DK NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP 2017

yes sir. had Clemson +220 ML and +6.5 soon after line came out but the +7 and +250 dropped quick.  had small action on it. still the best game i've seen all year. Packers vs Cowboys a close second!

 i've already done some preliminary capping on the Packers/Falcons game and to me that game is much easier to look into than the Steelers/Patriots

since 1992: 

the Home Team is 32-18 SU(64%), but 25-25 ATS (%50)

the Favorite(road or home is 36-14 SU(72%), and 28-22 ATS (%56)

Last 5 years 

    Home SU  ATS   Fave  SU  ATS  

Pats are ranked #1 in the scoring defense category in the League and that's impressive, however they have played many lowly teams in the regular season. And Pats are ranked dead last in terms of schedule of strength in 2016 season.

https://www.predictionmachine.com/Strength-of-Schedule-Rankings

i made future bets on only 4 teams: Ravens, Seahawks, Steelers and Packers. 

Ravens obviously didn't make the playoffs. Seahawks got eliminated in the divisional round. Steelers and Packers are still alive and playing next weekend in the Championship round. Both teams will have their chances to make the Super Bowl, but the question is.... 

how often does it happen that two road teams win SU in the same year in the conference finals to go to the Super Bowl? especially if they are both underdogs? 

it has never happened before. 

we also have a few instances where a road favorite and road dog have won SU the same year. the last time that happened was in 2013 when the Ravens beat the Patriots as underdogs and 49ers beat the Falcons as favorites. road teams also swept in 1998 and 1993. Broncos and Packers won as small road faves to meet in Super Bowl 32..  3 times in the last 20 seasons, doesnt happen very often!

so yes home field advantage is more important in the championship round than say the divisional

i agree with you, my betting mind says Packers and Steelers plus the points.. those are my leans right now. the thing about this matchup between the Steelers and Patriots is... Brady has had the Steelers number and i'd say they put on a bigger asswhooping on them than they do against the Ravens. the other thing is Pats have not covered in the championship round well: 1-5 ATS since their perfect regular season. they are only 4-6 overall.. and the four they covered against was Indy and Pittsburgh each twice

Maybe third time is a charm for these Steelers, their defense is fast and physical. they could certainly harass Brady but will they use their smarts? its a chess game with the Hoodie and Brady. i think LeVeon Bell will be a huge X-factor for Pitt. Like Aaron Rodgers, he is hot and cannot be stopped! If Pats can contain him then Pitt is in trouble.but i 'm seeing a 4 pt game here for the meantime

lol and Pats always have a cupcake schedule. they just have to only really prepare for 2 or 3 big games a year and in the playoffs against some good teams and have had success most of the time.. 

A " Real Fugging Offense" Would be able to score a touchdown in the playoffs.

for now.

here is the matchup i envisioned when playoff seedings were finalized. a great offensive matchup indeed. here we have the top two scoring offenses in the 2nd half of the NFL season. the Pack have been scoring an average of 32 ppg since Aaron Rodgers declared "we could run the table" and have won 8 straight games since while Matty Ice's Falcons are scoring an average of 33 ppg in their last 8 games to put them well ahead as the #1 scoring offense overall of the 2016-17 season.

Both quarterbacks are playing at a high level right now and it really is going to come down to who will outduel the other. Which QB will make the clutch throw, In pressure situations with the game on the line? and i have to believe that it will be..

Aaron Rodgers.

the same Aaron Rodgers that you said his skills were on the decline. the same Aaron Rodgers who was once formerly an Super Bowl winning QB and league MVP, who you said was washed up and had seen his best years behind him when the Packers lost 4 straight to go 4-6. Then he decided to run the table. You dont see teams like these that go down and out then battle back from adversity to go on a playoff run very often. 

And you can see a glimmer of destiny here, just like the Packers of 2010, Ravens of 2012, Giants of 2007 and Steelers of 2005. the Packers have endured playoff heartbreak loss after another since they won the Super Bowl. From their near perfect season being ruined by the Giants ending their back to back title hopes to an epic meltdown against the Seahawks in an overtime loss in the NFC Championship a couple years back. I sense alot of pent-up frustration and this hardship has translated into a sense of urgency for the Pack.  I believe this is their best chance as any to get back to the big stage. Of course this doesnt all mean anything if the Pack dont come up with the best gameplan against this high octane Falcon offense that is being compared to the Rams Greatest Show on Turf. 

here is why i like the Pack

here is why i like the Pack


Great points, love the read. 

We all know what happened when the Greatest Show on Turf was a 10 point favorite over NE.

Anything can happen.....BOL on the playoffs DIG

Ryan crushed one of the most successful playoff QB's and teams  by 50 pts and 1.8 yards per pass.

I wouldn't call Rodgers the hot one......................................

thank you. exactly. good luck Cooler 

Ryan beat which team by 50 pts? and which successful playoff QB are we talking about?

and make no mistake, Dak Prescott did much better than i thought he would in his first playoff game. he almost pulled off the comeback. but he has done this several times during the season so i guess it shouldn't be surprising. he's definitely got poise and he's only going to get better.

however it seems Dak's QBPR and avg per pass wasn't enough to help his team win the game.

 i mean if you compare head to head stats, Rodgers had the better completion rate and more passing yards than Dak. the only difference was that Dak had one more TD than Rodgers, so yes Dak did outduel him in that aspect, but Aaron Rodgers managed the game better and was the better situational QB and knew what it took to extend the play to win the game.  football really is a team sport and not just one man. The Packers were the more cohesive and disciplined team. Those penalties really killed Dallas..

i figure the Falcons will be much better at trying to not self-destruct like Dallas did at times. 

The Packers SOS were against teams with a combined winning percentage of .508 ranked #13

The Falcons SOS were against teams with a combined winning percentage of .480 ranked #25

Whats funny is that the Packers were supposed to have the easiest schedule coming into the season with an SOS rank #32(.457) based on 2015 records while the Falcons were supposed to be #1(.555) but the Packers played a tougher schedule than the Falcons did.  

That's a bit of a stretch for me to say because the Packers don't really have a good defense, not least a top 10 one. But, in this matchup the Packers defense is better than the Falcons.

the Packers may give up lots of yards but they have given up 19.5 ppg since their winning streak. The Falcons by comparison have given up 20.87 ppg in their last 8 games. Overall the Packers have given up 24.3 ppg(21st) for the season compared to 25.4 ppg(27th) for the Falcons. The Packers defense also has the slight edge in the redzone and on 3rd downs. I can also trust the Green Bay pass rush of Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Nick Perry and Mike Daniels to put some pressure on the opposing QB than the Falcon's pass rush of Vic Beasley, Adrian Clayborn and Dwight Freeney... I think Clayborn being out for this game will be a big loss for the Falcons even though he only has 4 sacks as the 2nd leading sacker on the team. Without Clayborn, Beasley won't be quite as a disruptive force in my opinion. the Falcons don't really have any other proven pass rushers besides Freeney. which leads me to another point

Green Bay's defense is more opportunistic in takeaways. they only had 28 takeaways this season including playoffs which is average but 18 of those takeaways happened in their last 8 games while the Falcons have 24 takeaways on the year but 14 of those in their last 8 games. Turnovers will be key in this game and I think Green Bay's secondary will more likely intercept a pass from Matt Ryan than Rodgers against the Falcons secondary. It will be a big loss if Morgan Burnett does not play, but they still have Micah Hyde and Clinton-Dix making plays in the backfield. 

lastly, injuries will also be key to this game. 

for the Packers, they are more banged up than the Falcons are. We all know it is wishful thinking that Jordy Nelson can suit for this game. i do not expect him to play. Meanwhile it will be tough if the Packers do not have Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison or Morgan Burnett for this game. 

for the Falcons, they lost Adrian Clayborn for the season. Even though Vic Beasley is a one-man wrecking crew, the Falcons don't have enough pass rushing help and Clayborn out is a big loss. Julio Jones hurt his toe but I don't see him missing this game. i can't imagine him not being effective. i wonder how much the Falcons are going to miss Desmond Trufant for this game now that they are facing Rodgers again... 

going to wait for the injury report before deciding whether to add more units

final summary coming later.. 

ok the Bears defense may not be good i'll give you that, but it's halfway decent. obviously both of those teams did not do their defenses any favors with their pathetic offenses. sure the Packers schedule may seem like a cakewalk and you're saying the Falcons played a tougher schedule? and the Falcons played one more home game than the Packers did?