*ECONOMETRIC MODEL*

Hi guys, I finally finished my econometric model for my master in economics and maths. My goal was to make a model who is able to predict the best way possible the results of NFL games before they're played. 

I use a lot of statistics from last year and this year games to be able to come up with this linear regression who has as explicated variable the points scored by both teams. 

Here's my predictions for the weekend games , I will love if you guys give me some feedback about these predictions because I know nothing about american Football.

TEN 21 - PHI 18  ------ BET MADE : TEN +3.5

CIN 25 - ATL 27  ------ BET MADE : UNDER 53.5

TB 35 - CHI 22 ------ BET MADE : TB +3.0

HOU 17 - IND 20 ------ BET MADE : UNDER 47

MIA 27 - NE 20 ------ BET MADE : MIA +6.5

CLE 21 - OAK 24 ------ BET MADE : OAK ML

BAL 25 - PIT 33 ------ BET MADE : PIT - 3

DET 26 - DAL 16 ------ BET MADE : DET + 3

BUF 17 - GB 27 ------ BET MADE : GB -9.5

NYJ 18 - JAX 23 ------ BET MADE : OVER 38.5

SEA 17 - ARI 11 ------ BET MADE : SEA -3

NO 33 - NYG 19 ------ BET MADE : NO -3.5

KC 36 - DEN 26 ------ BET MADE : KC -4.5

It seems to me the hardest thing to factor into a model for the NFL would be injuries. Do you have a way to weigh injuries at various positions or would this only be a good model for a team that hasn't changed much? Lots of models try to factor in QB effectiveness via passing ratings, but what would your model do for a team with an injured starting QB?

Also if you're using the last few years as a baseline I have a feeling you'll be underrating teams that have done poorly but whose results will improve due to high draft picks and trades and such (the Browns come to mind, I see you took the OAK ML despite CLE having a new starting QB and OAK trading away their best player).

I've made 3 picks for this week myself and interestingly 2 of them appear on this list:

MIA 27 - NE 20 ------ BET MADE : MIA +6.5 (I actually got this one at +7.5 for +100 early in the week)

NO 33 - NYG 19 ------ BET MADE : NO -3.5

I also picked the NYJ ML at +310

Make sure you're keeping track of payout rates as well. Doesn't do you any good to win 51/100 at -110

@SpiderPiggie

I gave less weight to positive beta on teams with injured QB and I use a stat that not a lot of people use, I named it the reverse induction winning percentage. 

It's a weight average (with more weight to games that have been played more recently) of the percentage of winning of all the teams a team in my model have played in the last 2 seasons. I use a special discount rate who is influenced by some others stats.

(Sorry for my english, this is not my first language haha , I hope you understand what i'm trying to write)

@ DoctorSucces Thank you my friend , I hope you like the pick :)

Do each of these game predictions have the same probability of occuring or does the first game listed have a better chance of being true than the fifth game listed ?

All equal chance ! The same model is used for all these games. 

FreePicksForLife the renamed USSInsiders betHuge money are all the same scam.

This guy is a phishing internet scammer duping people out their money, yes he will flip a coin and give you picks but his websites with his fake record is controlled by him. He does not post his losers, all of the comments are fake, every year he opens a few new websites.

He is not 13-1 and has never been 13-1. He is 11-20 the last three weeks in MLB NFL. he DID GO 2-2 last weekend bat that was a fluke.

His business model is to spam all gambling forums and hope for 100 hundred bullshit posts like the one to get one LOSER down on his luck to actually send him a few hundred bucks. To this overseas scam artist.

Don't be naive.

https://www.covers.com/forum/ViewThread/103265145/bethugemoney-are-scammers

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=12&sub=102267351

 A real handicapper making 90% picks is not spamming internet sites all day from his basement - a real handicapper accepts PayPal and Credit cards. A real handicapper has many clients, is tracked by independent 3rd parties and their picks are released after the game starts. Real handicappers do not need to advertise - and really really good handicappers limit their total customers and do not allow new customers - because they are that good.

Very interesting. Thanks for the info. 

13-1 again? It's the same record every week. Are you too stoopid to at least change your fake record?

 This guy is a phishing internet scammer duping people out their money, yes he will flip a coin and give you picks but his websites with his fake record is controlled by him. He does not post his losers, all of the comments are fake, every year he opens a few new websites.

He is not 13-1 and has never been 13-1. He is 9-19 the last three weeks in MLB and 4-7 in Preseason NFL.

His business model is to spam all gambling forums and hope for 100 hundred bullshit posts like the one to get one LOSER down on his luck to actually send him a few hundred bucks. To this overseas scam artist.

Don't be naive.

https://www.covers.com/forum/ViewThread/103265145/bethugemoney-are-scammers

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=12&sub=102267351

Hi Buddah , thx for your comment ! Good luck with your model as well. PM me your results tonight if you want ! I'm interested

13-1 again? It's the same record every week. Are you too stoopid to at least change your fake record?

This guy is a phishing internet scammer duping people out their money, yes he will flip a coin and give you picks but his websites with his fake record is controlled by him. He does not post his losers, all of the comments are fake, every year he opens a few new websites.

He is not 13-1 and has never been 13-1. He is 11-23 the last three weeks in NFL and 4-7 in Preseason NFL. Last week 1-5. Yes his website says he's a winner!

His business model is to spam all gambling forums and hope for 100 hundred bullshit posts like the one to get one LOSER down on his luck to actually send him a few hundred bucks. To this overseas scam artist.

Don't be naive.

https://www.covers.com/forum/ViewThread/103265145/bethugemoney-are-scammers

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=12&sub=102267351