Thought long and hard about this and slept on it because I wanted to make sure I wasn't just making another 5 unit play because I was tilted from that bad beat, and you know what, I'm not.
Buffalo -5.5 5 unit play
Everything is setting up nicely for Josh Allen to get a chance at the Super Bowl, which the Bills were favored to win at the start of the year. Yes they missed a chance at the top seed but the solution of a neutral site at least means now they would face Mahomes away from Arrowhead and he is hobbled. Either opponent winning would set up a rematch for the Chiefs who also lost to both these teams in the regular season, and with Mahomes not looking right they know they will have a challenge on their hands. I don't necessarily think they would lose that game because he is still a great QB but I think it would be tough.
The Bengals did great to not get bit with the SB loss hangover that bites most teams - the Rams who won it absolutely went into the tank. But most teams that lose the SB DON'T get back to it next year and I don't think Cinci will, either. To do it they would have to win on the road twice, and if they played KC in KC I would take KC to get compensation for the OT loss last year. But as it stands they have to go to Buffalo, down 2/3 starting lineman and I don't think that bodes well for a team that changed its OLine up because Burrow was getting sacked like crazy.
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Sunday
Thought long and hard about this and slept on it because I wanted to make sure I wasn't just making another 5 unit play because I was tilted from that bad beat, and you know what, I'm not.
Buffalo -5.5 5 unit play
Everything is setting up nicely for Josh Allen to get a chance at the Super Bowl, which the Bills were favored to win at the start of the year. Yes they missed a chance at the top seed but the solution of a neutral site at least means now they would face Mahomes away from Arrowhead and he is hobbled. Either opponent winning would set up a rematch for the Chiefs who also lost to both these teams in the regular season, and with Mahomes not looking right they know they will have a challenge on their hands. I don't necessarily think they would lose that game because he is still a great QB but I think it would be tough.
The Bengals did great to not get bit with the SB loss hangover that bites most teams - the Rams who won it absolutely went into the tank. But most teams that lose the SB DON'T get back to it next year and I don't think Cinci will, either. To do it they would have to win on the road twice, and if they played KC in KC I would take KC to get compensation for the OT loss last year. But as it stands they have to go to Buffalo, down 2/3 starting lineman and I don't think that bodes well for a team that changed its OLine up because Burrow was getting sacked like crazy.
Looking at run stats and defensive stats Buffalo is similar to Baltimore who I think it's safe to say SHOULD have won last week. I think if the Ravens took that lead the way they were running the ball they probably would have kept it. I know it would have only been a one score game but it felt like the Bengals were on the ropes to me watching it. Also, they didn't score on offense after that and only scored one TD the 2nd half.
In fact, 2nd half scoring has been a problem for the Bengals in their last 3 games. If you read my posts you know I've been following 2nd half pts scored and allowed stats as that has been so key for teams to cover spreads. While Cinci ranks 10th in 2nd half scoring at 11.8 per game, in the last 3 games they have only averaged 6 - they aren't even scoring over a TD in the entire 2nd half of games?
Well, in fairness they did play Baltimore twice and NE once and NE has a very good defense too. But, Buffalo like I said is right up there. And Buffalo, who first of all already ranks 4th in 2nd half points scored at 12.9 per game, has actually improved recently scoring 21.3 per game the last 3. That's top of the league (for the last 3 games) SF is close behind and we know how they have been playing.
What Tennessee and Baltimore don't have is a QB like Josh Allen that can burn you with his legs as well as his arm, and speedsters like Diggs and Davis to stretch the field. Take a similar defense, add home field and a much more explosive offense and yes I will back that team strongly against a squad that used to have nightmare protection problems and is now having to replace the guys that seemed to improve that problem.
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Looking at run stats and defensive stats Buffalo is similar to Baltimore who I think it's safe to say SHOULD have won last week. I think if the Ravens took that lead the way they were running the ball they probably would have kept it. I know it would have only been a one score game but it felt like the Bengals were on the ropes to me watching it. Also, they didn't score on offense after that and only scored one TD the 2nd half.
In fact, 2nd half scoring has been a problem for the Bengals in their last 3 games. If you read my posts you know I've been following 2nd half pts scored and allowed stats as that has been so key for teams to cover spreads. While Cinci ranks 10th in 2nd half scoring at 11.8 per game, in the last 3 games they have only averaged 6 - they aren't even scoring over a TD in the entire 2nd half of games?
Well, in fairness they did play Baltimore twice and NE once and NE has a very good defense too. But, Buffalo like I said is right up there. And Buffalo, who first of all already ranks 4th in 2nd half points scored at 12.9 per game, has actually improved recently scoring 21.3 per game the last 3. That's top of the league (for the last 3 games) SF is close behind and we know how they have been playing.
What Tennessee and Baltimore don't have is a QB like Josh Allen that can burn you with his legs as well as his arm, and speedsters like Diggs and Davis to stretch the field. Take a similar defense, add home field and a much more explosive offense and yes I will back that team strongly against a squad that used to have nightmare protection problems and is now having to replace the guys that seemed to improve that problem.
With all the young stud QBs and the way the passing game has taken over it's easy to forget the run game, but guess what, we're actually seeing that teams that can run the ball are the ones that can close out those all important 2nd halfs. Look at the Eagles yesterday.
The lack of a run game is why the Chargers lost last week. their 2.9 yards per carry was typical. Well, Cincinnati is only ranked 29th in rushing averaging 4.5 ypc on the season. Tampa Bay is 32nd and that's why I faded them so hard last week. Minnesota is 28th. These teams without run games are failing in these playoffs. And Cincinnati, just like with their 2nd half scoring, has gotten even worse lately, pluymetting from 93 yards a game down to an average of a measly 60 the last 3 games. While conversely again, Buffalo has improved their 8th ranked rush game that nets 137 per game to 150 per game. Now they did play Chicago in one of those who rank 31s in run D, but the other 2 games were vs Miami and NE who rank 5th and 6th.
Cinci allowed 155 yards rushing last week. Clearly they can't just key on Allen and Diggs in the pass game the way things are going. Meanwhile the Bills have not allowed 100 yard rusher in the last 3 games and Miami only had 42.
If you remember the start of the year it actually looked like Cinci WAS going to have a SB hangover. They lost the 1st two games with Burrow being sacked 13 times total vs Dallas and Pitt. The offense was struggling to score. With the lack of run game, lack of 2nd half scoring lately, and the lineman being out, these problems could crop up again.
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With all the young stud QBs and the way the passing game has taken over it's easy to forget the run game, but guess what, we're actually seeing that teams that can run the ball are the ones that can close out those all important 2nd halfs. Look at the Eagles yesterday.
The lack of a run game is why the Chargers lost last week. their 2.9 yards per carry was typical. Well, Cincinnati is only ranked 29th in rushing averaging 4.5 ypc on the season. Tampa Bay is 32nd and that's why I faded them so hard last week. Minnesota is 28th. These teams without run games are failing in these playoffs. And Cincinnati, just like with their 2nd half scoring, has gotten even worse lately, pluymetting from 93 yards a game down to an average of a measly 60 the last 3 games. While conversely again, Buffalo has improved their 8th ranked rush game that nets 137 per game to 150 per game. Now they did play Chicago in one of those who rank 31s in run D, but the other 2 games were vs Miami and NE who rank 5th and 6th.
Cinci allowed 155 yards rushing last week. Clearly they can't just key on Allen and Diggs in the pass game the way things are going. Meanwhile the Bills have not allowed 100 yard rusher in the last 3 games and Miami only had 42.
If you remember the start of the year it actually looked like Cinci WAS going to have a SB hangover. They lost the 1st two games with Burrow being sacked 13 times total vs Dallas and Pitt. The offense was struggling to score. With the lack of run game, lack of 2nd half scoring lately, and the lineman being out, these problems could crop up again.
The stats are backing up what I saw last week: this Bengals teams is not great, despite the stars they have on the offensive side.
Now, it would be easy to make the case the Bills were even LESS impressive looking at the scoreline vs a Dolphins team starting a backup QB, barely squeaking by as 2 TD favorites.
But, Miami actually was bottled up on offense, few passes were completed (in fairness, a few bad drops helped) and there was little run game. It certainly looked the rout would be on when BUffalo ran back the opening kick and then scored again after a pick by Skylar, but I've seen many times were the team does that doesn't end up covering. The Bills achilles heel is always the turnovers and Allen also threw a red zone pick.
I wish to god he would cut out the end zone and red zone picks. That's the only thing keeping them from still being SB favorites in my eyes. The Eagles Cowboys and Niners I think all have ball hawking defenses and he is too prone to those mistakes.
But other than that the tight game vs Miami doesn't worry me, because Miami tends to trouble Buffalo. I've seen them play many times where the game was tight, including the regular season games where the Bills lost once and won by 3 to them. Unlike say, the Giants and Eagles where one team owns the other they seem to go back and forth in their games a lot. And let's not forget the offensive system and WRs Miami had made Tua Tagavoila who I think is maybe at best an above average QB the league leader in passer rating.
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The stats are backing up what I saw last week: this Bengals teams is not great, despite the stars they have on the offensive side.
Now, it would be easy to make the case the Bills were even LESS impressive looking at the scoreline vs a Dolphins team starting a backup QB, barely squeaking by as 2 TD favorites.
But, Miami actually was bottled up on offense, few passes were completed (in fairness, a few bad drops helped) and there was little run game. It certainly looked the rout would be on when BUffalo ran back the opening kick and then scored again after a pick by Skylar, but I've seen many times were the team does that doesn't end up covering. The Bills achilles heel is always the turnovers and Allen also threw a red zone pick.
I wish to god he would cut out the end zone and red zone picks. That's the only thing keeping them from still being SB favorites in my eyes. The Eagles Cowboys and Niners I think all have ball hawking defenses and he is too prone to those mistakes.
But other than that the tight game vs Miami doesn't worry me, because Miami tends to trouble Buffalo. I've seen them play many times where the game was tight, including the regular season games where the Bills lost once and won by 3 to them. Unlike say, the Giants and Eagles where one team owns the other they seem to go back and forth in their games a lot. And let's not forget the offensive system and WRs Miami had made Tua Tagavoila who I think is maybe at best an above average QB the league leader in passer rating.
Miami is actually built similar to Cincinnati - hot sh*t WRs with a very mediocre run game. Defensively Miami allows more points but they have a glaring weakness in the pass game - they are 29th in the NFL in yards allowed per completion. For reference Minnesota and the Chargers are 28 and 27 and Seattle is 26. All teams bad in this stat have been eliminated. It's strange because they actually lead the league allowing the lowest percentage of completions, but when they do get completed it's for a big play.
That's not a good recipe for a Buffalo offense that thrives on explosive plays. Cincinnati's pass game was held to only 181 yards last week and the injuries plus the Hurst fumble had them all out of sorts. Buffalo should be built perfectly to counter a team that can only pass - they have an excellent secondary and lead the NFL in opponent passer rating. Now Cinci is number 3 but they are still below Buffalo with Philly spplitting them. But the Bills get more sacks, limit the big plays more and they also have the better run defense to go with it.
Crucially, looking at last week's games, the Bills outgained Miami by 193 yards while the Bengals were outgained by over 100 vs Baltimore. Yes the Bengals have a much better QB than Miami, but are they built to beat the Bills? Are they going to do it on the road again in the playoffs?
I doubt it very much. They started off the season looking like they would struggle and turned it around, only to have the types of things happen towards the end that often happen to SB loser teams - multiple injuries. One injury isn't bad when you start getting multiple at the same group espeically a group that struggled previously you will have a tough time.
I said last week the Hamlin thing was over with and I didn't think it mattered. But playing the same team it happened to... I dunno. It is their last home game of the season also. I think FINALLY we get a game where Josh Allen doesn't make those dumb mistakes that let the other team hang around.
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Miami is actually built similar to Cincinnati - hot sh*t WRs with a very mediocre run game. Defensively Miami allows more points but they have a glaring weakness in the pass game - they are 29th in the NFL in yards allowed per completion. For reference Minnesota and the Chargers are 28 and 27 and Seattle is 26. All teams bad in this stat have been eliminated. It's strange because they actually lead the league allowing the lowest percentage of completions, but when they do get completed it's for a big play.
That's not a good recipe for a Buffalo offense that thrives on explosive plays. Cincinnati's pass game was held to only 181 yards last week and the injuries plus the Hurst fumble had them all out of sorts. Buffalo should be built perfectly to counter a team that can only pass - they have an excellent secondary and lead the NFL in opponent passer rating. Now Cinci is number 3 but they are still below Buffalo with Philly spplitting them. But the Bills get more sacks, limit the big plays more and they also have the better run defense to go with it.
Crucially, looking at last week's games, the Bills outgained Miami by 193 yards while the Bengals were outgained by over 100 vs Baltimore. Yes the Bengals have a much better QB than Miami, but are they built to beat the Bills? Are they going to do it on the road again in the playoffs?
I doubt it very much. They started off the season looking like they would struggle and turned it around, only to have the types of things happen towards the end that often happen to SB loser teams - multiple injuries. One injury isn't bad when you start getting multiple at the same group espeically a group that struggled previously you will have a tough time.
I said last week the Hamlin thing was over with and I didn't think it mattered. But playing the same team it happened to... I dunno. It is their last home game of the season also. I think FINALLY we get a game where Josh Allen doesn't make those dumb mistakes that let the other team hang around.
With Burrow getting his shot last year, I think Allen, who has played in a lot of playoff games, finally gets his shot at the Super Bowl. He'll have to beat the current final boss of the NFL (Mahomes, who has taken that torch from Brady) but it is all setting up nicely for him to get a shot at cashing all those preseason bets.
Prior to that unlikely run last year the Bengals were never a good playoff team. The O line struggles could return and see Burrow getting sacked a bunch again and they are already not able to run the ball. They didn't look great at stopping the run either. Imagine if the Ravens had a QB who could run (ahem, Lamar) and guys not named Andrews who could get separation - they would have walked that game. They lost on a fluke. Despite the Bills only winning by 3 I never felt they were in serious danger of losing straight up. I felt the Bengals were going to, they were getting gashed on the run.
If Buffalo gets another good start like they did last week I like their chances vs a team who isn't scoring in the 2nd half, esp with Buffalo being top 5 in both 2nd half offense and defense. Will they get another good start? Well they might not run the opening kickoff back but they do lead the NFL in 1st quarter scoring.
The Bengals did great to make it this far. They did great just to make the playoffs as teams generally don't after a SB loss. But you could see it was all unraveling last week before they got extremely lucky. Now they play a team with similar run and defense stats and a much more potent passing game. It's gonna be good night for Joe Cool as I think the Bills will romp the Bengals to set up a mouth watering neutral site clash with a vulnerable looking Chiefs team. Of the 3 teams currently left in the AFC they are the most balanced in terms of run/pass on offense and also the most balanced in terms of offense/defense.
Lastly I'll finish off my epic novel off with a quick note on special teams: Evan McPherson has had a down year missing a few PATS and actually has a lower conversion rate on FGs than the Bills kicker this year as well.
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With Burrow getting his shot last year, I think Allen, who has played in a lot of playoff games, finally gets his shot at the Super Bowl. He'll have to beat the current final boss of the NFL (Mahomes, who has taken that torch from Brady) but it is all setting up nicely for him to get a shot at cashing all those preseason bets.
Prior to that unlikely run last year the Bengals were never a good playoff team. The O line struggles could return and see Burrow getting sacked a bunch again and they are already not able to run the ball. They didn't look great at stopping the run either. Imagine if the Ravens had a QB who could run (ahem, Lamar) and guys not named Andrews who could get separation - they would have walked that game. They lost on a fluke. Despite the Bills only winning by 3 I never felt they were in serious danger of losing straight up. I felt the Bengals were going to, they were getting gashed on the run.
If Buffalo gets another good start like they did last week I like their chances vs a team who isn't scoring in the 2nd half, esp with Buffalo being top 5 in both 2nd half offense and defense. Will they get another good start? Well they might not run the opening kickoff back but they do lead the NFL in 1st quarter scoring.
The Bengals did great to make it this far. They did great just to make the playoffs as teams generally don't after a SB loss. But you could see it was all unraveling last week before they got extremely lucky. Now they play a team with similar run and defense stats and a much more potent passing game. It's gonna be good night for Joe Cool as I think the Bills will romp the Bengals to set up a mouth watering neutral site clash with a vulnerable looking Chiefs team. Of the 3 teams currently left in the AFC they are the most balanced in terms of run/pass on offense and also the most balanced in terms of offense/defense.
Lastly I'll finish off my epic novel off with a quick note on special teams: Evan McPherson has had a down year missing a few PATS and actually has a lower conversion rate on FGs than the Bills kicker this year as well.
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