don't get fooled again week 3

 BOL week 3 phixer. 

Awesome insight phixer. What's your look at the cowboys with romo and Bryant hurt. They are underdogs +2 and public doesn't seem to be back them as much. I believe they traded for Matt cassell so you think it's a good opportunity to back the cowboys still as they are somewhat undervalued?

Hey douchebag,
Start your own thread WITH YOUR OWN PICKS!!!!!
Dont clutter this thread with your garbage. There is enough of it in his threads as it is.

Love the sarcasm Mr Poo

Phixer,

I've been thinking a bit about your stance that Vegas controls a lot these games. It makes complete sense to me and I agree, but I'm curious how much you factor in the NFLs need for good storylines and teams that fit certain expectations or roles. When I look at your record of 12-4-1, I see 3 losses and 1 push that are the result of either Brady or manning winning the game or pushing the total too high when Vegas stood to lose on those results. Take away your bets against those two and you're a ridiculous 12-1 right now.

The NfL always wants new good teams to emerge and to have teams that have been strong for a while start to fall to keep people guessing but they always seem to let Brady and manning remain the untouchables. My question: how much of a role do you think the NFLs interests play into the results of games? It can't be just Vegas pulling the strings, can it?

Thanks for your thoughts.

How much money do the networks pay the NFL? Billions. So if a team is getting blown out at half time, it would make alot of sense to start the second half with the blown out team mounting a comeback. It keeps viewers glued to the TV. WWE style.

Kill em this week Phix!

Much like the 13-3 halftime snooze fest being put on by GB/Sea, then the Russell Wilson "magic" got the interest back, before the correct team covered

Might parlay giants and under for tonight

looking at the lines and the props for the game this is what i see:

i appreciate you guys asking me questions about the games i did not post the pick for. although i may post some and may not - i don't practice and advise you also not to practice part time handicapping. if i handicap a game - i dive whole 30 meters and stay there as long as i get the supply of the oxygen or i get my mark -whatever comes first - but i do not throw away my opinions just to answer and look knowledgeable. so, please focus on what i handicap with all due respect. you can converse here between each other and offer opinions about the other games - i really dont mind it - but please do  not expect me to answer things i did not initiate

Wholeheartedly concur and think there is waaaay more influence on games from the NFL head office than VEGAS has over games. The key word being "influence" - not "fixed" nor "scripted" like the WWF. JMHO

the main objective is entertainment value. all the professional leagues have the narrative saying to expect the unexpected and that is always right for "vegas" when needed. and we yet didn't cover the subject of other interests than "vegas" and the league usually opposed to both. that is at least half the seldom cases the events go out of "scripted" limits

Love you attitude phixer!!! Bol tonight my mAn and let's hit that under!!

Phixer where are you posting the college's games?

On tonight's game, for me, it comes down to not who wins Giants or Skins, but rather who wins Sharps or Squares.

I am on the Under because for TNF/SNF/MNF I usually always am - especially when the square bet looks like a good play as Squares win their bets but lose their parlays.

Phixer I did not fully read your analysis in the "teach to fish post" as that one needs some time and decent concentration (a luxury  cannot afford that right now). But if you are stating (and I don't think you are) that the sharps lost this past weekend that would not be correct. The house and the sharps cleaned up this past weekend and Mon Night, with the sharps only losing one game - the Bills. Every nickel the house lost in week 1 came back in week 2 dressed up as a dollar - or so the saying goes.

If the Squares - who are the lifeblood of Vegas - lose every week they will not come back. They have to win - the house and the sharps cannot win every week. OVer time with the vig the house always grinds out positive $ but that's a given.

Tonight the Sharps are all over the Skins and rightfully so, they are driving the line down on a big money game to 3, short week for the Giants, Giants stinking out the joint the first 2 weeks, Skins moved the ball well vs MIA and MIA had to come back to win(every one saw that game and bet MIA), Skins rock the Rams (everyone saw that game and bet STL). Pretty square thinking but they see something and when you, Suuma and a few others have you writeups maybe the fuzz in my brain may dissolve....

But past events warrant the 3 point line and the public will still take the Giants at home, nationally televised night game and there will be good support $ wise on both sides, this is a good line for Vegas.

But it's a soft line, IMHO.

Before week 1 Giants would have been a 6-7 point fav here against Gruden's crappy squad for many reasons.

But after two measly weeks we have an overreaction making this line 3.

IMHO the squares take this tonight as Giants are still the better team even with a short week. IMNSHO this bodes REAL well for the UNDER.

Mr Wrestler, English is not my first language either but behind a grammatical issue or two is the point if you just look a little...

A line that balances the $ more or less, based on public perception of recent events or bad information is prone to be a soft line with an advantage going to the astute capper.