nice run you are on, youve caught my attention.good work and thoughtful writeup, glad to see my team came thru for you
nice run - Thank you
youve caught my attention - I think it is not the first time "I caught your attention" as in the beginning of this thread you came in bashing me and calling me a fraud by saying "you smell the t(r)out from miles away" but I do not blame you for that as I did come in too strong promising to deliver (which I did) and your reaction was natural, so, let the bygones be bygones.
good work and thoughtful writeup - Thanks again
glad to see my team came thru for you - on Sunday I "sacrificed" my Giants for a winning pick (Arizona) and that was profitable but painful. In this instance you enjoyed twice - winning the pick and seeing your team winning. But, in my name and the name of the rest of this thread faithful - please extend our gratitude to "your" team
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Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:
nice run you are on, youve caught my attention.good work and thoughtful writeup, glad to see my team came thru for you
nice run - Thank you
youve caught my attention - I think it is not the first time "I caught your attention" as in the beginning of this thread you came in bashing me and calling me a fraud by saying "you smell the t(r)out from miles away" but I do not blame you for that as I did come in too strong promising to deliver (which I did) and your reaction was natural, so, let the bygones be bygones.
good work and thoughtful writeup - Thanks again
glad to see my team came thru for you - on Sunday I "sacrificed" my Giants for a winning pick (Arizona) and that was profitable but painful. In this instance you enjoyed twice - winning the pick and seeing your team winning. But, in my name and the name of the rest of this thread faithful - please extend our gratitude to "your" team
I suppose an apology is deserved considering that you've been picking well and that's already helping people regardless. I tend to be skeptical of motives (for obvious reasons in this world) but so far you're sticking to your word. I'm sorry that I said you'd be looking to get hot and profit as a paid tout.
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I suppose an apology is deserved considering that you've been picking well and that's already helping people regardless. I tend to be skeptical of motives (for obvious reasons in this world) but so far you're sticking to your word. I'm sorry that I said you'd be looking to get hot and profit as a paid tout.
The Raiders and Chargers game today is probably the game with most arguments in favor of every possible outcome I had to handicap this season. I can bring arguments in favor of both: the under and the over. I can perfectly prove why the Chargers will cover as well as convince myself and try to convince you why the Raiders are a sure play.
Let's start with under. I mean, fading over is in place as we have two quarterbacks who are playing against themselves and do not need an opposition to not to deliver. Carr? 8 giveaways in last 36 possessions (the Raiders altogether gave the ball away 11 times in that stretch). Herbert? He stopped running and also... almost stopped passing the ball for more than 11 yards long passes. Those two stats alone are good enough indication the game is going way under since the teams will most probably rather run the ball then have aerial exchange of fire. Now add to that Marinelli taking over as the Raiders interim defensive coordinator and the effort the defensive players will put in order to prove the reason for the Raiders defensive flaws was not theirs. And, do not mind injured players not playing as the replacements have the best chance to prove themselves right here and right now. Same goes for the Chargers that will slow the game down and will focus on defensive scoring continuing a sudden resurrection in that department. Although the Chargers didn't generate much takeaways for longer than this season - they did have 5 interceptions in their past 4 games while three of them happened in last Sunday's win against the Falcons. True. They will be missing some key players on defense but I can argue that it will produce bigger effort and the urge of continuation of last week's effort (Sunday's). The last and the most effective argument seems to be the reverse line movement on totals seeing a 3 point and a half drop on an originally released 55 points totals line despite the public money sitting strong on over.
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The Raiders and Chargers game today is probably the game with most arguments in favor of every possible outcome I had to handicap this season. I can bring arguments in favor of both: the under and the over. I can perfectly prove why the Chargers will cover as well as convince myself and try to convince you why the Raiders are a sure play.
Let's start with under. I mean, fading over is in place as we have two quarterbacks who are playing against themselves and do not need an opposition to not to deliver. Carr? 8 giveaways in last 36 possessions (the Raiders altogether gave the ball away 11 times in that stretch). Herbert? He stopped running and also... almost stopped passing the ball for more than 11 yards long passes. Those two stats alone are good enough indication the game is going way under since the teams will most probably rather run the ball then have aerial exchange of fire. Now add to that Marinelli taking over as the Raiders interim defensive coordinator and the effort the defensive players will put in order to prove the reason for the Raiders defensive flaws was not theirs. And, do not mind injured players not playing as the replacements have the best chance to prove themselves right here and right now. Same goes for the Chargers that will slow the game down and will focus on defensive scoring continuing a sudden resurrection in that department. Although the Chargers didn't generate much takeaways for longer than this season - they did have 5 interceptions in their past 4 games while three of them happened in last Sunday's win against the Falcons. True. They will be missing some key players on defense but I can argue that it will produce bigger effort and the urge of continuation of last week's effort (Sunday's). The last and the most effective argument seems to be the reverse line movement on totals seeing a 3 point and a half drop on an originally released 55 points totals line despite the public money sitting strong on over.
Now, let's see what we have in our Over argument sac. Do I need even repeat myself? Just mirror the written above. we gonna get over cause those two teams are where they are struggling and underperforming because of their defenses. The Raiders can't fix defense in 3 days an the Chargers are good defensively only against the teams that suck offensively. But, the Raiders can put some points on the board and with thinned defensive roster the Chargers will not be able to counterpart the Raiders offense and Carr's desire to prove himself again in the eyes of Gruden and the team by performing up to his abilities. Besides, whenever the line is 51.5 it is usually an indicator the under is invited since there is that hook over 51 points which is arguably the compass of the totals borderline. There are few more smaller arguments as the entertaining value and the need to compete with Monday Night game in the way it has attracted millions of viewers and elevated NFL into a savior of the sports under COVI-19.
Now, let's see why the Chargers should walk away with the cover. This is easy. All three of their losses to AFC West opponents this season were in the final play. The Chargers lost to Kansas City in overtime on Butker's 58-yard field goal, to the Broncos on Lock's TD pass to Hamler and to the Raiders when Herbert's game winning TD pass to Donald Parham was overturned by replay. So, they aren't as bad as we perceive them and they will finally get a break on their side. I can go on and showing why the Raiders have to be faded and so on but I wouldn't want to tire you.
Now, why will the Raiders cover? First of all they have a motivational factor as big as a two deck bus in London England. They still have a shot at the playoff spot. Their coaching staff has shown how far they are willing to go to get the initially set goals of making the postseason by firing the defensive coordinator this late in the season which is not a regular behavior in the NFL. They have in Carr arguably one of the gifted quarterbacks in a league and all he needs is not overdoing and playing his usual. The Chargers - on the other hand - have nothing to fight for and they are just trying to get thru just another empty season for the team with scarce fun base. Especially when compared to the Raiders. In other words - there is not even a question who will have the upper hand here but just by how much.
Here is the point we go back to the Chargers covering since despite the great majority of money being on the Raiders to win SU and also cover -3.5 line -that line hasn't moved an inch.
Over 51.5
1
Now, let's see what we have in our Over argument sac. Do I need even repeat myself? Just mirror the written above. we gonna get over cause those two teams are where they are struggling and underperforming because of their defenses. The Raiders can't fix defense in 3 days an the Chargers are good defensively only against the teams that suck offensively. But, the Raiders can put some points on the board and with thinned defensive roster the Chargers will not be able to counterpart the Raiders offense and Carr's desire to prove himself again in the eyes of Gruden and the team by performing up to his abilities. Besides, whenever the line is 51.5 it is usually an indicator the under is invited since there is that hook over 51 points which is arguably the compass of the totals borderline. There are few more smaller arguments as the entertaining value and the need to compete with Monday Night game in the way it has attracted millions of viewers and elevated NFL into a savior of the sports under COVI-19.
Now, let's see why the Chargers should walk away with the cover. This is easy. All three of their losses to AFC West opponents this season were in the final play. The Chargers lost to Kansas City in overtime on Butker's 58-yard field goal, to the Broncos on Lock's TD pass to Hamler and to the Raiders when Herbert's game winning TD pass to Donald Parham was overturned by replay. So, they aren't as bad as we perceive them and they will finally get a break on their side. I can go on and showing why the Raiders have to be faded and so on but I wouldn't want to tire you.
Now, why will the Raiders cover? First of all they have a motivational factor as big as a two deck bus in London England. They still have a shot at the playoff spot. Their coaching staff has shown how far they are willing to go to get the initially set goals of making the postseason by firing the defensive coordinator this late in the season which is not a regular behavior in the NFL. They have in Carr arguably one of the gifted quarterbacks in a league and all he needs is not overdoing and playing his usual. The Chargers - on the other hand - have nothing to fight for and they are just trying to get thru just another empty season for the team with scarce fun base. Especially when compared to the Raiders. In other words - there is not even a question who will have the upper hand here but just by how much.
Here is the point we go back to the Chargers covering since despite the great majority of money being on the Raiders to win SU and also cover -3.5 line -that line hasn't moved an inch.
You didn't miss anything. Every game stands on it's own. Making me a winner in one or two or three or four or even five games in a row doesn't guarantee I will win the right next one.
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@Bee23
You didn't miss anything. Every game stands on it's own. Making me a winner in one or two or three or four or even five games in a row doesn't guarantee I will win the right next one.
Your knowledge of football and your capping skills are unique indeed my "mr relax" friend. The holiday gifts pouring from you are incredibly valuable and well appreciated! Thanks a million 14allall41!
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Your knowledge of football and your capping skills are unique indeed my "mr relax" friend. The holiday gifts pouring from you are incredibly valuable and well appreciated! Thanks a million 14allall41!
1441, keep up the good work
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