DENVER @ JETS! BIG WRITE-UP: Sometimes ya just gotta swallow hard and pull the trigger on a team.

2014 NFL record 2-0

2014 CFB record 1-1

I've given more thought to this game than any game this year in college or the pros.

I'm laying in bed until about an hour ago and I said to myself, "If this number goes up anymore, I have to take it."

It did and folks, fasten your seatbelts: We are going Jets here.

The opening lines were very strange with this one. Some places had them as low as SEVEN and now I'm seeing 10's, 10.5 on Bovada at -115 and 5 Dimes is offering +11 -140. So whatever makes you comfortable, take. But at a minimum, you should get minus 10 at standard juice.

So since it is only 4.5 hours until kickoff, I'm going to have to condense my write-up. So here's some rapid fire points.

1. The line

A line move of 3.5 pts is MAJOR. For the books to open this at 7 in some places blows my mind. Why? 7 is a number with no teaser protection, that is, even in the Jets get inside 7, the Broncos and the Chargers (also opened at -7/-8) will be the biggest teased games of the week BY FAR.

That means, if there is a blowout by Denver (which the public expects), the books are really going to take a beating on straight plays, teasers and of course, parlays.

Now for the books to open this line at 7/7.5/8 and not have the teaser protection absolutely REEKS of the books wanting to take a STRONG position on the Jets to get back the San Diego money and then some on this team.

And I can assure you, the Broncos and the Chargers will be the two biggest public sides BY FAR this week. I don't even need to look at the alleged percentages (and if you do look, Denver is #1 on the front page of this site in terms of public support).

I can pick or fade the Jets on my own merits without line reading but this line and the big movement, all through key numbers, really stands out so it has to be noted.

2. Classic Buy High/Sell Low

Folks, this is not news to a bettor. You have to treat these games like a stock.

So what is the most recent thing you see from the Jets?

A 31-0 blowout where they couldn't score a point and they brought in their backup.

What is the most recent thing you see from the Broncos?

A 41-20 blowout of the 3-0 Cardinals.

So were those games as impressive as they seemed for the victors? No.

Why?

In the San Diego game, I can assure you, the Jets gave up at the end of the second quarter.

Would they have won otherwise? No. But that is not the point. The beating they took really drives this line through the roof.

It was about 100 degrees on the field and the Jets had their bags packed at halftime and wanted out. They were ready to go home and play Denver.

San Diego has a knack for doing this to teams against a very good team and this is key, in that weather. We saw the Super Bowl Champs even go there and lose 31-20, gasping and heaving all over the field in the humidity.

The point. As bad as it looked, and it was BAD, you can't let that ultimately sway your pick and lay the points here. This line is big enough to take the Jets with in a big bounceback spot.

Was the Denver game as impressive as it seemed? No.

Why? The last game they played before that was the comeback heartbreaker rematch vs. the Seahawks in Seattle. That was a huge loss in a game they needed redemption from.

Better yet, they had a bye to stew over the loss, gameplan for the Cardinals and come home and demolish them with a classic Manning airshow.

Better yet, Carson Palmer was out and even better yet, the backup Drew Stanton went down early in the third and Logan Thomas came in and completed exactly ONE PASS the rest of the game. 

Remember this, that game was MUCH closer entering the fourth at 24-20 Denver. The Broncos scored 17 pts against a team without a competent QB to close it out making it look like a blowout. It wasn't! They just feasted on a team that was down to its third string QB on the road and allowed to lose one after a perfect start to the season.

So in summation, the "Recency Effect", that is, having the most recent performance sway you pick, is completely on the Broncos side.

But there win wasn't as impressive after a little digging and the Jets loss wasn't as bad after understanding why things were what they were.

The Knicks have given up 1,000's of times! And the next game they came out guns a blazin'. They gave up FIFTY in a quarter this year to the unbelievably horrid Lakers and won the very next game (and I wrote that Knicks @ Kings game up for the Knicks side when they won 107-99 getting +2). So don't be worried about the give up. Teams do this more than you think and bounce back in a big way.

3. Law ONE

That is the Law Of National Embarrassment. The Jets became one this week. It was only a blowout but it was really the worst loss of any team in terms of competence this year.

And all you have to do this week is stay within a MASSIVE 10/10.5/11 AT HOME. That is a good deal if you ask me. Teams usually WIN THE GAME OUTRIGHT in spots like this.

How do we know? We look to the NBA yet again.

Remember when Lakers lost 142-94 to their little sister the Clippers on March 6, 2014? What did they do the next night? They covered the spread against DENVER :) in the altitude on no rest 134-126 getting 9. Having still not gotten off the snide, what did they do that Sunday?

They beat the Thunder OUTRIGHT, the best in the league at the time, 114-110. And the key? It was at home and they were rested. Coincidently, when I wrote that game up, we were getting 11 there too! We didn't need ANY of the points though.

Teams bounce back off their worst performances, especially in big markets where the media hounds like LA and NY.

So now we have one of the worst in the Jets vs. one of the best in Denver and a huge line at home.

CLASSIC dog backing here folks. Take the Jets

#3. Don't piss Rex off

Let me tell you this about Rex. You don't fu** with this guy. When he goes down, way down, he will run his team into the ground to save face if need be.

This is one of those times.

He has taken an absolute BEATING in the media this week and you could hear all week that he is getting more and more irritated.

Then finally, to take the cake, ex-Jet Braylon Edwards comes out and says the team is in shambles and insinuates it's Rex's fault.

https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/jets/ex-jet-braylon-edwards-rips-rex-ryan-tam-article-1.1970785

Just news on the blotter? Nope. Not for this team with this coach. You don't want to piss Rex off. He is a defensive genius and could get a pop-warner team to play hard for him.

Remember, this is the most player-friendly coach in the league. Almost everyone on the Jets loves this guy (except ex-jet Braylon). With the losses come the firing talk and the Jets respond. They don't want a taskmaster in here and will step up at the precipice of disaster when Rex's job is on the line, and it is. And now he has one of the best coming in to prove he still has this team on his side and he still is a good coach. Not the Jags. Not the Raiders. The Broncos. He'll show his worth through his players who want to keep him.

He will come with the defensive schemes necessary to keep this one close, and that is all we need. We don't even need a win.

While the majority of my play doesn't ride on this, it is a nice little bullet to help me pull the trigger.

#5 Jets off an embarrassing loss

How do they do under Rex and Geno?

Well there haven't been any embarrassing losses this year...until now.

How did they do off embarrassing losses last year? They won every game off it and better, they've done it impressively against some very good teams.

9/29 Lose 38-13 to Titans

Next game - Win 30-28 AT the Falcons (although they were bad last year, this shocked a lot of people as you just didn't beat Matty Ice at home).

10/13 - Lose 19-6 at home vs. Steelers

Next game- Beat the Patriots outright 30-27

10/27 Loss 49-9 to the Bengals in Cincy

Next game- Beat the Saints AT HOME 26-20

12/1 Lose 23-3 AT HOME to Dolphins (in a game I posted

Next game- Beat the Raiders at home 37-27

There is exactly one blowout last year the Jets didn't overcome and that was vs. the Bills in Buffalo where they lost 37-13 and lost to a rock solid Ravens team at the Ravens the following week. The key there? They stayed on the road and were beat up and switching QB's.

Otherwise, doesn't this Cincy loss/Come home and beat the Saints look like this game? Yes! And we get 10/10.5/11!

#6 The Super Bowl

One final point to push this pick over the edge.

When was the last time Denver came to MetLife Stadium.

That's right! The Super Bowl.

Heck, this place has to have some bad vibes doesn't it? And you can't get 'revenge' on a stadium. I'll tell you this, when I pass my ex-gf's house, I don't even want to look at it.

This is the scene of the crime where the Broncos lost it all.

And while the Jets are not Seattle on D and certainly don't have the corners like them, they are still a VERY good D, and have THE BEST front 7 in the entire NFL to pressure Manning just like the Hawks did not all that long ago.

So let the bad vibes of Metlife reign.

Broncos coming east on 11am bodyclock time too and no 100 degree humidity to take out the Jets today. This isn't San Diego.

Too many points on the spread. Too many bullet points above. The Jets keep it close and try to pull this one out.

Take the 10.5 with a little extra juice if you can get it just to keep things comfortable but the Jets will respond in more way than you think today! I'm tempted to sprinkle on this ML as the Jets respond in these spots with Geno and Rex but without corners, the points are much to much to pass up so 10 it is as this line has gone through the roof.

The pick:

JETS +10 over Broncos

Wow I didn't see this pick coming from you Scal. I've been off the Jets since you called them in the first week against the Raiders. Have to seriously look at the Jets to cover +10 today.

Great call on Michigan last night.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbuQ6APGYnQ

BOL my friend

Scal: BOL 

Then you won't make any advancement as a bettor

 Thanks.

I think this is the best game to bet. It's a huge amount of points at home and the against a huge public favorite vs. a team I've followed for the past 26 years. And we are getting 10? I'll take it.

Scal.:

Just wondering -

Why does it take embarrassment and getting pissed off to perform at a better level?  What does that say about Rex and his coaching abilities?  Getting pissed off doesn't win games.  Getting pissed off is embarrassing.

Don't get me wrong.  I like Rex as a comedian, but not as a player-friendly coach nor as a defensive "genius".

Ryan brothers as defensive geniuses? His twin's defenses in Dallas and now with the Saints - pathetic.  Rex's defenses?  No way.

Anyhow, they might cover but what is a moral victory Monday worth?