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Den-Pitt off the board??

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Ahhhh good memories of that Saints/Hawks game back in the day.

Here's my thoughts on this game:

If you are a numbers guy, the Seahawks are by any measure one of, if not the top team in the league. And that is clearly built into this pointspread. Any numbers guy is going to be on Seattle. But I'm not buying it. I've watched Seattle this year. They aren't as good as previous editions. Numbers can tell you a lot, but so can just watching games. Intangibles still count. 

I read this board and see Seahawk backers saying Carolina has played a weak schedule. Maybe so, but what has Seattle done against good teams? Let's look: 

Week 2 @ GB...off a loss, a spot good teams play well in...they blow a 4th quarter lead and lose by DD.

Week 5 @ CIN...off a very poor/lucky win over the winless Lions...a game where Seattle should be motivated to play better...they blow a huge lead and lose in OT.

Week 6 vs CAR...at home off a loss vs an unbeaten team..Seattle never loses at home. Good teams win this game. Yet they give up 146 pass yards in the 4th and blow a two score lead.

Week 10 vs Zona...at home off a bye and trailing in the division. Game is on SNF. This is a statement game. Seattle is thoroughly outplayed. 39-32 loss is flattering. SEA got two fumbles deep in Zona territory to take a gift lead that they would quickly blow.

Week 12 vs PIT...back and forth game that SEA won and covered, but they were +4 TO. They covered on an 80-yd TD pass in the final minute with PIT selling out to stop the run. This was also the game Ben removed himself late with a concussion and Landry Jones came in and threw 2 picks. PIT had 538 yards in this game and Ben was moving the ball all over the field. Seattle also blew a lead in this game. 

I'm not putting any stock whatsoever in their Week 17 win in Zona. I watched that game and SEA cared infinitely more than Arizona did. Arians quickly called off the dogs in what IMO what a genius decision.

The pattern has been the same all season for these guys...blown leads vs good teams and in spots where good teams rise up and win, they fall short. Just look at last week! They let Teddy Effin Bridgewater drive down the field on them for the win. Seattle has throttled pure garbage and not played well vs good teams. People want to say CAR is a phony, but IMO it is the Seahawks.

Carolina has been a great team all season. They make the key plays when they need to. They've been money all season. Wins over Wilson, Luck, Rodgers, Romo (guy who was 15-4 in last season + until CAR undressed him on Thanksgiving), Brees, and Manning.

It's also a bad spot for Seattle. For some stupid reason they go all out two weeks ago in Zona. Then they play a 10AM game in Minny last week that was very physically taxing. Then they go home and fly back to CAR for their 3rd straight road game at 10AM with miles and bruises to play a rested and very physical team. Bad spot IMO.

Carolina also had a dog attitude. I keep seeing how Seattle is playing this "us against the world" nonsense. I don't buy that crap for one second. These guys have been to b2b Super Bowls. It's hilarious to think they are disrespected. Just look at this spread. The ONLY team that is disrespected in this game is the 15-1 home team.

I'm on Carolina. Might even get dog money FFS. 

I completely agree.  I'm reading that the public is on Car while sharps are on Sea but I don't see how thats the case.  Seattle seems to be a VERY public dog this week, and I like how the spread has plummeted to Car -1.  Car will expose Seattle's O-line woes and have RW scrambling all day.  Car should take care of business at home by at least 7 and I'll be playing the alt spread for sure.

Chiefs are another public darling.  ESP without Maclin or a limited Maclin I don't think they have a shot.  Pats should handle them rather easily.

GB/Zona is tough.  I do agree and think GB had a favorable matchup lw v the Skins but they really are not a great team this year.  I hate laying chalk but I see a pissed off Zona team coming out and wrecking havoc.  Everyone questioning their Defense now w/o Matheiu, but it shouldn't be an issue.

Last game very tough with so many variables with injuries.  Again I play a majority of dogs and I'm digging for a reason to back Pitt but can't really find one.  Landry Jones has played fine when hes been asked to come in, but usually when people don't give a team ANY shot, the underdog usually finds a way to surprise everyone.  I wouldn't sleep on Tomlin and I don't think Kubiak is anything special.  Its funny how this situation is flipped from the Tebow playoff game a few years ago.  Denver was the 6.5 pt dog with the back-up/inexperienced QB playing vs Pitt and they managed to pull the upset, now the script is flipped.  Want to take Pitt but likely staying away.  
 
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Posted: #52
Hey MichFan! Great stuff! Appreciate you taking the time to pop in with some great insight. 

How you been, bro?  

 
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Posted: #53
Looks like weather will be a major issue in the NE game. There's a nor-Easter rolling up the coast. Looks to be a total washout with winds in the 20-25mph range. LOOKS that way, but I'm on weather.com and the forecast is basically some rain early and then it dries out. I don't know. That's either one fast moving storm, or it's going out to sea or something. 

Any local Boston guys have a better forecast? 

When I locked up NE -4, I called it assuming rain and wind. In that case, who does that favor? I think u can make an argument either way, if it turns to a run run run sloppy game, I'm leaning towards NE. I think Coach B will have a great defensive plan where he will be able to stuff the run completely, while spying Smith and keeping contain so he doesn't beat them with his legs, and all while keeping Kelce bottled up. It doesn't look like Maclin will be suiting up and even if he does, I can't imagine he's anywhere close to 100%. 

Now if NE gameplans Kelce like I think they will, and u take Maclin out of the offense....no Maclin....doesn't leave many options for Smith outside of screens, swings, and dump offs to their running backs. There is a young WR on the Chiefs who has stepped up this year(can't think of his name) but I can't imagine he makes too much of an impact. I think coaching wins this in the end. 

On the other side, we all know what Brady can do in monsoon conditions in the playoffs(cornholed the Colts last year). Will the balls be inflated to his liking so he can make throws in that rain and wind? Lol, we will see. 

One last thing. I believe Suuma had a fantastic thread about the Pats pretty much having 4 weeks off to rest up and get healthy for the playoffs. Watching the dolphin game again, I realize now that they weren't in that game to destroy. Coach B and company made sure that they showed NOTHING for future reference. I think they possibly thought they were good enough to throw out a halfa$$ed plan and still win, but that wasn't meant to be. Anyway, normally when a team starts resting players weeks 16-17 and then has rhe bye and 3-4 weeks off....normally I view that as a negative thing. The team that really comes to mind was the Packers in Dec 2011 into Jan 2012. 

Packers started testing guys in week 16. Week 17 the entire team did not play. They had the bye first round of the playoffs, and hosted the Giants at Lambeau and I want to say they were -10 or maybe -11. Packers had just crushed the Giants a few weeks back and almost was the game that booted them from the playoffs, but Giants rallied and every game in December was basically a playoff game for them. I believe they had Atlanta first round and dominated them. Came into Lambeau battle tested, while GB were pretty much in training camp the last month.....and it wasnt until after halftime that GB realized what hit them and by then it was too late. 

So normally, all that rest is a bad thing IMO. This feels different though. Not that McCarthy/Philbin/Capers are bad coaches or anything, but I think Bill B and his crew aren't gonna let NE come out flat and they know exactly what's needed to be done to come out of the tunnel tomorrow at 4:30pm already in 5th gear. The Pats injury problems were also a much bigger issue and that entire o-line, entire WR Corp, and a handful of key defensive players really needed that time off. And they are all healthy and ready to go now. 

Pats 31-13. 
 
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Posted: #54
Very fast moving Nor'Easter coming through mostly overnight tonight. Rain supposed to be over by noon. Not a ton of wind (Nor"easter can be up to 50mph) but will prob be noticeable during the game.

Great thoughts bro. 

I jumped on NE early at -5. Going to get shafted with the line but I think they win comfy. Kansas City is not going to score in this game. The offense is not built to play with great QBs. They have not had to play from behind during their win streak over bad teams. Maclin will not be factor even if he plays. Belichick with take away Kelce. What other weapons does KC have? This is the game where they miss Jamaal Charles. West and Ware have been decent fill ins rushing the ball...but they aren't Charles. Charles is a weapon on every play. He catches a ton of passes whereas the other guys don't. KC doesn't have the screen game without Charles and that's huge here against NE's pass rush. Charles had 21 catches in 4.5 games this year. West and Ware have combined for 26 all season. I think people forget too how good NE's D was when healthy. They get everyone back this week. Everyone has focused on the injuries on offense, but only two defensive players have started every game.

I understand KC has a really solid D. They could hold the Pats down, but I still think NE finds ways to get points. They scored 27 points every game this year with Edelman, Gronk, and Amendola in there. They also won't give the ball away. Houston just gave the ball away last week. KC didn't really force those TO, they were just awful throws. Brady won't make those mistakes. 

Think NE covers even if they score 20.

 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by Michfan15:


I completely agree.  I'm reading that the public is on Car while sharps are on Sea but I don't see how thats the case.  Seattle seems to be a VERY public dog this week, and I like how the spread has plummeted to Car -1.  Car will expose Seattle's O-line woes and have RW scrambling all day.  Car should take care of business at home by at least 7 and I'll be playing the alt spread for sure.

Chiefs are another public darling.  ESP without Maclin or a limited Maclin I don't think they have a shot.  Pats should handle them rather easily.

GB/Zona is tough.  I do agree and think GB had a favorable matchup lw v the Skins but they really are not a great team this year.  I hate laying chalk but I see a pissed off Zona team coming out and wrecking havoc.  Everyone questioning their Defense now w/o Matheiu, but it shouldn't be an issue.

Last game very tough with so many variables with injuries.  Again I play a majority of dogs and I'm digging for a reason to back Pitt but can't really find one.  Landry Jones has played fine when hes been asked to come in, but usually when people don't give a team ANY shot, the underdog usually finds a way to surprise everyone.  I wouldn't sleep on Tomlin and I don't think Kubiak is anything special.  Its funny how this situation is flipped from the Tebow playoff game a few years ago.  Denver was the 6.5 pt dog with the back-up/inexperienced QB playing vs Pitt and they managed to pull the upset, now the script is flipped.  Want to take Pitt but likely staying away.  



I grabbed Seattle earlier in the week, and have been coming to the same realization.  Just doesn't feel right.  Good stuff in here.


 
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Posted: #56
GB I locked up +7 earlier, and although I think the game has a much higher chance of being 8 or 8.5 by kickoff opposed to 6 or 6.5, after a rough couple of weeks, I wanted to just get my bets in and stop the process of overthinking. 

The Packers.....recently beat up horribly by the Cards. Rodgers sacked something like 8 times. Probably the reason I saw him with happy feet hearing footsteps every time he stepped back to pass the last couplr games for the first time in his career. Huge blow out. I don't think that happens again. One, the backup OT that was responsible for pretty much every sack that game....that stiff is back where he belongs.....back on the bench. Two, after a slow start, Rodgers finally started trusting his line again mid game against the Skins, and it showed. I also liked some of the play calling as the game progressed. Actually threw the old fashioned tried and true, simple as can be SLANT pass when defenders were sitting off in coverage. 

Zona's a good all around team, but I think the Packers defense is very underrated in all the expert matchup things I see. Assuming Rodgers doesn't give them short fields all day long and free points on fum6, the cards are gonna have to EARN the points they score. Arizona is gonna have a hard time running the ball, and if Capers has the run stuffed and has guys keeping an eye on the RB out of the backfield, it will be completely on Palmers arm to win this game. And he's a worthy QB, but the way Seattle beat them up week 17, maybe there some doubt lingering there. After a season of almost flawless offensive football, suddenly right when confidence is so important....the Seahawks crushed them. 

And speaking of confidence and pressure, 2-3 weeks ago, I say the pressure is squarely on the backs of the Pack who have struggled mightily pretty much all season. Crazy how ONE game for each respective team can change that(at least in my mind). Palmer might have some doubts, and at a time he's about to play his first playoff game in a decade. At the same time, zona loses a very important player and leader on their defense. Meanwhile, pack o-line get healthy, Rodgers has some faith in his line as last week progressed, and yes the Wash D is weak, but it was nice seeing A-Rod have his game on again. 

Losing Adams hurts. These WR just don't get any frigging separation from defenders, and they are thin enough without their #2 going down. Hopefully Starks and(Christ i can't think of their other RB name) do some thunder and lightning and force Zona to bring an extra guy or two into the box where Rodgers now has some room downfield to make some throws. Randall Cobb MUST stand up and play. Outside of Starks, he's the only real guy on the team that can change the game in a play on speed alone. Get the ball in his hands! Throw it deep and maybe get some PI if they can't connect. Bubble screens, quick slants, wildcat, I wanna see him touch the ball 12-15 times this game. 

EDIT: EDDIE LACY the RB. LOL. 

So in a huge game, I'm gonna take a shot with arguably the best QB in the world in a familiar place(the playoffs) getting a TOUCHDOWN and against a guy who in reality is playing his first playoff game(I think Palmer was KO'ed first play of that game in 2006 right?). 
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Good thoughts in here. Anybody want to add what Luke McCown did against the Panthers in Carolina?
  • 31/38 for 310 yards with a 8.2 average
The line is what it is because the Panthers are overrated and 15-1 due solely to their level of competition.

Seattle suffered through a Superbowl hangover early on and was missing several stars on defense for multiple games not to mention Marshawn Lynch, and getting their TE accumulated to their system. This isn't October anymore and the Seahawks are completely healthy, i'd be very surprised if Carolina won on Sunday

Appreciate the insight LC.  I hope you're right! 
 
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Posted: #58
Good luck Jose Reyes! Let's go Hawks! 

Okay the seahawk game has been discussed ad nauseum. Looking at things, this does look to be the PERFECT spot for Carolina, but like Earth and I think Beginner Boy said....we are guys who have ridden the Seahawks last few years. They have been good to us. Gonna stick with a squad who has been good to me. I got a bad line, and I expect it closes well over +1, but like GB, just want to lock it up and stop overthinking. 

Carolina backers, best of luck. I completely and totally see the allure of them, and regardless of who cashes this weekend, let's just see a good football game where the PLAYERS determine the outcome of the game, and not the zebras who single handedly took Cincinnati out of the picture. BOL to all. 

Denver. Not much to say. Big Ben looks to not be 100% and possibly won't be able to fire deep. No Brown who IMO is the best WR on the planet the last few years. No Williams most likely so some inexperienced backs not only running the ball or catching passes, but more importantly in charge of picking up a VICIOUS Denver pass rush and trying to protect their QB who is beat the F up at the moment. Peyton Manning. Maybe he's old, maybe he's 65% of the guy he was even 2 years ago. But he's fresh. He's still got his brains and his game at the line of scrimmage pre-play. Pitt isn't the best at defending the pass, and manning might be able to carve this team up. 

Denver's defense is mighty. Fantastic at playing the pass. Insane pass rush. I'll give Pitt props for how they came back and beat them last month, not to me the FIRST half of that game was the true representation to what will happen in the future. That second half was insane and one of those momentum games where it just couldn't be stopped. Plus every bounce, every whistle, every single thing in the world went Pitt's way. Can't imagine that happens again. 

GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND THANK U ALL FOR PASSING ALONG YOUR INSIGHT AND THOUGHTS! Pro forum has really stepped up, and I'm proud to be a small cog amongst a really intelligent and good group of people. Doesn't seem to be any skumbags or trolls or touts anywhere in sight. Just some good guys who know the sport and want to help each other make money. As long as I'm on this earth betting football, I will be on here to try to contribute and be a part of the community the best I can to GIVE back whatever I can from all the great information I TAKE on a weekly basis for 5 months a year every year. 

Bol to all. 
 
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Posted: #59
I live in Boston down on the harbor and weather is fine now. They are expecting rain overnight but as Andy said it should be through well before game time. I hit the pats large catching 4 as well as the cards at 6.5 and panthers at 1.5 (though bought a lot of Hawks at 3 solely for middle oops). I have played vert few favs this week but happen to be all over them this week.  Pats line may close at 6 I'm thinking 



 
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Posted: #60
Great stuff this week. Best of luck to everyone this week. Hopefully the games will be good.

My card:

NE -5
CAR -1
ARZ/DEN ML parlay

All chalk.

Touched on NE and CAR earlier. 
.
Really like Denver the more I look at it. Everything lined up great. Manning not only got the time to rest (he was great after the bye this year), but he also gets a bad secondary. The time gave him extra time to watch film too. He may be limited physically, but he's cerebral as they come and the extra time he's had to watch film and diagnose Pittsburgh's blitzes is probably worth a couple points. I'm not expecting much from the Pittsburgh O. They had their day against the Bronco defense earlier in the year. Now Denver is rested and PIT beat to hell. One thing to watch here too is the 3rd string RB on 3rd downs in pass protection vs this Broncos rush. That could be a disaster with Ben hurt back there. Brown is a monumental loss for the offense. 7-9 is a lot to lay with the Broncos O so I went ML.

Not sure about the spread in GB/ARZ but IMO Arizona is athe superior team. Laying 7 to elite QB is usually very tough to do so I went ML there too. I took GB last week big because it was a superb matchup. Aaron Rodgers has been bad all year. I don't expect him or the WR to turn it around when they've been bad for months. Rodgers is 30th out of 34 QB in completion %, 26th in yards per attempt, and 15th in QB rating. His TD/INT still looks good but he's been very pedestrian this year. Adams is a tough loss because Peterson trails every teams' #1 WR no matter where they line up. Which means he'll be all over Cobb so the depth without Adams takes a big hit as he would have been in line for a lot of targets since Peterson has been a stud this year and will blanket Cobb. Cobb had 3 catches for 15 yards in the first meeting. Can't help but cheer for the McCarthy line plunges he'll call all game with Lacy too. I think GB is in tough to score.

GL all. 
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by HoyasSax:

I live in Boston down on the harbor and weather is fine now. They are expecting rain overnight but as Andy said it should be through well before game time. I hit the pats large catching 4 as well as the cards at 6.5 and panthers at 1.5 (though bought a lot of Hawks at 3 solely for middle oops). I have played vert few favs this week but happen to be all over them this week.  Pats line may close at 6 I'm thinking 




 
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Posted: #62
^^great stuff again, Andy. Glad to see u back posting! You were always a boss the years you were a regular. 
 
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Posted: #63
Pouring now and about 20mph wind but weatherman saying it should stop around 1pm.....
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by HoyasSax:

Pouring now and about 20mph wind but weatherman saying it should stop around 1pm.....

 
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Posted: #65
Palmer was playing QB for the Bengals Vs Pitts
That was how he got injured. Bengals was dominating before Palmer got hurt. Kitna came in close to the end of the 1H and Bengals lost the game.
The first and greatest victory is to conquer self
 
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Posted: #66
GL today everyone. Love reading this thread.  Weather is clearing up in Boston now btw 
 
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Posted: #67
Hoya, appreciate the weather updates, man. Looking like its gonna be a nice game and weather not much of a problem! 
 
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Posted: #68
Nice hit on Pats guy 

I really want to take pack +7 here and that juicy ML but can't get myself to do it.

Rolling with the Over, especially GB TT O 20.5.   Thats a great # for Rodgers in a dome, doesn't matter who they are playing IMO.


 
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Posted: #69
The alt spread was also very juicy GB -3.5 +470 
 
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Posted: #70
Saw last Hawk/Ram game mentioned in this thread. But not really a 1 off, Rams have given Seattle trouble last 2 years, despite not having a QB or a semblance of an offense.

Sea 17 Stl 23
Sea 31 Stl 34
Sea 20 Stl 6
Sea 26 Stl 28

The St Louis DL is disruptive obviously, anything else to takeaway from this history, similarity or difference to Carolina?

 
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Posted: #71
Betonline sucks! Betus pays faster than any of them on ther debit card but it cost 20 bucks to make a cash withdraw.
,
 
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Posted: #72
3-0 this week. Looks like most in here won money this weekend.

Looking forward to discussing the Champ games in your thread this week, glyde. Great stuff by all this past week.
 
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Posted: #73
Early leans for me are both games at 3 look about right. Would play both dogs at 3.5 and both favs at 2.5.  Thinking about shutting it down for the year 
 
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Posted: #74
Well. That wasn't fun. That Seahawks/Panthers game is the reason there will never be such thing as a lock in sports betting. (Not saying Seattle should have won or anything like that) Just meaning that anything can happen on any given day. The Panthers played literally a perfect 25 minutes to this game. LITERALLY PERFECT. I could not believe what I was seeing. Props to them, they had great play calling, execution and a little bit of luck. Thats what it takes to beat Seattle and thats what they did.

Down 31-0 I was receving texts from a bunch of people. I told them make sure not to turn the game off, Wilson would bring them back, no doubt about it. Just shows the greatness of Wilson to bring them back and get within 15 yards of pushing all my Sea +3 bets for me. Pounded them in game +27 (lol) +21, +20.5, +19.5, +17.5, +14, +10.5 and +7.5 and obvious ingame MLs upto +850. Still ended up losing money with my +3/ML and Seahawks superbowl props and NFC championship props and such. Just a remarkable day in the guts of the Hawks and Wilson that would have been a story of a lifetime had they come back to win. It wasn't to be. I truly believe if Seattle had 1 more timeout (or Carolina doesn't convert 1 of their 2 third down conversions by a matter of inches) Seahawks comeback to win that game.

Seattle will be back. Address the o-line, and let Lane walk and bring in a better corner and they will be right back next year. I will be rooting for them when my Fins inevitably out of it by December. Congrats Panthers backers, you were on the right side. Just know Sunday is another example why I don't bet against the Seahawks. Down 31-0 against a great team playing perfect at home, and that lead was one timeout or a few inches away from being blown.

Good week glyde. Just ranting so people know I don't run away when my opinion is wrong. Which it was. 
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

3-0 this week. Looks like most in here won money this weekend.

Looking forward to discussing the Champ games in your thread this week, glyde. Great stuff by all this past week.

All chalk moving on, can't say I'm surprised.  You really can't say it every year, but this year I genuinely believe ANY of these 4 teams left can easily win it.   

Great thread this past week, good discussion and picks all around.  Looking fwd to kicking off the Championship round discussion.  
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