Also was planning on waiting things out as I got railroaded with bad lines last week, and just wanted to practice some patience and let things come as they may. 

This round of playoffs I always start the week with that old school mentality that the home bye teams are a blowout waiting to happen. I know the NFL has changed the last few years and parity and things aren't quite like that anymore, but my mindset generally is there's gonna be a pair of blowouts, a third game where the dog is beat but covers, and then one upset. 

That's not set in stone as every year is a different story, but it's where I like to start. 

Quick thoughts: the two blowouts are Denver and NE, the packers hang tight and just cover the 7, and Seattle pulls the upset. 



 
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Posted: #29
Glyde, I like your thinking here. I see an upset in the waiting and I feel like the other 3 games may be covered by the favorite. Still early but that's where I lean. It's hard for me to think that without adams, who granted hasn't been the most consistent, the pack could struggle. The packs defense was great last week but Arians over the bye watching tape of green bay, he's too good of a coach not to be ready. Let's not pretend that once he even thought Washington would beat GB. Seeing GB a few weeks ago AND being able to disect them for an extra week while his guys rest.....it could be a back door cover at the end for Zona to cover. As for Denver and NE, the easy thinking is they cover but for me it's almost too good to be true seeing manning and Brady AGAIN but with home field ending up the way it being in denver, it sets up for a showdown, this time in Denver one last time. A few more days to cap but my two cents here amigo. I follow you a lot brotha in that I feel you are in the small fraternity that knows what they are talking about on here. As always, thanks for the insight and BOL amigo
 
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Posted: #30
I tend to agree Glyde.

I actually think all 4 favs win this week. I've already pounded NE for the same amount I had the Pack last week. May get burned with bad weather on the line but oh well.

Feel one of PIT/GB dirties up a cover but neither win. Zona is better at every position on the field except LB and maybe S and they are leagues better on offense. It took PIT everything they had and DEN not scoring a point in the 2H for them to beat DEN in Pittsburgh with Osweiler. Now with hobbled Ben and maybe no Brown (16 rec 189 yrds 2TD in that game), they aren't beating Denver in mile high. Tempted to lay the points with both teams but may end up just doing a ML parlay.

I've been on Seattle quite a bit during their previous two runs. I'm not sold on them this year. Will try to find time for a writeup but I'll be on the Panthers. 



 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

Glyde, I like your thinking here. I see an upset in the waiting and I feel like the other 3 games may be covered by the favorite. Still early but that's where I lean. It's hard for me to think that without adams, who granted hasn't been the most consistent, the pack could struggle. The packs defense was great last week but Arians over the bye watching tape of green bay, he's too good of a coach not to be ready. Let's not pretend that once he even thought Washington would beat GB. Seeing GB a few weeks ago AND being able to disect them for an extra week while his guys rest.....it could be a back door cover at the end for Zona to cover. As for Denver and NE, the easy thinking is they cover but for me it's almost too good to be true seeing manning and Brady AGAIN but with home field ending up the way it being in denver, it sets up for a showdown, this time in Denver one last time. A few more days to cap but my two cents here amigo. I follow you a lot brotha in that I feel you are in the small fraternity that knows what they are talking about on here. As always, thanks for the insight and BOL amigo

BOL bro! Appreciate the thoughts! 
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

I tend to agree Glyde.

I actually think all 4 favs win this week. I've already pounded NE for the same amount I had the Pack last week. May get burned with bad weather on the line but oh well.

Feel one of PIT/GB dirties up a cover but neither win. Zona is better at every position on the field except LB and maybe S and they are leagues better on offense. It took PIT everything they had and DEN not scoring a point in the 2H for them to beat DEN in Pittsburgh with Osweiler. Now with hobbled Ben and maybe no Brown (16 rec 189 yrds 2TD in that game), they aren't beating Denver in mile high. Tempted to lay the points with both teams but may end up just doing a ML parlay.

I've been on Seattle quite a bit during their previous two runs. I'm not sold on them this year. Will try to find time for a writeup but I'll be on the Panthers. 




I was thinking the same with possibly doing a ML parlay to avoid the backdoor in two of the games. 

Seattle.....I think my "heart" is clouding my judgement in this one. I'm pretty heartless when it comes to being a fan. For instance, I'm a Bears fan since 1985 and a few years ago it was GB -3.5 week 17 against the Bears. Winner gets into the playoffs. And I bet GB! I was listening to the game(happened to be on the road) on the radio, and I screamed so loud when Rodgers connected on that miracle TD that I got dizzy and almost crashed my car. 

Anyway, Seattle the closest thing to me being a fan in modern history. Going way back to the game I believe you and me both were on. Seattle was like a 10 point home dog in the playoffs as a weak 8-8 4 seed. Playing the Saints who were like an 11-5 wild card squad coming into the playoffs on a 9 game winning streak or something, and I'm pretty sure we hammered Seattle +10.5 and ML +400 in one of your old threads and cleaned up. 

So seeing the line open up at Carolina -1.5 with my book......my first instinct....bye week....15-1 season....rested.....playing a Seattle team who have been in playoff mode for months, never a break, coming off an insane emotional win in absurd weather.....and it's pretty much a PICKEM???? Since then it's moved to 3 and now 2.5. And don't think I thought Carolina should have been -7 or anything, but I was thinking it opens at 4 and lets the sharks dictate whether it's -5 or -3 in a day or two. 

Ahhhh, my mind is all over the place. 1-3 last week and then the Bama backdoor got my mind all hazy!!! Playoffs are usually a winning time and that start has me twisted. Plus Seattle and the babble above I rambled about and I'm kinda torn....then there's this Denver/Pitt mess, and then there's NE-KC who I hate both of those teams. If u ask me last week which of the 12 playoff teams are the most overrated, I say KC and NE without blinking and now they play each other. 


 
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Posted: #33
Seattle will lose this one, should lost last game. Carolina
 
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Posted: #34
Ahhhh good memories of that Saints/Hawks game back in the day.

Here's my thoughts on this game:

If you are a numbers guy, the Seahawks are by any measure one of, if not the top team in the league. And that is clearly built into this pointspread. Any numbers guy is going to be on Seattle. But I'm not buying it. I've watched Seattle this year. They aren't as good as previous editions. Numbers can tell you a lot, but so can just watching games. Intangibles still count. 

I read this board and see Seahawk backers saying Carolina has played a weak schedule. Maybe so, but what has Seattle done against good teams? Let's look: 

Week 2 @ GB...off a loss, a spot good teams play well in...they blow a 4th quarter lead and lose by DD.

Week 5 @ CIN...off a very poor/lucky win over the winless Lions...a game where Seattle should be motivated to play better...they blow a huge lead and lose in OT.

Week 6 vs CAR...at home off a loss vs an unbeaten team..Seattle never loses at home. Good teams win this game. Yet they give up 146 pass yards in the 4th and blow a two score lead.

Week 10 vs Zona...at home off a bye and trailing in the division. Game is on SNF. This is a statement game. Seattle is thoroughly outplayed. 39-32 loss is flattering. SEA got two fumbles deep in Zona territory to take a gift lead that they would quickly blow.

Week 12 vs PIT...back and forth game that SEA won and covered, but they were +4 TO. They covered on an 80-yd TD pass in the final minute with PIT selling out to stop the run. This was also the game Ben removed himself late with a concussion and Landry Jones came in and threw 2 picks. PIT had 538 yards in this game and Ben was moving the ball all over the field. Seattle also blew a lead in this game. 

I'm not putting any stock whatsoever in their Week 17 win in Zona. I watched that game and SEA cared infinitely more than Arizona did. Arians quickly called off the dogs in what IMO what a genius decision.

The pattern has been the same all season for these guys...blown leads vs good teams and in spots where good teams rise up and win, they fall short. Just look at last week! They let Teddy Effin Bridgewater drive down the field on them for the win. Seattle has throttled pure garbage and not played well vs good teams. People want to say CAR is a phony, but IMO it is the Seahawks.

Carolina has been a great team all season. They make the key plays when they need to. They've been money all season. Wins over Wilson, Luck, Rodgers, Romo (guy who was 15-4 in last season + until CAR undressed him on Thanksgiving), Brees, and Manning.

It's also a bad spot for Seattle. For some stupid reason they go all out two weeks ago in Zona. Then they play a 10AM game in Minny last week that was very physically taxing. Then they go home and fly back to CAR for their 3rd straight road game at 10AM with miles and bruises to play a rested and very physical team. Bad spot IMO.

Carolina also had a dog attitude. I keep seeing how Seattle is playing this "us against the world" nonsense. I don't buy that crap for one second. These guys have been to b2b Super Bowls. It's hilarious to think they are disrespected. Just look at this spread. The ONLY team that is disrespected in this game is the 15-1 home team.

I'm on Carolina. Might even get dog money FFS. 
 
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Posted: #35
Sorry people, we don't talk ill of the Seattle Seahawks in any of glides threads.

You can throw all the numbers, stats, opinions and whatever else you got and it is still the Seahawks or no play.

No stat, no feel, no lean, no spot can change the fact that the 4th quarter of an NFL playoff game is Russell Wilson time. The clutchest player in the NFL. Add on top of this the best defense in the NFL and it is simply bankroll suicide to bet against the Hawks in the playoffs.....Not to mention laying 3 points on top of that? No. thank. you. 
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:

Sorry people, we don't talk ill of the Seattle Seahawks in any of glides threads.

You can throw all the numbers, stats, opinions and whatever else you got and it is still the Seahawks or no play.

No stat, no feel, no lean, no spot can change the fact that the 4th quarter of an NFL playoff game is Russell Wilson time. The clutchest player in the NFL. Add on top of this the best defense in the NFL and it is simply bankroll suicide to bet against the Hawks in the playoffs.....Not to mention laying 3 points on top of that? No. thank. you. 

You have any thoughts on Steelers/Broncos game? 
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:

Sorry people, we don't talk ill of the Seattle Seahawks in any of glides threads.

You can throw all the numbers, stats, opinions and whatever else you got and it is still the Seahawks or no play.

No stat, no feel, no lean, no spot can change the fact that the 4th quarter of an NFL playoff game is Russell Wilson time. The clutchest player in the NFL. Add on top of this the best defense in the NFL and it is simply bankroll suicide to bet against the Hawks in the playoffs.....Not to mention laying 3 points on top of that? No. thank. you. 

If you bet on the Seahawks in their last 3 playoff games and the 5 "playoff type" regular seasons games I listed above you'd have ONE win...in EIGHT games. Team is living off the weak + rep. Very definition of overvalued.


 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:


If you bet on the Seahawks in their last 3 playoff games and the 5 "playoff type" regular seasons games I listed above you'd have ONE win...in EIGHT games. Team is living off the weak + rep. Very definition of overvalued.



I've actually bet on Seattle every playoff game with Wilson

@wash - W, cover (down 14-0 also cleaned up ingame)
@Atl - Cover (also had lock of my life that game Sea +20.5 ingame)

vs NO - cover
vs SF - Cover
vs Denver - blowout cover

vs Car - cover
vs NO - cover
vs GB - didnt cover by 1 pt
vs NE - Shoulda won and covered, horrible memories

Vs minnesota: didnt cover, cleaned up on ML.

Sorry man, I love the Hawks and Russell Wilson and know what this team can do if they play a good game. They are hands down the best team in the NFL. When they play bad like the did on Sunday, they still comeback to win.

@europa no I will be laying off this game I have absolutely no read on it. I love Seattle, love Arizona, like New England and no play on  on Denver game 

 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:


I've actually bet on Seattle every playoff game with Wilson

@wash - W, cover (down 14-0 also cleaned up ingame)
@Atl - Cover (also had lock of my life that game Sea +20.5 ingame)

vs NO - cover
vs SF - Cover
vs Denver - blowout cover

vs Car - cover
vs NO - cover
vs GB - didnt cover by 1 pt
vs NE - Shoulda won and covered, horrible memories

Vs minnesota: didnt cover, cleaned up on ML.

Sorry man, I love the Hawks and Russell Wilson and know what this team can do if they play a good game. They are hands down the best team in the NFL. When they play bad like the did on Sunday, they still comeback to win.

@europa no I will be laying off this game I have absolutely no read on it. I love Seattle, love Arizona, like New England and no play on  on Denver game 


Very well, best of luck! 
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:






So seeing the line open up at Carolina -1.5 with my book......my first instinct....bye week....15-1 season....rested.....playing a Seattle team who have been in playoff mode for months, never a break, coming off an insane emotional win in absurd weather.....and it's pretty much a PICKEM???? Since then it's moved to 3 and now 2.5. And don't think I thought Carolina should have been -7 or anything, but I was thinking it opens at 4 and lets the sharks dictate whether it's -5 or -3 in a day or two. 




Me and my friend had a long talk about this going into the playoffs and we came to the conclusion there was no way on earth this game would ever hit Carolina 3.5...I said -2.5, and he said -3 and it opened at my book at Seattle +3 (-120).

Seattle is simply too good, too capable and too dangerous to be getting more than a FG, even if they are playing on Mars.

 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:

Sorry people, we don't talk ill of the Seattle Seahawks in any of glides threads.

You can throw all the numbers, stats, opinions and whatever else you got and it is still the Seahawks or no play.

No stat, no feel, no lean, no spot can change the fact that the 4th quarter of an NFL playoff game is Russell Wilson time. The clutchest player in the NFL. Add on top of this the best defense in the NFL and it is simply bankroll suicide to bet against the Hawks in the playoffs.....Not to mention laying 3 points on top of that? No. thank. you. 

Earth....its eating me alive.....but Andy's RIGHT!!! Ahh, I don't understand this strange foreign feeling.....I'm a Seahawks fan!!! I forgot what it's like to be a fan!!!

Man, every instinct in my body tells me Carolina is the play. I agree with every word in his post. Blowing a lot of those leads....I can argue that like in prior years and with the early season injuries and Cam holding out the first month...Seattles a different team than "that" team who blew those leads. But that Pitt game...I had Seattle....lucky to cover. Rams who are very similarly built to Carolina(minus the very important all pro QB)....they just beat up Seattle. Then the battle in Arizona which I was shocked Carroll went all out the way he did. That move though which IMO was a lose-lose-lose situation turned out to be a big win as I believe it really set the stage for this team to ROAR into the playoffs. Then fly to Minny. Insane weather. Grueling battle. Fly all the back to Seattle. Heal up the best u can before flying back 3000 miles to Carolina. Where a 15-1 team is waiting healthy and rested. A team who is 15-1 and STILL are hearing that they are overrated and didn't beat anyone. A team who has been nipping at a deep playoff run for a couple years, but it just never materialized. 

 This is a textbook "spot" in Gambling 101 and when I saw that line open at -1.5, all that went through my head. 

EDIT: As I'm writing, I refreshed my book and Carolina went from -2.5 -120 to Carolina -1 -110. 

Yet there's a part of me that says what u said, Earth. Sometimes there's no spot or stat in the world that's gonna stop a team like Seattle in past years. Or GB their season. Or the two miracle Giant runs of 2007 and 2011.  Or am I (gulp) a Seahawks homer at this point??!!

Common sense says bet the other 3 games, root Seattle as a fan. But this Denver game stinks on ice. Ne/KC stinks. I do lean packers and would love to see it float to +8/+8.5 by kickoff. 

This is just a disappointing season in every aspect. For the first time since October 2012(got wiped out in football pretty bad to start that season AND dealt with Hurricane Sandy) and thankfully I came back strong in playoffs and bowl games two months later, but this is the first time since then where I'm not having fun doing my favorite hobby on the planet. Just a rough stretch, an awful weekend last weekend(IMO was a couple plays from being 3-2 or even 4-1 compared to 1-4). 

For everyone bringing AWESOME discussion.  Please keep it coming. I'm a confident and cocky guy most of the time, but I'm lost right now and all the great info from an awesome crew of dudes is super helpful. Love it!  
 
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Posted: #42
Haha, just got to scroll a little bit down and seeing Earth and Andy battling. Great stuff guys! If im Luke Skywalker, Earth is Obi-Wan and Andy is Yoda. 

Two beast cappers. Love seeing the back and forth and then a dozen other great cappers popping in and out. Awesome stuff. 
 
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Posted: #43
Glyde, I don't like the fact that the line is dropping. I'm a psychological capper and Carolina getting disrespected by the oddsmakers is not good. Hopefully that line moves back up a little. Having said that, I'm on Seattle and will continue to ride them until they lose. They've won too much money for me over the past two years. I almost owe it to them. I think either Seattle will put a beating on them, or it will be a tight game. That's why I like Seattle. I'll take Wilson over Cam in a close game any day. 

 River Boat Ron does not scare me. In fact, he is my biggest source of comfort. You can expect at least one or two boneheaded moves by that guy. How the Hawks integrate Lynch into the offense, how comfortable he is in that role, and how well he plays are the unknowns that you gotta live with as a Seattle backer. But having closely followed the NFC West for the last 4 years, no division in football has been tougher. Carolina will have to play its best game of the season to win this game, which is saying a lot for a 15-1 team. Good luck.
 
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Posted: #44
Andarmac - nice to see your writeup.  I have said the same things all season about the Hawks and feel its the "sharp trap" of the week, just like Wash was last weekend.  The Hawks alleged elite D has been shredded by all good offenses this year, unlike prior efforts.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Glyde, I don't like the fact that the line is dropping. I'm a psychological capper and Carolina getting disrespected by the oddsmakers is not good. Hopefully that line moves back up a little. Having said that, I'm on Seattle and will continue to ride them until they lose. They've won too much money for me over the past two years. I almost owe it to them. I think either Seattle will put a beating on them, or it will be a tight game. That's why I like Seattle. I'll take Wilson over Cam in a close game any day. 

 River Boat Ron does not scare me. In fact, he is my biggest source of comfort. You can expect at least one or two boneheaded moves by that guy. How the Hawks integrate Lynch into the offense, how comfortable he is in that role, and how well he plays are the unknowns that you gotta live with as a Seattle backer. But having closely followed the NFC West for the last 4 years, no division in football has been tougher. Carolina will have to play its best game of the season to win this game, which is saying a lot for a 15-1 team. Good luck.

BB, u just said something that summed up 11 posts of what I'm trying to say......"I almost owe it too them." Seattle been so good to me. 


Appreciate your thoughts!!  BOL dude! 
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

Haha, just got to scroll a little bit down and seeing Earth and Andy battling. Great stuff guys! If im Luke Skywalker, Earth is Obi-Wan and Andy is Yoda. 

Two beast cappers. Love seeing the back and forth and then a dozen other great cappers popping in and out. Awesome stuff. 


Great stuff man. On Monday night I won 2k in an online poker tournament so I dropped 400 on the Hawks to win the superbowl. I'm pretty vested in this game.

The biggest X factor to me in this game is the weather in last weeks game. My feeling is when you are forced to play in -20 degree wind chill weather you are basically in hell. It hurts to even move and breath. Now, Seattle gets to go Carolina and play in 45 degree weather where they will feel like heaven. They will feel so comfortable and come out and play a fantastic game. Sounds a little dumb but these guys are human. Imagine how you feel when its bitter cold and the next day its warm and sunny. You feel like a new person.

I also feel the pressure is on Carolina. All of it. Hawks are playing with house money after last week. Carolina went 15-1 and imagine the failure of this season if they go one and done. It would be a failure. If the Hawks go up 7-0 in this game you will be able to feel the tension in the crowd. (Not gonna lie I don't mind if Seattle goes down early so I can hit the ingame)

Very confident in this game, but I've been wrong before. 

glyde 
 
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Posted: #47
Done overthinking. 

NE -4 
GB +7
Seattle +1 +105
Denver -7 -115 

Good luck to all and love all the discussion and insight! 
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:



Great stuff man. On Monday night I won 2k in an online poker tournament so I dropped 400 on the Hawks to win the superbowl. I'm pretty vested in this game.

The biggest X factor to me in this game is the weather in last weeks game. My feeling is when you are forced to play in -20 degree wind chill weather you are basically in hell. It hurts to even move and breath. Now, Seattle gets to go Carolina and play in 45 degree weather where they will feel like heaven. They will feel so comfortable and come out and play a fantastic game. Sounds a little dumb but these guys are human. Imagine how you feel when its bitter cold and the next day its warm and sunny. You feel like a new person.

I also feel the pressure is on Carolina. All of it. Hawks are playing with house money after last week. Carolina went 15-1 and imagine the failure of this season if they go one and done. It would be a failure. If the Hawks go up 7-0 in this game you will be able to feel the tension in the crowd. (Not gonna lie I don't mind if Seattle goes down early so I can hit the ingame)

Very confident in this game, but I've been wrong before. 

glyde 

Good stuff, Earth. Let's go Seahawks!!
 
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Posted: #49
Good luck, Glyde! 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Good thoughts in here. Anybody want to add what Luke McCown did against the Panthers in Carolina?
  • 31/38 for 310 yards with a 8.2 average
The line is what it is because the Panthers are overrated and 15-1 due solely to their level of competition.

Seattle suffered through a Superbowl hangover early on and was missing several stars on defense for multiple games not to mention Marshawn Lynch, and getting their TE accumulated to their system. This isn't October anymore and the Seahawks are completely healthy, i'd be very surprised if Carolina won on Sunday
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