Final Write-upSuper Bowl 50 is still three long days away. I've exhaustedly combed through nearly every stat, angle, trend and have used history as my guide more than ever. The old phrase "history repeats itself" and "defense wins championships" should never be overlooked.
Thought I'd share a little story since it might be related. My first NFL betting journey all started 2010 in Super Bowl 44 when I took my first bet. I was going against Peyton Manning and taking Saints +5! I actually wanted to take ML, but didn't know how to tell my bookie I wanted ML. I told him,"gimme the Saints!" and thought he knew what I meant. What I got instead on my ticket was the spread. Didn't know much about how spreads worked or difference between spread and ML. I was just a casual bettor then and didnt know all of the intricacies of football betting like i do now.
I rooted for the Saints because of the Katrina storyline, but they were also a good football team and offense was fun to watch. This 2015 Panthers team kind of reminds me of the 2009 Saints. They put up alot of points and let their defense create turnovers. That may be bad news for Peyton Manning having to face another good young defense yet again...
Oddly enough, or be it a twist of fate. Six years after going against Manning in SB44, I will be rooting for Manning this time in SB50. Let it be known that I did pick the Broncos against the Seahawks and it was the worst Super Bowl bet ever so why am I backing him again??
Peyton Manning is no longer in his prime and is posting the worst stats of his career. The 1998 rookie version of Manning would put this year's version to shame! Everyone is talking down to Peyton like he has nothing left in the tank, thus the sports media has officially dubbed him a has-been, a relic, or "the worst starting QB to ever play the Super Bowl" and consequently will be playing as an underdog for the first time in his career in the Super Bowl.. but you know what? I like that!
(But here is a little history lesson for you if anyone cares to listen.. Manning's 67.9 passer rating may be among the worst, but did you also know? that Bart Starr, Len Dawson, Johnny Unitas and Terry Bradshaw also had below 70 passer ratings at 64.4, 69.9, 65.1 and 55.1 respectively? guess what they all went on to win the Super Bowl that season. That is pretty good company to be in if Manning were to win. There were also 2 Super Bowl QB's that lost. Vince Ferragamo has the lowest rating for a Super Bowl QB at 49.0 and the L.A. Rams lost in SB14. David Woodley of the Miami Dolphins posted a 63.5 rating and lost in SB17 to the Redskins. Woodley was the last QB to post below 70 passer rating until Manning in SB50.)
TO BE CONTINUED
Sip on that plus money honey!
0
Final Write-upSuper Bowl 50 is still three long days away. I've exhaustedly combed through nearly every stat, angle, trend and have used history as my guide more than ever. The old phrase "history repeats itself" and "defense wins championships" should never be overlooked.
Thought I'd share a little story since it might be related. My first NFL betting journey all started 2010 in Super Bowl 44 when I took my first bet. I was going against Peyton Manning and taking Saints +5! I actually wanted to take ML, but didn't know how to tell my bookie I wanted ML. I told him,"gimme the Saints!" and thought he knew what I meant. What I got instead on my ticket was the spread. Didn't know much about how spreads worked or difference between spread and ML. I was just a casual bettor then and didnt know all of the intricacies of football betting like i do now.
I rooted for the Saints because of the Katrina storyline, but they were also a good football team and offense was fun to watch. This 2015 Panthers team kind of reminds me of the 2009 Saints. They put up alot of points and let their defense create turnovers. That may be bad news for Peyton Manning having to face another good young defense yet again...
Oddly enough, or be it a twist of fate. Six years after going against Manning in SB44, I will be rooting for Manning this time in SB50. Let it be known that I did pick the Broncos against the Seahawks and it was the worst Super Bowl bet ever so why am I backing him again??
Peyton Manning is no longer in his prime and is posting the worst stats of his career. The 1998 rookie version of Manning would put this year's version to shame! Everyone is talking down to Peyton like he has nothing left in the tank, thus the sports media has officially dubbed him a has-been, a relic, or "the worst starting QB to ever play the Super Bowl" and consequently will be playing as an underdog for the first time in his career in the Super Bowl.. but you know what? I like that!
(But here is a little history lesson for you if anyone cares to listen.. Manning's 67.9 passer rating may be among the worst, but did you also know? that Bart Starr, Len Dawson, Johnny Unitas and Terry Bradshaw also had below 70 passer ratings at 64.4, 69.9, 65.1 and 55.1 respectively? guess what they all went on to win the Super Bowl that season. That is pretty good company to be in if Manning were to win. There were also 2 Super Bowl QB's that lost. Vince Ferragamo has the lowest rating for a Super Bowl QB at 49.0 and the L.A. Rams lost in SB14. David Woodley of the Miami Dolphins posted a 63.5 rating and lost in SB17 to the Redskins. Woodley was the last QB to post below 70 passer rating until Manning in SB50.)
Since 2005, Manning is 12-12 SU and 15-9 ATS as an underdog. In the playoffs, Manning is 13-13 SU and 11-14-1 ATS in his playoff career where in 5 of those games he was 3-2 SUATS as an underdog. For his entire career he is 26-36 SU and 35-26-1 ATS as a dog.
But lets put all the quarterback talk aside for a bit because this is after all, a team sport. A season defines who your team is about. For the 2015 Denver Broncos I have seen: grit, hard-work, humbleness, luck, perseverance and resiliency through doubt and adversity all season. I've seen these traits before in other Super Bowl calibur teams.. '95 Cowboys, '05 Steelers, '97 Broncos, '07 Giants. They all had promising starts, midseason struggles, then all of a sudden get hot at the end. Not saying the Carolina Panthers dont have some of these traits too but definitely leave out humble and replace it with a bit of cockiness.
Much to their credit though, the Panthers have proved everybody wrong. The disrespect card had already been pulled out way before the season began. Last year they were labeled the team with the worst record to ever start the playoffs but turned it around with one of the best regular season records ever and a trip to the Super Bowl. Some naysayers were still calling the Panthers the worst 11-0 team despite their success. Part of the problem is they haven't had consistent winning seasons to put them in higher regard, but man give it a rest already. They deserve to be here.
Unlike the Panthers, expectations are always high in Denver. When Peyton Manning joined the Broncos, the sense of urgency to bring another championship was now! After three straight seasons of disappointment and coming up short, the pressures of being "great" took it's toll. John Fox was fired. the offense had disintegrated and Peyton Manning for the first time looked mortal last season. The critics who used to sing high praises about the Broncos in the past have now turned against them. Nobody thought the Broncos would get far with Gary Kubiak at the helm. The disrespect card runs deeper here..
https://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000501495/article/broncos-secondary-offended-by-top-100-snubs
https://blogs.denverpost.com/broncos/2015/07/13/t-j-ward-aqib-talib-not-happy-about-nfl-top-100-omissions/34505/
Little did they know that the Broncos were quietly building something special on defense. I saw the way they played against my Ravens in week 1 and remembered reading this article couple months before the season started. It seemed pretty clear that the Broncos defense were on a mission to not be the soft defense of the past
TO BE CONTINUED
Sip on that plus money honey!
0
Final Write-up pt.II
Since 2005, Manning is 12-12 SU and 15-9 ATS as an underdog. In the playoffs, Manning is 13-13 SU and 11-14-1 ATS in his playoff career where in 5 of those games he was 3-2 SUATS as an underdog. For his entire career he is 26-36 SU and 35-26-1 ATS as a dog.
But lets put all the quarterback talk aside for a bit because this is after all, a team sport. A season defines who your team is about. For the 2015 Denver Broncos I have seen: grit, hard-work, humbleness, luck, perseverance and resiliency through doubt and adversity all season. I've seen these traits before in other Super Bowl calibur teams.. '95 Cowboys, '05 Steelers, '97 Broncos, '07 Giants. They all had promising starts, midseason struggles, then all of a sudden get hot at the end. Not saying the Carolina Panthers dont have some of these traits too but definitely leave out humble and replace it with a bit of cockiness.
Much to their credit though, the Panthers have proved everybody wrong. The disrespect card had already been pulled out way before the season began. Last year they were labeled the team with the worst record to ever start the playoffs but turned it around with one of the best regular season records ever and a trip to the Super Bowl. Some naysayers were still calling the Panthers the worst 11-0 team despite their success. Part of the problem is they haven't had consistent winning seasons to put them in higher regard, but man give it a rest already. They deserve to be here.
Unlike the Panthers, expectations are always high in Denver. When Peyton Manning joined the Broncos, the sense of urgency to bring another championship was now! After three straight seasons of disappointment and coming up short, the pressures of being "great" took it's toll. John Fox was fired. the offense had disintegrated and Peyton Manning for the first time looked mortal last season. The critics who used to sing high praises about the Broncos in the past have now turned against them. Nobody thought the Broncos would get far with Gary Kubiak at the helm. The disrespect card runs deeper here..
https://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000501495/article/broncos-secondary-offended-by-top-100-snubs
https://blogs.denverpost.com/broncos/2015/07/13/t-j-ward-aqib-talib-not-happy-about-nfl-top-100-omissions/34505/
Little did they know that the Broncos were quietly building something special on defense. I saw the way they played against my Ravens in week 1 and remembered reading this article couple months before the season started. It seemed pretty clear that the Broncos defense were on a mission to not be the soft defense of the past
Both teams have used the disrespect label as fuel all season long to propel themselves to greatness. In hindsight it should come as no surprise that these two were destined to be in the Super Bowl. But there can be only one winner..
Give me the team that has been more battle-hardened, battle-tested and have dealt with adversity all season long. Give me a team that knows how to win when the game is on the line. Give me the quarterback who has nothing left in his arm and gets to play the role of underdog spoiler for the first time in the Super Bowl.
If Manning doesn't win his second ring, then it wasn't due to a lack of trying. At least I think the Sheriff and that tough-as-nails Denver defense won't go down without a fight and it'll be close!
Final Score:
Denver -27 Carolina - 23
Sip on that plus money honey!
0
Conclusion
Both teams have used the disrespect label as fuel all season long to propel themselves to greatness. In hindsight it should come as no surprise that these two were destined to be in the Super Bowl. But there can be only one winner..
Give me the team that has been more battle-hardened, battle-tested and have dealt with adversity all season long. Give me a team that knows how to win when the game is on the line. Give me the quarterback who has nothing left in his arm and gets to play the role of underdog spoiler for the first time in the Super Bowl.
If Manning doesn't win his second ring, then it wasn't due to a lack of trying. At least I think the Sheriff and that tough-as-nails Denver defense won't go down without a fight and it'll be close!
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
