This is the most intriguing matchup in the divisional round in my opinion since the other three games are same season rematches. Last time these two teams met was on a snowy Lambeau Field two years ago in the divisional round on January 21st. The Packers were less than 5 minutes away from winning that game but were snatched by the jaws of defeat with one of the worst special teams blunders of all time.
Fast forward to this week. The 49ers will need to refamiliarize themselves again with their playoff rival. This will be their first time going against Jordan Love and all these new recievers. Packers special teams unit also has been overhauled too. The only unit from the Packers that has remained mostly intact from that last meeting is their defense. Some players may be familiar with Christian McCaffrey from his Panthers days but for those who aren't they will certainly have their hands full come Saturday.
(To be continued...)
Sip on that plus money honey!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
This is the most intriguing matchup in the divisional round in my opinion since the other three games are same season rematches. Last time these two teams met was on a snowy Lambeau Field two years ago in the divisional round on January 21st. The Packers were less than 5 minutes away from winning that game but were snatched by the jaws of defeat with one of the worst special teams blunders of all time.
Fast forward to this week. The 49ers will need to refamiliarize themselves again with their playoff rival. This will be their first time going against Jordan Love and all these new recievers. Packers special teams unit also has been overhauled too. The only unit from the Packers that has remained mostly intact from that last meeting is their defense. Some players may be familiar with Christian McCaffrey from his Panthers days but for those who aren't they will certainly have their hands full come Saturday.
Christian McCaffrey will get his yards no matter which opponent he faces but he should have an easier time against the Packers defense which is allowing 4.4 ypc. The Packers allow their opponents to move between the sticks as they're one of the worst 3rd down defenses in the league. Surprisingly they're not near the bottom in yards allowed but they stiffen up when they get into the red area currently ranked #10 in redzone defense. However they haven't faced many good redzone offenses outside the Lions and the Niners happen to be the best of them.
For the Packers, Aaron Jones will need to play a big part in their offense once again. It may be difficult for Jones to run on the Niners defense unlike versus Dallas whose defense struggled against the run when they lost Hankins. What Packers will need to do instead is make Aaron Jones in integral part of the passing game. Niners allow the 8th most receiving yards to running backs. There's potential for the Packers to move the ball against the Niners defense as they're similarly a bend but do not break defense. Where the Niners have thrived defensively is getting pressure on opposing QBs and forcing them into making mistakes. Niners defense led the league in interceptions and 5th most takeaways overall. Jordan Love has shown a lot of poised for a first year starter and not making too many mistakes.
(Final thoughts to be continued..)
Sip on that plus money honey!
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Christian McCaffrey will get his yards no matter which opponent he faces but he should have an easier time against the Packers defense which is allowing 4.4 ypc. The Packers allow their opponents to move between the sticks as they're one of the worst 3rd down defenses in the league. Surprisingly they're not near the bottom in yards allowed but they stiffen up when they get into the red area currently ranked #10 in redzone defense. However they haven't faced many good redzone offenses outside the Lions and the Niners happen to be the best of them.
For the Packers, Aaron Jones will need to play a big part in their offense once again. It may be difficult for Jones to run on the Niners defense unlike versus Dallas whose defense struggled against the run when they lost Hankins. What Packers will need to do instead is make Aaron Jones in integral part of the passing game. Niners allow the 8th most receiving yards to running backs. There's potential for the Packers to move the ball against the Niners defense as they're similarly a bend but do not break defense. Where the Niners have thrived defensively is getting pressure on opposing QBs and forcing them into making mistakes. Niners defense led the league in interceptions and 5th most takeaways overall. Jordan Love has shown a lot of poised for a first year starter and not making too many mistakes.
49ers are clearly the better team no doubt as the regular season has shown. Statistically they match up well against the Packers. That being said , and I may end up getting killed again for this but if you present to me a motivational and situational spot that is appealing to me then I'll be willing to eschew the stats and go against logic. Going with my gut here and taking the Packers in this spot.
Before I get into the weather conditions, Kyle Shanahan is 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS after a bye week but I don't really count his first two seasons in San Fran when he didn't have much of a team so 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS. Last time they had a bye week in the playoffs they did curb stomp the Vikings at home however. For an offensive genius such as Shanahan I find the ATS record a bit underwhelming in my opinion. Am I saying his team won't be fully prepared this week? No, but just keep it in mind..
So the weather calls for light intermittent rain showers and a bit of wind. It's hard to say how these QBs have performed in wet conditions with very little sample size although Brock Purdy had one such experience against the Seahawks in the playoffs last season and again proceeded to curb stomp them. I'd like to think this Packers team is a couple steps better.
For the clear and obvious reason I am taking the Pack here is they'll come into Levi Stadium playing loose with a chance to play spoiler role with the 2022 playoff game in mind. The Packer defense for one will still remember it. Matt LeFleur remembers and Jordan Love too even though he was on the bench which probably didn't affect him too much.
It's hard to say if this version of the Packers bears any resemblance to the 2010 Packers that won the Super Bowl as the #6 seed. One can point out some of the similarities of Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers. If they can manage to do the unthinkable then they'll have a good shot to be the first ever #7 seed to go to the Super Bowl.
Packers +9.5
Packers ML +380 *small*
Sip on that plus money honey!
3
Verdict
49ers are clearly the better team no doubt as the regular season has shown. Statistically they match up well against the Packers. That being said , and I may end up getting killed again for this but if you present to me a motivational and situational spot that is appealing to me then I'll be willing to eschew the stats and go against logic. Going with my gut here and taking the Packers in this spot.
Before I get into the weather conditions, Kyle Shanahan is 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS after a bye week but I don't really count his first two seasons in San Fran when he didn't have much of a team so 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS. Last time they had a bye week in the playoffs they did curb stomp the Vikings at home however. For an offensive genius such as Shanahan I find the ATS record a bit underwhelming in my opinion. Am I saying his team won't be fully prepared this week? No, but just keep it in mind..
So the weather calls for light intermittent rain showers and a bit of wind. It's hard to say how these QBs have performed in wet conditions with very little sample size although Brock Purdy had one such experience against the Seahawks in the playoffs last season and again proceeded to curb stomp them. I'd like to think this Packers team is a couple steps better.
For the clear and obvious reason I am taking the Pack here is they'll come into Levi Stadium playing loose with a chance to play spoiler role with the 2022 playoff game in mind. The Packer defense for one will still remember it. Matt LeFleur remembers and Jordan Love too even though he was on the bench which probably didn't affect him too much.
It's hard to say if this version of the Packers bears any resemblance to the 2010 Packers that won the Super Bowl as the #6 seed. One can point out some of the similarities of Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers. If they can manage to do the unthinkable then they'll have a good shot to be the first ever #7 seed to go to the Super Bowl.
No issue taking the 9.5/10 with Pack....Niners might show a little rust, CMC was supposed to return to practice today so he should be good to go even if a little dinged up.
I find it hard to imagine a scenario where this team goes to the Super Bowl like 2010 team though, this version of the Packers does not have any defense resembling 2010. Niners have a dominant defense, #4 overall dvoa....Packers all the way down at #27. Future HOF QB ?? IDK yet about Love like I did early with ARod, Rodgers had the "it factor" when you watched him spin it back then. Love has been playing on fire and if I'm a Packers fan I can't complain but I don't see a future multiple MVP when I watch him play....may be wrong years from now.
Yes they are the big dog and that is nice motivation.....what else is nice motivation is the way the Niners season ended last year going out like 'lil beetches up in Philly. Every person & player in the organization remembers that beat down. Would be hard pressed to believe they won't show up ready for the magnitude of the situation.
GL on the weekend DK
Time is a flat circle
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No issue taking the 9.5/10 with Pack....Niners might show a little rust, CMC was supposed to return to practice today so he should be good to go even if a little dinged up.
I find it hard to imagine a scenario where this team goes to the Super Bowl like 2010 team though, this version of the Packers does not have any defense resembling 2010. Niners have a dominant defense, #4 overall dvoa....Packers all the way down at #27. Future HOF QB ?? IDK yet about Love like I did early with ARod, Rodgers had the "it factor" when you watched him spin it back then. Love has been playing on fire and if I'm a Packers fan I can't complain but I don't see a future multiple MVP when I watch him play....may be wrong years from now.
Yes they are the big dog and that is nice motivation.....what else is nice motivation is the way the Niners season ended last year going out like 'lil beetches up in Philly. Every person & player in the organization remembers that beat down. Would be hard pressed to believe they won't show up ready for the magnitude of the situation.
Thanks for chiming in, great points as always. that 2010 Packers played a tougher schedule and were much better defensively. This year's Packers haven't really faced many good teams imo but if they do somehow manage to beat the Niners that will be the biggest obstacle out of the way. could see things become more favorable against the Bucs or Lions if they can overcome 3 straight road games which is very tough to do not sure if they have the horses defensively. Hard to say but anything goes in an elimination tournament they will certainly need a lot of luck
Sip on that plus money honey!
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@kcblitzkrieg
Thanks for chiming in, great points as always. that 2010 Packers played a tougher schedule and were much better defensively. This year's Packers haven't really faced many good teams imo but if they do somehow manage to beat the Niners that will be the biggest obstacle out of the way. could see things become more favorable against the Bucs or Lions if they can overcome 3 straight road games which is very tough to do not sure if they have the horses defensively. Hard to say but anything goes in an elimination tournament they will certainly need a lot of luck
Quote Originally Posted by PepeFrog: When Aaron Rodgers was a Packers. Rodgers has the most losses at the NFC championship. This cursed trend could start with Jordan Love. He also had dipshit McCarty as his head coach for the vast majority of them. Not saying LeFluer is a god but saying he is a marketable improvement.
rodgers is 0-2 with lefluer in the playoffs, 0-4 vs the niners in the playoffs overall
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Quote Originally Posted by jesron1269:
Quote Originally Posted by PepeFrog: When Aaron Rodgers was a Packers. Rodgers has the most losses at the NFC championship. This cursed trend could start with Jordan Love. He also had dipshit McCarty as his head coach for the vast majority of them. Not saying LeFluer is a god but saying he is a marketable improvement.
rodgers is 0-2 with lefluer in the playoffs, 0-4 vs the niners in the playoffs overall
I like the Packers. Actually as a fan I'm scared to watch this one as I could easily see them get overwhelmed. But I like all four road teams to cover, which goes against all historical data.
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I like the Packers. Actually as a fan I'm scared to watch this one as I could easily see them get overwhelmed. But I like all four road teams to cover, which goes against all historical data.
For DK: This query covers both HOU and GB and says to fade them both. The small sample size certainly limits the confidence, but the SU and ATS margins are tempting.
PO = 1 and p:points > 39.5 and AD and line > 5.7
SU: 0-8-0 (-16.38, 0.0%)
ATS: 2-6-0 (-8.31, 25.0%)
Playoff road dogs (AD = Away Dog) of at least 6 points that scored 40+ points in the previous game are 0-8 SU (avg losing margin is over 16 points) and 2-6 ATS (avg ATS losing margin is over 8 points).
Good luck everybody.
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For DK: This query covers both HOU and GB and says to fade them both. The small sample size certainly limits the confidence, but the SU and ATS margins are tempting.
PO = 1 and p:points > 39.5 and AD and line > 5.7
SU: 0-8-0 (-16.38, 0.0%)
ATS: 2-6-0 (-8.31, 25.0%)
Playoff road dogs (AD = Away Dog) of at least 6 points that scored 40+ points in the previous game are 0-8 SU (avg losing margin is over 16 points) and 2-6 ATS (avg ATS losing margin is over 8 points).
an away dog of greater than 6 points in the playoffs, having played at least one playoff game their previous game, playing an opponent who has a positive average scoring margin (offense minus defense) of at least 11 points per game.
a) 4-0 ATS if their opponent played in the playoffs last week
b) 9-4 ATS if their opponent is off a bye......Texans, Packers
Of these qualifying teams, an away dog of greater than 6 points who played a playoff game last week and won on the road has been 9-1 ATS (Packers) and a team that won at home has been 5-3 ATS (Texans).
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@DogbiteWilliams
Although I just saw that Indigo999 posted this:
an away dog of greater than 6 points in the playoffs, having played at least one playoff game their previous game, playing an opponent who has a positive average scoring margin (offense minus defense) of at least 11 points per game.
a) 4-0 ATS if their opponent played in the playoffs last week
b) 9-4 ATS if their opponent is off a bye......Texans, Packers
Of these qualifying teams, an away dog of greater than 6 points who played a playoff game last week and won on the road has been 9-1 ATS (Packers) and a team that won at home has been 5-3 ATS (Texans).
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GL Dig!
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