Why do i like Over?
I was torn on the total. Maybe i am on the wrong side here.. Usually two teams that can play defense and run the ball is a recipe for an Under. Also, the grass field at Levi stadium is notoriously hard to play on and the possible rainy weather conditions were a factor to consider as well. I leaned Under for a whole week but now here is why i think this game could go Over...
1.) This is the Super Bowl!
This is the biggest stage. Emotions are high, game is on the line. Every call, every play, every mishap will be magnified. Both teams are not used to playing each other so it'll be a feeling out process until someone starts to turn on the jets and go! Pressure is on. Teams will do whatever it takes to win. Points will be scored sometimes in ways you wouldnt imagine..
Call it a prediction. I think there's a chance we may see a Special Teams or defensive score that will factor into the total. Turnovers that will give shorter fields for the offense to put up points. Both of these defenses are definitely capable doing just that! 5 of the last 7 Super Bowls have had some Kick return score or interception return for a touchdown and also 9 of the last 16 games since 2000.
2. ) Super Bowl's in Sunny California
Makes me curious why the Over is 9-1 or make it 10-1 when the Super Bowl is played in California. Super Bowl 1 was played here but couldnt find a total for that game but 45 points were scored and im sure they didnt set totals that high back in the day. Could it be the sun? Warmer temperatures? I'd like to think so. The forecast looks like it will hold up. It'll be 70-72 degrees, sunny with a slight cool breeze of 5 mph in Santa Clara.
3.) Battle of #1 Offense vs #1 Defense
Some of the highest scoring totals while as lopsided as they may be, featured #1 offense vs #1 defense. Seahawks vs Broncos comes to mind, 49ers vs Dolphins. The Over has an advantage. Ive counted 5-2 in favor of the Over. Also looked at #1 offense against teams not quite #1 and still see about 7-6 in favor of Over.
#4 ) The Panthers are 12-5-1 on the O/U
The Panthers score points quickly and their defense lets their opponents play catchup while Carolina keeps scoring more points. This was evident against their two playoff opponents . The Over is 5-3 away from Charlotte. Meanwhile the Broncos are 4-4 away from Denver and 2-7-1 at home.
#5.) The Grass field at Levi's Stadium
While it is true that the field here really sucks. The grass is so bad that Justin Tucker of the Ravens slipped trying to kick a field goal here. Only two teams have scored more than 20 pts on this field. The O/U is 1-7 here but thats because the 49ers are plain bad on offense they cant contribute much to the total. There have been only one game that went over 40 pts, the rest are as follows: 23, 20, 23, 32, 33, 38, 35. . But i just cant see this being a 30 pt game in the Super Bowl. The field has been replaced with newer supposedly stronger grass specifically made for the heavy traffic of hosting the Super Bowl we shall see.
Im seeing scores of 23-20, 24-20, 21-24 its possible this game will go Under but i also see scores of 26-23, 27-23, 27-21, 27-20.