I looked at this Pitt game every which way to hit the Bengals +(waiting on 3 or higher). Partially it was Pitt seemingly not playing at the level I thought they were at previously the last couple weeks. On the Cincy side, McCarron came in, and he's been winning games and thought it was a ripe spot for a home doggie in the playoffs.
I wound up pounding Pitt -2.5 instead. Idk, McCarron is no dog. He isn't gonna self destruct and blow the game himself, and they have had decent game plans on how they used him(for chunks of games before teams figure it out), but reality is since McCarron took over, they have been Outgained every single game. Smoke n mirrors with the young kid can only go so far.
So I tried my hardest to make a play on Cincy, but ultimately went Pitt -2.5. Playoffs and I'm gonna fade Big Ben over a kid making his 4th career start. Gotta pass on that.
Pitt Seattle. Two road faves in playoffs.
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I looked at this Pitt game every which way to hit the Bengals +(waiting on 3 or higher). Partially it was Pitt seemingly not playing at the level I thought they were at previously the last couple weeks. On the Cincy side, McCarron came in, and he's been winning games and thought it was a ripe spot for a home doggie in the playoffs.
I wound up pounding Pitt -2.5 instead. Idk, McCarron is no dog. He isn't gonna self destruct and blow the game himself, and they have had decent game plans on how they used him(for chunks of games before teams figure it out), but reality is since McCarron took over, they have been Outgained every single game. Smoke n mirrors with the young kid can only go so far.
So I tried my hardest to make a play on Cincy, but ultimately went Pitt -2.5. Playoffs and I'm gonna fade Big Ben over a kid making his 4th career start. Gotta pass on that.
KC/HOU - Think HOU D is playing better than KC right now. I watched KC last week and Hali played only on 3rd downs with a club on his broken hand and did nothing. Houston has been out 6 weeks. If he's back here how good will he be? Houston's defense is just scary right now. They put artificial turf down in that stadium this year and they are just flying off the line of scrimmage.
KC won here 27-20 in Week 1 but Houston had two turnovers that resulted in 7 and 13 yard drive TDs for KC early in that one. HOU had 24 FD and 398 yards in that game despite playing Mallett and Hoyer and not knowing what they were on offense. KC's drives in that game were 37 yards, 13, 83, 66, 22, 7, -1, 9, 15, 25, 24, 9, and 24 with Jamaal Charles and vs a HOU D that is nowhere as good as they are now. I know HOU O isn't great by any means but I'll take 3.5 at home all day here. And who wants to bet Andy Reid as a road fav in a big game?
PIT/CIN - Think I'll pop the Bengals at 3. I like McCarron a lot. He has a better rating than Ben this year. Roethislberger had the yards but only 21 TD with 16 INT. Not really that great. Bengals have the infinitely better defense too. Ryan freaking Mallett completely 68% for 274 yards and a 95 rating on this awful secondary with no WR and having been with the team for about two weeks. I have no concerns McCarron can do the same or better with way better weapons. I'm not sure why but I'm way down on PIT. I think they are that classic big time pass team that everyone gets goo-goo-eyed over. Those teams usually get popped in the mouth. These guys had a virtual playoff game against the Ravens too weeks ago and sucked it up.
SEA/MIN - No clue. Interested to hear your thoughts. This is going to be one of the coldest games in NFL history. High temp of -1 and wind chill of -25 forecast. No sure who or what that favors.
GB/WSH - Packers are a banger for me. Washington is a phony and we have hyperinflation. Two weeks ago GB is 3.5 or 4 here. I've bet Washington a handful of times this year. They are a nice team. But they can't be favs over a superior team. Washington's defense is plain awful. Might be one of the worst to ever make the playoffs. 31st in run efficiency and 26th vs the pass. They have Cary Williams and DeAngelo Hall playing CB and hands down the worst safeties in the league. GB's WR have struggled in big TV games vs really strong secondaries lately but they won't here.
Interested to hear your thoughts this week buddy.
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Hope things are going well. My initial thoughts:
KC/HOU - Think HOU D is playing better than KC right now. I watched KC last week and Hali played only on 3rd downs with a club on his broken hand and did nothing. Houston has been out 6 weeks. If he's back here how good will he be? Houston's defense is just scary right now. They put artificial turf down in that stadium this year and they are just flying off the line of scrimmage.
KC won here 27-20 in Week 1 but Houston had two turnovers that resulted in 7 and 13 yard drive TDs for KC early in that one. HOU had 24 FD and 398 yards in that game despite playing Mallett and Hoyer and not knowing what they were on offense. KC's drives in that game were 37 yards, 13, 83, 66, 22, 7, -1, 9, 15, 25, 24, 9, and 24 with Jamaal Charles and vs a HOU D that is nowhere as good as they are now. I know HOU O isn't great by any means but I'll take 3.5 at home all day here. And who wants to bet Andy Reid as a road fav in a big game?
PIT/CIN - Think I'll pop the Bengals at 3. I like McCarron a lot. He has a better rating than Ben this year. Roethislberger had the yards but only 21 TD with 16 INT. Not really that great. Bengals have the infinitely better defense too. Ryan freaking Mallett completely 68% for 274 yards and a 95 rating on this awful secondary with no WR and having been with the team for about two weeks. I have no concerns McCarron can do the same or better with way better weapons. I'm not sure why but I'm way down on PIT. I think they are that classic big time pass team that everyone gets goo-goo-eyed over. Those teams usually get popped in the mouth. These guys had a virtual playoff game against the Ravens too weeks ago and sucked it up.
SEA/MIN - No clue. Interested to hear your thoughts. This is going to be one of the coldest games in NFL history. High temp of -1 and wind chill of -25 forecast. No sure who or what that favors.
GB/WSH - Packers are a banger for me. Washington is a phony and we have hyperinflation. Two weeks ago GB is 3.5 or 4 here. I've bet Washington a handful of times this year. They are a nice team. But they can't be favs over a superior team. Washington's defense is plain awful. Might be one of the worst to ever make the playoffs. 31st in run efficiency and 26th vs the pass. They have Cary Williams and DeAngelo Hall playing CB and hands down the worst safeties in the league. GB's WR have struggled in big TV games vs really strong secondaries lately but they won't here.
I looked at this Pitt game every which way to hit the Bengals +(waiting on 3 or higher). Partially it was Pitt seemingly not playing at the level I thought they were at previously the last couple weeks. On the Cincy side, McCarron came in, and he's been winning games and thought it was a ripe spot for a home doggie in the playoffs.
I wound up pounding Pitt -2.5 instead. Idk, McCarron is no dog. He isn't gonna self destruct and blow the game himself, and they have had decent game plans on how they used him(for chunks of games before teams figure it out), but reality is since McCarron took over, they have been Outgained every single game. Smoke n mirrors with the young kid can only go so far.
So I tried my hardest to make a play on Cincy, but ultimately went Pitt -2.5. Playoffs and I'm gonna fade Big Ben over a kid making his 4th career start. Gotta pass on that.
Pitt Seattle. Two road faves in playoffs.
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
I looked at this Pitt game every which way to hit the Bengals +(waiting on 3 or higher). Partially it was Pitt seemingly not playing at the level I thought they were at previously the last couple weeks. On the Cincy side, McCarron came in, and he's been winning games and thought it was a ripe spot for a home doggie in the playoffs.
I wound up pounding Pitt -2.5 instead. Idk, McCarron is no dog. He isn't gonna self destruct and blow the game himself, and they have had decent game plans on how they used him(for chunks of games before teams figure it out), but reality is since McCarron took over, they have been Outgained every single game. Smoke n mirrors with the young kid can only go so far.
So I tried my hardest to make a play on Cincy, but ultimately went Pitt -2.5. Playoffs and I'm gonna fade Big Ben over a kid making his 4th career start. Gotta pass on that.
Appreciate the support and well wishes. ALL of you guys are in a small crew of regular posters that I make sure to read your threads each and every week. Appreciate all the work/info/insight you guys bring to the table and BOL this upcoming playoff season!
Appreciate the support and well wishes. ALL of you guys are in a small crew of regular posters that I make sure to read your threads each and every week. Appreciate all the work/info/insight you guys bring to the table and BOL this upcoming playoff season!
EarthWake, hey buddy. That brutal cold weather worries me a bit in Seattle, but I think they still figure out a way to overcome the wind and cold to do their thing. I hate when the playoffs come and the weather and elements screw things up. I gotta think that the brutal cold and wind is an advantage for Minny as they rely on the run a bit more than Seattle. Not that Seattle isn't a hardcore running team, but they do a lot more in the air especially of late with Wilson playing out of his mind and crazy wind is gonna neuter that a bit. Still see a Seattle dominant 23-7 kind of win though.
When I saw Seattle come out 100% against Arizona, I thought coach Carroll was making a huge mistake. 1, zona recently went into Seattle and had their way with them. If Zona went and beat them up again, was that the way u want to send your team into the playoffs? A second beating, take away all the momentum of a strong Seattle second half, and then get beat down a second time against a team u might be playing again in two weeks?? 2, possible injuries on a team that outside of RB is fairly healthy.
And boy was I wrong. Carroll's decision to bring it to Arizona and Seattles performance last Sunday. What a way to send your squad into the playoffs!
Earth, I'm interested in your thoughts on KC -3. I lean super super strong on Houston(hoping to see +4 or even +4.5 by kickoff).
GL this weekend, buddy!
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EarthWake, hey buddy. That brutal cold weather worries me a bit in Seattle, but I think they still figure out a way to overcome the wind and cold to do their thing. I hate when the playoffs come and the weather and elements screw things up. I gotta think that the brutal cold and wind is an advantage for Minny as they rely on the run a bit more than Seattle. Not that Seattle isn't a hardcore running team, but they do a lot more in the air especially of late with Wilson playing out of his mind and crazy wind is gonna neuter that a bit. Still see a Seattle dominant 23-7 kind of win though.
When I saw Seattle come out 100% against Arizona, I thought coach Carroll was making a huge mistake. 1, zona recently went into Seattle and had their way with them. If Zona went and beat them up again, was that the way u want to send your team into the playoffs? A second beating, take away all the momentum of a strong Seattle second half, and then get beat down a second time against a team u might be playing again in two weeks?? 2, possible injuries on a team that outside of RB is fairly healthy.
And boy was I wrong. Carroll's decision to bring it to Arizona and Seattles performance last Sunday. What a way to send your squad into the playoffs!
Earth, I'm interested in your thoughts on KC -3. I lean super super strong on Houston(hoping to see +4 or even +4.5 by kickoff).
Against you on the Steelers game, but wish you the best of luck this week buddy!
Can't wait to pop into your thread and read your thoughts on the games. Like I said earlier, initially I was strongly leaning Cincinnati for a dozen reasons(I'm gonna break things down before the weekend if I get a chance), but wound up going Pitt last second. Looks to be a washout with rain too which makes it even tougher for Pitt. End of the day, in a almost pickem spot, in the PLAYOFFS, I had to go Big Ben over a kid making his 4th career start in the NFL.
Honestly though, out of the 4 games, that's the one I'm the least confident in.
GL man!!
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
Against you on the Steelers game, but wish you the best of luck this week buddy!
Can't wait to pop into your thread and read your thoughts on the games. Like I said earlier, initially I was strongly leaning Cincinnati for a dozen reasons(I'm gonna break things down before the weekend if I get a chance), but wound up going Pitt last second. Looks to be a washout with rain too which makes it even tougher for Pitt. End of the day, in a almost pickem spot, in the PLAYOFFS, I had to go Big Ben over a kid making his 4th career start in the NFL.
Honestly though, out of the 4 games, that's the one I'm the least confident in.
Agree 100% on Houston. Just waiting for that to creep up a bit. Their defense is playing amazing, and I just don't think that KC will be able to do much against them. KC is overall a pretty solid team, but IMO at the same time, I think they are the most overrated squad coming into the playoffs. They have been Outgained 4 of the last 6 games(won them all). On this giant winning streak, seems like they pull a pk6 or giant turnover to pull a cover out of their a$$ every single game. They got Detroit before they turned things around. SD at their worst. Denver in a game Manning got hurt and threw 11 interceptions. Got Pitt with their 3rd string QB. Last month against Oakland, I think Carr threw 3 pick 6 in a 7 minute span in the 4th quarter to pull a win and cover there. Against Baltimore a few weeks ago, the events that happened to give them a 3TD win a game they could/should have lost.
Now at some point, you gotta give credit to the team. They are playing good solid physical SMART football. They are making things happen on both sides of the ball, whether it's the game changing pk6 or the big play on offense to build a lead. But IDK, from the somewhat easy schedule, luckily getting team after team at their worst, the big breaks, the game changing turnovers.....I just don't think they are as good as people believe. If Houston plays clean, I think they grind them out and win this in front of the home crowd.
Weather is bugging me in the Seattle game. Who the hell knows how that wind and -20 degree temps with wind chill is gonna effect the heart of the players. It's certainly gonna slow down a Seattle offense who is ROLLING the last couple months as they do like to run, but aren't quite as one dimensional as Minny is. Line just dropped to -4.5 and I'm guessing it's the weather and that's understandable. Wish I didn't jump so early. I was just afraid that -5.5 would be -7 if I snoozed.
My initial thought was Washington over a struggling Green Bay, but I think I'm gonna wind up hitting Green Bay. Yes, GB has a million problems on offense, but if there is anything in the world that can get a struggling offense on track, it's arguably the best QB on the planet going against a flat out AWFUL defense. Cousins gonna have a lot of pressure on his back. Might come out stiff. Dom Capers should have a helluva gameplan to slow down the young QB. I know people are REALLY down on Rodgers right now, but look at his overall numbers. Considering the lack of protection, always being on the run, the lack of a consistent running game.....I can't think of many QB who could post those numbers and lead this team to 10 wins. A-rod will be on point and I don't foresee him trying to do "too much" like he's done the last couple weeks in leading to some big mistakes(forcing the ball into some bad INTs, and fumbling for giant scoring plays). Again, looks like the weather will be effecting this game as rain in the forecast. That's 3 NFL a playoff games being bothered by bad weather. Bugs me, but considering both of these teams...don't think a rainy afternoon helps or hinders either team much.
Pitt game....ill break down a little more later in the week. Got to run right now. I'm starting to really second guess taking Pitt though. And another game the weather is a factor. And again I believe it's bothering the team I bet.
Andy, good luck buddy. Appreciate you popping in with your thoughts!
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Andarmac99 Great stuff man.
Agree 100% on Houston. Just waiting for that to creep up a bit. Their defense is playing amazing, and I just don't think that KC will be able to do much against them. KC is overall a pretty solid team, but IMO at the same time, I think they are the most overrated squad coming into the playoffs. They have been Outgained 4 of the last 6 games(won them all). On this giant winning streak, seems like they pull a pk6 or giant turnover to pull a cover out of their a$$ every single game. They got Detroit before they turned things around. SD at their worst. Denver in a game Manning got hurt and threw 11 interceptions. Got Pitt with their 3rd string QB. Last month against Oakland, I think Carr threw 3 pick 6 in a 7 minute span in the 4th quarter to pull a win and cover there. Against Baltimore a few weeks ago, the events that happened to give them a 3TD win a game they could/should have lost.
Now at some point, you gotta give credit to the team. They are playing good solid physical SMART football. They are making things happen on both sides of the ball, whether it's the game changing pk6 or the big play on offense to build a lead. But IDK, from the somewhat easy schedule, luckily getting team after team at their worst, the big breaks, the game changing turnovers.....I just don't think they are as good as people believe. If Houston plays clean, I think they grind them out and win this in front of the home crowd.
Weather is bugging me in the Seattle game. Who the hell knows how that wind and -20 degree temps with wind chill is gonna effect the heart of the players. It's certainly gonna slow down a Seattle offense who is ROLLING the last couple months as they do like to run, but aren't quite as one dimensional as Minny is. Line just dropped to -4.5 and I'm guessing it's the weather and that's understandable. Wish I didn't jump so early. I was just afraid that -5.5 would be -7 if I snoozed.
My initial thought was Washington over a struggling Green Bay, but I think I'm gonna wind up hitting Green Bay. Yes, GB has a million problems on offense, but if there is anything in the world that can get a struggling offense on track, it's arguably the best QB on the planet going against a flat out AWFUL defense. Cousins gonna have a lot of pressure on his back. Might come out stiff. Dom Capers should have a helluva gameplan to slow down the young QB. I know people are REALLY down on Rodgers right now, but look at his overall numbers. Considering the lack of protection, always being on the run, the lack of a consistent running game.....I can't think of many QB who could post those numbers and lead this team to 10 wins. A-rod will be on point and I don't foresee him trying to do "too much" like he's done the last couple weeks in leading to some big mistakes(forcing the ball into some bad INTs, and fumbling for giant scoring plays). Again, looks like the weather will be effecting this game as rain in the forecast. That's 3 NFL a playoff games being bothered by bad weather. Bugs me, but considering both of these teams...don't think a rainy afternoon helps or hinders either team much.
Pitt game....ill break down a little more later in the week. Got to run right now. I'm starting to really second guess taking Pitt though. And another game the weather is a factor. And again I believe it's bothering the team I bet.
Andy, good luck buddy. Appreciate you popping in with your thoughts!
Yeah I am not too thrilled about the cold weather but it doesn't really worry me. If anything I might add the under on top of Minnesota TT under.
I really like this game a lot as I know a lot about both teams. I have been on the Vikings a lot this year and think they are a very solid football team, but are no match for Seattle in the playoffs. Seattle will be able to stack the box and make them very one dimensional. I really like AP, but he will need to have the game of his life for them to win. One brutal hit from the Hawks defense + the cold and I think AP will get alittle rattled. I fully expect Seattle to dominate and expect Lynch to go all out this postseason. This is probably his last run and he will leave it all on the field. If you are thinking of betting against Seattle, let me remind you of this.
Russell Wilson is 6-2 in the playoffs. His only two losses, he brought his team back from down 27-7 in the final 16 minutes to take a 28-27 lead, only to lose 30-28...And ofcourse last years Superbowl. The playoffs are where Russell Wilson and the Hawks shine, no matter if the public is on them or not.
As for the KC game it is mainly a fade of Houston. I simply do not think they are a good football team, at all. Their best win this year was at home vs Jets and only made the playoffs because of their terrible division. KC is playing great football and to me is the better team. I don't see the Texans putting up enough points to win this game. Take away Watt and Nuke and this team is not good. I just have a lot of trust in KC and none at all in Houston. If Brian Hoyer can go out and win a playoff game with an average team around him against a team on a 10 game win streak, I will take my loss.
goodluck glyde.
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Yeah I am not too thrilled about the cold weather but it doesn't really worry me. If anything I might add the under on top of Minnesota TT under.
I really like this game a lot as I know a lot about both teams. I have been on the Vikings a lot this year and think they are a very solid football team, but are no match for Seattle in the playoffs. Seattle will be able to stack the box and make them very one dimensional. I really like AP, but he will need to have the game of his life for them to win. One brutal hit from the Hawks defense + the cold and I think AP will get alittle rattled. I fully expect Seattle to dominate and expect Lynch to go all out this postseason. This is probably his last run and he will leave it all on the field. If you are thinking of betting against Seattle, let me remind you of this.
Russell Wilson is 6-2 in the playoffs. His only two losses, he brought his team back from down 27-7 in the final 16 minutes to take a 28-27 lead, only to lose 30-28...And ofcourse last years Superbowl. The playoffs are where Russell Wilson and the Hawks shine, no matter if the public is on them or not.
As for the KC game it is mainly a fade of Houston. I simply do not think they are a good football team, at all. Their best win this year was at home vs Jets and only made the playoffs because of their terrible division. KC is playing great football and to me is the better team. I don't see the Texans putting up enough points to win this game. Take away Watt and Nuke and this team is not good. I just have a lot of trust in KC and none at all in Houston. If Brian Hoyer can go out and win a playoff game with an average team around him against a team on a 10 game win streak, I will take my loss.
I was actually upset when Seattle blew out Arizona last week. I was hoping to get really good odds going into the postseason. Even if Seattle would have lost 38-0 last week I would have A LOT of confidence in them. I know what this team is made of.
I also really do like Arizona and think they are the only team in the NFC that can knock off Seattle. If/when they do play each other I will be on Seattle, but not nearly as big as I am this week or next week at Carolina.
That will be a fking ballgame, very similar to SF vs Seattle in the NFC championship game two years ago. I would be absolutely stunned if these two teams don't match up to go to the SB.
The line at my book (betonline) opened at Seattle -3 vs Vikings, then quickly went to -5.5, now went back to 4.5 with the ML going from -250 to -210.
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I was actually upset when Seattle blew out Arizona last week. I was hoping to get really good odds going into the postseason. Even if Seattle would have lost 38-0 last week I would have A LOT of confidence in them. I know what this team is made of.
I also really do like Arizona and think they are the only team in the NFC that can knock off Seattle. If/when they do play each other I will be on Seattle, but not nearly as big as I am this week or next week at Carolina.
That will be a fking ballgame, very similar to SF vs Seattle in the NFC championship game two years ago. I would be absolutely stunned if these two teams don't match up to go to the SB.
The line at my book (betonline) opened at Seattle -3 vs Vikings, then quickly went to -5.5, now went back to 4.5 with the ML going from -250 to -210.
Great stuff, Earth. Agree 100% with you on Seattle. I'll be riding them until the wheels fall off....again. GL with KC....I just don't like that team. If Houston's shows up, I don't see them moving the ball at all. Andy Reid is another reason. Assuming that line creeps to 3.5 or even 4. I can see KC holding a comfortable 20-10 lead and Reid going into prevent with 14 minutes left while playing safe on offense, eating up clock, and getting backdoored.
MacWestie, happy New Years buddy and great season u had in the pros!
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Great stuff, Earth. Agree 100% with you on Seattle. I'll be riding them until the wheels fall off....again. GL with KC....I just don't like that team. If Houston's shows up, I don't see them moving the ball at all. Andy Reid is another reason. Assuming that line creeps to 3.5 or even 4. I can see KC holding a comfortable 20-10 lead and Reid going into prevent with 14 minutes left while playing safe on offense, eating up clock, and getting backdoored.
MacWestie, happy New Years buddy and great season u had in the pros!
I have a feeling Wash winds up being -2 of -2.5 in the end, but my trigger finger is itchy and I locked up GB -1. Not the best or most disciplined move in regards to grabbing the best line especially after being cornholed with Seattle -5.5 and it dropping to -4, but there isn't much risk with the line hovering near a PK. Just wanted to lock it up already. The right move would probably be waiting until Sunday afternoon and grabbing GB ML +120 or so(assuming the line goes where I think), but it's been a long season, a long grind....at this point...ready to load em up and watch them play over wrangling over a few pennies.
Final card:
- Houston(waiting on it to tick up to at least 3.5).
- Pitt -2.5.
- Seattle -5.5.
- GB -1.
Little scary seeing 4 games first round of playoffs and all 4 games are road fav/home dog scenarios. Even scarier, I'm on 3 of the 4 road favs. The only game I'm really bent about is that Pitt game though. I locked Pitt as I didn't want to lose that -2.5, and was thinking Big Ben>kid making his 4th career start, but I'm really second guessing things. Good chance if it floats to 3.5, I juice out my Pitt bet and eat the $12.50 vig while having a shot at a middle. Gotta see how things develop though. For now, it's Pitt -2.5 with very low confidence in the play.
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I have a feeling Wash winds up being -2 of -2.5 in the end, but my trigger finger is itchy and I locked up GB -1. Not the best or most disciplined move in regards to grabbing the best line especially after being cornholed with Seattle -5.5 and it dropping to -4, but there isn't much risk with the line hovering near a PK. Just wanted to lock it up already. The right move would probably be waiting until Sunday afternoon and grabbing GB ML +120 or so(assuming the line goes where I think), but it's been a long season, a long grind....at this point...ready to load em up and watch them play over wrangling over a few pennies.
Final card:
- Houston(waiting on it to tick up to at least 3.5).
- Pitt -2.5.
- Seattle -5.5.
- GB -1.
Little scary seeing 4 games first round of playoffs and all 4 games are road fav/home dog scenarios. Even scarier, I'm on 3 of the 4 road favs. The only game I'm really bent about is that Pitt game though. I locked Pitt as I didn't want to lose that -2.5, and was thinking Big Ben>kid making his 4th career start, but I'm really second guessing things. Good chance if it floats to 3.5, I juice out my Pitt bet and eat the $12.50 vig while having a shot at a middle. Gotta see how things develop though. For now, it's Pitt -2.5 with very low confidence in the play.
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