This is exactly what they want and it's why I am finally going to retire from NFL betting once this season is over. It's a waste of time thinking you can cap games anymore, it all comes down to the BS that happens on the final 2 drives and what the refs and coaches do.
The moving of the PAT has introduced a lot of variance as you saw tonight also. And now we have the awesome genius coaches who never kick on 4th down. Eagles did it today and as a result their starting CB got hurt and they surrendered the lead. This trend has created insane variance and now that it's taken over, I'm done. It's all orchestrated to come down to the final drive if at all possible - either the spread winner or SU winner is almost always down to that. Great for entertainment, bad for bettors. Unless you love a sweat. Some guys do. I'm sick of it.
When you're on the right side of the lucky endings you just think the people complaining about it are sore losers. But when you're on the wrong end of the stick it feels unfair. If I'm going to bet on things that are decided by luck I might as well play roulette because at least there is no ref or no coach interfering - and it's sad when pure luck is a better punting prospect.
I was loving the Jags today and told everyone I knew that the line looked low and was a trap and they would win SU. But they were actually losing the whole game and I got lucky at the end, that's all.
I've seen so many games this year as well where the teams up big at halftime didn't score at all the whole 2nd half. More than ever seen before. It's fishy. Didn't happen before when live betting and 2H betting wasnt so widespread. Miami today go up 30 then do nothing against the horrid Texans. They would have lost the cover except for what? 2 missed 2 pt attempts. If the Texans juat kicked their PATs the Phins backers lose after being up 30-0.
I had SF too and they could have lost the cover easily also despite pitching a shutout.
SNF was 6 down to the wire games in a row with favs winning and not covering and the same almost happened today they missed 2 TD throws and the score was .5 off the spread.
Capping is a waste of time any more the way they have the game set up now. It's all about keeping eyeballs on screens til the final whistle. Dudes are just gonna be donating to Fanduel the rest of their lives while they age themselves prematurely sweating out the last 2 minutes of every game.
Last year there was a record set for most OT games. This year record set for 2-2 teams after 4 weeks. They expanded the playoffs to get more fanbases involved. Expanded the season and screwed up the bye week stuff for the playoffs to make it more random (i hate that change the most where there's only 1 bye week team). It's just more more more for the NFL and it's gonna be less less less for the betting man who is being played like a fiddle at this point.
I used to think people who said this stuff was rigged or scripted were just talking through their pockets but when you watch a game without a bet it's just as obvious. You see it coming - here we go, prevent defense, flag on 4th and 18 for perfect coverage or for breathing near the QB to extend the drive. It's comical - except if you are in danger of a large swing to your bankroll!
@NutinButtLove
I have felt your pain many times this season, but the way to look at it is just to make better choices on which games to bet on. And just as important, which games not to bet on. Every week there are games where the outcome actually does make sense. Those are the ones you gotta be looking for. And still you will get screwed from time to time.
But to your point, I can honestly say I don't ever remember a time when the games were so close all the time. Either to the SU bet or the ATS bet. Giants on thanksgiving was a perfect example. I felt very lucky at the end of that game. Why were they even attempting to score anymore with 1:00 minute to play and down 2 scores. Most teams just give up and run the ball and the clock. And then of course the back door cover with the meaningless TD. You also make a great point about the now further XP and the fact that coaches are going for it on 4th down and costing us gamblers loads of money. The NFL is definitely changing and so are the outcomes for bettors. Sorry if you took a hit today. Keep your head up 
@NutinButtLove
Then quit betting, seriously. I've been watching and betting on football since the Stardust Hotel, 1979. You know us old, meaningless and irrelevant fans and Bettors of the game, FK off, seriously. Only crazy shit happens now, so fkng naive, it's sports. Nothing different now, good breaks, bad breaks, that's sports betting, again, not for everyone. I had Washington, Jags and SF today. I also had Cowboys on Thursday. Plenty of games I lost in the 80s, should have won. That's the way it goes. If you can't hang, understandable, not for the weak. Us old, meaningless, irrelevant fans of the game and betting still around though, ain't that right Van? 72 Finz Up!
@brn2loslive2win
I had a fine day I went 4-1. Jags, Jets, Broncos, 9ers and Eagles were my plays. I'm not quitting because I had a bad day I am just realizing that the good or bad days are actually not down to any amount of research or study you can do any more, it's all designed to have games be down to the wire and whatever silliness happens on those last 2 drives. If you think anything else you're kidding yourself.
Another thing I won't miss is posting on covers only to have people constantly misinterpret your posts lol, as both people replying to me have done to a certain extent
You say 'just make better choices which games to bet on' and then contradict yourself saying you had the Giants in the Cowboys game which is easily a prime example of what I'm talking about. Looking at the yardage the Giants had no business even being in with a chance to backdoor that game. Lucky isn't even the word. I'm still waiting for a video to surface of that Parsons penalty.
Someone else posted that 'most teams just try to run out the clock down 2 scores' after that game, maybe it was you? Where you getting this from. The losing team is never not trying to score on the last drive no matter what the score is they always try to at least get it closer. What football have you been watching? The only teams that don't try to score are usually the winning ones at the end.
I actually had the luckiest miracle win of the season as I had Boise St Saturday and if you didn't see what happened, they were -16.5 went up 21-0 but then with 1:35 left only up 5 and the other team had the ball at the Boise St 11 - they looked liked they were about to lose SU. Then Utah St turned it over on downs instead of scoring, and the 2md handoff for Boise went for a 90 Yard TD. On the subsequent possession Utah St threw a pick and the guy decided what the heck lets run it all the way back for a TD instead of sitting on it.
What was even funnier was I threw my ticket in the fire when Utah St was at the 11 yard line and had to go down to the bookie shop the next day and fill out a lost ticket form with my ID to get paid lol
NFL if you are down late, you keep trying, you don't give up. Even using all your timeouts to stop the clock when the other team has the ball. Hope they bad snap and fumble on next down.
NBA is different. Team down just gives up. Tonight it's Celtics 130-119 with a minute and a half left. Wizards never foul. Just let Celtics run the shot clock out. Then it's 130-121 with about 45 seconds. Wizards let them run off 24 seconds then get the ball back with 21 seconds and they run it out. WTF ??? Yes 9 points is a lot but I have seen crazier things. At least try ???
Sorry mate but where did I call anyone old or irrelevant? You mentioned it twice so I'm confused cuz I never said that anywhere.
I'm old enough too. Been betting NFL over 20 years. And if you are going to tell me there was as many coin flip games in past seasons you're just plain wrong. Recently it's gotten way worse as the record amount of OT games last year is proof of.
Yeah bro, it's so weak not to want to bet on coin flips. Can't hang I guess. Actually, when it becomes clear that an activity is a waste of time or has little value, I drop that activity. That is actually what most people do as they get older and time becomes even more valuable.
Besides Washington I had the exact same games as you including Thanksgiving Dallas. This isn't something I decided based on one day. I went 4-1 today I dont care it could have just as easily been any result, that's the whole point.
Not sure why you got your panties in such a bunch but I can assure you my ramblings were not a personal attack on you or on anyone else who wishes to persist in the pastime of NFL wagering. But I had similar reactions from certain people when I stopped drinking years ago. If I'm being honest I think hearing or seeing someone who has the same patterns as you suddenly change makes the person who is still stuck in that pattern a little uncomfortable because they don't want to examine it for themselves. But with booze it was the right decision as those guys are all fat washed up alcoholics now for the most part. And I think this will be the right decision too.
I simply wanted to point out that what the thread title says is 100% spot on - we think we are betting on football games and we can 'cap' the winners but we are actually betting on coin flips just like the end of that movie where Matthew McConaughey plays a tout. If you are still having fun doing it then more power to you don't let me rain on your parade. I'm sure there are people out there who will agree with each of us.
Danny it's actually exactly the same and I quit basketball after last season because I realized the same thing - it all comes down to the last minute nonsense. Even when teams are up huge, foot comes off the gas and now you are sweating out the free throw game. I mistakenly thought that I would be better off just sticking to football. Now I've seen that it's just as bad in the NFL as they just won't let a game fkin end!
I have seen all kinds of crazy stuff at the end of NBA games. It's not accurate to say they give up, usually they heave desperation 3s and foul and it's just as bad, I quit basketball after last season for the same reason - all the covers are decided by free throws and desperation 3s, it's the same thing.
The general etiquette is when the game has like 2 24 seconds clocks left or something and is pretty much out of reach the winning team runs the clock down and if they have done that without trying to score the losing team is expected to also run it down without trying to score. It varies but 8 points is the generally accepted time to stop fouling, depends on the clock.
But you never know, I saw one game where i i had the favored team covering something like a -7 spread with a 3 point cushion so they were up 10, getting the ball with about 40 seconds left. They dribbled the 24 second clock out, so that meant the other team would do the same, meaning I didn't have to worry about any 3 balls, right? Well the losing team didn't try to shoot a 3 but some rookie who didn't get the memo about etiquette did try to run down for a layup. No problem, 2 points wont affect my bet.
BUT! A veteran bench player saw what this young buck was doing and took exception to it and decided to give him a hard foul - a hard foul which did not stop the shot from going in, unfortunately. So it was an and1.
The kid hit the free throw as well. You could see after the final whistle the veteran was in his face telling him that he wasn't supposed to do what he had just done, but it did not matter the winning wager was now a push thanks to that little punk.
I think we can both agree that these late game shenanigans are not how we want bets to be decided, but they are. It's up to us if we decide to risk our hard earned on these ridiculous end of game sequences. You can think it will be different next time, well sometimes it is. Or sometimes you get 6 favorites winning and not covering in a row like on Sunday Night football.
Opening lines and closing lines will be very important..lines are getting tight now.. wether your a sharp or square.. time to buckle down or you will lose your @$$… I’ve been playing less plays for more units… just a reminder for you loose and action addicts.. discipline before Christmas or you will be left with no gifts..
NutinButtLove, I made complaints before about final score being manipulated too much, and some people on this forum called me a bad gambler. I can understand Green Bay kicker missing extra point attempts from time to time. He missed a fair amount of extra points in the past. However, I cannot condone what Lovie Smith did after each of Texans' two TD's today. When his team is down 24 points after the first TD, what justification does he have to go for 2? He created justification to go for 2 after the 2nd TD by missing the 2-point conversion attempt after the first TD. The only purpose for going for 2 was to allow Miami to cover their 14-point spread. I would have had a big day had Texans lost by 13 or even by 14. Instead my teaser had to come to my rescue to have a small profit for the day. Teasers may be the answer if NFL manipulates games to end in final scores close to the posted spread, but you never know when NFL may change their mind and in what games. Both legal and illegal bookies are trying to make up their losses in other speculative investments by gouging gamblers. In this environment all gamblers must unite and stop betting at the same time. We have to show all the big, fat players in this business - NFL team owners, rich players, legal and illegal bookies, TV advertisers, and so on - that regular fans of pro sports are not enough to sustain their obscenely profitable ventures.
Established in 1995,
...so well written. 
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