DK NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP 2017

Question

divisional round record: 7-1 (&#x2B;29.41u)playoff overall record: 11-5 (&#x2B;22.08u)

Digitalkarma · Answer

divisional round record: 7-1 (&#x2B;29.41u)playoff overall record: 11-5 (&#x2B;22.08u)

Digitalkarma · Answer

still trying to soak it all in.tallied my profits this morning and i made a little bit over 3 G&#x27;s yesterday, including a few live bets on Pack and Steelers(in final minutes of 4th QT after KC comeback) which i did not document. i was too "in the moment" to be on my phone. all i can say about the championship round is i will not be going nearly "all in" again, that was uncharacteristic of me to risk almost my entire roll and i was fortunate the dogs came through. Going to go a little easy this time. i&#x27;m more comfortably ahead than i could have imagined. DK still stands and, lives to see another day and another bet!

foxhound · Answer

Cheers DK- I followed you and made 2k over the weekend &#x2B; 1k from Clemson. Gonna take it easy this weekend myself and just get a little action to make things interesting

Digitalkarma · Answer

yes sir. had Clemson &#x2B;220 ML and &#x2B;6.5 soon after line came out but the &#x2B;7 and &#x2B;250 dropped quick.  had small action on it. still the best game i&#x27;ve seen all year. Packers vs Cowboys a close second!

Digitalkarma · Answer

Packers ML dropped a nickel...

Digitalkarma · Answer

as much as I would like to dive head first and make a pick, something tells me to hold off on it for a moment. yes i already have my leans. my prediction thread before the playoffs started said Green Bay/New England win SU to go to the Super Bowl.

i've already done some preliminary capping on the Packers/Falcons game and to me that game is much easier to look into than the Steelers/Patriots

but let's get a little historical perspective on the conference championship

since 1992:

the Home Team is 32-18 SU(64%), but 25-25 ATS (%50)

the Favorite(road or home is 36-14 SU(72%), and 28-22 ATS (%56)

Home Team Favorite

SU ATS SU ATS

2016: 2-0, 2-0 1-1, 1-1

2015: 2-0, 1-1 2-0, 1-1

2014: 2-0, 2-0 2-0, 2-0

2013: 0-2, 1-1 1-1, 1-1

2012: 1-1, 0-2 1-1, 0-2

2011: 1-1, 1-1 2-0, 2-0

2010: 2-0, 1-1 2-0, 1-1

2009: 2-0, 2-0 1-1, 1-1

2008: 1-1, 0-2 1-1, 0-2

2007: 2-0, 2-0 2-0, 2-0

2006: 1-1, 1-1 1-1, 1-1

2005: 1-1, 1-1 2-0, 2-0

2004: 1-1, 1-1 1-1, 1-1

2003: 1-1, 1-1 1-1, 1-1

2002: 1-1, 0-2 1-1, 0-2

2001: 1-1, 1-1 1-1, 1-1

2000: 1-1, 0-2 1-1, 0-2

1999: 1-1, 1-1 1-1, 1-1

1998: 0-2, 0-2 2-0, 2-0

1997: 2-0, 2-0 2-0, 2-0

1996: 2-0, 1-1 2-0, 1-1

1995: 1-1, 1-1 1-1, 1-1

1994: 2-0, 2-0 2-0, 2-0

1993: 0-2, 0-2 1-1, 1-1

1992: 2-0, 1-1 2-0, 1-1

1991: 1-1, 1-1 1-1, 1-1

1990: 2-0, 2-0 2-0, 2-0

Last 5 years

Home SU ATS Fave SU ATS

'16-'12 7-3, 6-4 7-3, 5-5

'11-'07 8-2, 6-4 8-2, 6-4

'06-'02 5-5, 4-6 6-4, 5-5

'01-'97 7-3, 5-5 8-2, 6-4

'96-'92 5-5, 4-6 7-3, 6-4

Europa · Answer

Patriots may win it SU but not cover the 5.5/6 points spread, this team tends to win but not cover the spread esp. dealing with very physical teams, such as the Ravens. i can't say these Steelers resemble 2012-13 or the 2011-2012 Ravens but these Steelers are pretty similar if not better than those Ravens.

Pats are ranked #1 in the scoring defense category in the League and that's impressive, however they have played many lowly teams in the regular season. And Pats are ranked dead last in terms of schedule of strength in 2016 season.

https://www.predictionmachine.com/Strength-of-Schedule-Rankings

Digitalkarma · Answer

and here is my betting and prediction situation related to history:

i made future bets on only 4 teams: Ravens, Seahawks, Steelers and Packers.

Ravens obviously didn't make the playoffs. Seahawks got eliminated in the divisional round. Steelers and Packers are still alive and playing next weekend in the Championship round. Both teams will have their chances to make the Super Bowl, but the question is....

how often does it happen that two road teams win SU in the same year in the conference finals to go to the Super Bowl? especially if they are both underdogs?

it has never happened before.

we also have a few instances where a road favorite and road dog have won SU the same year. the last time that happened was in 2013 when the Ravens beat the Patriots as underdogs and 49ers beat the Falcons as favorites. road teams also swept in 1998 and 1993. Broncos and Packers won as small road faves to meet in Super Bowl 32.. 3 times in the last 20 seasons, doesnt happen very often!

so yes home field advantage is more important in the championship round than say the divisional

Digitalkarma · Answer

i agree with you, my betting mind says Packers and Steelers plus the points.. those are my leans right now. the thing about this matchup between the Steelers and Patriots is... Brady has had the Steelers number and i&#x27;d say they put on a bigger asswhooping on them than they do against the Ravens. the other thing is Pats have not covered in the championship round well: 1-5 ATS since their perfect regular season. they are only 4-6 overall.. and the four they covered against was Indy and Pittsburgh each twiceMaybe third time is a charm for these Steelers, their defense is fast and physical. they could certainly harass Brady but will they use their smarts? its a chess game with the Hoodie and Brady. i think LeVeon Bell will be a huge X-factor for Pitt. Like Aaron Rodgers, he is hot and cannot be stopped! If Pats can contain him then Pitt is in trouble.but i &#x27;m seeing a 4 pt game here for the meantimelol and Pats always have a cupcake schedule. they just have to only really prepare for 2 or 3 big games a year and in the playoffs against some good teams and have had success most of the time..

Digitalkarma · Answer

...because of their homefield advantage.

Europa · Answer

12/12/16, Baltimore at New England. Pats -6 in that game, final score is 30-23 Pats, Ravens were doing do-or-go-home type of game for their playoff berth but they failed in the end. 1st quarter 10:47, "Kenneth Dixon tackled in end zone by Malcom Brown for a safety", 2-0 Pats. So without that safety, Pats would win but not cover the spread. Dixon had merely 11 attempts for 39 rushing yards, i think even if Bill Belichick tries to take out Pittsburgh's offensive strength, i.e. their run game but i still doubt that Le'Veon Bell will have similar results on upcoming Sunday as Dixon in that 12-12-16 game.

Of course, Mike Tomlin is no John Harbaugh in terms of dealing with hoodie but Tomlin has 8-5 postseason record, won 2 AFC Championships and one SB ( record: 1-1). Pittsburgh lost one SB to the Packers in 2/6/2011. I think Sunday's game will be a tough fight to the end, DK.

JoeyMargs · Answer

A " Real Fugging Offense" Would be able to score a touchdown in the playoffs.

Wizz_KIDD35 · Answer

Please don&#x27;t let Pats schedule determine your pick for game...you have been warned....Hoodie and Brady will show up with best foot forward so tread lightly with this cupcake schedule stuff...Pittsburgh can win and we just may see upset...but Brady, Belichick, Home field screams danger danger

Digitalkarma · Answer

exactly Wizz. thats why i say Pats homefield advantage is huge and its so easy for them to obtain it because they have a cupcake schedule. not to take anything away from them because this team prepares well and win when it matters. its just so much easier for them when the road goes through New England. Pats on the road in conference round are just 2-3.. they beat Steelers twice in Pitt but couldnt beat Peyton Manning in indy or Denver. their only home conference loss was against the Ravens... i can see the Steelers losing this one but they have as good as shot as any when their offense gets rolling. its really going to be up to their defense to make a difference and Brady has shredded them. 19 TDs, no INTs? yikes

Digitalkarma · Answer

PlayPackers &#x2B;5  *1u*Packers &#x2B;175 ML *1u*for now.

Digitalkarma · Answer

Packers/Falcons thoughtshere is the matchup i envisioned when playoff seedings were finalized. a great offensive matchup indeed. here we have the top two scoring offenses in the 2nd half of the NFL season. the Pack have been scoring an average of 32 ppg since Aaron Rodgers declared "we could run the table" and have won 8 straight games since while Matty Ice&#x27;s Falcons are scoring an average of 33 ppg in their last 8 games to put them well ahead as the #1 scoring offense overall of the 2016-17 season.Both quarterbacks are playing at a high level right now and it really is going to come down to who will outduel the other. Which QB will make the clutch throw, In pressure situations with the game on the line? and i have to believe that it will be..Aaron Rodgers.the same Aaron Rodgers that you said his skills were on the decline. the same Aaron Rodgers who was once formerly an Super Bowl winning QB and league MVP, who you said was washed up and had seen his best years behind him when the Packers lost 4 straight to go 4-6. Then he decided to run the table. You dont see teams like these that go down and out then battle back from adversity to go on a playoff run very often. And you can see a glimmer of destiny here, just like the Packers of 2010, Ravens of 2012, Giants of 2007 and Steelers of 2005. the Packers have endured playoff heartbreak loss after another since they won the Super Bowl. From their near perfect season being ruined by the Giants ending their back to back title hopes to an epic meltdown against the Seahawks in an overtime loss in the NFC Championship a couple years back. I sense alot of pent-up frustration and this hardship has translated into a sense of urgency for the Pack.  I believe this is their best chance as any to get back to the big stage. Of course this doesnt all mean anything if the Pack dont come up with the best gameplan against this high octane Falcon offense that is being compared to the Rams Greatest Show on Turf. here is why i like the Packto be continued....

Cooler999 · Answer

Of course this doesnt all mean anything if the Pack dont come up with the best gameplan against this high octane Falcon offense that is being compared to the Rams Greatest Show on Turf.

here is why i like the Pack

Great points, love the read.

We all know what happened when the Greatest Show on Turf was a 10 point favorite over NE.

Anything can happen.....BOL on the playoffs DIG

theclaw · Answer

Are you aware Rodgers was out-played last weekend by a rookie QB in both QBPR and ave per pass, 2 stats that have the highest correlations to winning games and predicitive value going forward.

Ryan crushed one of the most successful playoff QB's and teams by 50 pts and 1.8 yards per pass.

I wouldn't call Rodgers the hot one......................................

Digitalkarma · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Cooler999]  Of course this doesnt all mean anything if the Pack dont come up &#xD;&#xA;with the best gameplan against this high octane Falcon offense that is &#xD;&#xA;being compared to the Rams Greatest Show on Turf. here is why i like the PackGreat points, love the read.  We all know what happened when the Greatest Show on Turf was a 10 point favorite over NE.Anything can happen.....BOL on the playoffs DIG  [/Quote]thank you. exactly. good luck Cooler

Digitalkarma · Answer

Ryan beat which team by 50 pts? and which successful playoff QB are we talking about?and make no mistake, Dak Prescott did much better than i thought he would in his first playoff game. he almost pulled off the comeback. but he has done this several times during the season so i guess it shouldn&#x27;t be surprising. he&#x27;s definitely got poise and he&#x27;s only going to get better.however it seems Dak&#x27;s QBPR and avg per pass wasn&#x27;t enough to help his team win the game. i mean if you compare head to head stats, Rodgers had the better completion rate and more passing yards than Dak. the only difference was that Dak had one more TD than Rodgers, so yes Dak did outduel him in that aspect, but Aaron Rodgers managed the game better and was the better situational QB and knew what it took to extend the play to win the game.  football really is a team sport and not just one man. The Packers were the more cohesive and disciplined team. Those penalties really killed Dallas..i figure the Falcons will be much better at trying to not self-destruct like Dallas did at times.

Digitalkarma · Answer

continuedhere is why i like the Pack....1.)Same season revenge for Aaron Rodgers.he is 8-5 SU in those games. Rodgers hasnt been as successful as say.. Brady in revenge games. for the last 4 seasons the same team that beat the Packers earlier were the same teams that knocked the Packers out of the playoffs(coincidentally all NFC West teams). otherwise he would be 8-1 against other teams and thats including the two revenge games this season where he is 2-0 in avenging losses to the Vikings and recently to the Cowboys.Rodgers will get another chance at redemption in a week 8 loss to the Falcons, a game that they almost won but Matt Ryan outdueled Rodgers with the game winning touchdown pass with 30 seconds left in regulation. the Pack were also without 4 of their starters in that matchup(Randall Cobb, Ty Montgomery, Jared Cook, Clay Matthews) all of whom have been key contributors to the Packers late season surge and they still only lost by a score of 32-33! 2.)Strength of ScheduleThe Packers SOS were against teams with a combined winning percentage of .508 ranked #13The Falcons SOS were against teams with a combined winning percentage of .480 ranked #25Whats funny is that the Packers were supposed to have the easiest schedule coming into the season with an SOS rank #32(.457) based on 2015 records while the Falcons were supposed to be #1(.555) but the Packers played a tougher schedule than the Falcons did.  the Packers played 6 of this year&#x27;s playoff teams(Giants, Cowboys, Lions*twice*, @Falcons, Texans and Seahawks). They are 5-2, not counting the playoffs. Of course they had the luxury of playing these teams at home except for the Falcons so you may question the SOS rankings a bit. However, if you look at the Packers 2nd half schedule they were on the road 5 of their last 8 games where they went 3-2 and played against some good defenses like the Vikings, Bears and Texans although they werent necessarily good teams overall. the Falcons played 4 of this year&#x27;s playoff teams(@Raiders, @Seahawks, Packers, Chiefs) They are 2-2 where they split 1-1 at home and away. the Falcons play in a weak division and against a weaker than usual NFC West division this year. when you look at the 2nd half schedule it becomes even more apparent. the 49ers? Rams? its easy to drop 40&#x2B; on them and they have no offense. the Cardinals and Panthers were not the same teams from last year, the Falcons swept the Panthers rather handedly. the only playoff calibur worthy team they faced during this time were the Chiefs and they lost that one. It wasnt hard to see the Falcons go 6-2 during that stretch. And they lost to the Chargers and Bucs at home? a bit of a headscratcher for sure. to be continued..

Achilles1629 · Answer

Vikings and bears good defenses? Come on brother. I live in Chicago and no way do th bears have a reputable defense. Sorry. As for the Vikings, they were good the first half of the season but fell off hard. The packers schedule down the stretch was cake.

Digitalkarma · Answer

3.) the Packers have the better defenseThat&#x27;s a bit of a stretch for me to say because the Packers don&#x27;t really have a good defense, not least a top 10 one. But, in this matchup the Packers defense is better than the Falcons.the Packers may give up lots of yards but they have given up 19.5 ppg since their winning streak. The Falcons by comparison have given up 20.87 ppg in their last 8 games. Overall the Packers have given up 24.3 ppg(21st) for the season compared to 25.4 ppg(27th) for the Falcons. The Packers defense also has the slight edge in the redzone and on 3rd downs. I can also trust the Green Bay pass rush of Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Nick Perry and Mike Daniels to put some pressure on the opposing QB than the Falcon&#x27;s pass rush of Vic Beasley, Adrian Clayborn and Dwight Freeney... I think Clayborn being out for this game will be a big loss for the Falcons even though he only has 4 sacks as the 2nd leading sacker on the team. Without Clayborn, Beasley won&#x27;t be quite as a disruptive force in my opinion. the Falcons don&#x27;t really have any other proven pass rushers besides Freeney. which leads me to another pointGreen Bay&#x27;s defense is more opportunistic in takeaways. they only had 28 takeaways this season including playoffs which is average but 18 of those takeaways happened in their last 8 games while the Falcons have 24 takeaways on the year but 14 of those in their last 8 games. Turnovers will be key in this game and I think Green Bay&#x27;s secondary will more likely intercept a pass from Matt Ryan than Rodgers against the Falcons secondary. It will be a big loss if Morgan Burnett does not play, but they still have Micah Hyde and Clinton-Dix making plays in the backfield. lastly, injuries will also be key to this game. for the Packers, they are more banged up than the Falcons are. We all know it is wishful thinking that Jordy Nelson can suit for this game. i do not expect him to play. Meanwhile it will be tough if the Packers do not have Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison or Morgan Burnett for this game. for the Falcons, they lost Adrian Clayborn for the season. Even though Vic Beasley is a one-man wrecking crew, the Falcons don&#x27;t have enough pass rushing help and Clayborn out is a big loss. Julio Jones hurt his toe but I don&#x27;t see him missing this game. i can&#x27;t imagine him not being effective. i wonder how much the Falcons are going to miss Desmond Trufant for this game now that they are facing Rodgers again... going to wait for the injury report before deciding whether to add more unitsfinal summary coming later..

Digitalkarma · Answer

ok the Bears defense may not be good i&#x27;ll give you that, but it&#x27;s halfway decent. obviously both of those teams did not do their defenses any favors with their pathetic offenses. sure the Packers schedule may seem like a cakewalk and you&#x27;re saying the Falcons played a tougher schedule? and the Falcons played one more home game than the Packers did?

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