Divisional Round

Thought I'd dust off the keyboard and throw out some thoughts on a couple games I really like:

LA Rams @ Tampa Bay

Everything lines up here for the Rams. It's a good spot and a great matchup. The Bucs are an excellent team and have the GOAT at QB, so they will be a tough out for sure, but I think top to bottom the Rams are the better football team.

Defensively, the Bucs have really slipped on the DL this year. Vita Vea is still a stud, but Suh is really showing his age and Shaq Barrett and JPP have been beat up all season and are not the same players right now. Tampa is a stunning 25th in PFF pass rush grade this season.

An already blitz-happy team with Bowles as DC has been forced to blitz even more this season, a whooping 41% of dropbacks, to try to get pressure. That's something that works in the Rams favor here as Stafford has been incredible vs the blitz this season completing 75% of his passes for 9.4 YPA with 14 TD and just 1 INT. Much of that work vs the blitz comes from his telepathic link with Cooper Kupp. I look for Kupp to have a monster game. He lines up in the slot 66% of the time and will be matched up with Sean Murphy-Bunting, who is by far the worst player in the Bucs secondary. Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean are very good CBs but they almost never play in the slot so the Rams best player gets the Bucs worst player. And there will be plenty of blitzes where Kupp is the "hot read" left 1-on-1 as the Bucs divert guys from coverage to blitz. He could catch 14 balls in this game.

There are other things to like as well. The Rams OL is elite, and I think a key is they have loads of experience. It's one thing to line up and block a guy, but those vets will be much more comfortable in protection schemes and recognizing who to pick up and who to pass off when the Bucs do blitz, unlike the garbage Panthers and Jets OL the Bucs finished the season eating for lunch. There shouldn't be many missed assignments with an OL that is this good and this experienced. I also think while Cam Akers may not register a blip with the statheads, he brings a real tangible physical and explosive element that was readily apparent to anyone who watched the Arizona game. The Rams can now legitimately run the ball when they need to, something you couldn't say earlier in the year when Henderson and Michel were your lead dogs. OBJ is also starting to fit into and understand the scheme better, and he looks more comfortable by the week. The Rams offensively are getting healthy and coming together at just the right time.

On the other side, of course, is Brady. The Bucs offense looks absolutely prolific if you look at the season long advanced stats. But there are a few things working against them. The losses of Godwin and Brown have yet to be felt in a full game. And that's mostly a product of game state and opponent. The Bucs have played total trash teams since those guys went out and have been leading a majority of the time. The Rams are by far the best team Tampa will have played without those guys and I have a feeling we see Brady struggle a bit. If you look past the 31-0 lead last week against a truly inept Eagles defensive coordinator, you saw that the chemistry and timing on routes with the replacements at WR just wasn't there.

That timing is going to be important in this game as I think Brady is going to be under pressure, and his reliable outlets in pressure spots are going to be Gio Bernard and Tyler Johnson instead of Godwin and Brown. The Bucs have a great OL but the injuries to Wirfs and Jensen are a real worry. I think both play but both won't be 100% at all. Don't forget Josh Wells, Wirfs backup at RT, also left the game last week. The Rams pass rush with Von Miller is elite. On passing downs they now have 4 great players on the field. The Rams have the exact recipe for flustering Brady. Get pressure from all along the DL with 4 and have good coverage in the back. When Brady is pressured in this game then you'll see how big the Godwin and Brown losses really are when he can't get the ball out quick. Something to watch too is when he's pressured or gets frustrated early, he often lets it get to him and starts feeling fake pressure and ducking/turtling. The Saints used a great DL to get him twice this year. If the Rams are smart, I think they should put Ramsey on Gronk on 3rd downs. Brady will be looking for his reliable safety valve Gronk every 3rd down. Put your best player on him and take that outlet away.

To sum up, I think the Rams offense is coming together at exactly the right time, and their defense is going to be able to get some stops in this game. Tampa has skated by beating some bad teams and warts that are there have not yet been exposed. And quite honestly, the Rams are the more talented team as long as Stafford avoids the boneheaded pick. Rams +3 -115 is still out there. I think it comes off and closes lower.

San Francisco @ Green Bay

The 49ers have the look and background statistical profile of an elite team. Their top end players are some of the best in the league. Most of their metrics are off the charts and suggest they are a real threat. But I love the Packers in this game. I think there are several factors that work against SF here and they will all compound, leading to a comfortable GB win.

Let's start with the spot. I've been following the NFL for a long time and can't remember a spot as bad as this. Playoff games are hard as hell. It is a total physical and emotional tax the entire week just be 100% focused and prepared for the game. This is one of the reasons teams off the bye in the NFL have such an advantage...their opponent had to just play a freaking playoff game the week before and they sat at home resting. But SF has just played TWO GRUELING playoff games in a row. They needed to claw back from 17 down just to make the playoffs in an emotional win in W18. Then emotional win in DAL last week. Both on the road. This is not only their third straight road game that they have to "get up" for a great team, but it's their 4th road game in 5 weeks. It's their bloody 6th road game in 8 weeks! That is absolutely insane. They can't have much left in the tank. It's almost impossible in this sport for GB not to have a massive physical and emotional "freshness" edge here.

And I think we saw SF start to run out of gas in the 2nd half last week. They were leaking oil bad. Dallas would have won that game had it lasted another 30 seconds. Now they have key injuries. Jimmy now has a nagging shoulder injury to go with a nagging thumb. I think Warner and Bosa play but neither will be close to 100%. Most guys I've seen that play the week after concussions just play bad. It's a traumatic brain injury that effects your entire mind and body. How can you be 100% just 6 days after a traumatic brain injury? This is a team running entirely on fumes. They also lose a day and have to travel again and play this game on a short week. I think the cold is a real disadvantage too. It's one of those compounding effects I talked about earlier. Short week, team running on fumes, injuries, the cold just adds to all of this.

On the other side, the Packers gas tank reads FULL. This team is fully rested and by far the healthiest they have been all season. It is quite remarkable that they got the #1 seed considering the injuries they had this year. Rodgers covid, Jones beat up, Cobb missed games, Baktiari, Alexander, Z. Smith, the OL was a total mess. But now off the bye they are shaping up to get a windfall of players back. Cobb is going to play. He's missed 8 games and is Rodgers' main man on 3rd downs and when blitzed. He's a huge addition. Baktiari is back. He's arguably the best LT in the league and he played 27 snaps all season! Z'darius Smith looks to be back. Again, a premier player at a premier position who has played under 30 snaps the entire season. Alexander looks back at CB. I have believed for a long time that CB is the 2nd most important position in football and the Packers are adding a Top 3 player at that position that has played 3.5 games all year. Depth players like Mercilus look to return. Billy Turner at RT. Everyone is coming back.

The narrative around GB seems to be that they aren't as good as last year. And I think a lot of that has simply been these injuries. Baktiari and Smith have played under 30 snaps all year. Alexander 3.5 games. These are some of the best players at their positions in the entire league. They are 3 of GB's best 5 players. Even if they play at 75-80% of their ceiling, think about how massive it is to get these guys back. It would be the greatest trade deadline in sports history if a team added a Top 3 LT, Top 3 CB, and Top 10 DE. That is exactly what GB is doing this week. Take away 3 of any team's 5 best players and of course they aren't going to be as good the next year.

I do think GB has played conservative this year for sure and that has hurt their numbers, point differential, EPA, etc. But I'm a dudes guy. I value PFF grading more than EPA, DVOA, etc. The Packers have the third best graded defense this season. Their pass rush grade is #2 and their coverage grade is #7, and again their best players on each of those units have barely played. I think playing conservative has really hurt their EPA, DVOA, advanced numbers. People looking at those won't be impressed by the Packers defense. But I think player for player they are very, very talented.

The narrative around this game is that SF is going to run all over them. It's all everyone can talk about. I do think they can have some success but in the modern NFL if your #1 argument for supporting a team is that they will be able to run the ball then you are in trouble. Passing matters infinitely more than running. What if the Niners get down? That's when I think they are screwed. Jimmy G is a turd in my opinion. I think he's the ultimate front runner. Throwing to wide open receivers in an elite scheme in perfect game state conditions. When the pressure is on to make throws he pukes all over himself. He's the worst graded QB under pressure in the entire league. His pressure stats are abominable. For the season per PFF he has just 10 big time throws...against 25 turnover worthy plays...LOL he is complete TRASH. He's going to need to make throws in this game in the cold under pressure with a bad thumb and shoulder. The Packers defense has to be salivating.

I think Rodgers is in for a big game too. As mentioned, I don't think Bosa and Warner will be near 100% but the concern is SF is flat bad at CB. And to beat Rodgers you NEED to make him hold the ball. The chemistry with his receivers and his accuracy are too good right now. If the Packers WR get open quick on bad CB then who cares who SF has rushing passer on the DL. The ball will be gone in 2 seconds. Moseley is a solid CB for SF. Josh Norman and K'Waun Williams stink. Their depth CBs Lenoir and Thomas are horrific. I look for quick easy throws here as the route running and precision passing eats up these bums in the SF secondary all game long.

The Packers are the most underrated, disrespected team in the league right now. SF is a team I fully expect to run out of gas and warts at QB and CB to be ripped off in this game. I do think the line comes down as we see SF money. Earlier in the week I thought we might get a 4 but not sure now. Maybe closes 4.5/5. I'll wait this one out for a bit but anything under a TD is good as I believe the 49ers are going to get pasted.

Andy!!! Absolutely my favorite play of the weekend. On them big RAMS 1H and FG.

Great to see an artist return to its true canvas, the covers forum. 

Could not provide a better argument for GB, you nailed it. You win the Pulitzer prize for best write-up on a game

Gonna disagree with you a bit on the other game. On the O-line, Jensen will be fine, Wells too, and with Cappa, Marpet, Donavon Smith, and Aaron Stinnie, think they'll be ok. Wirfs, RT, probably won't play but looking like the ol pro LT Andrew Whitworth may not either, wash, if that's the case. JPP on the back end would agree, but Barrett can still get after the QB, 10 sacks and missed a couple games. Lavonte David is back, coupled with Devin White, Vita Vea, Suh, and Gholston, they're a tuff nut to crack running the ball. And they bring in rookie Joe Tryon Shoyinka, fast and athletic and a tuff matchup when he's in, 4 sacks. Bucs are going to need Fournette, really believe he'll play this week, Arians sat him to get him to 100 percent knowing they didn't need him against Philly. Cam Akers back for the Rams, he's a good back with a ton of upside. Ultimately for me it's Brady vs Stafford, who'll make more big plays and more importantly who'll make the critical mistake. Stafford led the league in those, pix that is, 17, tied with one Trevor Lawrence, ugh. This game will be decided late in the 4th quarter, Stafford has Kupp, but Brady has Evans and Gronk. In one last drive to win a game, like many times before, I'll put my money on Brady. Great job on all your points and good luck to you!

On the Niners. It didn’t stop the Giants from winning it all in the same position, road game after road game after road game.

We’ve seen this happen time and time again where the bye team has lost to the hot team. Not buying it.

As for Bosa (your comment quoted below) do you have access to his medical record on severity of the concussion?  traumatic brain injury? Seriously? Lol dude you act like he was in a life threatening car accident and got his head smashed through the windshield.

“How can you be 100% just 6 days after a traumatic brain injury?”

Good luck though! Packers should win this game, I don’t think it will be easy. 

@ActionMagnet

 This is the literal definition of a concussion from the CDC:

"A concussion is a type of traumatic brain injury—or TBI—caused by a bump, blow, or jolt to the head or by a hit to the body that causes the head and brain to move rapidly back and forth."

This seems quite important for a football player as well:

"Symptoms may include headache, confusion, lack of coordination, memory loss, nausea, vomiting, dizziness, ringing in the ears, sleepiness, and excessive fatigue."

I'm not a doctor. I don't have any data to prove this, but anecdotally I have seen many NFL players come back the week after a concussion and most seem off and play less than 100% even though they are cleared be neurologists. It seems they are much better to me the next week or if they have missed a game. We'll see. Bosa could just be a freak.

Good post. Very fair points. 

The Bucs still do have a lot of talent. I just feel they are down a bit in certain areas and the Rams matchup well. Though there's no quicker way to the poor house than betting against Tom Brady in the playoffs.

Kinda also feel like intangibly it's the Rams time. They brought in guys like Stafford, OBJ, Von Miller to win this exact game. Go get it.

I mean not all concussions are treated equally. I don’t know how severe his was, there are grades, mild, moderate or severe. Today he had his helmet on and was a participant in practice. We shall see like you said.

I think you’re discounting the Niners weapons on offense and their #1 scoring efficiency in the red zone vs a GB red zone D that is in the bottom 5 of the NFL. Look what the Browns with a trash Baker did 3 weeks ago- rushed for nearly 200 yards with a chance to steal a game GB had everything to play for + 4 Baker picks.

The nucleus of the Niner core is young and in prime. I don’t see fatigue being an issue. They got their SB hearts broken a few years ago, it’s go time.  DeBo, Kittle, Aiyuk, Mitchell, Jennings, Juice - I beg u to find a more potent and talented set of skill guys in the NFL.

Youre also discounting the Niner secondary. Norman and Lenoire started the early season game vs GB and got lit up. GB still needed a miracle to win that game in the end.

Mosley is starting now alongside Ambry Thomas who has come a along way. He picked off Stafford in OT to seal the win.

They shut down CeeDee Lamb, Cooper, Wilson and the #1 offense by DVOA last week. Jimmie Ward and Tartt are rock solid in the secondary.

The only reason Dallas was in that game late was Jimmy G, period. Yes he scares the shit out of me.

He missed a wide open Aiyuk for a TD and then threw a pick, giving Dallas the ball inside Niners 30, resulted in a TD. That’s a 14 point swing.

Finally- he screwed up the snap on the 4th and 1 sneak that should’ve ended the game. Niners sacked Dak 5 times. They couldn’t move the ball. 

If Jimmy can limit his turnovers to 1 or less, I give them a great shot. Otherwise GB will win if he sh1ts the bed, he’s capable. He reminds me of Eli Manning a lot. Is immune to bad turnovers, will drive down the field when least expected for a clutch TD.

Quick and to the point.....Packers win SU...but Niners cover...
this is going to be a great and close game....Might go to Overtime...

Stafford has 1 playoff win

Brady has 40

Absolutely awesome write ups Andy!!! Great to have you back and  let’s get this!!!!!!!

Excellent work ...Fantastic read 

Sweep your board Fam 

I will say the Bucs defense does turn way up in the playoffs 

So glad to see you back in the forum Andy.  Thanks again for your in-depth analysis!

Great writeups!  Good to see you around Andarmac.

GL

great post 

BOL 

This is the covers that I remember.

Great write-ups and respectful debate.

Cheers

Must be the postseason, Andarmac is around.  Good to see you.  I got this bookmarked to come back to read later tonight when I got more time.  

@andarmac99

 Awesome info and write up on the Rams game. I have already accounted Stafford´s boneheaded picks, as a worst case scenario. They will play catch up and be obligated to score more TDs. I have them winning, but it will be nice to have that +3. GL