When I see something valuable from a betting perspective - it doesn't matter to me as long as it is not animals pitted against each other - I'm on it. The time will show if there will be Bowl games before the playoffs worth risking money
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@Kbui559
Merry Xmas.
When I see something valuable from a betting perspective - it doesn't matter to me as long as it is not animals pitted against each other - I'm on it. The time will show if there will be Bowl games before the playoffs worth risking money
Yes. There are sites, private and public that do supply that info. Off course we all know the public ones and they cover certain number of the books and we can never know how reliable the information displayed there is. And there are dedicated sites that are at certain cost claiming to be more accurate with the regard of that info. They claim to include info from various parts of the world and time zones and one can not just go there and get in. You got to have a connection and recommendation. I have neither and my info relies strictly on publicly available sites.
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@melossinglet
Thanks for the kind words.
Yes. There are sites, private and public that do supply that info. Off course we all know the public ones and they cover certain number of the books and we can never know how reliable the information displayed there is. And there are dedicated sites that are at certain cost claiming to be more accurate with the regard of that info. They claim to include info from various parts of the world and time zones and one can not just go there and get in. You got to have a connection and recommendation. I have neither and my info relies strictly on publicly available sites.
Wouldn't be so sure. Brees is at the time of his career Payton Manning was when he won his last Super Bowl. I'm not saying that the Saints - Chiefs will both be in a SB - but, that seems to be something hard to rule out.
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@Battalion74
Wouldn't be so sure. Brees is at the time of his career Payton Manning was when he won his last Super Bowl. I'm not saying that the Saints - Chiefs will both be in a SB - but, that seems to be something hard to rule out.
Now about what went yesterday and why I would like to embrace that loss and suggest you try too in order to sharpen our handicapping skills (saying it in most humble and modest fashion I can). This game has really a list of dos and don't dos for the future unlike the last loss (Saints +2.5 against the Chiefs)
The obvious factors I didn't take in my handicapping process:
1. Xmas afternoon game where all happens to full satisfaction of the public (great majority of) and Vegas is only helping to make it easier. (Sounds funny, but supported by facts - dropping line from -7 yo -6.5 and the totals from 53 to 50.5 was indeed RLM but in favor of the public unaware of that term altogether).
Something we have to consider in a year from now at the similar circumstances. Note taken.
2. the sign for the Saints covering was there and I used that vehicle once before here to get a win: team totals showed clearly the Saints were to cover. 29.5 against 20.5) But, I managed to ignore captive to my own conception of the contrarianism.
3. I disregarded the signs from the last Saints' loss clearly indicating Brees and the team were getting so much better and into the right gear and Minnesota was just a nuisance on the way to may be a SB.
4. Totals. Come on. I could not have been more wrong than that pick. It almost hit the over for the whole game in the first half. Again. I followed the line movement I should not have because it was a Xmas gift to public that anyway would lay that money down in coming games and weeks.
So, although hindsight is funny in any circumstance with regard to sports betting - it is a valuable tool when it comes to analyze my own picks
1
Now about what went yesterday and why I would like to embrace that loss and suggest you try too in order to sharpen our handicapping skills (saying it in most humble and modest fashion I can). This game has really a list of dos and don't dos for the future unlike the last loss (Saints +2.5 against the Chiefs)
The obvious factors I didn't take in my handicapping process:
1. Xmas afternoon game where all happens to full satisfaction of the public (great majority of) and Vegas is only helping to make it easier. (Sounds funny, but supported by facts - dropping line from -7 yo -6.5 and the totals from 53 to 50.5 was indeed RLM but in favor of the public unaware of that term altogether).
Something we have to consider in a year from now at the similar circumstances. Note taken.
2. the sign for the Saints covering was there and I used that vehicle once before here to get a win: team totals showed clearly the Saints were to cover. 29.5 against 20.5) But, I managed to ignore captive to my own conception of the contrarianism.
3. I disregarded the signs from the last Saints' loss clearly indicating Brees and the team were getting so much better and into the right gear and Minnesota was just a nuisance on the way to may be a SB.
4. Totals. Come on. I could not have been more wrong than that pick. It almost hit the over for the whole game in the first half. Again. I followed the line movement I should not have because it was a Xmas gift to public that anyway would lay that money down in coming games and weeks.
So, although hindsight is funny in any circumstance with regard to sports betting - it is a valuable tool when it comes to analyze my own picks
I was on the under at 51 and then woke up in the morning and it dropped to 50, in this business most times when you get those movements correct in your favor EV you win many more than you lose. No one could possibly forsee that the Saints alone would hit the total on their own, that was just pathetic defense on both sides.. Which is why I put futures on all the other top contenders to win the NFC with GB, SEA and TB and didn't put a cent on Saints.. Kamara is just keeping brees career afloat for the time being and they've played better defense this year, until lately. I don't trust them and my money backs that going forward. Think Green Bay will be in the Super Bowl this year, and im a Bears fan.
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I was on the under at 51 and then woke up in the morning and it dropped to 50, in this business most times when you get those movements correct in your favor EV you win many more than you lose. No one could possibly forsee that the Saints alone would hit the total on their own, that was just pathetic defense on both sides.. Which is why I put futures on all the other top contenders to win the NFC with GB, SEA and TB and didn't put a cent on Saints.. Kamara is just keeping brees career afloat for the time being and they've played better defense this year, until lately. I don't trust them and my money backs that going forward. Think Green Bay will be in the Super Bowl this year, and im a Bears fan.
Vegas "prepare" Christmas gift since past week 15 (I'm sure you were aware of it) since most of high loaded public sides covers, then every capper talks about how easy it was to bet on NFL games, on Christmas dinner, with family and friends.
Now, we have new bettors in the game, that's why Vegas gives new bettors today's public favorite "New Orleans / OVER", along with 2 of 3 of tomorrow games (thinking about Tampa Bay and Miami) just to recover all that money (+interests) on Sunday/Monday games, with unreal covers for NY Jets, Jacksonville, Atlanta, Carolina, Denver, NY Giants and New England.
That's why I stay away of Christmas game and also i'll stay away of tomorrow games. (maybe i'll drop a penny on 2nd halves of San Francisco and Miami/Vegas UNDER, only if the numbers look right).
Note: sorry for my poor english grammar/redaction, I'm not a native english speaker.
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@14allall41
Vegas "prepare" Christmas gift since past week 15 (I'm sure you were aware of it) since most of high loaded public sides covers, then every capper talks about how easy it was to bet on NFL games, on Christmas dinner, with family and friends.
Now, we have new bettors in the game, that's why Vegas gives new bettors today's public favorite "New Orleans / OVER", along with 2 of 3 of tomorrow games (thinking about Tampa Bay and Miami) just to recover all that money (+interests) on Sunday/Monday games, with unreal covers for NY Jets, Jacksonville, Atlanta, Carolina, Denver, NY Giants and New England.
That's why I stay away of Christmas game and also i'll stay away of tomorrow games. (maybe i'll drop a penny on 2nd halves of San Francisco and Miami/Vegas UNDER, only if the numbers look right).
Note: sorry for my poor english grammar/redaction, I'm not a native english speaker.
You sure fooled me with that "banned" avatar. That is the reason I didn't respond to your previous comments thinking you can't answer me anyway....
What is your native language? If your name means Zoro Way then I know
Sure your way of thinking is not strange to me as a fellow contrarian. You're here even earlier than the other great contrarians - so, hats off on understanding the game
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@zOrO-GZA
You sure fooled me with that "banned" avatar. That is the reason I didn't respond to your previous comments thinking you can't answer me anyway....
What is your native language? If your name means Zoro Way then I know
Sure your way of thinking is not strange to me as a fellow contrarian. You're here even earlier than the other great contrarians - so, hats off on understanding the game
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