This is going to be one ugly ass game with two ugly duckling teams and ugly ass weather. As far as how this game might conclude? It could probably be an ugly close finish or an ugly beatdown. This will all depend on how ugly Josh Allen is feeling on Sunday.
The first question you'll want to ask yourself is. Can you take the Bills as a double digit favorite despite the advantages of being at home going against a backup QB making his first playoff start? Let's look at how the Bills have done since Josh Allen came to prominence in 2020. Through 2020 and 2021, the Bills were 8-1 SU, 5-2-2 ATS(depending what line you get) but since losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game? Bills are 10-1 SU, and 2-9 ATS as a double digit fave. The Bills haven't covered in 9 straight games as double digit faves. The last time that happened? they beat this same Steelers team as a 14 pt favorite back in October 2022. I know right but dont get any funny ideas yet.
This is going to be one ugly ass game with two ugly duckling teams and ugly ass weather. As far as how this game might conclude? It could probably be an ugly close finish or an ugly beatdown. This will all depend on how ugly Josh Allen is feeling on Sunday.
The first question you'll want to ask yourself is. Can you take the Bills as a double digit favorite despite the advantages of being at home going against a backup QB making his first playoff start? Let's look at how the Bills have done since Josh Allen came to prominence in 2020. Through 2020 and 2021, the Bills were 8-1 SU, 5-2-2 ATS(depending what line you get) but since losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game? Bills are 10-1 SU, and 2-9 ATS as a double digit fave. The Bills haven't covered in 9 straight games as double digit faves. The last time that happened? they beat this same Steelers team as a 14 pt favorite back in October 2022. I know right but dont get any funny ideas yet.
One of the first things I look at in the playoffs if I decide to back a team: Can the team run the ball and defend the run well? A team has to do more than just be good at passing they need to be efficient at running the ball too. Weather is colder and it is a little bit more tougher to catch the ball in these cold and windy environments unless its indoors. Teams have to think about time of possession and making the most out of it by playing ball control. Running the ball may be out of style in the new NFL way of thinking, but its still beneficial in the playoffs to be able to run the ball when protecting leads or keeping a more stronger opposing offense within one score by putting them on the sidelines.
The Steelers offense is nowhere proficient enough in the passing game to go toe-to-toe with Josh Allen and the Bills so running the ball effectively is their best option here. Najee Harris is running a bit better and has been getting more of the workload lately, but Jaylen Warren has been surprisingly more productive and has more spring in his legs. If I were the Steelers I'd use the shiftier Jaylen Warren a little more on early downs. The Steelers rush attack is averaging 4.3 ypc in their last 3 games which is decent, season average is 4.1 ypc. The Bills run defense on the other hand has been leaky since losing Matt Milano giving up an average of 4.6 ypc this season. If we take a look at the last 5 games during the Bills 5 game winning streak, they're allowing about 4.4 ypc. Bills have shown a bit of improvement defensively but they can still be had on the ground by a decent rushing attack. Patriots have rushed below 4 ypc on the season and manage to squeeze nearly 4.3 ypc on them and kept it closer than it should have been.
So far the Steelers are off to a great start, now how about their defense can they stop the run? It looks a little better for the Steelers on that front allowing 4.3 ypc which is a little better than the Bills but in general that is still considered average. Compound that with the TJ Watt injury and the run defense will drop down a tick more. Ever since the Bills fired their OC Ken Dorsey they have featured more James Cook and Josh Allen on the ground for a 4.3 ypc combined clip. While it hasn't always been super effective, it has helped kept Josh Allen's passing attempts down considerably maybe in a concerted effort to keep his turnovers down as well. So far its working wonders for them in tight ball games. I don't see any particular advantages here for both teams. They both can run the ball on each other. Turnovers and redzone performance would be the next thing to look at.
One of the first things I look at in the playoffs if I decide to back a team: Can the team run the ball and defend the run well? A team has to do more than just be good at passing they need to be efficient at running the ball too. Weather is colder and it is a little bit more tougher to catch the ball in these cold and windy environments unless its indoors. Teams have to think about time of possession and making the most out of it by playing ball control. Running the ball may be out of style in the new NFL way of thinking, but its still beneficial in the playoffs to be able to run the ball when protecting leads or keeping a more stronger opposing offense within one score by putting them on the sidelines.
The Steelers offense is nowhere proficient enough in the passing game to go toe-to-toe with Josh Allen and the Bills so running the ball effectively is their best option here. Najee Harris is running a bit better and has been getting more of the workload lately, but Jaylen Warren has been surprisingly more productive and has more spring in his legs. If I were the Steelers I'd use the shiftier Jaylen Warren a little more on early downs. The Steelers rush attack is averaging 4.3 ypc in their last 3 games which is decent, season average is 4.1 ypc. The Bills run defense on the other hand has been leaky since losing Matt Milano giving up an average of 4.6 ypc this season. If we take a look at the last 5 games during the Bills 5 game winning streak, they're allowing about 4.4 ypc. Bills have shown a bit of improvement defensively but they can still be had on the ground by a decent rushing attack. Patriots have rushed below 4 ypc on the season and manage to squeeze nearly 4.3 ypc on them and kept it closer than it should have been.
So far the Steelers are off to a great start, now how about their defense can they stop the run? It looks a little better for the Steelers on that front allowing 4.3 ypc which is a little better than the Bills but in general that is still considered average. Compound that with the TJ Watt injury and the run defense will drop down a tick more. Ever since the Bills fired their OC Ken Dorsey they have featured more James Cook and Josh Allen on the ground for a 4.3 ypc combined clip. While it hasn't always been super effective, it has helped kept Josh Allen's passing attempts down considerably maybe in a concerted effort to keep his turnovers down as well. So far its working wonders for them in tight ball games. I don't see any particular advantages here for both teams. They both can run the ball on each other. Turnovers and redzone performance would be the next thing to look at.
You know what. This game is gonna be so ugly I don't think I can continue lol. Game possibly being moved to Cleveland? Does it still deserve a full in-depth analysis?
However in summary:
Both teams will be able to run on each others run defense. Advantage: null
Both defenses can force turnovers so it will be on the offense to contain the fumbles. JA/Cook have 6 FLs; Rudolph/Harris/Warren have 3 FLs(note: none by Harris). Advantage: Steelers
Redzone will be another factor. Steelers RZ offense a bit better lately but slightly worse defensively compared to season avg. Bills RZ surprisingly worse in both sides last 5 weeks compared to season avg but still has better RZ offense than Steelers but the playing field is closer. Advantage: Bills slightly
Verdict:
my lean would have been Steelers +10 but since that number is gone down to +9.5 it's a no play for me. Also this will be Steelers 3rd straight road game so Bills -9.5 makes more sense to me. Instead I will be looking at a few player props. Waiting on venue news
You know what. This game is gonna be so ugly I don't think I can continue lol. Game possibly being moved to Cleveland? Does it still deserve a full in-depth analysis?
However in summary:
Both teams will be able to run on each others run defense. Advantage: null
Both defenses can force turnovers so it will be on the offense to contain the fumbles. JA/Cook have 6 FLs; Rudolph/Harris/Warren have 3 FLs(note: none by Harris). Advantage: Steelers
Redzone will be another factor. Steelers RZ offense a bit better lately but slightly worse defensively compared to season avg. Bills RZ surprisingly worse in both sides last 5 weeks compared to season avg but still has better RZ offense than Steelers but the playing field is closer. Advantage: Bills slightly
Verdict:
my lean would have been Steelers +10 but since that number is gone down to +9.5 it's a no play for me. Also this will be Steelers 3rd straight road game so Bills -9.5 makes more sense to me. Instead I will be looking at a few player props. Waiting on venue news
There are only less than two days left for this game to play. Logistically, it would not be possible to move this game to other venue within less than two day left. The only two options left here, play this game as scheduled or postpend it. I think, DK.
There are only less than two days left for this game to play. Logistically, it would not be possible to move this game to other venue within less than two day left. The only two options left here, play this game as scheduled or postpend it. I think, DK.
Feels like this line might be spot on wouldn't surprise me at the current line of 10 that it ends in a push. Steelers on their 3rd straight road game and the Bills penchant for points shaving can't trust either. Instead I think I will go for what seems like a sure-fire bet since there is still snow in the forecast for Monday. I've noticed in a lot of snow games in the past running backs tend to go off for 100 yards games....
Feels like this line might be spot on wouldn't surprise me at the current line of 10 that it ends in a push. Steelers on their 3rd straight road game and the Bills penchant for points shaving can't trust either. Instead I think I will go for what seems like a sure-fire bet since there is still snow in the forecast for Monday. I've noticed in a lot of snow games in the past running backs tend to go off for 100 yards games....
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