some thoughts on the Total of the Packers/Falcons...
never seen 60 set in a NFL playoff game or even in a regular season game... i think 56 or 57 is the highest total i've seen. this is like a college football total..
when both of these teams play fireworks are lit up
32-33 @ georgia dome earlier this year
37-43 @ lambeau on a Monday night( i remember that one. it was wet and rainy. Pack dominated but Falcons came back to moose the spread)
48-21 @ georgia dome. it was in the playoffs and the Pack went on to win a Super Bowl that year)
the game tends to go Over when these two teams meet year in year out.
this season the Falcons are 8-0 O/U at home which is kind of crazy. let's take a look at the final total for all 8 games...
TB - 57
CAR - 81
SD - 63
GB - 65
ARI - 57
KC - 57
SF - 54
NO - 70
4 of these games went over 60 pts.. 4 of the other games didn't
57 is the most common total in 3 games
the books set it at the right number. this game could very well go over 60, but i wonder how much of the injuries will play a factor in the total. GB wide recievers are banged up, and Julio is not 100%. i probably wouldn't be shocked if this game had a final score of 30-27 and the total comes up short at 57. will both offenses play more of a time of possession battle to try to keep the other offense off the field? or will it not matter since both defenses aren't that great anyway? Will the only Atlanta home game to go Under will be this one?
for now i am leaning the Over.
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some thoughts on the Total of the Packers/Falcons...
never seen 60 set in a NFL playoff game or even in a regular season game... i think 56 or 57 is the highest total i've seen. this is like a college football total..
when both of these teams play fireworks are lit up
32-33 @ georgia dome earlier this year
37-43 @ lambeau on a Monday night( i remember that one. it was wet and rainy. Pack dominated but Falcons came back to moose the spread)
48-21 @ georgia dome. it was in the playoffs and the Pack went on to win a Super Bowl that year)
the game tends to go Over when these two teams meet year in year out.
this season the Falcons are 8-0 O/U at home which is kind of crazy. let's take a look at the final total for all 8 games...
TB - 57
CAR - 81
SD - 63
GB - 65
ARI - 57
KC - 57
SF - 54
NO - 70
4 of these games went over 60 pts.. 4 of the other games didn't
57 is the most common total in 3 games
the books set it at the right number. this game could very well go over 60, but i wonder how much of the injuries will play a factor in the total. GB wide recievers are banged up, and Julio is not 100%. i probably wouldn't be shocked if this game had a final score of 30-27 and the total comes up short at 57. will both offenses play more of a time of possession battle to try to keep the other offense off the field? or will it not matter since both defenses aren't that great anyway? Will the only Atlanta home game to go Under will be this one?
all i know is the Pack have been scoring 30+ points a game for the last 6 games, and i just can't see them not continuing to do it again. the Falcons have given up 30+ pts in 6 games this season. the most the Falcons have given up in a game is 32, 33 pts.
i'm seeing scores of 34-31, 30-27, 31-28 or 34-28..
think the total will be closer than expected.
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all i know is the Pack have been scoring 30+ points a game for the last 6 games, and i just can't see them not continuing to do it again. the Falcons have given up 30+ pts in 6 games this season. the most the Falcons have given up in a game is 32, 33 pts.
i'm seeing scores of 34-31, 30-27, 31-28 or 34-28..
two good defenses especially in the redzone. i see a tough hard fought game with alot of Bell and Blount action. Winds in the neighborhood of 10 to 15 mph and a chance of rain later during the evening may affect the total. the Steelers play to the Under on the road because the offense doesn't play as well as they do at home and the defense has been solid lately. the last 6 conference championships with the Pats have gone Under 6 times, and the last 5 conference championships in Foxboro have gone Under. seeing 50.5 in some places and the total at my book has been a solid 51 throughout. grabbing just in case it goes down. i see a 27-23 final score.
Sip on that plus money honey!
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Playlist *updated*
Packers +5 *1u*
Packers +175 ML *1u*
Steelers/Patriots Under 51 *1u*
two good defenses especially in the redzone. i see a tough hard fought game with alot of Bell and Blount action. Winds in the neighborhood of 10 to 15 mph and a chance of rain later during the evening may affect the total. the Steelers play to the Under on the road because the offense doesn't play as well as they do at home and the defense has been solid lately. the last 6 conference championships with the Pats have gone Under 6 times, and the last 5 conference championships in Foxboro have gone Under. seeing 50.5 in some places and the total at my book has been a solid 51 throughout. grabbing just in case it goes down. i see a 27-23 final score.
two good defenses especially in the redzone. i see a tough hard fought game with alot of Bell and Blount action. Winds in the neighborhood of 10 to 15 mph and a chance of rain later during the evening may affect the total. the Steelers play to the Under on the road because the offense doesn't play as well as they do at home and the defense has been solid lately. the last 6 conference championships with the Pats have gone Under 6 times, and the last 5 conference championships in Foxboro have gone Under. seeing 50.5 in some places and the total at my book has been a solid 51 throughout. grabbing just in case it goes down. i see a 27-23 final score.
I'm no total guy but like the final score differential, either way. Nice write up, as always.
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Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:
Playlist *updated*
Packers +5 *1u*
Packers +175 ML *1u*
Steelers/Patriots Under 51 *1u*
two good defenses especially in the redzone. i see a tough hard fought game with alot of Bell and Blount action. Winds in the neighborhood of 10 to 15 mph and a chance of rain later during the evening may affect the total. the Steelers play to the Under on the road because the offense doesn't play as well as they do at home and the defense has been solid lately. the last 6 conference championships with the Pats have gone Under 6 times, and the last 5 conference championships in Foxboro have gone Under. seeing 50.5 in some places and the total at my book has been a solid 51 throughout. grabbing just in case it goes down. i see a 27-23 final score.
I'm no total guy but like the final score differential, either way. Nice write up, as always.
punching in my parlay for the Conference round. i'm not as confident about it as my "Last Stand" Divisional Round parlay, but during that time my leans for the Divisional round last Thursday were about the same as kickoff time so this is pretty much where i may be going with on my single bets.. waiting for a better number
DK's Conference Championship 4 teamer
Packers +5
Packers/Falcons Over 61
Steelers +6
Steelers/Patriots Under 51
+1100 *0.5u*
Sip on that plus money honey!
0
punching in my parlay for the Conference round. i'm not as confident about it as my "Last Stand" Divisional Round parlay, but during that time my leans for the Divisional round last Thursday were about the same as kickoff time so this is pretty much where i may be going with on my single bets.. waiting for a better number
Ryan beat which team by 50 pts? and which successful playoff QB are we talking about?
and make no mistake, Dak Prescott did much better than i thought he would in his first playoff game. he almost pulled off the comeback. but he has done this several times during the season so i guess it shouldn't be surprising. he's definitely got poise and he's only going to get better.
however it seems Dak's QBPR and avg per pass wasn't enough to help his team win the game.
i mean if you compare head to head stats, Rodgers had the better completion rate and more passing yards than Dak. the only difference was that Dak had one more TD than Rodgers, so yes Dak did outduel him in that aspect, but Aaron Rodgers managed the game better and was the better situational QB and knew what it took to extend the play to win the game. football really is a team sport and not just one man. The Packers were the more cohesive and disciplined team. Those penalties really killed Dallas..
i figure the Falcons will be much better at trying to not self-destruct like Dallas did at times.
QBPR..........................
Ryan 125
Wilson 75
Ryan better by 50 pts
Rodgers 97
Dak 103
Dak better by 6 pts
Defensive Passer Rating.........................
Dallas 24th
Seattle 9th
Rodgers outplayed by a rookie while Ryan layed a beat-down on a 2-time SB QB.
How is Rodgers hotter then Ryan ?
Your over-reacting to one play in the game and one game basically to call Rodgers hotter then Ryan
Right now Ryan is easily the better QB with the better overall team.
And it ain 't that close.
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Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:
Ryan beat which team by 50 pts? and which successful playoff QB are we talking about?
and make no mistake, Dak Prescott did much better than i thought he would in his first playoff game. he almost pulled off the comeback. but he has done this several times during the season so i guess it shouldn't be surprising. he's definitely got poise and he's only going to get better.
however it seems Dak's QBPR and avg per pass wasn't enough to help his team win the game.
i mean if you compare head to head stats, Rodgers had the better completion rate and more passing yards than Dak. the only difference was that Dak had one more TD than Rodgers, so yes Dak did outduel him in that aspect, but Aaron Rodgers managed the game better and was the better situational QB and knew what it took to extend the play to win the game. football really is a team sport and not just one man. The Packers were the more cohesive and disciplined team. Those penalties really killed Dallas..
i figure the Falcons will be much better at trying to not self-destruct like Dallas did at times.
QBPR..........................
Ryan 125
Wilson 75
Ryan better by 50 pts
Rodgers 97
Dak 103
Dak better by 6 pts
Defensive Passer Rating.........................
Dallas 24th
Seattle 9th
Rodgers outplayed by a rookie while Ryan layed a beat-down on a 2-time SB QB.
How is Rodgers hotter then Ryan ?
Your over-reacting to one play in the game and one game basically to call Rodgers hotter then Ryan
Right now Ryan is easily the better QB with the better overall team.
Rodgers outplayed by a rookie while Ryan layed a beat-down on a 2-time SB QB.
How is Rodgers hotter then Ryan ?
Your over-reacting to one play in the game and one game basically to call Rodgers hotter then Ryan
Right now Ryan is easily the better QB with the better overall team.
And it ain 't that close.
not really concerned with all that fluff. both QB's are hot. its all about team. sure the QB is the most important position in football but it still would not be possible for QB to be successful without the other 24 men on the field.
you cant deny the Packers are playing better as a team. the Seahawks were not, they were inconsistent all season but sometimes you could never tell. im pissed that i didnt know Sherman had an MCL injury. no wonder the secondary was even worse. losing Earl Thomas was bad enough already and Sherman went out there like Revis past his prime. You could also say the Cowboys werent quite as sharp in the 2nd half of the season but they still kept rolling. having the BYE week off probably did them more harm than good.
so yes its all about team not QB stats
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
QBPR..........................
Ryan 125
Wilson 75
Ryan better by 50 pts
Rodgers 97
Dak 103
Dak better by 6 pts
Defensive Passer Rating.........................
Dallas 24th
Seattle 9th
Rodgers outplayed by a rookie while Ryan layed a beat-down on a 2-time SB QB.
How is Rodgers hotter then Ryan ?
Your over-reacting to one play in the game and one game basically to call Rodgers hotter then Ryan
Right now Ryan is easily the better QB with the better overall team.
And it ain 't that close.
not really concerned with all that fluff. both QB's are hot. its all about team. sure the QB is the most important position in football but it still would not be possible for QB to be successful without the other 24 men on the field.
you cant deny the Packers are playing better as a team. the Seahawks were not, they were inconsistent all season but sometimes you could never tell. im pissed that i didnt know Sherman had an MCL injury. no wonder the secondary was even worse. losing Earl Thomas was bad enough already and Sherman went out there like Revis past his prime. You could also say the Cowboys werent quite as sharp in the 2nd half of the season but they still kept rolling. having the BYE week off probably did them more harm than good.
curiously Patriots to beat Packers is +500 so Packers have better chance to beat Patriots than Patriots beating Packers? and Steelers have better chance to beat Packers than Packers beating Zteelers. interesting odds to say the least. missed out on 30/1 for Packers vs Steelers during divisional round oh well. Will be interesting to see how this round unfolds
Sip on that plus money honey!
0
adding.
Steelers/Packers SB51 Exact finish +800
Packers/Steelers SB51 Exact finish +1000
Packers/Patriots SB51 Exact finish +450
*0.2u* each
curiously Patriots to beat Packers is +500 so Packers have better chance to beat Patriots than Patriots beating Packers? and Steelers have better chance to beat Packers than Packers beating Zteelers. interesting odds to say the least. missed out on 30/1 for Packers vs Steelers during divisional round oh well. Will be interesting to see how this round unfolds
will Brady's dominance continue against the Steelers? or will the Steelers defense finally grow up and become men instead of lost little boys?
thoughts on Steelers/Patriots
Yes we all know the stat.
Brady has over 3,000 yards, completing nearly 70% of his passes, 26 TDs and 3 INTs lifetime against the Steelers. He is 9-2 in 11 games against the Steelers including two postseason meetings which coincidentally were both AFC Championship games where he is 2-0 against the Steelers. both games were on the road. that is the 2nd highest QB rating he has put up against any team, and the other team that Brady has a better QBR against? the Atlanta Falcons.. but they only played each other 4 times and is not as impressive as what Brady has done to the Steelers..
If there is ever a time where i feel the term "coming full-circle" comes into play, then I think it could be this one.
Peyton Manning had his moment after being dominated by Brady early in his career, then he finally got over the hump, beat the Patriots and went on to win a Super Bowl. Ben Roethlisberger is in a similar position. The Steelers were the #1 team back in 2004. it was Ben's rookie year and they had a better defense than they do now. the Steelers soundly beated the Patriots by 2 TDs in the regular season in Ben's 1st career game vs Brady only to get the favor returned to them with a 2 TD loss in the AFC Championship to the Patriots that same year. Brady got his revenge. They would not meet in the playoffs again, that is, until now
12 years later..
the Steelers will meet the Patriots for the 3rd time in the AFC Championship for the right to go to the Super Bowl. In between those years, Ben became a champ in his own right as a 2-time Super Bowl champion as long as he never had to cross paths with the Patriots in the playoffs. Ben never really got over the hump vs Brady. He has only won one other career meeting since then.
The Steelers had a soul searching period after their last Super Bowl appearance. Brady still killed those Steelers team, but these Steelers are not as weak as they used to be. The role has been reversed. Steelers come in as the underdog now going into Foxboro for the first time as the visitor to play the Patriots in the AFC championship game. Unlike the first two meetings the road went through Pittsburgh and Brady was the underdog.
Does Ben Roethlisberger's career come full circle now?
...to be continued
Sip on that plus money honey!
0
will Brady's dominance continue against the Steelers? or will the Steelers defense finally grow up and become men instead of lost little boys?
thoughts on Steelers/Patriots
Yes we all know the stat.
Brady has over 3,000 yards, completing nearly 70% of his passes, 26 TDs and 3 INTs lifetime against the Steelers. He is 9-2 in 11 games against the Steelers including two postseason meetings which coincidentally were both AFC Championship games where he is 2-0 against the Steelers. both games were on the road. that is the 2nd highest QB rating he has put up against any team, and the other team that Brady has a better QBR against? the Atlanta Falcons.. but they only played each other 4 times and is not as impressive as what Brady has done to the Steelers..
If there is ever a time where i feel the term "coming full-circle" comes into play, then I think it could be this one.
Peyton Manning had his moment after being dominated by Brady early in his career, then he finally got over the hump, beat the Patriots and went on to win a Super Bowl. Ben Roethlisberger is in a similar position. The Steelers were the #1 team back in 2004. it was Ben's rookie year and they had a better defense than they do now. the Steelers soundly beated the Patriots by 2 TDs in the regular season in Ben's 1st career game vs Brady only to get the favor returned to them with a 2 TD loss in the AFC Championship to the Patriots that same year. Brady got his revenge. They would not meet in the playoffs again, that is, until now
12 years later..
the Steelers will meet the Patriots for the 3rd time in the AFC Championship for the right to go to the Super Bowl. In between those years, Ben became a champ in his own right as a 2-time Super Bowl champion as long as he never had to cross paths with the Patriots in the playoffs. Ben never really got over the hump vs Brady. He has only won one other career meeting since then.
The Steelers had a soul searching period after their last Super Bowl appearance. Brady still killed those Steelers team, but these Steelers are not as weak as they used to be. The role has been reversed. Steelers come in as the underdog now going into Foxboro for the first time as the visitor to play the Patriots in the AFC championship game. Unlike the first two meetings the road went through Pittsburgh and Brady was the underdog.
Does Ben Roethlisberger's career come full circle now?
playlist updated. the Pack finally goes 5.5 at my book. might go up to 6.. so half unit for now until it reaches 6.. and Steeler ML also goes up to +220.... but spread still 6.
Packers +5 *1u*
Packers +5.5 *0.5u*
Packers +175 ML *1u*
Packers +190 ML *0.5u*
Steelers/Patriots Under 51 *1u*
Steelers +6 *1u*
DK's Conference Championship 4 teamer
Packers +5
Packers/Falcons Over 61
Steelers +6
Steelers/Patriots Under 51
+1100 *0.5u*
and...
going to add my plays from my Midseason Futures thread here
Steelers +1800 to win SB51 *0.25u*
(made on Oct. 26 during the Roethlisberger injury before playing Ravens)
Steelers +450 to win SB51 *0.25u*
Packers +1000 to win SB51 *0.25u*
(made on Christmas day, during Packers hotstreak, kicking myself for not taking them when they lost 4 in a row.. heard they were up to +8000..)
Packers +400 to win SB51 *0.25u*
Steelers/Packers SB51 Exact finish +800
Packers/Steelers SB51 Exact finish +1000
Packers/Patriots SB51 Exact finish +450
*0.2u* each
Sip on that plus money honey!
0
playlist updated. the Pack finally goes 5.5 at my book. might go up to 6.. so half unit for now until it reaches 6.. and Steeler ML also goes up to +220.... but spread still 6.
Packers +5 *1u*
Packers +5.5 *0.5u*
Packers +175 ML *1u*
Packers +190 ML *0.5u*
Steelers/Patriots Under 51 *1u*
Steelers +6 *1u*
DK's Conference Championship 4 teamer
Packers +5
Packers/Falcons Over 61
Steelers +6
Steelers/Patriots Under 51
+1100 *0.5u*
and...
going to add my plays from my Midseason Futures thread here
Steelers +1800 to win SB51 *0.25u*
(made on Oct. 26 during the Roethlisberger injury before playing Ravens)
Steelers +450 to win SB51 *0.25u*
Packers +1000 to win SB51 *0.25u*
(made on Christmas day, during Packers hotstreak, kicking myself for not taking them when they lost 4 in a row.. heard they were up to +8000..)
One thing you beat Tom Brady is rattling, batting and sacking him in the pocket with strong pass rush with front four. If Steelers can do it frequently, they can cover the spread or even win this game, Ravens have proved it three times, and NY Jets once in the playoffs at Gillette Stadium.
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One thing you beat Tom Brady is rattling, batting and sacking him in the pocket with strong pass rush with front four. If Steelers can do it frequently, they can cover the spread or even win this game, Ravens have proved it three times, and NY Jets once in the playoffs at Gillette Stadium.
One thing you beat Tom Brady is rattling, batting and sacking him in the pocket with strong pass rush with front four. If Steelers can do it frequently, they can cover the spread or even win this game, Ravens have proved it three times, and NY Jets once in the playoffs at Gillette Stadium.
i'll get to that bit with the 2nd part of my write-up soon.
Sip on that plus money honey!
0
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:
One thing you beat Tom Brady is rattling, batting and sacking him in the pocket with strong pass rush with front four. If Steelers can do it frequently, they can cover the spread or even win this game, Ravens have proved it three times, and NY Jets once in the playoffs at Gillette Stadium.
i'll get to that bit with the 2nd part of my write-up soon.
The only one I disagree with is the falcons over. But you very well could easily win that one.
Was shocked to see how high the total was. You never see over 60 in an NFL game.
same. was kind of in awe at that total. i don't think its going to be as easy as some people think though but there's probably going to be more passing than there will be running, in a perfect dome environment on turf. neither team is good in the redzone especially the Falcons where they let teams score in 90% of their trips in there. might be just enough scoring to get this game Over.
BOL
Sip on that plus money honey!
0
Quote Originally Posted by plays4all:
Fantastic plays Dig!
The only one I disagree with is the falcons over. But you very well could easily win that one.
Was shocked to see how high the total was. You never see over 60 in an NFL game.
same. was kind of in awe at that total. i don't think its going to be as easy as some people think though but there's probably going to be more passing than there will be running, in a perfect dome environment on turf. neither team is good in the redzone especially the Falcons where they let teams score in 90% of their trips in there. might be just enough scoring to get this game Over.
Rodgers was outplayed by the rookie? God that is such a bunch of horse crap. So when then game was playing out and Rodgers led GB to a 21-3 lead and essentially did whatever he wanted we are just supposed to ignore that? GB goes into a classic prevent defense and the cowboys exploit the soft coverage of a team with a huge lead and put up some stats. Big deal. When push came to shove and the game was in doubt, Rodgers came away with a road W. So the rook put up some points playing vs a soft prevent defense. So what? Rodgers is going to continue the roll tomorrow and there will be even more converts lining up to sign his praises by this time Sunday evening.
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Rodgers was outplayed by the rookie? God that is such a bunch of horse crap. So when then game was playing out and Rodgers led GB to a 21-3 lead and essentially did whatever he wanted we are just supposed to ignore that? GB goes into a classic prevent defense and the cowboys exploit the soft coverage of a team with a huge lead and put up some stats. Big deal. When push came to shove and the game was in doubt, Rodgers came away with a road W. So the rook put up some points playing vs a soft prevent defense. So what? Rodgers is going to continue the roll tomorrow and there will be even more converts lining up to sign his praises by this time Sunday evening.
Nice write-ups DK, there's a lot of chaff to separate from the wheat in the two match ups on Sunday and I'll start with the GB / ATL game. To me, the best pure bet of this game is going to be the over IMHO. The amount of points scored by these two teams is astounding and from what I've seen recently, it ain't gonna end this Sunday. As a matter of fact, it could be close to the total by halftime. As far as the side goes, while I give Ryan and company props for the way they have played this year and their home win against the Sea-Chickens, "Matty Ice" has not proven himself in the depths of the playoffs to my satisfaction which is why I'm taking the Packers and the 6. The spread opened at 4.5 at most services and now it's at a few 5.5s and mostly 6s across the board. a lot of this is public $ on Atlanta, but also the injuries to the GB receivers. The problem is, AR can make passes to the water boy and still win, he's just that good a QB and has the track record to prove it. I see a high scoring tit for tat scoring game and the last team to successfully score in the end will probably win. Atlanta obviously can win the game by more than 6, but I'm taking the "Magic Man" and his stout playoff record over the Falcons one and done philosophy in the past. GB +6 / O 61 As for the Steelers / Pats game, I see a slugfest low scoring "in your face" approach, each team concentrating on playing mistake free football and controlling the clock. NE has had Pittsburgh's # in the playoffs over the years, so my guess is they win SU, but fail to cover the 6 points. The total at 51 is high for this match-up to me and so my play is the Under. Out of the last 11 playoff games between these 2 teams, the O/U is 9-2, with the last 3 going over the total (so much for following the trends right?) Steelers +6 / U 51 GL Amigo
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Nice write-ups DK, there's a lot of chaff to separate from the wheat in the two match ups on Sunday and I'll start with the GB / ATL game. To me, the best pure bet of this game is going to be the over IMHO. The amount of points scored by these two teams is astounding and from what I've seen recently, it ain't gonna end this Sunday. As a matter of fact, it could be close to the total by halftime. As far as the side goes, while I give Ryan and company props for the way they have played this year and their home win against the Sea-Chickens, "Matty Ice" has not proven himself in the depths of the playoffs to my satisfaction which is why I'm taking the Packers and the 6. The spread opened at 4.5 at most services and now it's at a few 5.5s and mostly 6s across the board. a lot of this is public $ on Atlanta, but also the injuries to the GB receivers. The problem is, AR can make passes to the water boy and still win, he's just that good a QB and has the track record to prove it. I see a high scoring tit for tat scoring game and the last team to successfully score in the end will probably win. Atlanta obviously can win the game by more than 6, but I'm taking the "Magic Man" and his stout playoff record over the Falcons one and done philosophy in the past. GB +6 / O 61 As for the Steelers / Pats game, I see a slugfest low scoring "in your face" approach, each team concentrating on playing mistake free football and controlling the clock. NE has had Pittsburgh's # in the playoffs over the years, so my guess is they win SU, but fail to cover the 6 points. The total at 51 is high for this match-up to me and so my play is the Under. Out of the last 11 playoff games between these 2 teams, the O/U is 9-2, with the last 3 going over the total (so much for following the trends right?) Steelers +6 / U 51 GL Amigo
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