DK Wildcard Matchup: Browns vs Texans

Teams that lost the prior same-season game versus an opponent are on a 7-9 SU and 5-11 ATS (31.3%) skid in the playoffs when hosting that same opponent 

Long time follower DK I think youre right on the money for this one. No need to overthink this game, Stroud gets its done in the rematch. I also just don't see the Browns being more desperate as they had a successful season and I don't think this game is an absolute must win if that makes sense. I like Houston as they are on fire and will be ready for this one as a Team.

@begginerboy

 hey bb, can you direct me to a source. was trying to look around the net but couldn't seem to find any articles i do remember something like that but when teams met for the third time, the team that swept usually covered. pretty similar trend

I closed my browser so I’m not sure but it came up when searched teams winning twice against the same team on the road. I think the trend above does not mention or consider where the first game was played. It’s only in relation to the second game on the road and in the playoffs. 

thanks for chiming in. not really overthinking but just breaking down my perspective on the game. i think it will be a good game as long as the flags aren't egregious, but seeing that both these teams are some of the most penalised i shouldnt hope for too much lol. browns winning this game by 1 and not covering is so typical Browns i wouldn't be shocked regardless i feel like the value is with the Texans and i'm willing to forego the rookie playoff trend and go against it. 

Impossible this time a year but would be awesome to see both teams at/near 100%. Can say alot about Stefanski but I have no doubt he'll throw on early downs if he thinks thats best gameplan. I expect him to do that. I think both DLs are gonna crush opposing OLs in this one. 

Found the same trend you posted from Vsin. https://www.vsin.com/nfl/nfl-rematch-game-betting-trends/

In the context of what they wrote I'm making the assumption that if the road team beat the team earlier and the team they beat is at home and also favorite then that is motivation for the road team. 

Trend #4 is interesting that would apply to the Dolphins 

30  ppg on the road....

1st game observations.

Browns dominated game.

Texans got 1 TD on Kick return and 2 TDs after game was over and Browns went to zone during garbage time and one of those TDs came  off and on side kick.

No one talks about how Browns OL dominated.   Texans Def NO pressure on Flacco.   Same will happen this week

What they do talk about is how Browns DL also dominated.    3 Turnovers,  3 Sacks and a Texans QB running for his life all game.   Texans unable to run ball with 75 yards rushing. Same will happen this week

Lot of coverage sacks/pressure on Texans QB as WRs could NOT get open because Browns play a lot of tight man to man on defense.  Same will happen this week.

Browns WRs/TEs/RBs all open all game long.     Same will happen this week.

Stroud will give them a bit more this week, but not much.   

Browns win by 3 or more.

@SexyChoc

Have to remember they didn't have Will Anderson, Jonathan Greenard and Blake Cashman for that game, that's basically their entire pass rush right there. 

Stroud was out with concussion, Nico Collins played that game but was coming off an injury previous week missed a game too so didn't put forth much effort in a losing cause. Texans didn't game plan to try win that game. Gonna be a closer game in my opinion 

Line has dropped on Houston. +2 now 

@OSU12345

Agreed here. I feel like this would affect Flacco more due to immobility. 

Extremely STRONG counterpoints to your awesome analysis DK...much appreciated, gotta go with the Better More experienced squad...QB, Defense, even HC getting better.. Delicious Game but I'm siding with poster above.. plus throw in BBs valid angle.

Love me some Will Anderson...and HCs enthusiasm but.....is Stroud Ready for the Big Stage???

Always Stick with your initial thoughts, GL either way..

As for me, I'm playing the Ngoku receiving props since we both KNOW Flacco has been hooking up with him on their run lately 

Lastly, NFL would love to see Browns head to Baltimore..talk about Storylines..

Amari Cooper will not have 265 yards receiving..like he did vs the Texans 3 weeks ago...It was a fluke game... 

Nothin like starting the first playoff game with a W!! 

Good Night Brownies 

@minjitta

 Na na hey goodbye 

@Digitalkarma

@Macwestie1