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DENVER @ JETS! BIG WRITE-UP: Sometimes ya just gotta swallow hard and pull the trigger on a team.

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Posted: #176

Quote Originally Posted by URZ262:

btw what i mean was that 10 pit wins are a lot more common than both 11 and 9 so when you tease never never never never tease from 3.5 to 9 or 3 to 9, it's basically a mathematical fact that you will lose money but if you tease from less than 3 to more than 7 and anything to over 10 you will win long term no matter who the teams are in the NFL


I know not to tease to 9/9.5 but I was willing to give up that 1/1.5 pts to a dead number like 9 in that spot with the Skins to get over 4 and 7 and of course, a pick six in the final seconds kills it.

 
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Posted: #177
Tough beat Scal,  Never understood guys coming into threads after a bad beat to Laugh, Gloat , I told you so BS...Brings nothing to a site supposedly here to beat the books...
 
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Posted: #178

@Playa -

Doesn't bother me a bit. As long as the time I spent writing something up was worth the trouble.

Here, it was...

Except for a perfect punt and a pick 6 with the ONE guy you do not want handling the ball in that spot (except besides Schaub).

 

Vegas took an absolute bath on this game. To swing 3 points means the ticket count may have been 12 or 15 Denver to 1 Jets.

 
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Posted: #179
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

@Playa -

Doesn't bother me a bit. As long as the time I spent writing something up was worth the trouble.

Here, it was...

Except for a perfect punt and a pick 6 with the ONE guy you do not want handling the ball in that spot (except besides Schaub).

 

Vegas took an absolute bath on this game. To swing 3 points means the ticket count may have been 12 or 15 Denver to 1 Jets.






Thank you once again for your input. Liked the spot for the Jets myself. Once I saw you were on the same side, it was confirmed. Shitty beat but I'm too old to go breaking anything. Looking forward to your next writeup and also your NBA intel. 
 
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Posted: #180
Right call, great situation, can't account for miracle endings like what happened for broncos to cover.....It happens ...keep doing your thing.....
 
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Posted: #181
@t6 @tboon kind words to help seal the wound
 
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Posted: #182
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Well guys, I read all your posts and thanks for the support (good to see ya BB). It'll take me an hour to respond to all of you and I am just too shell shocked at the moment to do so, even 5 hours after the game.

Why?

Well not only did I lose my SU bet +10 on the Jets, but in post #63 I said:

2 units or thereabouts but I have a bunch of Jets in teasers too. About a 3 star play.

4 teasers to be exact. All the legs were hit except for the Jets and one other game.

So the Jets +16.5 hit for me! Good news? Escaping with my life? Well not when you ask me what the final leg in all those teasers was.

It was the Skins of course and I put those bets in early at +3 with Logan Thomas at QB for AZ so all four teasers blow up too at +9.5 with a de javu pick 6 afternoon-cap on the near last play.

Nice day huh...two pick 6's to even take out your SU plays and your teasers to boot...thanks Vegas...

Yes, I will still be here providing write-ups even after days like this.



Great writeups and analysis. You're a class act and will recover fine.
 
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Posted: #183
I'm waiting to double down on your next pick ( in NFL ) 

Just like in the CF this year , you are 1-1  but I'm coming out as a winner ! ( double up after a lose , because I'm believing in your write up )

Thanks for your times (posting)  , just like last year in the NBA season !

 
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Posted: #184
Yes vegas took a bath on this one. The safety would have absolutely saved them but it wasn't called, so not only did they get hammered by the early sharp action, they got hammered by the late last second betters , and the over hit by a half a point in most shops. This was by far the most heavily bet on game if im not mistaken, and vegas did not want that pick 6 by any stretch. I like being on vegas' side , but this time the public got them. 
 
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Posted: #185
it was that one PLAY we all hate to see...Good Job though brother....
 
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Posted: #186

I'm sure a lot of sharps tried to middle that game, and vegas would have gotten middle if that safety had been called, and also a lot of teasers would have hit.  very suspicious play.

I wish they would officiate these games correctly.  there was a jets catch that didn't count either that was annoying, bc they reviewed it and it was definitely a catch. 

 
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Posted: #187
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

I know not to tease to 9/9.5 but I was willing to give up that 1/1.5 pts to a dead number like 9 in that spot with the Skins to get over 4 and 7 and of course, a pick six in the final seconds kills it.

Let's be honest here. ANY tease to a 9.0 or 9.5 is a bad bet. ANY insight that ANY gambler might have that MIGHT make the bet "playable" is nonsense. Teasing is generally a bad proposition, so why make decrease the EV by teasing to the dead number (your words)?

Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
 
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Posted: #188
Scal........was leaning Jets all the way but Geno ....and the Jets secondary pulled me to Denver....and I hate betting public bets but it was the right side for once.....But I love your insight on New York Teams....will always consider your information....PS NBA season is starting soon too....
 
 
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Posted: #189
Quote Originally Posted by talesfromdcrypt:

it was that one PLAY we all hate to see...Good Job though brother....

Is that a young Bill Belichick in your avatar? 
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