Atlanta is -3.5 at home hosting the Chiefs. Are they crazy? Without even running my program, I have a strong sense that the Chiefs will steamroll the Falcons, so those 3.5 points are an added gift. However strong I feel, however, I plan on selecting the 5 best picks against the Super Contest line ... using only the system ... so who knows, maybe the system will pick Atlanta. But, based on knowledge, reason and observation alone, where I think the Chiefs win by 14, this looks like the BEST pick of the week by far!
Agree? Disagree?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Atlanta is -3.5 at home hosting the Chiefs. Are they crazy? Without even running my program, I have a strong sense that the Chiefs will steamroll the Falcons, so those 3.5 points are an added gift. However strong I feel, however, I plan on selecting the 5 best picks against the Super Contest line ... using only the system ... so who knows, maybe the system will pick Atlanta. But, based on knowledge, reason and observation alone, where I think the Chiefs win by 14, this looks like the BEST pick of the week by far!
1. hottest team in NFL, with winning 18 of their last 21 regular season games.
2. Alex Smith I believe is in his exact prime right now.
3. Chiefs defense, and especially J. Houston, will harass Ryan all day.
4. Falcons historically crumble this time of year.
5. Andy Reid is smarter than Falcons brain trust.
6. Chiefs are a more physical team and will run the ball better.
I have more reasons and,observations, but that's a start. I will report what the,System says about this,game in a couple days when lines,are out and I've had time to properly run program ... and it would not surprise me if my thoughts reach a,different conclusion than the system. It has its own mind!!!!
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Let's begin:
1. hottest team in NFL, with winning 18 of their last 21 regular season games.
2. Alex Smith I believe is in his exact prime right now.
3. Chiefs defense, and especially J. Houston, will harass Ryan all day.
4. Falcons historically crumble this time of year.
5. Andy Reid is smarter than Falcons brain trust.
6. Chiefs are a more physical team and will run the ball better.
I have more reasons and,observations, but that's a start. I will report what the,System says about this,game in a couple days when lines,are out and I've had time to properly run program ... and it would not surprise me if my thoughts reach a,different conclusion than the system. It has its own mind!!!!
The long physical overtime game is scary. Atlanta is good at home and have the bucs hot on their tail. I agree I would lean towards KC, but the situation is a little scary. Get it early in the week at 3.5, bet this line goes back down to a field goal.
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The long physical overtime game is scary. Atlanta is good at home and have the bucs hot on their tail. I agree I would lean towards KC, but the situation is a little scary. Get it early in the week at 3.5, bet this line goes back down to a field goal.
The long physical overtime game is scary. Atlanta is good at home and have the bucs hot on their tail. I agree I would lean towards KC, but the situation is a little scary. Get it early in the week at 3.5, bet this line goes back down to a field goal.
Chiefs not scared of anyone. Falcons game is a statement game in whicj high quality meets smoke & mirrors. The mirror will break and the smoke will lift to reveal an average Atlanta team with a good quartrback whipped by a Super Bowl contender that is better in most phases of the game. Of course, I may be wrong, and stay tuned for my numbers on this game later today after I apply the system.
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Quote Originally Posted by Quickiies:
The long physical overtime game is scary. Atlanta is good at home and have the bucs hot on their tail. I agree I would lean towards KC, but the situation is a little scary. Get it early in the week at 3.5, bet this line goes back down to a field goal.
Chiefs not scared of anyone. Falcons game is a statement game in whicj high quality meets smoke & mirrors. The mirror will break and the smoke will lift to reveal an average Atlanta team with a good quartrback whipped by a Super Bowl contender that is better in most phases of the game. Of course, I may be wrong, and stay tuned for my numbers on this game later today after I apply the system.
Atlanta is -3.5 at home hosting the Chiefs. Are they crazy? Without even running my program, I have a strong sense that the Chiefs will steamroll the Falcons, so those 3.5 points are an added gift. However strong I feel, however, I plan on selecting the 5 best picks against the Super Contest line ... using only the system ... so who knows, maybe the system will pick Atlanta. But, based on knowledge, reason and observation alone, where I think the Chiefs win by 14, this looks like the BEST pick of the week by far!
Agree? Disagree?
Definitely disagree! Gave several reasons in a thread I posted why I don't think the Chiefs are in a good spot this weekend....
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Quote Originally Posted by footballsmart:
Atlanta is -3.5 at home hosting the Chiefs. Are they crazy? Without even running my program, I have a strong sense that the Chiefs will steamroll the Falcons, so those 3.5 points are an added gift. However strong I feel, however, I plan on selecting the 5 best picks against the Super Contest line ... using only the system ... so who knows, maybe the system will pick Atlanta. But, based on knowledge, reason and observation alone, where I think the Chiefs win by 14, this looks like the BEST pick of the week by far!
Agree? Disagree?
Definitely disagree! Gave several reasons in a thread I posted why I don't think the Chiefs are in a good spot this weekend....
Here's my system, Fade sides who play physical, tough over time games, This was basically a tie, That's how deep it went into over time. The Falcons will win this by a minimum of 10, The easiest bet on the card.
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Here's my system, Fade sides who play physical, tough over time games, This was basically a tie, That's how deep it went into over time. The Falcons will win this by a minimum of 10, The easiest bet on the card.
Max, will post system picks,when I have them done. I've posted extensively on the system which is pretty successful over first 100 games of public testing (55-44-1) but still many hundreds of games to go before I know what I already know :-)) ... It's possible system picks Atlanta this week ...
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Max, will post system picks,when I have them done. I've posted extensively on the system which is pretty successful over first 100 games of public testing (55-44-1) but still many hundreds of games to go before I know what I already know :-)) ... It's possible system picks Atlanta this week ...
Coming off a thrilling last second comeback against a division rival which ended up taking them through almost an entire overtime session which they won in mile high on the road. Now off to another time zone still on the road to play a stout opponent. They will do all this with the weight on their minds that they play just days later at home on primetime against their arch nemesis in the biggest game of their season so far for the division lead.
Yup they should be completely fresh and focused and should definitely steamroll the lowly Falcons, an awful home team.
The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
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Coming off a thrilling last second comeback against a division rival which ended up taking them through almost an entire overtime session which they won in mile high on the road. Now off to another time zone still on the road to play a stout opponent. They will do all this with the weight on their minds that they play just days later at home on primetime against their arch nemesis in the biggest game of their season so far for the division lead.
Yup they should be completely fresh and focused and should definitely steamroll the lowly Falcons, an awful home team.
I do think you have the stronger team in an even situation, however this is not an even situation. We shall see. Always enjoy your posts and seeing your plays by the way
The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
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I do think you have the stronger team in an even situation, however this is not an even situation. We shall see. Always enjoy your posts and seeing your plays by the way
I think after squeezing by with an OT win at Den, chiefs are worn. Falcons on turf play at a quicker pace. If Falcons don't make penalties and turnover mistakes , Chiefs are done. Chief us not a comeback team falling behind. Falcons can secure lead early. Just my thought.
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I think after squeezing by with an OT win at Den, chiefs are worn. Falcons on turf play at a quicker pace. If Falcons don't make penalties and turnover mistakes , Chiefs are done. Chief us not a comeback team falling behind. Falcons can secure lead early. Just my thought.
I think after squeezing by with an OT win at Den, chiefs are worn. Falcons on turf play at a quicker pace. If Falcons don't make penalties and turnover mistakes , Chiefs are done. Chief us not a comeback team falling behind. Falcons can secure lead early. Just my thought.
You definitely have a firm grip on this game that is absolutely correct. Good work and good luck on your plays this week and through the rest of the season!
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
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Quote Originally Posted by Cashinwong:
I think after squeezing by with an OT win at Den, chiefs are worn. Falcons on turf play at a quicker pace. If Falcons don't make penalties and turnover mistakes , Chiefs are done. Chief us not a comeback team falling behind. Falcons can secure lead early. Just my thought.
You definitely have a firm grip on this game that is absolutely correct. Good work and good luck on your plays this week and through the rest of the season!
According to football reference Falcons played the toughest schedule in league at +2.3, Chiefs .1 , a 2.2 diff.
Chiefs are 5-2 in 1 score close wins, Falcons 3-3. Random events are close wins and that is the only reason Chiefs have the better record, randomness.
Falcons darwf Chiefs in every major indicator, they are not just better but better by huge amounts. Except yards per point which favors the Chiefs by a large amount.
VS Denver Chiefs were not just beaten badly but destoried in the major indicators, lost QBPR by 45 points,. lost the ave per pass by almost 5 yards per pass, if you looked back at past 50 years of games one could count on one hand the number of times a team won being out-play so badly in those indicators.
In other words more random big time luck for Chiefs.
According to my PR which measure such things Denver should of won that game by 18.39 points, that's how badly Chiefs were out-played by Broncos.
That 21.39 diff to actual score is the largest amount by far of any game this season, in other words more big time random luck for Chiefs.
Now we add in a OT game for Chiefs, coming off a huge divisional very meaningful game and a huge divisional very meaning full game on Deck VS the disivision leader and this game sandwhich in-between those 2 games VS a NFC opponent which does not play into tie-breakers and not nearly the same meaningful game.
Falcons have out-rushed opp by 100 yards on the year while Chiefs have been out-rushed by 270 yards on year.
Don't see how anyone could like KC in this game.
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According to football reference Falcons played the toughest schedule in league at +2.3, Chiefs .1 , a 2.2 diff.
Chiefs are 5-2 in 1 score close wins, Falcons 3-3. Random events are close wins and that is the only reason Chiefs have the better record, randomness.
Falcons darwf Chiefs in every major indicator, they are not just better but better by huge amounts. Except yards per point which favors the Chiefs by a large amount.
VS Denver Chiefs were not just beaten badly but destoried in the major indicators, lost QBPR by 45 points,. lost the ave per pass by almost 5 yards per pass, if you looked back at past 50 years of games one could count on one hand the number of times a team won being out-play so badly in those indicators.
In other words more random big time luck for Chiefs.
According to my PR which measure such things Denver should of won that game by 18.39 points, that's how badly Chiefs were out-played by Broncos.
That 21.39 diff to actual score is the largest amount by far of any game this season, in other words more big time random luck for Chiefs.
Now we add in a OT game for Chiefs, coming off a huge divisional very meaningful game and a huge divisional very meaning full game on Deck VS the disivision leader and this game sandwhich in-between those 2 games VS a NFC opponent which does not play into tie-breakers and not nearly the same meaningful game.
Falcons have out-rushed opp by 100 yards on the year while Chiefs have been out-rushed by 270 yards on year.
Coming off a thrilling last second comeback against a division rival which ended up taking them through almost an entire overtime session which they won in mile high on the road. Now off to another time zone still on the road to play a stout opponent. They will do all this with the weight on their minds that they play just days later at home on primetime against their arch nemesis in the biggest game of their season so far for the division lead.
Yup they should be completely fresh and focused and should definitely steamroll the lowly Falcons, an awful home team.
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Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:
Coming off a thrilling last second comeback against a division rival which ended up taking them through almost an entire overtime session which they won in mile high on the road. Now off to another time zone still on the road to play a stout opponent. They will do all this with the weight on their minds that they play just days later at home on primetime against their arch nemesis in the biggest game of their season so far for the division lead.
Yup they should be completely fresh and focused and should definitely steamroll the lowly Falcons, an awful home team.
OK, I was able to run the system program with a line of Falcons -4, and of course this might and probably will change as the week progresses, but what I found is interesting, and it contradicts my gut instinct and knowledge. According to the system, the Chiefs would be a very poor pick, and it appears that the Falcons pick would be good indeed but it is also tempered by a number of other metrics. So to analyze this properly, I would not be inclined at this first glance to pick the Falcons -4 ... BUT I can tell you with CERTAINTY that after looking at this I would DEFINITELY NOT pick the Chiefs. Hope that helps ... probably not much as you all figured this out already LOL ... but now, as it usually goes in football, watch the Chiefs go into Atlanta and leave the town in shambles like General Sherman did ... anyway, no Chiefs pick for me!
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OK, I was able to run the system program with a line of Falcons -4, and of course this might and probably will change as the week progresses, but what I found is interesting, and it contradicts my gut instinct and knowledge. According to the system, the Chiefs would be a very poor pick, and it appears that the Falcons pick would be good indeed but it is also tempered by a number of other metrics. So to analyze this properly, I would not be inclined at this first glance to pick the Falcons -4 ... BUT I can tell you with CERTAINTY that after looking at this I would DEFINITELY NOT pick the Chiefs. Hope that helps ... probably not much as you all figured this out already LOL ... but now, as it usually goes in football, watch the Chiefs go into Atlanta and leave the town in shambles like General Sherman did ... anyway, no Chiefs pick for me!
It's the situational spot of the year. Letdown meets lookahead: KC played five full quarters on SNF at Denver, now they travel to Atlanta to play an interconference game before playing the Raiders on TNF. Atlanta was at home for the last three weeks.
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It's the situational spot of the year. Letdown meets lookahead: KC played five full quarters on SNF at Denver, now they travel to Atlanta to play an interconference game before playing the Raiders on TNF. Atlanta was at home for the last three weeks.
It's the situational spot of the year. Letdown meets lookahead: KC played five full quarters on SNF at Denver, now they travel to Atlanta to play an interconference game before playing the Raiders on TNF. Atlanta was at home for the last three weeks.
In the last year:
Teams off OT are 37% SU and 34% ATS (n=38)
Since the beginning of the 2014 season:
Teams off LOSING in OT are 29% SU and 26% ATS (n=38)
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
It's the situational spot of the year. Letdown meets lookahead: KC played five full quarters on SNF at Denver, now they travel to Atlanta to play an interconference game before playing the Raiders on TNF. Atlanta was at home for the last three weeks.
In the last year:
Teams off OT are 37% SU and 34% ATS (n=38)
Since the beginning of the 2014 season:
Teams off LOSING in OT are 29% SU and 26% ATS (n=38)
It's the situational spot of the year. Letdown meets lookahead: KC played five full quarters on SNF at Denver, now they travel to Atlanta to play an interconference game before playing the Raiders on TNF. Atlanta was at home for the last three weeks.
Agree100%
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
It's the situational spot of the year. Letdown meets lookahead: KC played five full quarters on SNF at Denver, now they travel to Atlanta to play an interconference game before playing the Raiders on TNF. Atlanta was at home for the last three weeks.
According to football reference Falcons played the toughest schedule in league at +2.3, Chiefs .1 , a 2.2 diff.
Chiefs are 5-2 in 1 score close wins, Falcons 3-3. Random events are close wins and that is the only reason Chiefs have the better record, randomness.
Falcons darwf Chiefs in every major indicator, they are not just better but better by huge amounts. Except yards per point which favors the Chiefs by a large amount.
VS Denver Chiefs were not just beaten badly but destoried in the major indicators, lost QBPR by 45 points,. lost the ave per pass by almost 5 yards per pass, if you looked back at past 50 years of games one could count on one hand the number of times a team won being out-play so badly in those indicators.
In other words more random big time luck for Chiefs.
According to my PR which measure such things Denver should of won that game by 18.39 points, that's how badly Chiefs were out-played by Broncos.
That 21.39 diff to actual score is the largest amount by far of any game this season, in other words more big time random luck for Chiefs.
Now we add in a OT game for Chiefs, coming off a huge divisional very meaningful game and a huge divisional very meaning full game on Deck VS the disivision leader and this game sandwhich in-between those 2 games VS a NFC opponent which does not play into tie-breakers and not nearly the same meaningful game.
Falcons have out-rushed opp by 100 yards on the year while Chiefs have been out-rushed by 270 yards on year.
Don't see how anyone could like KC in this game.
Absolutely. Based on NYPPA, I came up with a score of 32-10.
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
According to football reference Falcons played the toughest schedule in league at +2.3, Chiefs .1 , a 2.2 diff.
Chiefs are 5-2 in 1 score close wins, Falcons 3-3. Random events are close wins and that is the only reason Chiefs have the better record, randomness.
Falcons darwf Chiefs in every major indicator, they are not just better but better by huge amounts. Except yards per point which favors the Chiefs by a large amount.
VS Denver Chiefs were not just beaten badly but destoried in the major indicators, lost QBPR by 45 points,. lost the ave per pass by almost 5 yards per pass, if you looked back at past 50 years of games one could count on one hand the number of times a team won being out-play so badly in those indicators.
In other words more random big time luck for Chiefs.
According to my PR which measure such things Denver should of won that game by 18.39 points, that's how badly Chiefs were out-played by Broncos.
That 21.39 diff to actual score is the largest amount by far of any game this season, in other words more big time random luck for Chiefs.
Now we add in a OT game for Chiefs, coming off a huge divisional very meaningful game and a huge divisional very meaning full game on Deck VS the disivision leader and this game sandwhich in-between those 2 games VS a NFC opponent which does not play into tie-breakers and not nearly the same meaningful game.
Falcons have out-rushed opp by 100 yards on the year while Chiefs have been out-rushed by 270 yards on year.
Don't see how anyone could like KC in this game.
Absolutely. Based on NYPPA, I came up with a score of 32-10.
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