DK Wildcard Matchup: Browns vs Texans

This match, in theory, sets up perfectly for the Browns led by playoff veteran Super Bowl winning quarterback Joe Flacco backed by a hyper aggressive defense led by Super Bowl winning defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz going against a rookie quarterback and first time head coach. CJ Stroud and Demeco Ryans are the 5th such duo to start a playoff game in their debut season. The other four? Luck/Pagano, Sanchez/Rex Ryan, Flacco/Harbaugh, Matt Ryan/Mike Smith. They all went 2-2 SUATS on the road. CJ Stroud gets the benefit of playing in a home playoff game. The 2 most recent first time playoff starting QBs that played in a home playoff game were AJ McCarron in 2015-16 and Aaron Brooks 2000-01, both as underdogs. They went 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS. There may be a few others, but haven't dug in far enough. As you can see the sample size is small. What's already public knowledge is rookie QBs/first time playoff QBs struggling overall in the postseason it's probably an 30-70'ish type record , circulated numbers vary on the net so no bother in being accurate you already get the picture...

Now this version of the Cleveland Browns may be the best Browns team since the Vinny Testaverde days back in the 90's. The Browns defense in 2023 is quite good and is the centerpiece of this Browns team. Notice that I didn't say it is very good or excellent. I don't know what it is, for as much talent as the Browns have on their roster especially on the defensive side these home/road splits are a little off-putting. 700+ more yards and double the amount of points allowed on the road. Maybe the Browns tend to play down to their competition alot more than they should have

Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator against rookie QBs since 2016 with Eagles and now Browns has an 7-1-1 SU, 7-2 ATS record. The only blemishes? He lost to Dak Prescott, and it ended in a tie with Burrow. He's beaten the likes of Dwayne Haskins, Daniel Jones, Jake Luton, CJ Beathard, Ben DiNucci, Mitch Trubisky, Clayton Tune with ease. Will CJ Stroud be his next victim? 

(To be continued)

Since 2002 rookie QBs in the playoffs playing a Qb that has played in playoffs are 17-32-1 ATS  ( BET MGM stat ) 

DK 

@Digitalkarma

 Good luck bro!! 

The #1 talking point heading into this match: How will CJ Stroud and the surprisingly explosive Texans pass offense fare against Myles Garrett and the relentless defensive front of the Cleveland Browns. It's evident that Jim Schwartz will need to ratchet up the pressure and rattle the young signal caller early and often but the key here is can they? Out of the Browns 49 total sacks on the season they only recorded 17 sacks on the road which means they're probably also getting less QB hits and hurries as well. The key number for the Browns defense is 3 sacks. If the Browns defense get less than 3 sacks then they have a good probability of losing the game.. that was the case against Steelers, Seahawks, Rams and Broncos on the road but not counting the season finale against the Bengals.

Last time they met, Browns defense had 3 sacks against the immobile Case Keenum. Davis Mills and Keenum combined were both ineffective offensively. Nico Collins was banged up and missed the previous game but still ended up playing. However, it was a lost cause out there without Stroud and the game already out of hand early. While not the most mobile quarterback, the young legs of Stroud may be able to buy himself a little extra time in the pocket. Houston Texans offensive line, while neither great or bad, still have some decent protection upfront with all-pro Laremy Tunsil and vet Shaq Mason. The health of Robert Woods and Noah Brown is something to monitor as the Texans will need an healthy 3rd option besides Collins and Dalton Schultz to move the chains. The Browns have the best 3rd down defense in the league so its imperative that the Texans offense does not get too one-dimensional as they tend to be at times. Houston Texans running game isn't really all that great at 3.7 ypc but the Browns run defense is allowing 4.3 ypc which is interesting to note. Not sure what are the splits for the Browns defense on the road for 3rd down conversions and rushing average but that could be key to understanding why the Browns are so jeckyl and hyde sometimes on the road. The Texans were able to run on the Browns for 4.5 ypc. The Browns can be runned on so Texans need to throw some runs in there to keep the Browns defense honest. Bobby Slowik has done an wonderful job in helping to turn this offense around. Slowik and Demeco Ryans off their previous success with the 49ers last year certainly still has the mojo working for them over in Houston

to be continued..

@Fademeuwin

@Fuse

@insatiable

  GL 

@Digitalkarma

This is where it gets interesting with the Texans defense. In my opinion, their defense is a bit underrated. Texans aren't that far behind the Browns in the sack column with 46 sacks. Perhaps it may be a bit inflated playing that awful Titans O-line twice but give some credit where it's due they got an improved defensive front with Jonathan Greenard, Will Anderson, Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins. They also field a top 5 run defense unit allowing just 3.5 ypc which I think is even more legit going against the likes of Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Travis Ettiene twice and the AFC North running teams. Last time the Browns ran for 30 times for 54 yards against the Texans which could partially explain why the Browns offense are #1 in third down attempts yet #29th worst in converting them. It just so happens that Texans are also not that far behind the Browns in 3rd down defense at #5.

That's nice and all, but how will the Texans defense stop Amari Cooper and David Njoku? As you all may remember Cooper singlehandedly took it to the Texans several weeks ago with a personal record high 265 yards receiving along with 2 TDs. Njoku chipped in 44 yards and a TD of his own. Texans are weak in the middle against tight ends and Flacco certainly loves throwing to tight ends throughout his career. While I don't see Cooper replicating over 200+ yards receiving again, he will get his yards probably no more than 150 yds. clearly Texans secondary is the weak spot and Demeco Ryans will have to come up with a better game plan to stop Cooper. The Browns probably should forget about running the ball and throw a lot more on early downs. Then again they are the Browns and Stefanski doesn't have the best situational awareness. Joe Flacco will have to be careful with those interceptions if they go pass heavy. Texans do have an opportunistic defense with 24 takeaways almost as much as the Browns do with 28 takeaways. Now I am not saying Texans are as good as the Browns defense when you compare their schedules but they are playing inspired football under their leader Demeco Ryans. 

(Be back with the final verdict and picks.. )

@Digitalkarma

 Great Stuff - can't wait for the conclusion.  

@Digitalkarma

Good luck, DK! 

Verdict

The Browns will come into this match perhaps feeling a little overconfident and cocky from stomping them in week 16 and knowing they will play a rookie QB in the playoffs who hasn't known playoff pressure except for the CFP semifinals against Georgia. CJ Stroud isn't an ordinary rookie and Jim Schwartz could possibly have his hands full this Saturday. This isn't Dwayne Haskins he's facing but more along the lines of Dak or Burrow that gave Schwartz trouble in the past. I don't know who be shadowing Nico Collins in this match: Denzel Ward or Emerson but that will be an interesting battle to watch. Nico Collins has shown he can win some of those 1 on 1 battles now that he has Stroud throwing to him again. 

We don't know what we will get with Stroud's first playoff game but it's undeniable that he has shown more poise than the average rookie and doesn't make plays that hurt his team. The turnover battle, 3rd downs and redzone performance will be a big factor in this game. Flacco's 8 interceptions are scary to fathom in a do-or-die game but certainly more upside for Browns offense being able to move the ball and score touchdowns. The 3rd down and redzone discrepancy is a bit alarming to me: Browns being last on 3rd down offense and first on 3rd down defense. Browns used to be bottom in redzone offense but has since lately come alive to finish middle of the pack while their redzone defense is still last in the league. 

If Stroud can withstand the early onslaught of Browns pass rush, make very little mistakes and don't get too far behind early then the fiesty Texans can make this a closer game than expected. Browns defense preys on mistakes and giving plenty of possession and good field position back to their offense.  I see value in taking the home underdog points. Thinking a Texans outright win here or Browns winning by 1 point because it's the Browns 

Texans +2.5(-105)

Texans ML +126 *Xtra small*

@kcblitzkrieg

  GL in playoffs KC 

Very good writeup and much appreciated. I'm on the other side only thinking browns get 3+sacks and trusting in Schwartz. Best of luck to everyone!

Thank you and good luck ! My initial lean was Cleveland but after looking through some details ive gone the other way. This is the most interesting matchup on Saturday imo. could be more entertaining then the Swiftie game lol O/U how many shots we will see of Swift 

@Digitalkarma

 Nice writeup & GL 

Lots of good info & as a Texans fan, hope you're right. Either way, should be a helluva game 

Can’t go wrong taking a home dog in the playoffs but a rookie in the playoffs is the opposite although Stroud is so good not sure he is still a rookie. But Flacco playing like it’s 2012 and that defense. I’ll be on Cleveland 

GL 

What defense? The defense that gave up 30 PPG on the road this season? Stats say the defense is not great on the road

Stroud isn't the typical rookie plus they're at home. Most of these rookies have to spend their first game on the road. Stroud is a bit lucky in that sense. 

You know Flacco ain't ever gonna come close to that magical postseason run. 14 touchdowns, 0 interceptions 

@cashin

 GL on your team bud. Should be a closer game than the last meeting probably come down to the final possession 

@davemsh

 Hard to say if they were overlooking their opponent or just didn't care about playing on the road but going with the assumption that their defense isn't all that's its cracked up to be. The splits are interesting nevertheless 

@Fademeuwin

 Yep fading rookie quarterbacks in the playoffs and in the first 3 weeks of the NFL is the best betting system that I known for years. 

Outstanding info & digging! Thank you so much 

@Digitalkarma

BUT DK when Flacco gets into the playoffs he is so so good. You know how he gets. Most road wins in the playoffs in history. He looks like the 2012 Flacco. Of course 2012 was history making. It’s crazy in my eyes it’s the best game of the weekend. Yet it’s the first game. They give us Philly TB n Monday night that’s crap. 

@Htowngoat

 your welcome gl on your team 

@WilliamMunny

 that was 11 years ago bro lol i still admire it but i try not to live in the past. 13 TDs and 8 INTs is good but hardly elite. still has an arm though 

@Digitalkarma

 Thank you,sir! 

@Digitalkarma

 Everything you wrote is accurate except for one important fact: the Browns are not overlooking this team because they beat them a couple of weeks ago without their stud QB. If anything, they are on high alert.