Divisional Round Plays

Kansas City -8.5 5 unit play

This is my biggest play of the NFL season so far. Last week I won my biggest up to that point with the Cowboys 4 units, while I also had 3 units on the 9ers, losing then 2 units each with the Bills and the Chargers and another on the Chargers/Jags Under (I rarely play totals I thought the 2 QBs being in their first playoff game would lead to some jitters and cageyness but  anyway...). I typically only bet 1-2 units regular season.

All memories of the Charger collapse will be washed away with this play. There are a few nice angles both in stats and other factors. First of all, it's going to be much harder to win on the road than it was at home. The Jags already lost by 10 in Arrowhead and it should have been more. KC sliced their defense up only to have a first possession that looked like a TD drive end in a fumble in the red zone, and a midfield INT that set up the jags last TD when they were down 17 and never really looking like being in the game despite KC not scoring in the 4th quarter.

When Brady was the best QB in the NFL and Mahomes was the new guy looking like his eventual successor it took him a good few tries before he was able to advance past the Pats. And that KC team who still had Hill was better than this Jaguars team. If TL manages to beat Mahomes in a playoff game, it's not going to be this year on the road when the Chiefs have an extra week of rest and the Jags just completed a miracle comeback.

another angle I like is the 'student vs master' one with Pederson the former Reid assistant and QB. In these situations the understudy has more often than not lost to his old boss. Belichek was the best at it, his assistants couldn't beat him.

This team is the new 'bar' that all upstart teams have to reach for. Reid is a lot different than Belichek and Mahomes a much different QB to Brady, but this team sets the standard. They are NOT anything like the LA CHargers, despite only beating them by 3 each time this year, this team has that winning pedigree and winning habits instilled in them that LA doesn't have and if there is an early lead they won't blow it because they can actually run the ball a little bit. They don't screw up in the red zone because they have the best red zone weapon in the NFL in Kelce whereas the Chargers TEs were just guys.

Just like the Pats had with Gronk. So obviously I'm drawing parallels to the Pats here quite a bit. Well, just like any Pats haters or doubters ended up with egg on their face more often than not I think going against this Chiefs team here is not gonna work out good.

It's very easy to forget how much of an advantage the week off is, especially since neither top seed advanced last season, the Packers losing in the first game (To that guy Brady). But back when there was 2 bye week teams each conference you generally always ended up in profit going with those vs the lower seeds who had to play the week before and then go on the road.

I actually expect both top seeds to cover on Saturday but I think this is the most solid one of the two just because Hurts has not won a playoff game yet while Mahomes has won championships. I'll get into some stats in a bit.

Excellent.  Well done,  except both teams wont cover.  That would be poor lines making.  Otherwise dead nuts on !!

Of the Jags 8 losses, 6 were away from Duval County or whatever it's called. The road games they won were against the Chargers (who we know are a bunch of clowns), the Jets, the Titans and the Texans. All those teams have flawed offenses.

In the games they lost, their defense got shredded in some way. There were games were Matt Ryan or Carson Wentz shredded them through the air or games where Saquon Barkley ran all over them. The Chiefs ran all over them too. As did the Eagles who put up 210 rushing and 400 yards total. The Chiefs put up 486. Guess what when a team hits you for almost 500 yards you are not getting stops at all. Colts put up 434. Giants 436. Lions 437. You get the idea. They are 30th in yards allowed in the NFL.

So how did they get here? They played the worst division in the NFL, they got lucky last week, the Chargers had a meltdown and the most accurate kicker in the NFL all year missed a FG he would usually make. But, you have to give them credit for their 2nd half bounce back esp TL.

And that's where the Jags have shined in all their wins - the 2nd half of games. BUT... every win but one came against teams who were bad in the 2nd half. They have only one win vs a team that is in the top half of the NFL in 2nd half scoring - Dallas (who happens to be top in that stat). They won that game in OT on a pick6. Other than that they lost to every team in the top 17 in 2nd half scoring including washington the 17th ranked. Baltimore the 23rd ranked team they beat by a point. Beat the 24th ranked Jets, 25th ranked COlts (1 of 2) 26th ranked Texans (1 of 2) 28th CHargers (2 of 2), and Tennessee 32nd ranked (2 of 2)

KC is 3rd in 2nd half scoring tied with Detroit (who never punted vs Jax). THe giants 8th in that stat beat the Jags as did 15th Philadelphia. This stat jumped out at me as a key to beating Jax after last week's Charger game, and KC is on that top tier that they dont do well against. Oh, and they have the number 1 passing game overall, number 1 in total yards, number 1 in points per game, number one in TDs per game, number one in first downs per game.

Defensively they are top 10 in yards allowed and they have only allowed 30 points twice (won both those games).

Only turnovers could stop this KC team from putting up around 40 points. They had only 27 in the last game vs the Jags because of turnovers but otherwise they are likely to score 40 like the Lions did. The Cowboys had 34 because Dak turned it over a lot.

TL caught the turnover bug (which he had struggled with before this season) last week and even though he turned it around, I feel like it's more likely he makes mistakes here on the road than Mahomes. I know you could say this about so many games but unless they get turnovers the Jags will not keep within 10 points of this KC team.

I didn't even mention the Andy Reid bye week stats because everyone knows that. But I just think anyone thinking that last week's miracle was the start of a magical run - not gonna happen. They played the perennial also rans who have underachieved since forever - since Rivers was there. Now they play the perennial contenders. A team who got knocked out as the top seed last year when they gave away a big halftime lead to the Bengals - you can be sure the 2nd half is a focus for this team after that and what Jax did last week and in all their wins.

But prior to that game last year, try and remember what Mahomes has done in the 2nd half of playoff games. There was games where they were losing at halftime and they still came back and covered big spreads. They were down 24-0 one year to the Texans and won 51-31. And that Texans team had Hopkins and Deshaun Watson. But what they also had was a similarly bad 28th ranked defense (jags are 23rd, think i might have put 30th by accident in above post) in yards per game - but that defense still had Watt and Mercilus up front.

(Another correction to something i wrote above - Mahomes actually never beat Brady in either playoff game, just once in the regular season)

Since Pat Mahomes has got there they have won their first playoff game by double digits every year - except for one div game they only won by 5, but Mahomes was actually injured in that game (Browns, concussed). The Bills and Bengals took them to OT in back to back weeks last year but this Jags team is not as good as either of those teams were last year IMO. They beat Buffalo in OT last year and the year before they beat Buffalo by 14 in the AFC championship - and that team (they had Diggs) was also better than this Jags team.

Then next round is going to be Buffalo vs Kansas City for the 3rd straight year. They are the top 2 in the conference again this year. It looks highly likely another matchup is in the cards in the neutral site as the Bengals despte winning by more than Buffalo did last week, impressed me less.

I don't think the Jags will cover this game if they lose. The points may look juicy to some after last week but I don't think this one is going to be close and exciting. This is a different level of opponent and a much less favorable situation with the road vs the rest.

@NutinButtLove

 This will not be the 3rd straight year of Buff v KC. Last year it was Cinnci v KC.

I'm sorry but you actually don't understand linesmaking if you think that. They try to balance the action on each individual game. Either side could cover either game. There is just as much a chance of favorites going 2-0 as there is a split or dogs going 2-0.

If you think that when there's 2 games on that means that there's some kind of guarantee it will be 1 fav and 1 dog then you are playing mind games with yourself and my advice is cap every game individually and don't try to find patterns like you've got A Beautiful Mind. Favs were about to go 2-0 last Sat. Over hit 5 games in a row.

And anyway, as I explained this is the most solid of the 2 in my opinion, and my biggest play of the season. That's why I wrote so darn much! I really nerded out on this one and while I thought the Cowboys and 9ers were very strong plays last week and they were, I did make mistakes with the Chargers and Giants - and that mistake was just knowing LAC always screws me when I take them and the Giants screwed me when I faded them. But this KC team is, like I said, the standard for being a perennial contender in the NFL. The Bills are on their level. The Bengals have had their number. 

But this Jags team is going to lose by double digits just like the last 2 times an AFC south team went to arrowhead. Is this Jags team more like the Texans who lost by 20 in 2019-20, or the Titans team they played the next week and beat by 11? Well, that Titans team had beat Brady in Foxboro and the Pats in the Wildcard and then beat top seeded Ravens in Lamar's MVP year on the road... so IMO they have a bit to prove for me to say theyre on that level. Is this KC team as good as that one? I'm not sure but they have a lot of offensive stats where they are top of the NFL despite losing Hill, and beating the Jags by double digits does not seem like a stretch to me. It seems very doable, and in fact, exactly what they want considering if they advance they have to play a Bills team that beat them at home and a Bengals team that beat them the last twice.

Those will be tough matchups. As much credit as a I give the Jags this is a warmup to playing those two teams and I hope Pederson makes some of his patented 'gutsy calls' and they blow up in his face.

@NutinButtLove

 Love it. KC rolls.

@NutinButtLove

 He’s won a championship not plural. It’s rather a disappointment and a lot of choking 

@surfrancis

@imac2741

 They played Cinci in the Conf final they played Buffalo in the divisional

@Jdp2598

 I didn't mean to make that plural, but he has won AFC championships twice. He's had a lot of playoff success despite losing the conf champ and the SB. This Jags team isn't better than the teams that have beat him, and they aren't better than teams the Chiefs have beat by double digits in previous years in playoffs such as that Titans team that beat the Ravens, Buffalo the last 2 years, they're around as good as the Texans team that blew the 24 pt lead and lost by 20.

Hopefully I didn't miss anything actually important.

Any thought on giants game?

23-31

@NutinButtLove

BOOM, BOOM !!!!!!!! KC L F G ! 

Yes. i am putting another 5 units on the Eagles so both favorites today are my biggest plays of the season. Ive see so many people thinking it HAS to be one fav and one dog. I've really looked at everything I can and taken what I know and I don't see these teams staying close.

The Giants I admit I doubted all season and they screwed me many times fading them as a dog. But again, this is where I get my sweet revenge, just like I will on the Jags for last week.

The Giants haven't won in Philly in 10 years first of all. Similar to the Jags they had surprising season and how they did it was beating teams that have bad offenses. Take a look at their wins and see which ones have come against an offense in the top half of the NFL in yards per game. You won't find a single one.

The best offensive team they defeated was the Ravens who at 16th average a whopping 1 yard more than the 17th ranked Giants. Every other team the beat was ranked 19th or lower. The teams in the top half they lost too every time, including Dallas 2x and the Eagles 2x, got waxed by Detroit.

The Eagles have the best pass rush and the secondary is also excellent. They top the league in passing yards allowed and are 5th in interceptions. They are so many levels above that Minnesota team the Giants carved up. Big play Slay will cover Slayton  and they have little else at WR.

While Danny Dimes has the least picks in the NFL, his defense ALSO has the least picks in the NFL. Without a few turnovers they cannot match the explosiveness of the Eagles with Brown, Smith, Goedert and an excellent run game to complement it.

The Giants have a very good pass rush as well, but in the first game the sacks were 7 to 4 in favor of Philly and the first downs the Eagles had 9 more. Barkley had 3.1 yards per carry and didnt have more than 30 for the game.

The Giants bracketed Justin Jefferson all game last week to slow down Minnesota. They simply can't use that strategy this week. The Eagles have too many weapons. The TE is a stud, and Sanders ran for 144 yards on that defense last time. Hurts ran for 77.

The more I looked at this game the more I think the Eagles should be 9 or 9.5 the same way the Chiefs are. I said last night I thought the Chiefs were the more solid..i no longer think that. Because Philly's defense is so good at defending the pass and the passing game is where playoff games are won and lost and the Giants are limited there, though they do have a knack for moving the chains when they need to, it will be much harder on this defense than it was vs Minnesota.

Also Jalen Hurts actually has played in a playoff game before it's not his debut. This Giants team is not anything like the Tampa Bay team he lost to last year and the Eagles are better than Minnesota who didn't get blown out last week. The Eagles also beat the Vikings this year already while the Giants lost to them in the regular season before winning the game that really mattered.

The main reason I am now even higher on the Eagles than I was KC is just that I wonder will the coaching familiarity work in the Jags favor, will Pederson make a few gutsy calls that work out again, stuff like that. Philly actually has a better defense and more balanced offense than the Chiefs, who have had to replace Edwards Helaire and Hardman and Hill

When you go on the road for the 2nd straight week, to a team you haven't beat in 10 years, got swept by this year and who has the most sacks in the NFL, it's gonna be extremely difficult. And how do you turn that tide with a defense that doesn't get any picks? With an offense that is one good WR, a good RB, and an Alex Smith type game manager QB. The explosive plays, turnovers and sacks are all in Philly's favor along with home field and rest.

The Linc is where the plucky Giants unexpected run flames out.

Also  taking Miles Sanders anytime TD at -120. He had 2 the first time they played and while Scott and Gainwell have snaked some goal line carries, I like Miles to get one at some stage.

I remember about 20 years ago the Eagles couldn't beat thr Giants, they played them in the wildcard after losing to them both regular season games. And they lost again. Shoe has been on the other foot now for some time and I expect the top seed to get back on the ATS winning track

Brutal backdoor loss on the biggest play of the season. After overcoming the disaster of the MVP QB getting hurt, after getting two takeaways and a first down after the losers have used all their timeouts.

I mean I don't know what you can do to get a favorite to cover a spread if that won't do it.

As I said before in other threads I am done with football after this season and this type of crap is the reason why. I don't lose because teams I pick get blown out I always lose because of something stupid like that in the last few minutes.

If you keep betting football just bet dogs is my advice. You'll still have to sweat out the end like the fav players but your team will actually be trying at the end and not just in prevent defense hand off for no gain mode.

Anyway, see if the Eagles can get me a split on the day.

You deserved that W…….and so did l! 

Except….we didn’t overcome that. The best quarterback in the NFL was hobbled for the rest of the afternoon and finished with only 195 passing yards, staying under his passing yards prop by more than 70!

I wouldn’t call that a “brutal backdoor loss”.  Jax had just fumbled at the 3 then thrown a pick at midfield. If you know the favorite will be playing prevent defense at the end why would you make a -8.5 favorite your biggest play of the year?

@tsw

That's exactly my point. I mean you telling me Jags backers didn't think their bet was dead both times they turned it over. Especially the 2nd one? And especially after getting a 1st down when the other team has no TOs left?

If you're trying to tell me that the -8.5 wasn't extremely unlucky not to cover than I don't think there's any point to chatting to you. The Chiefs were the right call, a dirty play and a meaningless FG were the difference.

If I had the team that turned it over twice at the end and lost, I'm not thinking I got hosed by some bad luck. That's bad play..just like all the drops they had.

Anyway it doesn't matter, got a split with the Birds. It's not the end of the world. Very close to hitting my two biggest plays of the season, but it wasn't meant to be. 7-10 point spreads you really don't want to have a 10 point lead with time running down and the other team having the ball because of this stupid notion coaches have that they should go for the FG first even when they're close or in the red zone, and even though if you recovered an onside kick it takes less time and less yards to move into FG range, and you also would have the opportunity to take a shot to the end zone for a win instead of a tie.

If I would have won or lost both I might have just said fk the rest of the season and rode off into the sunset. Tired of these late game shenanigans man, sweating out because the game is designed to never fkin end.

@NutinButtLove

 I get it

As annoyed as I am about that ending, I'm sure there are some out there had the Chiefs and Giants and suffered through a no hope blowout loss off the back of that backdoor and that would be a truly horrible night to have so I won't complain and just move on.

I have my picks for next round locked and loaded, gonna watch the end of the Sixers game.